UNITED STATES TAKE GLOBAL LEAD IN REPUDIATION OF "ONE-CHINA POLICY"

 Geopolitical dynamics in play in 2022 dictate strong imperatives for the United States to give a global lead in repudiation of the "One China Policy" mistakenly perceived and   adopted since 1972. In the wake of this policy, China has emerged not only as the 'Prime Threat' to US national security but also has emboldened China to contest United States traditional strategic predominance in the Indo Pacific.

The spillover from the above has tempted China to aggressive brinkmanship and conflict on all of China's peripheries from India's Eastern Ladakh borders with China Occupied Tibet to South China Sea.

Repudiation of "One China Policy" by United States would set in motion similar diplomatic de-recognition of "One China Policy" an  lead to full recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign independent nation.

What can China do in the wake of United States repudiation of the "One China Policy" with other nations too following the US lead?

Can China go to war on this count  against the United States  and other countries doing so similarly?

China in 2022, long pointed by me since 2015, is strategically besieged both externally and internally. China has by its aggressive actions is virtually isolated diplomatically. Major Nations of the Indo Pacific are in "diplomatic sufferance" of China sheerly because of United States strategic ambiguities on China.

China's economy is no longer vibrant and possibly downslide  further due to broken supply chains and loss of confidence in China's economic credibility especially as after-effects of China not owning up on Wuhan Virus 19 emanating from biological warfare experiments political power struggle from Wuhan laboratories.

China's domestic upheavals can be predicted arising from possible economic miseries and domestic political power struggles challenging President Xi Jinping.

Contextually therefore China is in no position to go to war on the question of repudiation  by United States of the "One China Policy".

Concluding it needs emphasis that China in decades post-1972 was all along "boxing much above its strategic weight" due United States policies of 'China Hedging" and 'Risk Aversion'. United States by doing so has enabled emergence of China as a demonic aggressive Power with Hitlerian impulses. High time the United States "DE-THRONES"China for its own good and security.

UNITED STATES SHOULD NOT BE STRATEGICALLY DISTRACTED FROM INDO PACIFIC BY UKRAINE WAR

Russia's invasion of Ukraine underway should not lead United States to repeat its historical mistake of the first decade of 21st Century wherein its strategic distractions in Afghanistan and Iraq, in the vacuum so created, facilitated China to build up its Blue Water Navy and predatory dominance over South China perceptions--- both moves creating perceptions of United States as a Declining Power.

China's recent strategic forays deep down in South Pacific Island Nations is a stark reminder how China exploits strategic inattentiveness. United States and Australia had taken for granted that the South Pacific is their area of influence.

China in 2022 has thus acquired monstrous and menacing monstrous military profile, so much so, that it now feels emboldened not only to coerce US Allies and Strategic Partners in Indo Pacific, but also strong enough to directly challenge United States predominance.

US President Biden's recent statements that the United States would focus more on European security amounts to wrong political signalling to both China and to QUAD partners of United States in Indo Pacific. 

China would very much welcome diversion of US strategic focus from Indo Pacific security China-centric challenges to Europe. China would also welcome even the US strategic focus to be divided between Indo Pacific and Europe.

In both cases above US strategic focus, fully or divided, offers China military bandwidth to expand China's military signatures in the Indo Pacific. 

China's recent predatory moves in South Pacific evidently highlights how strategic vacuums enable China to gain strategically.

The United States should leave the 'Defence of Europe' to European Nations  and  goad  'Free Riders' like Germany riding on US security commitments to Europe, to shoulder European security load.

Concluding, it is my assessment that there is and should not be any predicament for United States to choose between European Security and Indo Pacific Security. In the third decade of 21st Century, it is China and its menacing predatory moves in Indo Pacific that vitally threaten US National Security in the coming decades.

QUAD SECURITY DIALOGUE GROUPING SHOULD BE ENLARGED TO QUAD PLUS 3 POST-UKRAINE

Russia's invasion of Ukraine this year not only has endangered European security but significantly creates graver implications for Indo Pacific security   necessitating QUAD to be enlarged by admitting South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia as members of QUAD.

Maintaining that Russian invasion of Ukraine was a Europe-centric security threat not impacting Indo Pacific security would be strategically incorrect. Russia has a seaboard on the Pacific Ocean around Vladivostok and in proximity to South Korea and Japan.

 Russia is also in a Virtual Military Alliance with China which poses exponential threats to Indo  Pacific security. Russian and Chinese strategic convergences focus intensely in 2022 to prompt US military exit from Western Pacific.

Increasingly visible in 2022 are joint Fighter Aircraft  Combat Patrols of Chinese and Russian Air Force in close proximity of Japan and South Korea.  

 Also visible is Chinese Air  Force Fighter aircraft 'buzzing' provocatively  US Air Force, Canadian Air Force and Australian Air Force surveillance planes on routine patrols over South China Sea international airspace.

