CHINA-PAKISTAN AXIS PROPOSES A "QUINTET" OF SINO-ISLAMIC NATIONS TO COUNTER US-LED "QUAD"

The China -Pakistan Axis is seemingly involved in a proposal, reflective of Samuel Huntington's ;Clash of Civilisations' thesis of a likely Sino- Islamic Strategic Coalition to counter the dominance of the Western Civilsation in global affairs.

The China-Pakistan Axis proposed"QUINTET' Strategic Coalition is to counterbalance the US-led "QUAD" Strategic Initiative comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India taking concrete shape to manage the rising China Threat in the Indo Pacific Region.

The China-led QUINTET in its ultimate form envisages a coalition of China, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey to counter-balace the QUAD. This ultimate coalition was initially to be formed by a Counter-Quad of China, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Turkey for reasons uknown is being considered as a final addittion  to the Counter-Quad to form the QUINTET.

The QUINTET proposal was first aired by Pakistan's note economist Shahid Javid Burki in his Opinion Column in Pakistan's English newspaper The Express Tribune on  July 12 2021 titled 'Afghanistan :a possible component of counter-quad or a quintet". Shahid Javid Burki has been eralier Pakistan's Finance Minister and also has had a stint as Vice Preident of the World Bank in Washington.

Given Burki's standing, and with his present writing on geopolitical perspectives overtaking his geoeconomic writings forte', leads one to believe that the QUINTET kite-flying, if it is indeed kite-flying, could have only emerged with some prodding by the Pakistani Establishment and also some interaction with China.

Burki's last paragraph is notable. He asserts that "The US Quad was to constrain China and bind China; the China-led Quad could relaese Chinese energies to the world to the West. Including Turkey in the configuration would result in the proposed counter-quadto become a QUINTET".

Analytically, a Chinese riposte to the QUAD was expected and so also its broad contours, as spelt out above. However, the crucial determinant of the longevity of the initial Counter Quad and its later  evolution as QUINTET is debatable.

Let us first look at the contemporary impulses which have nudged China and Pakistan in the direction of forming the Counter Quad and its later end-version of the QUINTET.

Geopolitically, in 2021, China and Pakistan stand virtually isolated diplomatically. China with its propensity for unprovoked aggression from Indian Hi,alayas to South China Sea is being labelled as "Disruptive State" undermining Indo Pacific security.

Pakistan is being viewed and type-casted as a Chinese satellite stae on lines of North Korea bereft of  long-standingUS support.  Pakistan now has China as its policy helmsman.

Pakistan and China too with the xeit of US Forces from Afghanistan fear addittional strategic challenges to the China-Pakistan  CPEC which is the flgship project of Cnina in Pakistan besides CPEC being the most vital component of China's grandiose global Belt & Road Blueprint.

At first glance the China-led Counter Quad or its end-version of the QUINTET composition suggets that in terms of Naval Balance against the US-led QUAD the Chinese-led Counter Quad or QUINTET will be inadeqaute in countering QUAD's naval operations potency both in Pacific Ocean and in Indian Ocean.

In terms of geographical landspread the QUINTET looks impressive with potential of great geopolitical counterweight against yhe United States and the QUAD,.

But the comparison of the strategic effectiveness of a China-led QUINTET ends when its longevity is measured on thescale of its enduringcaolition-cohesion envisgaed by China-Pakistan Axis?

China and Pakistan are the only predictable entities in the proposed QUINTET in that both these nations are inextricably bound together by their adversarial pstures against a rising India.

Iran may have signed a 25 year Comprehensive Strategic Parnership with China but this has to be viewed as more of a tactical ploy to gain leverages in its dealing with United States. The longevuty of China-Iran Strategic Partnership is open to question.

Afghaistan is in turmoil and Pakistan Army can be expected to prolong this turmoil  until it gets full control of Afghanistan's decision-making setup. Even in that eventuality, Afghanistan is likely to be in turmoil challenging Pakistan's overlordship.

Turkey despite its seemingly strong policy stances against the United States has till date showed no inclination to "Renounce" its membership of US-led NATO Military Alliance.

What then emerges to the fore is that neither in terms of its geopolitical configurations nor its longevity a China-led Counter Quad or QUINTET can seriously imbalance the US-led QUAD. The QUAD Security Initaitive is likely to draw-in more Nations in the Coalition.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that sheer  commonality of present Islamic Nations adversarial stances against the United States cannot provide the glue for an effective China-led Counter Quad or QUINTET to emerge as an effective strategic counterweight to the QUAD.

 

GERMANY'S IMPERATIVES FOR SYMBOLIC NAVAL PRESENCE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA AGAINST CHINA

Germany noticeably seems to have abstained from marking its naval presence in South China Sea unlike the French Navy and British Navy. France and Great Britain had recently sent Aircraft Carrier Group/ Amphibious Warships to South China Sea. 

This was an expression of solidarity with other Major Powers' Navies led by United States challenging China's military adventurism in reinforcing its illegal sovereignty over the South China Sea maritime expanse.

Geopolitically, can Germany afford to stand aside from the global effort to signal China that it cannot recklessly continue to disreagard international conventions like UNCLOS and The Hague TribunalAward which ruled against China's claims of sovereignty over South China Sea?

Can Germany afford to break ranks with NATO and the European Union's revised perspectives on China evolving as a 'Threat to European Stability' in the coming decade?

Germany may have got away with its 'China Hands-off Policy' of past decades. But in the rapidly churning geopolitical global landscape, Germany will have to take a stand against China.

China has brought on itself the spectre of intense global geopolitical polarisation against China by its reckless aggression extending from India's Eastern Ladakh to South China Sea and forcible military occupation of Islands belonging to Vietnam and Philippines,

Germany in 2021 has to seriously and crucially weigh whether it can still persist to stand aside unlike Major Powers like France, Great Britain, India, Japan and Australia which are coalescing together to ensure 'Freedom of Naviagtion' in South China Sea and the Airspace over it.

Even Canada has recently exercised with other Navies in South China Sea.

Therefore, in terms of Trans-Atlantic Alliance and in terms of European Major Powers solidarity , it is incumbent on Germany to mark German Navy presence in South China Sea without further dithering. 

Germany may also addittionally like to deliberate on whether it can bear the 'perceptional costs' of loss of image in Asian Capitals by inadvertently getting type-casted as permissive of China's military aggression in South China Sea.

 

AFGHANISTAN AS INDO PACIFIC SECURITY "WESTERN OUTPOST"

Afghanistan's strategic significance as "Western Outpost" for Indo Pacific Security seems to have received little notice while the United States was planning a hurried exit of US Forces from that war-ravaged Nation leaving a 'strategic void' which China seems to be in a tearing hurry to fill.

China with a colonial vice-grip hold over Pakistan has now locked Iran in a strategic embrace of a 25 years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership formailsed in 2021.

China with a "Collusive" Pakistan and a "Permissive" Iran has now positioned itself to motivate Afghanistan with economic largesse' inducements to move into China's orbit, thereby enlarging the China-Pakistan-Iran Trilateral into a China-Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan Quadrilateral.

The above evolving geopolitical grouping creates severe strategic iplications for the United States with China as the contender for global dominance in confrontation with the United States and also serious complications for Indo Pacific Security as a whole.

Reflected in my Tweets to @POTUS was that US Planners when now scrutinising the Indo Pacific Region maps in their War-rooms should be struck by the magnitude of the vast landmass stretching from the Korean Peninsula and extending upto the Eastern Littoral of The Gulf as one geograhical contiguous whole, significantly under China's domination.

In terms of maritime control significance impacting Indo Pacific Security the above configuration facilitates two crucial Naval Bases available to China --- Gwadur in Pakistan and Chah Bahar in Iran. This would facilitate China to dominate the Northern Arabian Sea segment of the Indian Ocean.

The United States to safeguard and protect Indo Pacific security interests can turn the tables on China by elevating Afghanistan's  significance in the US strategic calculus as the 'Western Outpost" of Indo Pacific Security.

US Forward Military Presence (FMP), on the lines of FMPs in Japan and South Korea, positioned in Afghanistan would affored the United States an "Eagles Perch" to sustain its Superpower capability to geopolitically determine events in Pakistan and Iran besides maintaining a "Threat in Being" against China's vulnerable Western Regions.

With such capabilities the Indo Pacific Security Template would not be restricted to containment of China in maritime domains only but also contribute to pre-emption of China's domination of the Eurasian Heartland landmass.

The United States in 2021 would be ill-advised to 'Foreclose" its Afghnaistan strategic options available for containment of Chinese expansionism.

UNITED STATES & RUSSIA SUSTAINED SUMMIT EXCHANGES IMPERATIVE FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Contextually viewing Indo Pacific troubled security environment in 2021 arising from China's unrestrained military aggressiveness and brinkmanship, and placing the same against the backdrop of the United States and Russia having significant stakes in Indo Pacific stability, strong imperatives exist that the Presidents of United States and Russia engage in Summit Meets to review Indo Pacific security.

The Geneva Summit held last week between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Putin needs to be welcomed as a welcome step in this direction. It does not need much emphasis to state that both the United States and Russia have significant stakes in Indo Pacific stability by virtue of being giant littoral States of the Pacfic.

Furthermore, it needs to be singularly highlighted that even at the height of intense US-USSR  Cold War Superpowers  confrontation in theAsia Pacific and sizeable Navy deployments of both these Superpowers in the Pacific, there was a marked restraint by both the United States and Russia not to indulge in needless military adventurism of the type and magnitude that China has been indulging in ever since 2012.

