INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : UNITED STATES TAKE GLOBAL LEAD IN REPUDIATION OF "ONE-CHINA POLICY"

Saturday, August 6, 2022

UNITED STATES TAKE GLOBAL LEAD IN REPUDIATION OF "ONE-CHINA POLICY"

Geopolitical dynamics in play in 2022 dictate strong imperatives for the United States to give a global lead in repudiation of the "One China Policy" mistakenly perceived and adopted since 1972. In the wake of this policy, China has emerged not only as the 'Prime Threat' to US national security but also has emboldened China to contest United States traditional strategic predominance in the Indo Pacific.

The spillover from the above has tempted China to aggressive brinkmanship and conflict on all of China's peripheries from India's Eastern Ladakh borders with China Occupied Tibet to South China Sea.

Repudiation of "One China Policy" by United States would set in motion similar diplomatic de-recognition of "One China Policy" an lead to full recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign independent nation.

What can China do in the wake of United States repudiation of the "One China Policy" with other nations too following the US lead?

Can China go to war on this count against the United States and other countries doing so similarly?

China in 2022, long pointed by me since 2015, is strategically besieged both externally and internally. China has by its aggressive actions is virtually isolated diplomatically. Major Nations of the Indo Pacific are in "diplomatic sufferance" of China sheerly because of United States strategic ambiguities on China.

China's economy is no longer vibrant and possibly downslide further due to broken supply chains and loss of confidence in China's economic credibility especially as after-effects of China not owning up on Wuhan Virus 19 emanating from biological warfare experiments political power struggle from Wuhan laboratories.

China's domestic upheavals can be predicted arising from possible economic miseries and domestic political power struggles challenging President Xi Jinping.

Contextually therefore China is in no position to go to war on the question of repudiation by United States of the "One China Policy".

Concluding it needs emphasis that China in decades post-1972 was all along "boxing much above its strategic weight" due United States policies of 'China Hedging" and 'Risk Aversion'. United States by doing so has enabled emergence of China as a demonic aggressive Power with Hitlerian impulses. High time the United States "DE-THRONES"China for its own good and security.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister