Friday, August 26, 2022

UNITED STATES-INDIA MILITARY ALLIANCE IS A STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE FOR INDIA IN 2020s CONTEXT

Geopolitical churning and strategic uncertainties generated by the institutionalizing of the Russia-China Axis post-Ukraine, has imposed a Cold War 2.0 Template on global security, and particularly of the Indo Pacific of which India is now a pivotal part.

Unlike Cold War 1.0 where India could revel under Nehruvian delusions of Non Alignment and indulge in moral pontifications to the world, that subterfuge for a non-assertive or 'Risk Aversion' foreign policy is no longer available in evolving Cold War 2.0 Template to India.

Contextually, the arenas of global flash-points during Cold War I.0 were distant from India. In the unfolding Cold War 2.0 scenario the global conflictual flash-points are right at India's doorsteps along the Himalayan Heights astride which an overly aggressive China sits menacingly.

India's Western Security Flank is a threatening flank with possibilities of a Two Front War imposed on India by the China-Pakistan Axis.

The Indian Ocean  which India traditionally predominated stands intruded by Chinese Navy, Chinese Navy submarines and China's sea-dominance being unfolded by access to China's debt-ridden States like Pakistan and Sri Lanka naval bases at Gwadur and Hambantota.

These threatening scenarios raises some crucial questions, namely, (1) Can India on her own defence capabilities without external involvement withstand China's strategic onslaught blueprint against India (2) Can India on her own naval might contend with China's aim to dominate India's sea-flanks? (3) Can India's policy establishment realistically not divine China's strategic blueprint to block India's rise as a Major Power?

Regrettably for India the answers to all of the above crucial questions vitally affecting India's sovereignty and security are in the "negative".

The fast-track military buildup and indigenous defence production initiated by the Modi Government would take another ten years to provide effective conventional deterrence. It has to first catch-up with ten years of "Neglect of India's War Preparedness" of Congress Governments 200-14.

In the context of desirability of military alliances as a bulwark against wayward and aggressive 'Revisionist Powers'the recent Ukraine Invasion by Russia becomes a quotable example. Would Russia have launched a massive invasion of Ukraine if it was a NATO Alliance member-State?

Concluding, when the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership has evolved in 2022 in visible contours of a 'Virtual Military Alliance' with integrated security mechanisms and with India part of QUAD and I2U2 , what holds back India from endowing the 'Virtual Military Alliance' with United States with the honorific of a "US-India Military Alliance"?

This is the realistic 'Strategic Option' for India whose geopolitical and strategic time has arrived. 

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