QUAD SECURITY DIALOGUE GROUPING SHOULD BE ENLARGED TO QUAD PLUS 3 POST-UKRAINE

Russia's invasion of Ukraine this year not only has endangered European security but significantly creates graver implications for Indo Pacific security   necessitating QUAD to be enlarged by admitting South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia as members of QUAD.

Maintaining that Russian invasion of Ukraine was a Europe-centric security threat not impacting Indo Pacific security would be strategically incorrect. Russia has a seaboard on the Pacific Ocean around Vladivostok and in proximity to South Korea and Japan.

 Russia is also in a Virtual Military Alliance with China which poses exponential threats to Indo  Pacific security. Russian and Chinese strategic convergences focus intensely in 2022 to prompt US military exit from Western Pacific.

Increasingly visible in 2022 are joint Fighter Aircraft  Combat Patrols of Chinese and Russian Air Force in close proximity of Japan and South Korea.  

 Also visible is Chinese Air  Force Fighter aircraft 'buzzing' provocatively  US Air Force, Canadian Air Force and Australian Air Force surveillance planes on routine patrols over South China Sea international airspace.

All of the above are provocatively hostile activities  by a belligerent China and now a belligerent Russia post-Ukraine both in challenging confrontational postures against United States- led QUAD countries.  

The enlarged threat to Indo Pacific security releases urgent imperatives to enlarge the membership of QUAD. 

I would strongly recommend that QUAD be enlarged  to QUAD Plus 3 to include South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia. All of these three countries have pivotal strategic locations in Indo Pacific with special reference to Western Pacific and South East Asia ---all crucial to Indo Pacific security.

JAPAN'S SECURITY IMPERATIVES DICTATE FAST-TRACK NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARSENAL ACQUISITION

Japan's  volatile and unpredictable hostile security environment in 2022 with China, North Korea and Russia as adversarial nuclear powers creates inescapable security imperatives to acquire a fast-track acquisition of Nuclear Weapons Arsenal. Contextually, Japan's imperatives in 2022 outweigh the imperatives when I first advocated this imperative in 2002 and thereafter in my writings. 

Japan's imperatives to urgently acquire a Nuclear Weapons Arsenal becomes critical when viewed from the perspectives of Japan's security impacted by Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine with active but covert support of China. 

The emergence of Russia-China Axis was a foregone conclusion and this unholy Axis of  self-willed two Communist Dictators  with powerful military might and nuclear weapons arsenal coupled with their propensity to impose their will in their neighbour-hoods should be an eye-opener for Japanese leaders, Japanese policy establishment and the Japanese people.

When to the Russia-China Axis  Nuclear Weapons Arsenal is added the Nuclear Arsenal of theirs protege 'Rogue State' of North Korea, Japan should awaken to the nightmare of being cowed into submission by "Nuclear Blackmail" by Russia, China and North Korea. 

Japan's security is as it is plagued by territorial disputes with both Russia and China on its Northern and Southern extremities. North Korean missiles test firings overflying Japan is ample indicator of North Korean intentions.

Japan so far for decades has been relying on the US 'Nuclear Umbrella" for its security against nuclear threat from China and Russia. But as events in Ukraine's invasion by Russia and United States and NATO's timidity have amply indicated that Japan can no longer solely rely on United States for its security against nuclear threats by Russia, China and North Korea.

The United States should contextually welcome and encourage Japan acquiring a Nuclear Weapons Arsenal to redress the the Nuclear Weapons Arsenals in the Indo Pacific.

Concluding, as I well know from the 1980's when I was on a diplomatic assignment, Japan  was only a 'Screw Driver Turn"away in terms of developing Nuclear Weapons. In 2022, threatening nuclear blackmail by Russia, China and North Korea, place a higher call on Japanese Nation to shed its inhibitions and secure its future by developing a Nuclear Weapons Arsenal.

UNITED STATES "CHINA THREAT" CHALLENGE OPTIONS 2022--MANAGEMENT OR CONTAINMENT?

The "China Threat" to United States national security, security of US Allies in Western Pacific and to US strategic partners in Indo Pacific Region  has manifested itself in 2022 in decidedly threatening terms, short of war. The United States faces the stark choice in 2022 of adopting deterrent 'China Containment' strategies against an aggressive China or continuing with its ambiguity- muddling strategy of  'China Management'.

China's decidedly hostile confrontational stances were fully evident when China threw the military gauntlet against the United States by establishing Full Spectrum Dominance' over the South China Sea, indulged in political and military coercion of Japan and forcibly occupied Philippines and Vietnamese Islands in South China Sea and constantly threatening a military invasion of Taiwan

The latest Chinese military provocation against the United States is to threaten the invasion of Taiwan by hostile intrusion of Chinese Air Force Fighter Jets and Bombers in attacking formations, into Taiwanese air-space.

China stands emboldened to do so by United States timid military forbearance arising from decades of United States successive Administrations adopting the "China Management"  strategy premised on strategically inadvisable precepts of 'China Hedging'  and 'Risk Aversion'.

