China after "No Limits" military and logistic support provided for Russia's faltering Ukraine invasion is now set to 'encash' as quid pro quo by Russia's military involvement and complicity in Chinese invasion plans of Taiwan.
Russia in normal course should have kept itself distant from any involvement in China's invasion plans for invasion of Taiwan as such a misadventure risks United States military intervention to protect Taiwan.
The ensuing US-China armed conflict in content and dimensions would ordinarily be limited and confined to China-centric dimensions. It would not impact or impinge on Russian national security interests in its Far East territories or Pacific.
Russian complicity and assisting China in its Taiwan invasion plans 'enlarges and escalates' the dimensions to the level of an armed conflict between the China-Russia Axis versus United States & Allies. Severe global and regional strategic implications ensue in its wake.
Can Russia back-out from the eventuality of involvement in China's Tiwan invasion plans? This is highly unlikely due to Russia's geopolitical and strategic compulsions and total dependence on China economically and militarily.
That this contingency is a strategic reality is borne out by recent testimonies by highly placed Pentagon and CIA officials in US Congressional hearings last week. They asserted that the United States Administration was seized with assessments of an eventuality of a 'Two Front' War' scenario with China in Western Pacific and Russia in Europe.
United States strategic concerns arise from a spate of Joint China-Russia Navy and Air Force exercises in Western Pacific simulating amphibious warfare of the type that would be employed by China for Taiwan invasion.
China's recent surge to hoard strategic Materiels from oil, gas, military hardware war wastage reserves and gold & silver to tide over global economic sanctions that would accrue in case of Taiwan invasion
Russia is unlikely to assist China with provision of active Russian Army troops for invasion of Taiwan. But Russian Navy and Russian Air Force missions in Western Pacific providing cover to China's invasion of Taiwan cannot be ruled out.
Russia could as a prelude to Chinese invasion of Taiwan could undertake diversionary provocations military operations in Europe to divide attention and focus of United States and NATO. Finland and even Poland could be targets of Russian diversionary attacks.
To limit Japan's participation in any US military intervention to defeat Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russia could escalate by military deployments and provocations against Japan's Northernmost Island Hokkaido.
The Korean Peninsula also offers China and Rusia as a theater of diversionary attacks using North Korea as proxy.
The extensive geographical contiguity that exists between China and Russia enables them to provide 'strategic depth' to each other in a war-scenario and also to protect each other's Rear Flanks'.
Strategic sanity should rule out any Chinese misadventure of invading Taiwan and Russia being actively complicit in it. Simply, because the overall 'Balance of Power' would be heavily weighted against China and Russia.
China and Russia, singly, cannot militarily prevail over United States and its Allies. Hence, for sheer survival compulsions these two Communist autarkies are forced to band together.
But then, with two megalomanic Communist Dictators sitting in power in Beijing and Moscow with a propensity for armed conflict to stay in power, reinforced with their unbridled military and nuclear arsenals, 'Strategic Sanity' cannot be dreamt of.
Prudence is the batter part of valor and hopefully comes into play to avert what could evolve into a horrendous World War III !!
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