TAIWAN'S AS INDEPENDENT NATION AN OVERIDING IMPERATIVE FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Indo Pacific Security in 2021 geopolitical context and perspectives likely to unfold in decades beyond dictate that it is an inescapable imperative for United States and its QUAD strategic partners to ensure that Taiwan continues as an independent Nation.

Taiwan's independence was compromised by the Nixon Adminstration in early 1970s under influence of his National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger.

 In a political outreach smacking of abject appeasement of Communist China to normalise relations with the United States the Nixon Adminstration conceded China's demand that United States make a policy declaration of "One China Two Systems".

Implicitly, the United States had conceded that China's sovereignty extended to Taiwan though Taiwan had a different political system.

In 2021, Communist China is not the Communist China of 1972 which was determined to play the China Card with the United States in order to square off against the Former USSR with which it had adversarial relations.

Despite US Adminstrations after President Nixon adhered to 'One China Policy' repetitively even after  Communist Chinese succeeding Beijing Regimes switched to adoption of 'Hard Power' strategies directed at undermining US National Security interests in Indo Pacific and those of US Alies and strategic partners.

Objectively theefore, with Communist China ceasing to be a 'Responsible Stakeholder' in Indo Pacific Security and global security , a strong case exists for United States to dispense with the premises that prompted it to give-in to Communist China's demands on Taiwan's status.

In 2021, Communist China has emerged as a "Serious & Potent Threat" to Indo Pacific Security and intent on imposing a hegemonistic 'Chinese Order' over Indo Pacific Region going by its demonstrated aggressive brinkmanship of the last decade.

The United States now has to urgently repudiate its 1972 policy declaration and assert that "Taiwan ia an Independent Nation" and that Taiwan's independence will be secured by international guarantees.

Major Powers of Indo Pacific seem to be already moving in this direction as evidenced by the recent Taiwan-Japan Dialogue.

Taiwan always figured in US military calculations as United States "Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier" in the Western Pacific. This truism is even far more significant in 2021 when China is provokingly using military coercion and intimidation by sizeable threatening intrusions in Taiwanese airspace.

Should China miscalculate United States determination on Taiwan and Taiwan is taken over by Chinese military intervention then the United States might as well exit from the Western Pacific.

United States making a military exit from Western Pacific consequent to China's take over of Taiwan would mark the final nail in the coffin of a 'Decline of United States as a Global Power'.

Would the Major Powers of the Indo Pacific and Nations partnering them countenance the eventuality of a United States exit from the Western Pacificand Indo Pacific as a whole?

Asian capitals when faced with a stark choice of supporting United States moves to assert 'Taiwan as an Independent Nation' or the prsospects of a China Hegemonistic Order' in Indo Pacific would undoubtedly support the United States.

China's retaliations in response to the Free World supporting Taiwan'sindependence by military intervention will have to be resolutely met in the manner that the US&Allies militarily confronted Hitler's Germany after 1939.

 

JAPAN'S MULTI-PRONGED STRATEGY TO NEUTRALISE 'CHINA THREAT' TO INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Japan stands out uniquely as the only Asian Nation which boldly faced the 'Soviet Threat'   to Asia Pacific security' alongside  the United States during the 20th Century Cold War. Japan is once again seen now boldly facing the "China Threat" alongside the United States in the evolving 21st Century Cold War.

For Japan, the 21st Century Cold War "China Threat" unlike the 20th Century Cold War is far more threatening to Japan's overall security , more lethal and explosive. 

 Not only Japanese waters and airspace are offensivly intruded into by China but Japan's life-lines of SLOCs through South China Sea are being threatened by China.

China under President Xi Jinping is displaying enhanced propensity to resort to military  force to enforce its misperceived writs.Chinese military brinkmanship is glaringly visible against Vietnam and Philippines in South China Sea and military intervention threats against Taiwan. 

Testimony to China's aggressi impulses range from India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet to Japanese Senkaku Islands. 

Asia Pacific Security of the 20th Century stands replaced by a far wider construct of Indo Pacific Security in 21st Century--- a canvas that encompasses both the PacificOcean and the Indian Ocean and the Nations that lay astride these littorals.

Unlike the Soviet Threat in which Japan was drawn-in because of the ideological tussle and power-play between Russia and the United States, the "China Threat" is radically different.

The "China Threat" that Japan is facing today incorporates both the China-Japan territorial disputes and so also China's bid to oust US Forward Militray Presence in the Western Pacific, basically Japan, to establish its 'Full Spectrum Dominance' over the entire Western Pacific.

Japan's 'National Survival' depends not only on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Japan but also that the Region remans a "Free & Open Indo Pacific" not vulnerable to Chinese aggression,and Chinese political and military coercion..

Japan unlike the UnitedStates was even more alive to the "China Threat" and had started improving its security postures virtually from the turn of the Millenium----gradually and imperceptibly to begin with-----but markedly and unapologetically visible in 2021.