Conteporaneously, Russia in a Strategic Nexus with China gets perceptionally typecasted as "Collusive", and at best, "Permissive" of China's military expansionsim in the Indo Pacific. This dents Russia's image in Asian capitals and that sort of image Russia can ill-afford if it wishes to regain the exalted position of being an 'inependent power centre in gobal affairs'.

Russia also has to be mindful of the strategic reality that China has clashing interests with Russia in Europe, Central Asia, Far East and now in Greater South West Asia  in the vacuum ensuing on exit of US Forces from Afghanistan.

Russia today has no significant leverages over China either to secure Russia against China encroaching on its traditional turfs in Russia's Near Abroad or Russia's Far East where illigal Chinese migrants nearly a million strong have ensconced them.

Nor can Russia exercise restaint on China's military adventurism in Indo Pacific by itself alone. This has led Russia to be tagged as China's 'B Team'.

The UnitedStates comparitively is well placed to impose some deterence on China by virtue of its security architecture in Indo Pacific and especailly with the emergence of the QUAD.

With China inevitably heading into an Armed Conflict with United States, would Russia be willing to underwrite China's military expansionism in Indo Pacific or militarily aid China in a potential War with United States?

The obvious answer is a big NO.

Admittedly it takes two to tango and that the United States has not been able to 'Reset' its Russia-policy in a mould promotive of inducing 'strategic trust' but then contemporary geopolitics dictate that both the United States and Russia  strive to work together and be seen as working together to maintain security and stability in the Indo Pacific.

Towards the above end,  strong imperatives exist for United States and Russia to engage themselves in sustained Summit Meets regularly. 

 

INDIA STRONGLY REAFFIRMS ITS COMMITTMENT TO FREE & OPEN INDO PACIFIC & QUAD

  China-India relations are at the lowest point in 2021 foloowing China's persistent strategy to generate continuing turbulence in India's security environment, military confrontation on the Northern Borders and pussy-footing on de-escalation in Eastern Ladakh post- May 2020 India's pushback at Galwan.

China contextually therefore was cautioned by Indian Foreign Minister in the following telling words: " Now if you disturb peace and tranquillity, if there is intimidation and friction at the border, obviously its going to tell on the relationship. So my honest answer to you is that  I think the relationship (China-India) is at the crossroads. The border tensions cannot continue with cooperation in other areas."

Referring to the QUAD, the Indian Foreign Minister  asserted that  "With passage of time any initiative will mature" and that the "QUAD's agenda is expanding". Moving ahead as to why the QUAD is a strategic necessity the Indian Foreign Minister stated that " So the QUAD fills a gap that cannot be addressed simply by four bilateral relationships aggregated".

The last sentence in my opinion is most noteworthy in that it sums up  India's future directions namely that in view of China's expansionist impulses and China's intransigent moves of subjecting borders with India to ignition point levels, India has no option but to opt for multilateral security initiatives especially in the maritime domains.

The Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh addressing the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meet yesterday asserted that India strongly stands for a 'Free & Open Indo Pacific" and further reinforced it with assertion that India supports "freedom of navigation and overflights in the South China Sea"

Continuing on the South China Sea , the Indian Defence Minister made the following observations: (1) South China Sea developments have attarcted attention beyond the region (2) Code of Conduct negotiations between ASEAN and China would lead to positive outcomes consonnant with international law and UNCLOS (3) Maritime security has become a concern for India and international community (4) Sea Lanes of Communication are essential for peace, security and prosperity of Indo Pacific.

Reinforcing India's approaches to Indo Pacific challenging security environment and India's policy approaches thereon,, the Indian Defence Minister notably stated that  " India strengthened ts cooperative engagements in the Indo Pacific based on converging views and visions of peace, stability and prosperity in the region"I

India has not only been really  pushed into a corner by China's highly provocative  military moves on India's Northern Borders accompanied by China's increasing intrusive naval moves in the Indian Ocean but also alarmed China's maritime creep in South China Sea  which extends upto Malacca Straits at India's doorstep

Therefore, the overall message from India to China is putting China on notice that India will enhance, reinforce and widen its security cooperative engagements in Indo Pacific as manifested by increased security cooperation with ASEAN Nations and more significantly the QUAD.

Significantly, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghai and US Defense Secretary LlyodAustin were attending this Defence Ministers' Summit. 

The import of India's implicit references to China degrading the peaceful security environment in Indo Pacific and South China Sea would have been noted by Chinese Defence Minister.

The United States would be heartened by India's emerging policy stances on Indo Pacific security, the QUAD and India's call for a "Free & Open Indo Pacific"---an Indian resonance of United States policy stances.