Monday, December 30, 2024

UNITED STATES AND INDO PACIFIC SECURITY GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVES 2025

United States is likely to face serious geopolitical challenges as 2025 dawns, bringing into office President Donald Trump for a second time after a lapse of four years, during which global and Indo Pacific strategic configurations stand drastically changed, because of the emergence of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Quartet, in the wake of Russian Invasion of Ukraine, which I would like to term as the "CRIN Quartet".

China, Russia and North Korea are located in Western Pacific while Iran lies at the margins of the United States Indo Pacific security template. All four of these are Nuclear Powers with Ballistic Missiles arsenals. All of these four Nuclear Powers are in conflictual/adversarial confrontation with the United States.

In Trump 1:0 Administration, two strands seem to have been adopted by President Trump. Normalization of relations with Russia and North Korea and secondly, putting China under strategic pressures via Trade Wars with simultaneous reinforcement of QUAD as an effective deterrent against Chinese military adventurism.

CRIN Quartet was non-existent during President Trump's first term. It was only the Russia-China Axis that was operative.

Normalization between United States & Russia and United States & North Korea did not make any headway, despite President Trump's concerted drive. 

United States relations with China hardened under President Trump during his previous term. as a result of Trade Wars initiated by him.

Since then, and on eve of President-elect Trump's 2025 inauguration of his second Presidency, significant geopolitical changes have taken place posing grave challenges not only to Indo Pacific security but also with Indo Pacific US-hostile Powers--- China and North Korea, getting actively involved in European conflicts by their military and troops manpower support to Russia.

This new linkage of IndoPacific security to European security will now be a strategic challenge for President Trump.

President Trump ca ill-ignore US imperatives of Indo Pacific security nor can European security be allowed to be diluted by any US compromises under President Trump with Russia.

Iran too has got involved in European conflicts by providing sizeable supplies of "Drones' for Russia's stalled military operations in Ukraine. Iran's collaboration of Western Pacific Powers hostile to United States is an additional challenge.

The above two new complex geopolitical challenges to United States with deep strategic implications cannot be met by President Trump with 'linear solutions'.

United States China-policy stances, under outgoing President Biden, unexpectedly and unprecedently, "HARDENED" against China, including a first-ever United States policy assertion dismissing China's 'sovereignty' over China Occupied Tibet.

United States under outgoing President Biden stood more strongly behind Taiwan against China and the military buildup of the Philippines, including establishment of two additional US military bases, which could be used for against China.

Contextually, therefore, incoming US President Trump on January 20, 2025, has little strategic bandwidth to overturn the existing geopolitical and security templates of 'Hard Policies ' on China put into place during 2020-24.

Then, China only, was the Prime Threat to United States and Indo Pacific security. In 2025, President Trump in his second term, President Trump has now to contend with the crystallization of the "CRIN Quartet", comprising China, Russia, Iran and North Korea----all Nuclear Powers.

If Iran and North Korea can get militarily involved in Europe, aiding Russia in its military operations against US-aided Ukraine, what is the guarantee that in any US-China War in Indo Pacific, Iran and North Korea would not actively supplement Chinese war-efforts against United States?

Therein lies President Trump's most significant geopolitical and military challenge as he enters office in January 2025.

 Ending Ukraine War by President Trump, as per his election promise, by pressurizing Ukraine to submit to President Putin's conditions, would not lessen security challenges to Indo Pacific security with entry of CRIN Factor in the strategic calculus against the United States, dominated by China.

Russian President Putin in a "pay-back" gesture to China, would be obligated to support China's invasion of Taiwan plans underway. Russia would then be more obligated to China than the United States.

During his second term, President Trump would have to face the likely contingency of China's long -stalled military invasion of Taiwan. Even as per US-estimates China has been assessed to invade Taiwan by 2027.

United States under President Trump 2:0 would have no options but to pursue the 'Hard Line' China-policy policy formulations in existence in 2024. 

President Trump's declared policy of 'Making America Great Again' (MAGA) forecloses United States options to go soft on China, as United States submitting meekly to Chinese invasion of Taiwan would mark the "US-Eit" from Western Pacific.

Concluding, the major observation that needs to be made is that ever since 1949 when Communist China emerged with belligerent overtones, United States China-policies of 'Engagement', Congagement', 'Competitor', 'Delinking' and 'Derisking' have failed to motivate China to emerge as a 'Responsible Stakeholder' in regional and global security.

In 2025, perspectives suggest that the United States not only has to deal with China as   the Prime Threat to United States security and Indo Pacific security but also an enlarged and intensified hostile CRIN Quartet.

 


   

 

Monday, December 23, 2024

RUSSIA PERCEPTIONALLY A 'DECLINING POWER' IN END-2024; GLOBAL STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

Russia in end-2024 as 'Contending Power' of the United States is in a critical 'Power Decline' arising from debilitating geopolitical, military and economic consequences ensuing from its ill-fated and unprovoked military Ukraine Invasion in 2022, coupled with loss of Syria from Russian orbit and Israel's neutering Iranian Proxies, Hamas & Hezbollah. 

Regardless of an outright victory over Ukraine or of any peace settlement brokered by incoming US President Trump, Russia would sill continue be a 'Declining Power' as in either eventuality Russia's 'Power Losses' would be staggering.

Russia as a 'Declining Power' raises severe global and regional strategic implications in an already unpredictable and uncertain global strategic landscape.

Globally, at the apex level, China would love to and daresay, been striving to replace Russia as the main 'Contending Power' of the United States, ever since US President Obama in his tenure floated the dubious concept of "Global Dyad" of United States and China to manage global security.

China's ambitions in this direction in 2024 run into two serious obstacles in terms of fructifying. President Obama had to face serious opposition globally to his expounded concept.  Global geopolitics since then have taken a 360degree turn.

The first, Russia even as a 'Declining Power' and despite its strategic nexus of Russia-China Axis may not cede the prized slot to China. Russian President Putin's declared objective of Russia as an 'independent power center' would still be operative.

Russian geopolitics may take somersaults to prevent Russia being reduced to a China strategic satellite. 

Secondly, China in 2024, is in adversarial confrontation with the United States. China in the American strategic calculus is no longer an asset. This perspective may get further negative for China if US President-Elect Trump implements his Putin-friendly policies, now with an overwhelming political majority, coupled with intensified US-China Trade Wars and military confrontation in Western Pacific.

Coming to United States, perceptionally, United States under President Trump may see more merit in a US-Russia Global Dyad as opposed to Obama's US-China Dyad for global security management.

In terms of implications for 'Second Tier' Powers like Europe and India, the implications would be more diverse.

In 2024, Europe is in grip of severe military threat perceptions of 'Russian Westward Creep' following Ukraine Invasion and Russian President Putin's threatening assertions to that effect peeved by European Nations military aid to Ukraine.

European Nations can therefore be expected to wish for Russia as a 'Declining Power'.

India as an Emerged Power with considerable military & economic strengths in 2024 is now a 'Consequential Player' in global security.

 Russia's 'Power Decline' has two consequential implications for India. Firstly, strictly in the Russia-India context and secondly in the US-Russia-India context.

Even despite the Former USSR disintegration, India perceived Russia having some considerable countervailing influence on China in terms of its adversarial stances against India. That could wither considerably with Russia's 'Power Decline'.

In the second context, many variables would come into play dependent on how US-Russia relations unfold in next four years.

Likely 'reset' of United States policies favoring Russia to preempt or slow-down its 'Declining Trajectory' would be a gain for India. India with its established good relations with Russia supplemented by a substantive United States-India Strategic Partnership would be a strong existentialist counterweight to a belligerent China.

Should United States under President Trump elects to not reset its Russia policies, and Russia even on its own volition does not geopolitically arrest its power decline, then Russian dependency on China gets intensified, resulting in adverse scenarios for India.

Russia's 'Declining Power' trajectory has implications for India's security interests in the strategic Middle East and Indo Pacific Regions too. The existing Indian foreign policy templates in these vital regions would need to be recalibrated to manage China filling-in the Russian void.

Concluding, the striking fact that so emerges from the above analysis is that both the United States and India, for their respective security interests, have a vested interest in arresting Russia's 'Declining Power' so as to preempt emergence of a militant China to emerge as the sole 'Contending Power' of the United States, reigning in a highly polarized bipolar world.


Sunday, December 15, 2024

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC GRIP IN MIDDLE EAST UNRAVELS IN END-2024 AND ITS IMPICATIONS

 Symptomatic of MiddEast geopolitical churning, Russia's strategic grip in the Middle East in end-2024 has visibly unraveled with decades-old Russia-Iran propped Syrian President Bashar al Assad's lightening overthrow last week, and Israel's military decapitation of Russian-backed Iranian Proxy Militias, namely Hamas and Hezbollah.

Symptomatic of Middle East's rapidly changing geopolitical equations was that Turkey, an erstwhile strong supporter of Russia, spearheaded the blitzkrieg HTS Militias drive from Aleppo to Damascus to bring about a regime-change in Damascus.

Turkey now in direct cross-purposes with Russia has emerged as the kingmaker in Syria.

Syria was a critical component of Russian President Putin's strategy of establishing a powerful presence in Middle East geopolitical power-play against United States predominant sway over the Middle East.

Syria under President Bashar Assad, (since deposed and given political asylum in Russia) hosted a Russian Navy Base at Tartus and a Russian Air Force Base near Latakia. Both these bases in Syria enabled Russian strategic leverages not only in Middle East but also East Mediterranean Region.

Latest satellite imagery suggests that Russia is drawing back its Syrian military presence but has yet not abandoned ts military bases.

Syria also played a significant role in Russia's Middle East strategy in the Iranian context. Needless to recall that Iran has evolved as a crucial 'Centerpiece' in Russia's Middle East geopolitical powerplay.

Syria was the main conduit for funneling Iranian and Russian arms and military wherewithal to Hamas and Hezbollah constantly waging war against Israel.

Coinciding with Syrian President's sudden fall, Isreal launched military incursions into Syria against Syrian military bases funneling aid to Hanas and Hezbollah.

Contextually, in end-2024, Russia's strategic blueprint for a grip on Middle East powerplay stands unraveled.

Russia not abandoning its two major military bases in Syria, even after overthrow of President Assad's downfall, creates unpredictable implications. It indicates that Russia will attempt to temporize with HTS rebels to negotiate retention of its Syrian bases.

On the other hand, reports indicate that the HTS regime in Damascus is apprehending that Iran will initiate "Revenge Attacks" on Syria to re-establish its "Conduits" for aid to Hamas and Hezbollah.

Russia could be in a Catch-22 situation whether in above context to aid Iran or forget retention of its Syrian military bases.

Isreal, undoubtedly, can be expected to thwart any Iranian military attempts to re-establish its 'aid-corridors' to Hamas and Hezbollah, through Syria,

United States can be expected to support Isreal tacitly on the above count and also contrive that any new stable Syrian regime that emerges is US-friendly and demands Russian abandonment of its Syrian military bases.

In Conclusion, events are moving on the above lines, though, the "Geopolitical Fog" could trigger unintended consequences. Despite this, what is certain that Russia's grip in Middle East has unraveled and would take years to be re-implanted again, especially in Levant. 






Saturday, December 7, 2024

MIDDLE EAST SMOULDERING GEOPOLITICAL CAULDRON: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY

India's foreign policy in the Middle East of fine balancing of global and regional geopolitical dynamics stands greatly unraveled by the October 2023 events which in its wake has not only spawned a major war between Israel and Iran aided by its Proxy Militias but has also mired the Middle East in collateral conflicts, like the Syrian Civil War, sharpening the bipolar global divide.

The Syrian Civil War is heading towards a regime overthrow of the Russia and China backed Syrian President. This would rob Russia of its only military toehold in the Middle East. Russia can be expected to trigger another regional conflict to reattain its military bases in Syria.

 Sharp geopolitical divides between the Russia-Iran-China Axis backing Iranian proxies like Hamas & Hezbollah and Iran's Direct Attacks on Israel, and United States solidly backed Israel, with tacit backing of some Arab regimes. 

The unprecedented devastation and bloodshed of the Middle East in 2024 has surpassed the two Gulf Wars interventions by the United States. of the 1990s and 2001.

The advent of President Trump's ascension to power in January 2025 in all probability could sharpen the global and regional political divides, notwithstanding President Trump's good relations with Russian President Putin.

India's foreign policy planners in 2025 will have to contend with the implicit aim of Rusia- China Axis to dislodge United States from the Middle East, using Iran's fifty-year-old hostility to wipe out Israel and the United States, as the spearhead.

Contextually, can India jettison the US-India Strategic Partnership nurtured since 2000? Can India afford to work at cross-purposes with United States security interests in the Middle East under challenge by the Russia-China Axis? Does the unfolding geopolitical dynamics in Middle East extend India the strategic bandwidth to fine balance its policies in the widening bipolar divide?

The answer to all of the above critical questions is a BIG NO!

 At the regional level similar geopolitical interlocking questions need to be asked by Indian foreign policy planners to themselves.

 Can India afford to abandon Israel which has stood by India in all of India's Wars since 1971? Can India be a party to Iran's relentless "War of Isreal Extinction"? Is it advisable for Indian foreign policy to be predicated to 'Hedging Strategies' being undertaken by some major regional Powers?

Here too, the answer is a BIG NO!

Concluding, if all the answers to the pertinent and critical geopolitical questions impacting India's foreign policy are in the 'Negative', then obviously a 'rethink' and 'reset' of the fundamentals of Indian foreign policy in the Middle East is an IMPERATIVE.

Finally, when India's Middle East foreign policy since 2014 stands predicated on India's geopolitical imperatives, unhinged from domestic vote banks politics, churning geopolitical cauldron in Middle East, demands revised perspectives.



Monday, December 2, 2024

CHINA'S ENDLESS PURGES OF MILITARY HIERARCHY BY PRESIDENT XI JINPING IS MANIFSTATION OF ONGOING POWER-STRUGGLE

Chinese President Xi Jinping's endless purges in China's military hierarchy ongoing for more than two years can realistically be analyzed only in two ways. Either the Chinse Armed Forces military hierarchy has become unprecedently "Corruption-Ridden" or corruption is only a fig-leaf excuse coined by the Chinese President as a coverup to hide a relentless "Power Struggle" against him.

China resultantly. in this process can be perceived as becoming 'Strategically Vulnerable,' on either count, with serious implications not only for China, but also with wider regional and global implications.

"Corruption Ridden" military hierarchy is akin to China having a paralyzing brain-tumor which can bring about policy-paralysis. It also is a blot on the ideological purity of the monolithic Chinese Communist Party which controls China, and reputed to be under firm control of President Xi Jinping. 

The above is also a serious reflection on Chinese President Xi Jinping's leadership qualities on two counts. Inability to select impeccable Chinese military hierarchy, or worse, having selected his political favorites, they are turning against him.

On both counts, China's much vaunted strategic might is open to question, as possession of an oversized military machine without impeccable military leadership is no guarantee of military effectiveness.

The "Power-Struggle" interpretation of purges of Chinese military hierarchy seems more plausible as manifestation of growing opposition to President Xi Jinping's iron-fist rule ever since 2013, when he captured both the levers of political and military control of Chinese Armed Forces.

 Purges in China's military hierarchy is not something new and certainly not for President Xi Jinping. It needs to be recalled that in his initial stages of capturing military control nearly 200 purges had taken place.

The present purges of two Defense Ministers, Rocket Forces hierarchy and now the Navy Admiral, heading the Political Affairs Department of the Central Military Commission a, comes at an ominous time, contextually.

Contextually, China today is battling a staggering decline in Chinese economy, widespread unemployment and domestic unrest/ protests are increasing. President Xi Jinping's leadership is obviously going to being increasingly questioned. 

China's external geopolitical and security environment is also hostile resulting from Chinese President's 'Hard Power 'policies.

Joining the above dots, dangers of a domestic political implosion in China cannot be ruled out,

Regionally, the most serious implications arise for countries on China's disputed land peripheries which can become targets of military escalation by a beleaguered Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Reflected by me in my earlier posts is that a 'Thaw" in China-India relations is a myth. Present conciliatory outreaches by Chinese President are "transactional" triggered by geopolitical compulsions. India could be the first major target for a beleaguered Chinese President to divert domestic unrest attention.

Globally, China's political implosion changes the entire 'Balance of Power' template, especially in the Indo Pacific. A Chinese Implosion could unravel the Russia-China Axis and seriously impact the adversarial postures of Russia in Europe and against the United States.  

Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Establishment are counting a lot on incoming US President Trump's 'transactional impulses' for softer US' China-policies.

Concluding observation, emerging from the above, is that even if US President Trump would be so inclined, he cannot prevent "China's Implosion" triggered by what appears to be a power-struggle by Chinese military hierarchy against him.





Wednesday, November 27, 2024

EUROPEAN SECURITY: THE EMERGENCE OF 'COALITION OF FIVE' SECURITY GROUPING OF FIVE MAJOR EUROPEAN NATIONS

 Spurred by unpredictabilities of Russian President's unfolding of aggressive intentions in Europe post-Ukraine Invasion and impending assumption of office by US President-elect Trump, Defence Ministers of Franc, Germany, Poland, Italy and UK met in Germany for greater security cooperation ad coordination, in what is being termed as "Coalition of Five' "or "E5 as the UK Defence Secretary terms it.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and ongoing still, has impelled in its wake, greater efforts by European Major Nations for European unity and security cooperation and coordination.

European threat perceptions based on Russian President Patin's 'Nuclear Saber-Rattling' and 'Threats' to strike Nations providing military aid to Ukraine against Russia, has impelled the 'Coalition of Five' for more effective coordination of 'Intra-Europe' security cooperation and coordination.

United States' unpredictable responses to NATO & European Security and to Russian aggression in Europe under incoming President Trump, has been a major catalyst for the emergence of 'Coalition of Five'.

On November 25 after deliberating on reinforcing European security and defense in the context of ongoing war in Ukraine, Poland's Deputy PM and Defense Minister Kosiniak declared that "It is imperative we are prepared for any scenario even those that are most challenging....... It is imperative that we provide support to Ukraine on a daily and weekly basis.". 

Guarding against any US President Trump's impulses to abandon Ukraine to a 'transactional deal' with Russia, the five Defence Ministers at their meeting in Berlin, asserted that "The five of us want to keep the Ukraine Defense Contact Group' alive".

Also asserted was that military aid to Ukraine be "doubled" which is a pre-emptive call for any President Trump's decision to cut off military aid to Ukraine to pressurize Ukraine President Zelensky to yield to possible Trump Plan to let Russia keep 20% of Ukraine Territory under Russian Occupation to induce Russia for ceasefire in Ukraine.

Polish Defense Minister putting it more mildly asserted that "Europe will have to act ever more coordinated with over-arching goals to be a good (security) partner for US".

Analytically, it can be concluded that this emergence of 'Coalition of Five' is not only European Major Nations geopolitical signaling to incoming US President Trump not to abandon Ukraine but also the evolution of first Intra-Europe indigenous defense grouping independent or supplemental to US-dominated NATO.



 

Friday, November 15, 2024

INDIA'S FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES IN A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN & VOLATILE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL WORLD ORDER POST- 2024

Global geopolitics, as 2024 fades into history and with advent of 2025, has an all-pervasive air of pronounced uncertainties and explosive volatility that will challenge the very existing fundamentals of India's foreign policy.

In fact, the global geopolitical world order will be plagued with these uncertainties and explosive volatility for the next ten years or so. Only, a cataclysmic Worl War III could be the only solution to subdue the unfolding sordid global geopolitics.

The major global uncertainties that standout sharply at end-2024 are the leadership changes in the United States, Russia and China. These leadership changes will make the global geopolitical order more polarized.

The major global explosive flashpoints that have all the potential to be incendiaries for a possible World War III range from the Russia-Ukraine War in Europe to the irreconcilable Israel-Iran War in the Middle East and the multiple "conflictual spots" between the United States and China in Indo Pacific 

Resultantly, the global geopolitical world order, as highlighted in my writings to date, is at the end of 2024, extremely polarized between the US-led Western Bloc of 'Democracy Allies' and the Rusia-China Bloc of 'Totalitarian Allies' like Iran and North Korea.

The political currents in global geopolitical 'world order' presage in end-2024 a "Global Geopolitical Disorder" with leadership changes in both highly polarized Blocs. 

The United States witnesses the re-election of President Trump with his characteristic "Unprintabilities" reinforced with his "unpredicted" absolute political majority.

Russia's President Putin by available political indicators seems to be on a "decline" due to debilitating impact of Russian Invasion of Ukraine. "Unpredictable" leadership tussle in Russia can be expected on pattern of post-USSR Disintegration.

China political future at end-2024 is "Unpredictable" under President Xi Jinping with economic decline and signs of political discontent emerging.

Collapse of Communist China will not only have a major impact on United States and Russia but moreso on India, as domestic disorder can tempt President Xi to initiate hostilities on India' Borders with China Occupied Tibet.  

Against such a geopolitical backdrop, BRICS in which Indian foreign policy has invested much capital is No Answer" as "insurance " for India's security interests as many political pundits advocate. 

Neither BRICS nor SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organizationare "Multipolar"in intent and composition nor a security nest for India.

Both organizations are Russia and China dominated, and both these Power have an "Unpredictable" future

If Indian foreign policy counts on "Multipolarity" both at geopolitical levels, that is equitability between United States, Russia and China and so-called multipolarity of organizations like SCO and BRICS, then unfolding "Geopolitical Disorder" negates these two precepts.

Concluding. stressed once again, that Idia's foreign policy cannot operate in a geopolitical vacuum. Indian foreign policy needs to cater for and be responsive to unfolding "Geopolitical Unpredictabilities".

"Multipolarity" which many sees as just another label for Non-Alignment is no longer valid in evolving "Global Disorder".

 India needs to emerge as a 'practitioner of "Realpolitik" and 'Balance of Power' to emerge as a rightful Major Power.

India's foreign policy blueprint for the next decade should reflect these two precepts, unapologetically.









Sunday, November 10, 2024

CHINA-INDIA "STRATEGIC DISTRUST" OVERHANG GRAVELY RULES OUT "SUSTAINABLE THAWS"IN INTENSIFYING MILITARY CONFRONTATION

 

China's ongoing 'geopolitical and geoeconomic compulsions' impelled China in October 2024 to agree to a tactical compromise with India for disengagement of troops at two contentious points of Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh.

Indian media and strategic community labelling it as a "Thaw" in intensified China-India Military Confrontation on the China Occupied Tibet Border is an overhype and a premature conclusion.

"Strategic Distrust" of China is deeply embedded in India's National Psyche ever since unprovoked 1962 War 'imposed' by China.

"Sustainable Thaw" in China-India relations can therefore be ruled out even in long-term perspective for factors analyzed below.

China is in for a long haul of decades before it can generate "Strategic Trust" in India's National Mindsets.

The major contentious issues which can intensify China-India Military Confrontation are both China-India specific, and also unfolding global geopolitical pressures which could force India's policy moves in directions contradictory to China.

China-India contentious issues likely to unfold anytime and which could intensify and embitter China-India Military Confrontation are as follows: (1) China's unwillingness for Tibet boundary dispute settlement (2) China imposing Dalai Lama's successor on Tibetan Nation (3) China's economic downslide prompting China to resort to divert Chinese domestic public unrest by military escalation on India-China Occupied Tibet Borders.

Detailed analysis will follow in later posts but suffice it to say at present is that the common thread above that runs through all three contentious issues stated above is Tibet and its continued existence as 'China Occupied Tibet,

The Opening Chapter in my Book 'China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives'(22015) titled 'TIBET IS THE CORE ISSUE IN CHINA-INDIA MILITARY CONFRONTATION" can be referred for details on the above issues.

Tibet as a 'Buffer State,' will figure more and more as India's 'Core Security Imperative' in years to come.

Global geopolitical pressures on China having a bearing on China-India Military Confrontation and likely to force China into military escalation on its peripheries are as follows: (1) China losing global geopolitical weightage and co-related India's geopolitical rise (2) US President Trump's advent in Washington leading to greater activation of QUAD's military role and demands on India to shed its aversion to China-Containment (3) China's invasion of Taiwan resulting in US-China Armed Conflict (4) United States intensifying its pressures on China to 'Resolve China-Tibet Dispute' respecting wishes of Tibetan peoples.

The common thread that runs through the above geopolitical pressures are United States China-policy centering on China's 'Core Interests' of Tibet and Taiwan, which China has sworn to defend with military might.

India's policy moves on all of the issues outlined above will run in "Contradiction" to perceived China's national priorities and will result in a darker overhang of "Strategic Distrust" in China-India relations.

In Conclusion, the major observations that emerge are (1) "Sustainable Thaw" in China-India Military Confrontation is an unrealistic proposition (2) India resultantly cannot afford to dilute its military postures on its Northern Borders with China Occupied Tibet (3) India will be necessitated to build-up further its "Credible Conventional and Nuclear Deterrence" against China.

Therefore 'China-Hedging'. 'Risk Aversion', and policy obsession to 'Multipolarity' should not figure in India's policy armory.

 





Saturday, November 2, 2024

THE CHINA-PAKISTAN AXIS HEADING TOWARDS AN INEVITABLE STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT

Global geopolitics and global geoeconomics in 2024-end are throwing up enough indicators that the "Iron Clad" China-Pakistan Axis is heading towards an 'inevitable' strategic denouement. The 'Iron Cladding' on which the China-Pakistan Axis mainly rested in terms of their joint hatred and adversarial stances towards India is "RUSTING" due to India's rise as a Major Power.

Pakistan, reflected for many years in my published Papers, was reduced by China to a 'concubinage relationship' and further reduced by China by a 'colonial vice-like grip' of Pakistan's political and economic dynamics due to Pakistan's economic insolvency.

Pakistan at large today chafes at this colonial hold of China which has ensnared Pakistan into a Chinese debt-trap quagmire. 

Deep anti-China fissures are surfacing within Pakistan, and which cannot be cemented by China's pressures on Pakistan Army to do so.

Three major indicators instantly available last week are instant pointers that strategic denouement is setting-in in the China-Pakistan Axis. These three indicators are: (1) Chinese Ambassador publicly rebuking Pakistan for failing to provide adequate security for Chinese working in Pakistan (2) China hesitating to "reschedule" Pakistan's request for repayment of loans (3) China accepting military disengagement with India in Eastern Ladakh.

Reacting to repeated killings of Chinese engineers working on projects in Pakistan, the Chinese Ambassador, unprecedently, publicly rebuked Pakistan for failure to protect Chinese lives. Unprecedently again, the Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson, publicly dismissed the Chinese Ambassador's rebuke as inappropriate and not following diplomatic norms.

Analytically, the Chinese rebuke, in implicit terms, is that of the Pakistan Army which has deployed nearly two Military Divisions worth of troops for security of Chinese working on projects from Khunjerab in the North to Gwadur on North Arabian Sea coast.

That Pakistan Army could not ensure it, itself, reflects the intense anti-China sentiments that in 2024 pervades within Pakistan.

Notably, China has always dithered on Pakistan's recurring requests to China for financial bailouts, forcing even the most ardent pro-China former Pakistan PM Imran Khan to grudgingly seek loans from US-dominated IMF. Pakistan was bailed out from critical financial crises, not by China, but by Saudi Arabia and UEA financial largesse.

This reality cannot be lost on Pakistan, perceptionally, with its consequent impact on public opinion within Pakistan.

Chinese financial assistance is likely to be further tightened as China increasingly views Pakistan's strategic utility declining in China's strategic calculus.

The China-Pakistan Axis in military terms is likely to be hugely impacted by China last week agreeing with India to disengage in military confrontation at two most contentious points of Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh. 

China may have tactically resorted to do so but in perceptional terms within Pakistan, and moreso within Pakistan Army, amounts to a Chinese climbdown recognizing India's geopolitical and geoeconomic rise.

This process, if continued by China and Pakistan, robs both Nations of their 'Dual Threat' strategy.

Addedly, Pakistan's younger generations, looking for gainful economic employment, are neither interested in Kashmir nor meaningless military confrontation with India. In concrete terms, perceptionally, alignment with China has not improved economic conditions within Pakistan, notwithstanding Chinese and Pakistan Establishment's propaganda.

Furthermore, China's diplomatic isolation on global issues and economic downslide, will induce corresponding reappraisals within Pakistan of China's 'Iron Clad' guarantees to Pakistan's stability and development.

Concluding, what needs to be stressed, without sermonizing, is that the Indian Policy Establishment should keep incessantly joining the dots and press home its advantages, tactically and strategically, by Indian policy measures, to induce within Pakistan the inevitable strategic unravelling of the China-Pakistan Axis.



Friday, October 25, 2024

CHINA'S ECONOMY ENTERS "GARBAGE TIME" PHASE: SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS.

China's economic stagnation has entered the "Garbage Time" phase--a term coined by Chinese essayist Hu Wenhui drawing an analogy from sports matches referring to final moments of the game where the end stands already decided. Significantly, it reflects deep economic despair that pervades China's domestic environment which could end up in political turmoil.

Chinese media has been abuzz with this "Garbage Time" economic barbs, directed more against Chinese President Xi Jinping's 12-year centralized mishandling of Chinese economy bypassing the Chinese Premier who traditionally set China's economic agenda. 

Chinese Communist Party has thus been nudged into taking note of the "Garbage Tine" economic barbs and issue rebuttals as a conspiracy by defeatist forces within China and abroad.

Recent Chinee economic stimulus packages by China grudgingly undertaken on orders of President Xi have failed to restore investor confidence and significant outflow of foreign capital.

My Article of July 29 titled ' China's Declining Trajectory under 12 Years of President Xi Jinping Rule: An Analysis' highlighted the geopolitical and economic impact. 

It was pointed out that any "Reverse Gears" by Chinese President was highly unlikely as major structural economic reforms inherently carry risks of political challenges to President Xi's continuance in power. 

Since July 2024, Chinese economy continues to "stagnate" giving rise to significant global and regional implications discussed briefly below,

China as Economic Superpower Myth Bursts

With Chinese economy down sliding from 12% growth rates for decades to below 5% under 12 years of President Xi's over-centralized rule, China is no longer deemed as 'Economic Superpower'.

China's economic situation further worsened   with President Xi's 'Anti Espionage Law' targeting foreign management and risk consultancy firms hastening outflow of foreign businesses.

China's Consequent Global Economic Leverage Takes a Big Hit

China for decades enjoyed great global clout in terms of global economic leverages. With economic stagnation not receding China stands hit badly.

China's 'Debt Trap' diplomacy luring weak economic countries like Maldives and Sri Lamka etc will be severely curtailed.

China's Oversized Miliatary & Internal Scurity Budgetary Spending Could be Impacted

While in the last Defence Budget China registered a 7% increase in spending but can the Chinese economy with less than 5% growth can sustain oversized Defence Budgets and for how long?

The demands on Internal Security spending are bound to grow but where is the money with the anomy stagnating?

China's Regional Belligerence Likely to be Reduced

Evidence of this can be seen with China's political and military reasonableness with India underway after four winters of intense military confrontation in Ladakh.

However, the first tentative steps by China in this direction should be viewed as "tactical and tentative" until China sustains it in the long term.

However, no evidence of reduction of Chinese belligerence against Taiwan, Philippines or in South China Sea is visible.

China Resents India's Neigborhood First Policies.

China's decreasing economic clout and India's increasing success in winning back Maldives and Sri Lanka has rattled China.

Chinese columnists' writings in Global Times betray China's deep resentment.

Global Eonomists have Opined China Itself Falling Into its Own 'Debt Trap'-- Most Significant Observation by Global Economists

Note global economists have opined that China itself could be entering into a classic 'Debt Trap' due to its production 'overcapacities', falling exports due to trade tariffs by many nations against Chinese dumping charges and US economic sanctions.

This could lead to severe domestic political turbulence in China with job cuts and rising unemployment in Chinese youth.

Concluding Observations

With China's $17 Trillion economy stagnating with no hopes of early structural transformation, China is entering a dangerous phase both domestically and globally.

China may have surpassed the Former Soviet Union in Communist rule longevity but this "Garbage Time" phase of China's economic stagnation resembles the Soviet Union's closing time of "Disintegration".

China survived the adverse impacts of Soviet Union's disintegration due to United States economic patronage. 

The United States is currently not around to bail-out China's economic stagnation and consequent 'Disintegration". The United States may now hasten it to preempt Chinese aggression against United States in Indo Pacific.

India as China's Major Asian Rival needs to tread carefully in economic and trade dealings with China, despite noted Indian economists misinformed advocacy to permit Chinese FDI in India.

The above amounts to India underwriting China's aggression against India from China Occupied Tibet.

Overall, China's myth of being a "Superpower" sounds hollow and the Balane of Power against it globally and regionally stands considerably impacted.




Friday, October 11, 2024

ISRAEL AND UNITED STATES AT WAR WITH IRAN SINCE OCTOBER 7 2023: GEOPOLITICAL & STRATEGIC REALITY CHECK

The Middle East has been turbulent ever since October 7, 2023, when Iranian Proxies Armed Militias' , Hamas and Hezbollah, besieged Israel following Hamas unprovoked diabolical attacks on Israeli citizens killing nearly 1800 Israelis.

Realistically speaking, Iran's Proxy Armed Militias, Hamas and Hezbollah, would not have dared to provoke Israel into escalated hostilities--an all-out war, but for a 'Green Light' from Iran which is the financier and supplier of military hardware of these Armed Militias.

One year down the line, a 'Strategic Reality' check is objectively possible to draw major geopolitical & strategic conclusions so emerging.

United States is at War with Iran along with Isreal

United States may not have directly attacked Iran in the last one year in tandem with Israel's relentless military offensives in Gaza and Lebanon, but the United States in terms of a strategic reality check is at war with Iran on two counts. 

Besides, sustaining Israel's offensives with its military wherewithal, the United States in both Direct Attacks by Iran on Israel, with its reinforced Armed Fooces deployments in the region, intercepted and destroyed Iranian rockets/missile targeting Israel.

In both Iranian Direct Rockets/Missiles Attacks on Israel. the United States provided a "Missile Shield" to Israel along with British Forces and Arab allies of United States.

This was an active American military involvement in Israel's war against Iran.

United States air strikes on Houthis in Yemen and on Iranian proxies in Iraq and in Syria also amount to undeclared war by United States to degrade Iran's war-waging capability against Israel.

United States seems to be holding back on sizeable military intervention against Iran till such time US Presidential Elections take place on November 5.

Russia Pivots Strategically Towards Iran: Change From Earlier Even Stance

Russia noticeably has strategically tilted fully towards Iran after abandoning its earlier "Even Stance" maintained between Iran and Mjor Arab countries.in Lebanon.

In my last Article it was highlighted that Russian PM made a hurried dash to Iran following which within hours Iran launched its Escalated Second Direct Attack on Israel. 

Russian involvement in Israel-Iran War could intensify with no cessation of Israeli strikes 

While writing, news has come out that Russia has seriously warned Israel against strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

China Apparently an Impassive Spectator

Surprisingly, China despite its 25 Years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Iran seems to be an impassive spectator on the escalating trajectory in Middle East.

China in recent past had brokered a Peace Deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia and between Hamas and PLO Fateh.

Chinese hyperactivity in brokering peace between Iran and Israel is not visible.

Escalation Dominance Rests with Israel

Israel retains 'Escalation Dominance' in the ongoing War between Iran and Israel despite two Direct Rockets/Missiles Attacks by Iran.

Israel has relentlessly pursued its offensives both against Hamas and Hezbollah with renewed vigor, notwithstanding the above.

Noticeably, Iran virtually sued for peace by declaring after its Second Direct Attack on Israel that it will not launch any more attacks on Israel unless Israel indulges on retaliatory strikes.

Israel's 'Escalation Dominance' is evident when it continues to assert that it will carry out retaliatory Strikes on Iran.

Israel's Escalation ofWar against Iran Restrained by United States Presidential Elections

Israel would have launched crippling strikes on Iran's nuclear assets and petrochemicals complexes but for restraint ordered by US President Biden so as not to adversely affect chances of a Democrats victory of Vice President Kamal Harris as President on November 5.

That restraint may not be operative after November 5, 2024. Should Trump get re-elected as US President, Iran could be in for a major escalation by United States and Israel.

Israel Succeeds in Crippling Hamas and Hezbollah Strike Capabilities Against Israel

Israel has inflicted crimpling losses on men, materiels and logistics support of Hamas in Gaza Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their strike capabilities against Israel stand degraded.

It will take Iran at least ten years to rebuild and regroup Hamas and Hezbollah into their pre-October 7 military potency.

Israel's 'Intelligece Domination' both by Tecnical Surveillance and Human Intelligence

Israeli successes in liquidating the entire top-rung of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, not only in Gaza and Lebanon but as far as the very heart of Iran, speaks volumes of Israel's 'Intelligence Domination' over Iran and its Proxies.

Israel relies heavily on an extensive ground network of 'Human Intelligence' both by Mossad and locally recruited agents.

No wonder Mossad is considered globally as "Prince Amongst Spies". It is amazing how much painstaking time and effort Mossad spends on training its operatives headed for Iran and neighboring countries.

Future Geopolitical and StrategicPerspectives: Isreal& United States Versus Iran War

Geopolitically, the Middle East will see an intense "polarization" between Unites States & Allies versus the Russia-Iran-China Trilateral.

The Middle East will witness a greater Sunni-Shia sectarian rift notwithstanding Iran's concerted bid to project itself as the 'Defender of Islam' over the heads of Saudi Arabia.

Iran will not be able to achieve its bid to emerge as the Middle East's 'Predominant Regional Power'. The Middle East polarization against Iran grows by the day.

Iran's overt Nuclear Weaponization will not add to Iran's deterrence against United States and Israel.

Ceasefire between Israel and Iran or any brokered peace deal does not even lurk over the horizon.

In Conclusion, what emerges from the above reality check is that the ongoing War is likely to escalate into a wider Middle East conflagration.













 

Thursday, October 3, 2024

IRAN'S GRAVE MILITARY MISCALCULATION IN SECOND ESCALATED DIRECT STRIKE ON ISRAEL: ESCALATION DOMINANCE OR RECKLESS STRATEGIC MADNESS?

 Iran's traditional reputation as adept chess-players nosedived on October 1, 2024, as Iran opted for a Second Direct Attack on Israel after April 2024, within hours of Russian Prime Minister's rushed visit to Teheran for meetings with Iranian President, in what can be analyzed as Iranian attempts to achieve 'Escalation Dominance' or sheer reckless strategic madness?

Global and Indian media did not join the dots of Russian PM's rushed visit to Teheran (First ever by Russian PM) for meetings with Iranian President on October 1, 2024. Within hours of this meeting, Iran launched its Second Direct Attack on Israel. 

Curious strategic coincidence? Was the Russian PM's visit to Iran to advise strategic restraint or was it a Russian 'Green Signal' to go ahead with Escalated Ballistic Missiles with over 180 Ballistic Missiles against Israel?

If the latter, then Israel has to factor-in Russian support for Iran's attempts for 'Escalation Dominance' against Israel. One has to await further for this to play it out.

Meanwhile, what needs analysis is, irrespective of Russian factor, Iran's gravest mistake in ascending the 'Escalation Cycle' regardless of geopolitical, strategic, military and economic consequences of its reckless decision by escalating its Second Direct Attack on Israel with Ballistic Missile and Hypersonic Missiles.

Israel PM has asserted that Iran will pay a heavy and painful price for the Second Direct Attack on Israel. But the timing and dimensions of Israel's retaliation will be of Israel's choosing.

With both Iran and Israel competing for 'Escalation Dominance' it would be pertinent to analyze whether Iran has really in effect achieved' Escalation Dominance' 'over Israel in this 'Escalation Cycle".

Iran's illusionary 'Escalation Dominance' post-Second Direct Attack rests on two false notions: (1) United States would restrain Israel from immediate retaliatory strikes in view of impending US Presidential Elections on November 5 (2) Iran's demonstrated "Saturation" of Israel's Air Dence network by Ballistic/Hypersonic Missiles would deter Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran has pushed the 'Escalation Envelope' a bit too far as now within United States both Republicans and Democratic presidential candidates have hardened positions on checkmating Iran.

Incumbent US President Biden has cautioned Israel only to restrict Israel retaliatory Stikes from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and further that Israel strikes be 'proportionate'. This is a noticeable change in US stance from 'Reactive" To "Proactive"

By the above US token, Israel is freed to strike back at Iran comprehensively barring attacks on Iran's nuclear sites. Even that stipulation may fade away after US presidential elections. 'Proportionate' resort also implies attacks on Teheran's proximate military bases.  

The second Iranian miscalculation rests on fallacy that Iran has been able to 'Impose Deterrence' on Israel by piercing Israeli multi-layered Air Defence Shield.

Israel has proven in past Wars, twice at least, that it has the military resilience to turn the tables on its supposedly military adverses inflicted by its enemies. Surely, Israel will plug-in the deficiencies noticed in Iranian attacks.

Israel can also be expected to strike back at Iran substantially even in the next four weeks notwithstanding US presidential elections on November 5. United States would have no option but to actively support Israel.

Concluding, it can be safely asserted that Iran, by any stretch of imagination, has not achieved 'Escalation Dominance' over Israel by its Second Direct Attack by Ballistic/Hypersonic Missiles.

Iran has thereby opened further wide the 'floodgates' of direct attacks on itself by Israel with now "Proactive" support of United States. United States stances have now moved away from "Reactive" stances on the Israel-Iran War.

Russian support to Iran, if any, would be severely limited by its Ukraine War. Geopolitically, Russia is on a sticky wicket.

Overall, it can be summed-up that Iran has embarked on a reckless strategy, more impulsive than geostrategically calibrated, disregarding the geopolitical context.

  

Sunday, September 29, 2024

ISRAEL ENTRAPS IRAN IN STRATEGIC PREDICAMENT POST-LIQUIDATION OF HEZBOLLAH CHIEF NASRALLAH: IRAN'S OPTIONS?

Israel has victoriously implemented its strategic blueprint of emasculating the potent threats to Israel's security posed by Iran's two most powerful militia armies, namely Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel thus has liquidated the "Crown Jewels" of Iran's armory of Proxy Armed Militias besieging Israel for decades. 

Israel Defense Forces unprecedented for any other military forces have inflicted unsustainable losses on Iran's 'Spearheads" enabled by robust and determined political leadership pursuing a calculated strategic blueprint.

Israel's mortal blow against Iran was the killing of Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah in Beirut in his Command Center in Beirut two days ago by Israeli Air Force precision airstrikes using nearly 80 bunker-busting bombs of 5,000 pounds each.

 Pointed out persistently in my writings was that the larger strategic aim of Israel was to "Trap Iran" into a wider Middle East armed conflict with United States. Iranian President has lately also asserted Iran's concerns that it would like not to fall into Israel's "Trap Iran" plan.

 Forecasted earlier was that Israel would have no hesitation in scaling the 'Escalation Ladder' and pursue its 'Deterrence by Punishment' strategy of uprooting Hamas and Hezbollah by their very roots.

The roots lie in Teheran and Iran's other sprouts in Yemen Houthis, Iraq and Syria. Israel's next steps in escalation post-September 28, 2024, will be in these directions.

Herein lies Iran's gravest strategic dilemma. Iran by itself has no military option of direct military attacks on Israel, other than by missiles, rockets and drones. Iran's direct attacks on Israel using this option was effectively neutralized by Israel and US & Major Arab Nations interception.

Iran's 'Direct Attack' Ground Forces operations can only take place by IRGC troops using Syrian and Iraq territory. In the past, too, Israel's contingency plans were based on Iran's likelihood of use of Syrian Air Bases for refueling for attacks on Israel and for ferrying troops.

Israel is guarded against such a contingency by US Naval & Air Force deployments in East Mediterranean.  Post-September 28 US Forces deployments in East Mediterranean are being increased.

Iran by using such an option risks direct US military intervention and widening it to a US-Iran War, something in which Iran does not want to be trapped.

Contextually, can Iran afford to lose face in the Middle East and in Islamic World by displaying strategic impotence against Israel?

Iran could salvage some credibility by indulging in "Nuclear Saberrattling" but to what effect? Israel too has its Nuclear Arsenal more advanced than Iran's. 

Further, any Iranian nuclear threat would decidedly invite US & Allies military intervention to checkmate Iran's recklessness.

In terms of regional Islamic support for Iran forthcoming what needs to be stressed is that Iran is a "Strategic Loner" in the wider Middle East. It is a Non-Arab and Non -Sunni (Shia) Nation pitted against Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey.

Other than rejuvenating and restoring the paralyzed Hamas and Hezbollah crippled by Israeli military operations, Iran has no viable options, short of risking a direct US-Iran War.

Israel is well aware of the above and it is for this reason, primarily, that Israel is persisting on its air strikes all over in Lebanon on Hezbollah bases.

 Indicators exist that Israeli Ground Forces are prepared to move into Lebanon to mop-up Hezbollah strongholds pulverized by Israel Air Force strikes.

Concluding, the major observation that emerges is that Iran is in a' Catch 22' strategic predicament. Iran's military options against Israel, either way, risks Iran being trapped in a major wider US-Iran War.







Saturday, September 21, 2024

ISRAEL'S STRATEGIC ESCALATION BLUEPRINT AGAINST IRAN PORTENDS A WIDER US-IRAN ARMED CONFFLICT

Israel and Iran's implacable hostility arising from Iran's strategic objective of liquidating Israel's entity as a Nation-state has been ongoing ever since 1989. What Sunni Arab Nations could not achieve singly or in unison ever since Israel was founded as Jewish Homeland in 1948, Shia Iran has donned that mantle on its shoulders trying to give it Pan-Islamic contours.

Overhanging this hostility is the geopolitical rivalries between United States and USSR in Cold War 1.o and now in Cold War 2.0 the power-play between United States & Israel versus Iran & Russia-China Axis in the wider Middle East.

In the above process of Israel-Iran confrontation, Iran has managed to create two armed militarily potent militias, the Hamas & Hezbollah, which have besieged Israel from Palestinian Gaza in the South/West and Hezbollah from Lebanon.

Lately, the Houthis in Yemen can also be added as Iran's military proxies against Israel and the United States.

Notably, even the Superpowers could not create such 'Proxy Armies' as Iran has been able to do to further its strategic aims against Israel.

Fast-forward to 1923-24, (read my post of April 2024) the Israel armed confrontation has escalated to assume strategic contours portending a wider US-Iran Armed Conflict which could have unintended consequences for global and regional security.