Japan's multi-pronged strategy to boldly face  the 'China Threat" stated above perceptionally incorporates the following thrust-lines (1) Strengthen and Reinforce its US-Japan Mutual Security links and mechanisms (2) Participate actively in all dimensions of US Security Architecture for Western Pacific (3) Reinforce and Expand US-led Security Template for Overall Indo Pacific Security (4) Military Capacity-buildup of Nations like Vietnam and the Philippines whose islands pssessions in South China Sea have been forcibly occupied by China (5) Defence build-up and enhancement of Japan's self-relaint defence and military deterrence capabilities.

Reflective of the above is evidenced by Japan's pivotal role in US-led QUAD, Strategic Partnerships with India and Australia, Defence ties with NATO and Major European Nations, and Japanese Navy presence  in the Gulf of Aden region.

In terms of Japanese deterrence there appears a greater effort by Japan for security in domains of Space, Cyberspace and Electronic Warfare---all the domains in which China is attempting supremacy.

Japanese military hardware emanating from Japan'sown advanced indigenous production capabilities of advanced fighter aircraft, helicopter assault ships capable of being converted to aircraft carriers with VSTOL Fighter aircraft , naval ships etc. also stand supplemented by adavanced US military systems.

Notably, under the last Japanese PM Shino Abe Japan took a significant turn away from the fetters of its Peace Constitution to participate pro-actively in wider military participation in distant areas.

Significantly, the latest "Defense of Japan" White Paper 2021 Document, much to the chagrin of China, asserts that Taiwan's security and stability is a a Japanese security concern.

Dramatically, in the fields of Japan's security policies and outlook there is a 'New Spirit' reflected on the 2021 Ink-Sketch on the Document's Cover----- "The Samurai has Risen"

 

CHINA-PAKISTAN AXIS PROPOSES A "QUINTET" OF SINO-ISLAMIC NATIONS TO COUNTER US-LED "QUAD"

The China -Pakistan Axis is seemingly involved in a proposal, reflective of Samuel Huntington's ;Clash of Civilisations' thesis of a likely Sino- Islamic Strategic Coalition to counter the dominance of the Western Civilsation in global affairs.

The China-Pakistan Axis proposed"QUINTET' Strategic Coalition is to counterbalance the US-led "QUAD" Strategic Initiative comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India taking concrete shape to manage the rising China Threat in the Indo Pacific Region.

The China-led QUINTET in its ultimate form envisages a coalition of China, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey to counter-balace the QUAD. This ultimate coalition was initially to be formed by a Counter-Quad of China, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Turkey for reasons uknown is being considered as a final addittion  to the Counter-Quad to form the QUINTET.

The QUINTET proposal was first aired by Pakistan's note economist Shahid Javid Burki in his Opinion Column in Pakistan's English newspaper The Express Tribune on  July 12 2021 titled 'Afghanistan :a possible component of counter-quad or a quintet". Shahid Javid Burki has been eralier Pakistan's Finance Minister and also has had a stint as Vice Preident of the World Bank in Washington.

Given Burki's standing, and with his present writing on geopolitical perspectives overtaking his geoeconomic writings forte', leads one to believe that the QUINTET kite-flying, if it is indeed kite-flying, could have only emerged with some prodding by the Pakistani Establishment and also some interaction with China.

Burki's last paragraph is notable. He asserts that "The US Quad was to constrain China and bind China; the China-led Quad could relaese Chinese energies to the world to the West. Including Turkey in the configuration would result in the proposed counter-quadto become a QUINTET".

Analytically, a Chinese riposte to the QUAD was expected and so also its broad contours, as spelt out above. However, the crucial determinant of the longevity of the initial Counter Quad and its later  evolution as QUINTET is debatable.

Let us first look at the contemporary impulses which have nudged China and Pakistan in the direction of forming the Counter Quad and its later end-version of the QUINTET.

Geopolitically, in 2021, China and Pakistan stand virtually isolated diplomatically. China with its propensity for unprovoked aggression from Indian Hi,alayas to South China Sea is being labelled as "Disruptive State" undermining Indo Pacific security.

Pakistan is being viewed and type-casted as a Chinese satellite stae on lines of North Korea bereft of  long-standingUS support.  Pakistan now has China as its policy helmsman.

Pakistan and China too with the xeit of US Forces from Afghanistan fear addittional strategic challenges to the China-Pakistan  CPEC which is the flgship project of Cnina in Pakistan besides CPEC being the most vital component of China's grandiose global Belt & Road Blueprint.

At first glance the China-led Counter Quad or its end-version of the QUINTET composition suggets that in terms of Naval Balance against the US-led QUAD the Chinese-led Counter Quad or QUINTET will be inadeqaute in countering QUAD's naval operations potency both in Pacific Ocean and in Indian Ocean.

In terms of geographical landspread the QUINTET looks impressive with potential of great geopolitical counterweight against yhe United States and the QUAD,.

But the comparison of the strategic effectiveness of a China-led QUINTET ends when its longevity is measured on thescale of its enduringcaolition-cohesion envisgaed by China-Pakistan Axis?

China and Pakistan are the only predictable entities in the proposed QUINTET in that both these nations are inextricably bound together by their adversarial pstures against a rising India.

Iran may have signed a 25 year Comprehensive Strategic Parnership with China but this has to be viewed as more of a tactical ploy to gain leverages in its dealing with United States. The longevuty of China-Iran Strategic Partnership is open to question.

Afghaistan is in turmoil and Pakistan Army can be expected to prolong this turmoil  until it gets full control of Afghanistan's decision-making setup. Even in that eventuality, Afghanistan is likely to be in turmoil challenging Pakistan's overlordship.

Turkey despite its seemingly strong policy stances against the United States has till date showed no inclination to "Renounce" its membership of US-led NATO Military Alliance.

What then emerges to the fore is that neither in terms of its geopolitical configurations nor its longevity a China-led Counter Quad or QUINTET can seriously imbalance the US-led QUAD. The QUAD Security Initaitive is likely to draw-in more Nations in the Coalition.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that sheer  commonality of present Islamic Nations adversarial stances against the United States cannot provide the glue for an effective China-led Counter Quad or QUINTET to emerge as an effective strategic counterweight to the QUAD.

 

GERMANY'S IMPERATIVES FOR SYMBOLIC NAVAL PRESENCE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA AGAINST CHINA

Germany noticeably seems to have abstained from marking its naval presence in South China Sea unlike the French Navy and British Navy. France and Great Britain had recently sent Aircraft Carrier Group/ Amphibious Warships to South China Sea. 

This was an expression of solidarity with other Major Powers' Navies led by United States challenging China's military adventurism in reinforcing its illegal sovereignty over the South China Sea maritime expanse.

Geopolitically, can Germany afford to stand aside from the global effort to signal China that it cannot recklessly continue to disreagard international conventions like UNCLOS and The Hague TribunalAward which ruled against China's claims of sovereignty over South China Sea?

Can Germany afford to break ranks with NATO and the European Union's revised perspectives on China evolving as a 'Threat to European Stability' in the coming decade?

Germany may have got away with its 'China Hands-off Policy' of past decades. But in the rapidly churning geopolitical global landscape, Germany will have to take a stand against China.

China has brought on itself the spectre of intense global geopolitical polarisation against China by its reckless aggression extending from India's Eastern Ladakh to South China Sea and forcible military occupation of Islands belonging to Vietnam and Philippines,

Germany in 2021 has to seriously and crucially weigh whether it can still persist to stand aside unlike Major Powers like France, Great Britain, India, Japan and Australia which are coalescing together to ensure 'Freedom of Naviagtion' in South China Sea and the Airspace over it.

Even Canada has recently exercised with other Navies in South China Sea.

Therefore, in terms of Trans-Atlantic Alliance and in terms of European Major Powers solidarity , it is incumbent on Germany to mark German Navy presence in South China Sea without further dithering. 

Germany may also addittionally like to deliberate on whether it can bear the 'perceptional costs' of loss of image in Asian Capitals by inadvertently getting type-casted as permissive of China's military aggression in South China Sea.

 

AFGHANISTAN AS INDO PACIFIC SECURITY "WESTERN OUTPOST"

Afghanistan's strategic significance as "Western Outpost" for Indo Pacific Security seems to have received little notice while the United States was planning a hurried exit of US Forces from that war-ravaged Nation leaving a 'strategic void' which China seems to be in a tearing hurry to fill.

China with a colonial vice-grip hold over Pakistan has now locked Iran in a strategic embrace of a 25 years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership formailsed in 2021.

China with a "Collusive" Pakistan and a "Permissive" Iran has now positioned itself to motivate Afghanistan with economic largesse' inducements to move into China's orbit, thereby enlarging the China-Pakistan-Iran Trilateral into a China-Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan Quadrilateral.

The above evolving geopolitical grouping creates severe strategic iplications for the United States with China as the contender for global dominance in confrontation with the United States and also serious complications for Indo Pacific Security as a whole.

Reflected in my Tweets to @POTUS was that US Planners when now scrutinising the Indo Pacific Region maps in their War-rooms should be struck by the magnitude of the vast landmass stretching from the Korean Peninsula and extending upto the Eastern Littoral of The Gulf as one geograhical contiguous whole, significantly under China's domination.

In terms of maritime control significance impacting Indo Pacific Security the above configuration facilitates two crucial Naval Bases available to China --- Gwadur in Pakistan and Chah Bahar in Iran. This would facilitate China to dominate the Northern Arabian Sea segment of the Indian Ocean.

The United States to safeguard and protect Indo Pacific security interests can turn the tables on China by elevating Afghanistan's  significance in the US strategic calculus as the 'Western Outpost" of Indo Pacific Security.

US Forward Military Presence (FMP), on the lines of FMPs in Japan and South Korea, positioned in Afghanistan would affored the United States an "Eagles Perch" to sustain its Superpower capability to geopolitically determine events in Pakistan and Iran besides maintaining a "Threat in Being" against China's vulnerable Western Regions.

With such capabilities the Indo Pacific Security Template would not be restricted to containment of China in maritime domains only but also contribute to pre-emption of China's domination of the Eurasian Heartland landmass.

The United States in 2021 would be ill-advised to 'Foreclose" its Afghnaistan strategic options available for containment of Chinese expansionism.