INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : UNITED STATES "CHINA THREAT" CHALLENGE OPTIONS 2022--MANAGEMENT OR CONTAINMENT?

Sunday, February 6, 2022

UNITED STATES "CHINA THREAT" CHALLENGE OPTIONS 2022--MANAGEMENT OR CONTAINMENT?

The "China Threat" to United States national security, security of US Allies in Western Pacific and to US strategic partners in Indo Pacific Region has manifested itself in 2022 in decidedly threatening terms, short of war. The United States faces the stark choice in 2022 of adopting deterrent 'China Containment' strategies against an aggressive China or continuing with its ambiguity- muddling strategy of 'China Management'.

China's decidedly hostile confrontational stances were fully evident when China threw the military gauntlet against the United States by establishing Full Spectrum Dominance' over the South China Sea, indulged in political and military coercion of Japan and forcibly occupied Philippines and Vietnamese Islands in South China Sea and constantly threatening a military invasion of Taiwan

The latest Chinese military provocation against the United States is to threaten the invasion of Taiwan by hostile intrusion of Chinese Air Force Fighter Jets and Bombers in attacking formations, into Taiwanese air-space.

China stands emboldened to do so by United States timid military forbearance arising from decades of United States successive Administrations adopting the "China Management" strategy premised on strategically inadvisable precepts of 'China Hedging' and 'Risk Aversion'.

United States policy formulations and strategies premised on "China Management" have totally failed to deter China from threatening US 'Core Security Interests' in Indo Pacific Region.

The US Policy establishment, if it has failed to join the dots of China's hostile intentions and military provocations against US national security interests and global influence, open themselves to charges of gross dereliction of protecting vital US security interests and denting US influence both in Indo Pacific and worldwide.

The above then reinforces Chinese incessant propaganda that the United States is a "Declining Power" and thereby denting US image as the reigning Superpower and a 'Nett Provider of Indo Pacific Security.

Can the United States afford such an irreparable loss of its global image against a Revisionist Power like China? Should not United States in 2022 not seriously switch from its failed policies of 'China Management' to active "China Containment ?

Concluding, all contemporary and unfolding indicators portend that a China emboldened into an ascendant trajectory by decades of US permissiveness on Chinese intents can now only be checkmated by United States with active "China Containment" policy. History beckons so.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister