Russia in end-2024 as a 'Contending Power' of the United States is in a critical 'Power Decline' arising from debilitating geopolitical, military and economic consequences ensuing from its ill-fated and unprovoked military Ukraine Invasion in 2022, coupled with loss of Syria from Russian orbit and Israel's neutering Iranian Proxies, Hamas & Hezbollah.
Regardless of an outright victory over Ukraine or of any peace settlement brokered by incoming US President Trump, Russia would sill continue be a 'Declining Power' as in either eventuality Russia's 'Power Losses' would be staggering.
Russia as a 'Declining Power' raises severe global and regional strategic implications in an already unpredictable and uncertain global strategic landscape.
Globally, at the apex level, China would love to and daresay, been striving to replace Russia as the main 'Contending Power' of the United States, ever since US President Obama in his tenure floated the dubious concept of "Global Dyad" of United States and China to manage global security.
China's ambitions in this direction in 2024 run into two serious obstacles in terms of fructifying. President Obama had to face serious opposition globally to his expounded concept. Global geopolitics since then have taken a 360degree turn.
The first, Russia even as a 'Declining Power' and despite its strategic nexus of Russia-China Axis may not cede the prized slot to China. Russian President Putin's declared objective of Russia as an 'independent power center' would still be operative.
Russian geopolitics may take somersaults to prevent Russia being reduced to a China strategic satellite.
Secondly, China in 2024, is in adversarial confrontation with the United States. China in the American strategic calculus is no longer an asset. This perspective may get further negative for China if US President-Elect Trump implements his Putin-friendly policies, now with an overwhelming political majority, coupled with intensified US-China Trade Wars and military confrontation in Western Pacific.
Coming to United States, perceptionally, United States under President Trump may see more merit in a US-Russia Global Dyad as opposed to Obama's US-China Dyad for global security management.
In terms of implications for 'Second Tier' Powers like Europe and India, the implications would be more diverse.
In 2024, Europe is in grip of severe military threat perceptions of 'Russian Westward Creep' following Ukraine Invasion and Russian President Putin's threatening assertions to that effect peeved by European Nations military aid to Ukraine.
European Nations can therefore be expected to wish for Russia as a 'Declining Power'.
India as an Emerged Power with considerable military & economic strengths in 2024 is now a 'Consequential Player' in global security.
Russia's 'Power Decline' has two consequential implications for India. Firstly, strictly in the Russia-India context and secondly in the US-Russia-India context.
Even despite the Former USSR disintegration, India perceived Russia having some considerable countervailing influence on China in terms of its adversarial stances against India. That could wither considerably with Russia's 'Power Decline'.
In the second context, many variables would come into play dependent on how US-Russia relations unfold in next four years.
Likely 'reset' of United States policies favoring Russia to preempt or slow-down its 'Declining Trajectory' would be a gain for India. India with its established good relations with Russia supplemented by a substantive United States-India Strategic Partnership would be a strong existentialist counterweight to a belligerent China.
Should United States under President Trump elects to not reset its Russia policies, and Russia even on its own volition does not geopolitically arrest its power decline, then Russian dependency on China gets intensified, resulting in adverse scenarios for India.
Russia's 'Declining Power' trajectory has implications for India's security interests in the strategic Middle East and Indo Pacific Regions too. The existing Indian foreign policy templates in these vital regions would need to be recalibrated to manage China filling-in the Russian void.
Concluding, the striking fact that so emerges from the above analysis is that both the United States and India, for their respective security interests, have a vested interest in arresting Russia's 'Declining Power' so as to preempt emergence of a militant China to emerge as the sole 'Contending Power' of the United States, reigning in a highly polarized bipolar world.
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