In my April 2024 post, it was asserted that Iran by crossing the 'Red Line' of 'Direct Attack' on Israel had "opened the floodgates of similar attacks by Israel on Iran with tacit support of United States & West".

Since April 2024, Israel has steeply climbed the escalation-ladder in retaliation for the unending attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, in the wake of October 07, 2024, horrific attacks on Israel by Hamas. 

Israel's escalation is no longer confined to transactional military operations but there now seems to be in my estimation a well-calibrated strategic blueprint to emasculate Iranian Hamas & Hezbollah proxy armies from its very roots to achieve sustainable deterrence against Iran's proxy military militias.

The follow-up of this strategic blueprint is to trap Iran in a wider US-Iran conflict as mentioned in my April 2024 post, so that Iran's imperial Middle East regional power ambitions are neutralized.

Focusing on Israel's immediate aims the contours that emerge are (1) Liquidate Hamas both by infrastructure damage in Gaza, destruction of its war-waging capability and elimination of its top leadership in Gaza (2) Destroy Hezbollah war-waging capability and logistics bases in Lebanon and strike mortal blows on Hezbollah top political and military leadership (3) Psychological warfare in terms of inflicting 'fear psychosis' on host populations residing in Gaza& Lebanon so as to turn them against Hamas & Hezbollah (4) Operationally, after complete neutralization of Hamas & Hezbollah, Israel will then concentrate on cutting-down Houthi Threat to size.

Israel's military drives since April 2024 bear out the above contours. Israel's heavy and widespread devastation of Gaza and Southern Lebanon Hezbollah military bases are eye-openers. So is Israel's reach in Beirut, Lebanon and distant Teheran in Iran, liquidating Hamas & Hezbollah top leadership, indicative of Israel's traditional deep resolve.

Finally, Israel with successful completion of above phases would have achieved its end-aim of clipping Iran's strategic wings of posing daily potent military threats to Israel's security from Hamas & Hezbollah
military threats.

Such a process inherently carries the possibilities of Iran stepping-up 'Direct Attacks' on Israel by massed Missile Attacks reminiscent of the Iran-Iraq War 
'War of Cities' of the last Century. These Iranian missile attacks would be to slow down Israel operations against Hamas & Hezbollah.

Should Iran embark on such a reckless step, it would amount to regional escalation and Iran getting trapped into a wider US-Iran Armed Conflict.
 
Geopolitically, Israel is far too important for United States, Europe and majority of the Major Sunni Arab Nations of the Middle East.

 The same cannot be said of Russia-China Axis in support of Iran. Beyond arms supplies to Iran and its proxy armies operating against Israel, and rhetorical support, Russia and China would not risk a major conflict with US in the Middle East, where their options are limited.
 
No wonder, that both Russia and China have made protestations that Israel and Iran should exercise restraint. The underlying geopolitical reason is that both Russia and China would not' like to see the complete liquidation of Hamas & Hezbollah, since they not only tie down Israel but more importantly strategically distract United States with its 'Iron Clad" security and survival guarantees for Israel's National Survival.

Concluding, it should be apparent that Israel will now not be deterred from climbing-up on the 'Escalation Ladder' to achieve its strategic aim of complete destruction of Hamas & Hezbollah siege on Israel security which would further ensure that Iran's existential to Israel is downgraded, if not fully neutralized.

Isrrael as one noted Israel strategic analyst has asserted has added one more deterrence theory which is "Deterrence by Punishment" with overwhelming military force on its adversaries, beyond bearable limits  









    

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

COLD WAR 2.0 ONGOING IN INDO PACIFIC WITNESSES EASTERN NATO AND EASTERN WARSAW PACT TAKING SHAPE

Cold War1.0 which ensued in Europe in the aftermath of Post-World War II spawned the creation of Nort Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 with United States and Western Europe Nations as its members. NATO was forged by the United States and West as collective security response against the Former USSR having established Communist Republics in East Europe.

Warsaw Pact was established five years later in 1954 by USSR and its East European Communist Satellite nations. Warsaw Pact was a matching response to NATO whose founding was attributed to West Germany joining NATO.

Cold War 1.0 lasted from 1945 to 1991when the USSR disintegrated and with East European countries shaking off Russia's yoke, the Warsaw Pact became extinct.

NATO contrastingly survives till today with a double-sized spread now resting on Russia's contracted borders. Its latest members are Sweden and Finland. 

Military rise of China and its propensity to use military force to impose its will on its peripheries in Indo Pacific raised the scepter of an enlarging and escalating "China Threat"   whose tremors are now perceptibly felt beyond Indo Pacific confines.

 NATO Security Vision 1930 takes note of "China Threat" coupling it with the "Russia Threat" to Europe--the Russia-China Axis.

In 2024, Cold War 2.0 is visibly ongoing in Indo Pacific with China as the lead player and Russia post-Ukraine War now actively integrated in collective security exercises with China.

The recent massive China-Russia Joint Military Exercise involving over reported 400 ships & Fighter Aircraft participating in vicinity of Japan was demonstrated to show-off Russia-China Axis military might in war-time scenarios.

Obviously, this Russia-China Axis military response was to counter the US-led and US-crafted bilateral, trilateral and multilateral security groupings that have emerged more sharply since China under incumbent President Xi Jinping switched Chinna's strategies from 'Soft Power' to muscular 'Hard Power', creating multiple flashpoints in Indo Pacific.

Cold War 2.0, reminiscent of Cold War 1.0 in Europe, is now in full swing in Indo Pacific in 2024 which has emerged as a highly "Bipolar Polarized Region'.

Eastern NATO was a concept which kept surfacing from late 1990s is now being actively pursued. Realistically, while Eastern NATO may have not emerged on institutional pattern of NATO, but the US-led security architecture for IndoPacific Security against the "China Threat" is all but in name an Eastern NATO.

Eastern Warsaw Pact also has taken shape in Indo Pacific in wake of Cold War 2.0 when the security linkages of Russia-China-Norh Korea are added. 

Possible candidates as future members of Eastern Warsaw Pact can be assessed as Iran and Pakistan with one or two Central Asian Republics. The China-Pakistan Axis and China-Iran 25years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership are indicators.

Major Concluding observations that need to be made are that (1) Eastern NATO and Eastern Warsaw Pact predominating Indo Pacific security environment, all but as integrated institutionalized structures, is a 'given' (2) Indo Pacific cannot escape the strategic reality of intense military confrontation spawning opposing military alliances arising from bipolar geopolitics as confrontation intensifies (3) Indo Pacific as a highly surcharged explosive bipolar confrontation region would offer no bandwidth for practitioners of neutrality, fence-sitters or multipolarity.

Cold War 1.0 would historically remain as a mere shadow comparatively against Cold War 2.0 more incendiary conflictual flashpoints.  

The "China Threat" in Cold War 2.0 is more unpredictable and potent than what was the Russian Threat to Europe in Cold War1.0.