Iran's unprecedented direct military attack on Israel on night 13/14 April with over 300drones and missiles is pregnant with dangers of a wider Middle East conflict which could acquire contours of global conflict also.
Till date, Iran's policy of wiping out Israel was confined to use of Iranian proxy militias operating from Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen, mainly. Israel's confined its ripostes to Iran in terms of cyberwarfare and even political assassinations within Iran of its military commanders and nuclear scientists.
Iran and Israel both scrupulously refrained from not crossing the 'Red Line' of a direct military attack on each other's territory.
Iran by breaching this 'Red Line' has ignited the explosive Middle East powder-keg and thereby setting in motion unpredictable regional and global strategic and military dynamics.
Thus, it becomes pertinent to analyze various aspects of Iran's motivations and compulsions for its direct military attack on Israel. This follows below.
Iran's Direct Attack Israel:Retribution or Svaing Face?
On the face of it, the direct attack by Iran on Israel seems more like 'Saving Face' due to domestic political compulsions and regional impact.
Iran by lack of geographical contiguity with Israel is robbed of any effective military attack on Israel.
Iran is separated from Israel by 570 km with Arab nations interspersed in between.
Iran Had Other Options Than Direct Military Attack on Israel
Iran's retaliation against Israel for bombing of Iranian Consulate in Syria and eliminating top military commanders could have been confined to similar attacks on Israeli embassies in the world.
Iran could have intensified its attacks on Israeli assets by its proxy militias.
That Iran chose the option of 'Direct Military Attack' on Israel seems a 'calculated gamble'.
Iran intended to signal both Israel and United States that it is ready to strike back against both of them.
Iran Falls Into Israel & US Trap
So far United States and Israel have refrained from any direct military attack on Iran and it could have continued that way.
But Iran by its strategic over-reach has opened the floodgates for similar actions by Israel tacitly supported by United States and NATO.
Calls by United States for Israeli restraint against retaliation is only "rhetorical".
Mark the words used by US President Biden: 'We shall not be part of any Israeli retaliatory offensive'. Yet United States has asserted that US guarantees for Israeli security are "Ironclad".
Iranian Drones & Missiles Attack Neutralized by Isreali Sophisticated Air Defence System and Air Forces of US, UK &France
Iran's attack was preponderantly by over 300 drones and included 36 cruise missiles and 10 SSMs.
No major losses accrued to Israeli military assets as 99% were neutralized by Israeli 'Iron Dome' and associated air-defence network.
A large number of drones were shot down by Air Forces of US, UK &France operating in the region, before they could even reach Israeli airspace,
Notably, even Jordan as an Arab Nation shot down some Iranian drones Some reports indicate that even Saudi Arabia shot down Iranian drones.
Reason for above is that Iranian launches were picked up on firing and time taken to traverse 570 km to Israel enabled timely destruction.
Israeli Retalaition Against Iran Direct Attack o Israel:Options
Israel never in is military history has not retaliated with force against any military provocations to its sovereignty.
Military logic dictates that Israel will not refrain from retaliatory strikes against Iran especially when Iran has dared to subject Israel to direct military strikes by Iranian military drones and missiles.
The question is not 'if' but 'when'?
Israel's marked superiority in terms of Israeli Air Force strike capabilities and Iran's not to so effective air-defence network offer many options.
Israel's cyberwarfare superiorities enable it to launch an "Electronic Pearl Harbor" attack paralyzing military network, missile launches networks, petrochemical industry and even banking and trade and commerce networks.
Cruise missiles attacks from its naval submarines against major Iranian naval and petrochemical installations along its littoral on North Arabian Sea offer Israel by Iran's default attractive options.
Lastly, Israeli Special Forces deep within Iran cannot be ruled out.
Iran's Geopolitical & Military Downsizing: Strategic Convergance Between Israel, United States,NATO and Major Arab Nations
Israel by Iranian default of launching a Direct Attack on Israel has become the beneficiary of a "Strategic Convergence" between Israel, United States, NATO and Major Arab Nations.
All of them have a strong convergence on neutralizing the 'Iranian Threat' to Middle East and global stability. These Nations may not be vocal on declaring this aim, but this is how the dynamics can be expected to work behind the scenes.
Early indicator of the above could be seen in the involvement of United States, Britain, France, Jordan and Saudi Arabia shooting down Iranian drones launched against Israel.
Russia-Iran-China Trilateral in Full Srategic Play
Some weeks back I had highlighted on this site the activation of this Trilateral in wake of Ukraine War and war i Gaza.
This is now on display with China declaring that irrespective of the regional and global geopolitics, China intends to stand by Iran. Russia also followed suit soon after with similar assertions.
While China and Russia may not openly indulge in 'acts of war; against the Western Bloc but one can expect that in event of a full-blown war between Israel and Iran, the two Major Communist Nations China and Russia will sustain Iranian war effort.
Concluding Observations
The spiral of retaliation and counterretaliations between Iran and Israel can only be put to an end by direct and robust military intervention by United States supported by NATO Nations and Major Arab Nations.
In a highly polarized world, which has emerged after ascension of Chinese President Xi Jinping into power, the evolving conflict in Middle East benefits China.
India too will be forced to make hard decisions as it would not have the luxury of balancing rope tricks.
The scepter of a global conflict overhangs now.
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