JAPAN AND INDIA'S MASSIVE MILITARY BUILDUP GENERATES STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA

China's switch from 'Soft Power' policy approaches to 'Hard Line' strategic postures with the advent f incumbent President Xi Jinping in Beijing in 2012 took time to be registered in strategic calculations of Japan and India.

It was only in second term of Chinese President Xi Jinping after he had manifested his aggressive impulses on India in Eastern Ladakh and in South China Sea dominance, threatening Japan's survival, that Japan and India belatedly recognized that the 'China Threat' was real.

Infamously, then Indian Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee declared from the steps of Japanese Defence Agency in Tokyo that India did not consider 'China as a Military Threat'.

Japan also at that time was vocally muted in its assertions of China Threat in line with then US policy perspectives on China.

Fast forward to 2024, the 'China Threat' now surfaces as a 'Major Threat', a perception reinforced by China's brinkmanship and propensity to use force to settle disputes, both against Japan and India.

Evident in 2024 markedly, is that both Japan and India have embarked on a robust and massive military buildup which in terms of force-structures and weapons upgradation is 'China-Centric' in content and end-aim.

Admittedly, both Japan and India, with present military build-ups cannot match China's asymmetric preponderant military power but the process of reduction of differentials is in process.

Significantly, while India is engaged in reinforcing both its nuclear and conventional deterrence against China, the core thrust in Japan is presently perforce based on sizeable conventional deterrence against China.

Japan has made significant policy deviations in terms of defence buildup. Japan has breached the erstwhile limit of 1% of GDP on defence expenditure, deployment of Japanese Forces in 'out of area' operations, conversion of its two Helicopter Carriers to full-fledged Aircraft Carriers with Vertical Take Off' Fighter Planes, and more significantly, planning acquisition of long-range missiles which can hit targets in China. 

The present geopolitical environment despite United States' spasmodic "Reset" flirtations with China now actively supports the massive defence build-ups of Japan and India.

Japan and India are both now intimately integrated in United States security architecture of Indo Pacific. This becomes a 'Force Multiplication' factor for both Japan and India.

With such momentous military processes in motion, obviously, strategic implications arise for China, and which China can ill- ignore.

Geopolitical implications that arise for China, in brief can be stated as under:

• China's over-preponderance geopolitical weight backed by massive military power in Indo Pacific gets diluted.
• China is geopolitically diminished with the rise of Japan and India as 'Contending Major Powers'.
• China thus far was not willing to share Asian strategic space with Japan and India as 'Contending Powers'. Now China will be forced to grudgingly share Asian strategic space with both Japan and India.
• With military rise of Japan and India, the countries of Indo Pacific, notably, Southeast Asia, will that much be less fearful of China. 

In military terms, the implications for China can be briefly summed as under:

• Japan and India now impose sizeable DETERRENCE on China's unrestrained aggressive impulses.
• Japan and India with their missile capabilities to hit targets in China's heartland will limit China's political and military coercion.
• Japan's and India's sizeable 'Naval Buildup' in terms of long-range operations and strike capabilities limit China's 'Naval Threats' in Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean regions.
• Japan and India concurrently with their own military buildups are also engaged in 'military capacity buildups' of countries like Philippines threatened by China.

Of serious strategic concern for China is that Japan and India are members of US-led QUAD and United States is seriously considering adding Japan to AUKUS. Both these groupings are China Threat-centric.

Concluding, it does not need much emphasis, that with Japan and India actively engaged in massive military buildups of their Armed Forces, complimented with their inter-woven security relationships with United States, the 'China Checkmate Template' is firmly in place, limiting China's propensity to use force to impose its will in Indo Pacific.