All of the above are provocatively hostile activities  by a belligerent China and now a belligerent Russia post-Ukraine both in challenging confrontational postures against United States- led QUAD countries.  

The enlarged threat to Indo Pacific security releases urgent imperatives to enlarge the membership of QUAD. 

I would strongly recommend that QUAD be enlarged  to QUAD Plus 3 to include South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia. All of these three countries have pivotal strategic locations in Indo Pacific with special reference to Western Pacific and South East Asia ---all crucial to Indo Pacific security.

JAPAN'S SECURITY IMPERATIVES DICTATE FAST-TRACK NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARSENAL ACQUISITION

Japan's  volatile and unpredictable hostile security environment in 2022 with China, North Korea and Russia as adversarial nuclear powers creates inescapable security imperatives to acquire a fast-track acquisition of Nuclear Weapons Arsenal. Contextually, Japan's imperatives in 2022 outweigh the imperatives when I first advocated this imperative in 2002 and thereafter in my writings. 

Japan's imperatives to urgently acquire a Nuclear Weapons Arsenal becomes critical when viewed from the perspectives of Japan's security impacted by Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine with active but covert support of China. 

The emergence of Russia-China Axis was a foregone conclusion and this unholy Axis of  self-willed two Communist Dictators  with powerful military might and nuclear weapons arsenal coupled with their propensity to impose their will in their neighbour-hoods should be an eye-opener for Japanese leaders, Japanese policy establishment and the Japanese people.

When to the Russia-China Axis  Nuclear Weapons Arsenal is added the Nuclear Arsenal of theirs protege 'Rogue State' of North Korea, Japan should awaken to the nightmare of being cowed into submission by "Nuclear Blackmail" by Russia, China and North Korea. 

Japan's security is as it is plagued by territorial disputes with both Russia and China on its Northern and Southern extremities. North Korean missiles test firings overflying Japan is ample indicator of North Korean intentions.

Japan so far for decades has been relying on the US 'Nuclear Umbrella" for its security against nuclear threat from China and Russia. But as events in Ukraine's invasion by Russia and United States and NATO's timidity have amply indicated that Japan can no longer solely rely on United States for its security against nuclear threats by Russia, China and North Korea.

The United States should contextually welcome and encourage Japan acquiring a Nuclear Weapons Arsenal to redress the the Nuclear Weapons Arsenals in the Indo Pacific.

Concluding, as I well know from the 1980's when I was on a diplomatic assignment, Japan  was only a 'Screw Driver Turn"away in terms of developing Nuclear Weapons. In 2022, threatening nuclear blackmail by Russia, China and North Korea, place a higher call on Japanese Nation to shed its inhibitions and secure its future by developing a Nuclear Weapons Arsenal.

UNITED STATES "CHINA THREAT" CHALLENGE OPTIONS 2022--MANAGEMENT OR CONTAINMENT?

The "China Threat" to United States national security, security of US Allies in Western Pacific and to US strategic partners in Indo Pacific Region  has manifested itself in 2022 in decidedly threatening terms, short of war. The United States faces the stark choice in 2022 of adopting deterrent 'China Containment' strategies against an aggressive China or continuing with its ambiguity- muddling strategy of  'China Management'.

China's decidedly hostile confrontational stances were fully evident when China threw the military gauntlet against the United States by establishing Full Spectrum Dominance' over the South China Sea, indulged in political and military coercion of Japan and forcibly occupied Philippines and Vietnamese Islands in South China Sea and constantly threatening a military invasion of Taiwan

The latest Chinese military provocation against the United States is to threaten the invasion of Taiwan by hostile intrusion of Chinese Air Force Fighter Jets and Bombers in attacking formations, into Taiwanese air-space.

China stands emboldened to do so by United States timid military forbearance arising from decades of United States successive Administrations adopting the "China Management"  strategy premised on strategically inadvisable precepts of 'China Hedging'  and 'Risk Aversion'.

United States policy formulations and strategies premised on "China Management" have totally failed to deter China from threatening US 'Core Security Interests' in Indo Pacific Region. 

The US Policy establishment, if it has failed to join the dots of China's hostile intentions and military provocations against US national security interests and global influence, open themselves to charges of gross dereliction of protecting vital US security interests and denting US influence both in Indo Pacific and worldwide. 

The above then reinforces Chinese incessant propaganda that the United States is a "Declining Power"  and thereby denting US image as the reigning Superpower and a 'Nett Provider of Indo Pacific Security. 

Can the United States afford such an irreparable loss of its global image against a Revisionist Power like China? Should not United States in 2022 not seriously switch from its failed policies of 'China Management' to active "China Containment ? 

Concluding, all contemporary and unfolding indicators portend that a China emboldened into an ascendant trajectory by decades of US permissiveness on Chinese intents can now only be checkmated by United States with active "China Containment" policy. History beckons so.