United States policy formulations and strategies premised on "China Management" have totally failed to deter China from threatening US 'Core Security Interests' in Indo Pacific Region. 

The US Policy establishment, if it has failed to join the dots of China's hostile intentions and military provocations against US national security interests and global influence, open themselves to charges of gross dereliction of protecting vital US security interests and denting US influence both in Indo Pacific and worldwide. 

The above then reinforces Chinese incessant propaganda that the United States is a "Declining Power"  and thereby denting US image as the reigning Superpower and a 'Nett Provider of Indo Pacific Security. 

Can the United States afford such an irreparable loss of its global image against a Revisionist Power like China? Should not United States in 2022 not seriously switch from its failed policies of 'China Management' to active "China Containment ? 

Concluding, all contemporary and unfolding indicators portend that a China emboldened into an ascendant trajectory by decades of US permissiveness on Chinese intents can now only be checkmated by United States with active "China Containment" policy. History beckons so.

 

 

 

JAPAN AS FRONTLINE STATE FOR UNITED STATES IN WESTERN PACIFIC SECURITY ARCHITECTURE-2022 REVIEW

Japan's National Security threat perceptions in 2022 are overwhelmingly dominated by the China Threat which has emerged as an unprecedented menacing and predatory threat posed by Communist China to Indo Pacific security surpassing in potency the Soviet Threat that hovered during Cold War 1.0.

Japan's natural choice to ensure its national survival against the Soviet Threat earlier and now the more aggressive China Threat lay with the United States. This was achieved through the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty which also facilitated US Military Forces to be positioned in Japan as US Forward Military Presence numbering over 40,000.

The United States despite having imposed a Peace Constitution on Japan after World War II limiting Japan's security to Self Defense Forces, soon realized, that not only security of the Japanese Mainland but also the overall security of  Continental USA rested on Japan as the pivotal component of US-configured security architecture in the Western Pacific, earlier against the Soviet Threat and in the 21st Century against the much more potent China Threat.

During Cold War 1.0 against the Soviet Threat, the Japanese Self Defense Forces were incrementally made to share the security of sea-lanes of communication (SLOCs) extending to 1,000 nautical miles from Japan across the South China Sea expanse. Denial of Japanese Straits for Soviet submarines to breakout into the Pacific was also a major task.

The enormity of the China Threat to Western Pacific security, Japan's security per se, and to Continental USA that has unfolded in the first decade of the 21st Century has prompted the United States to shed its earlier misgivings about re-emergence of Japanese militarism (fostered by China and lapped up by US), has now given way to the United States even encouraging Japan to acquire offensive and Force Projection capabilities for Japanese Armed Forces.

Japan today is engaged in a sustained drive in the above direction. Reports also indicate of the conversion of the two Helicopter Carriers of Japanese Navy into mini- Aircraft Carriers to operate F-35s. Missile ranges are also being doubled.

Japan is actively participating in joint patrolling of the South China Sea and capacity-building of Navies of Vietnam and the Philippines besides investing in the security of other South East Asian countries perceiving the China Threat.

Japan is an active member of QUAD and has forged substantive defence relationships with India and Australia--all supplementing the overall effort of securing the Indo Pacific against Chinese expansionism.

Concluding, all that one can emphasize is that Japan in face of the China Threat menacing the security of Indo Pacific Region has emerged even more distinctively as the most pivotal component of the US-configured security architecture not only for the Western Pacific but even for the overall  Indo Pacific Security architecture to checkmate the China Threat. Japan today is involved in that direction with United States, India and Australia---with European Nations also pitching in now.

 

JAPAN-AUSTRALIA DEFENCE AGREEMENT :Deterrence Noose Tightens Against China

Ominously, the recently signed Japan-Australia Defence Agreement 2021 portends the tightening of the Strategic Deterrence noose against China both in terms of their strategic weight and also that yet an additional layer is added over and to the Indo Pacific security architecture led by the United States.

Japan and Australia are Major Powers of the Indo Pacific strategically located in the Northern and Southern segments of the Pacific Ocean. The strategic weight of Japan in Indo Pacific security arises from their long-standing durability as enduring Allies of the United States through the decades-old US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty and ANZUS (Australia-New Zealand-United States Alliance).

Additionally, Japan and Australia are members of the QUAD Security Initiative and Australia recently became member of AUKUS comprising Australia, UK and US-- the three member Nuclear Submarines Alliance, with planned transfer of US nuclear submarines technology to Australia.

In 2022, the geopolitical picture obtaining is that Japan and Australia intensely perceive the China Threat  as a strategic concern for their respective national security interests. Both Japan and Australia in recent ears have been at the receiving end of China's political and economic coercion.

China has in recent years been making determined forays into Southern Pacific smaller island nations over which Australia had enjoyed strategic influence.

Logically therefore, it was natural for Japan and Australia to establish a strong Defence Partnership providing complimentary security weightage to each other bilaterally,  over and above, their respective security treaties with United States.

Japan and Australia can now be expected to intensify their military exchanges and joint exercises to cater for contingencies arising in the Western Pacific because of China's depredations in South China Sea, threats of Taiwan invasion and meddling in South Est Asia. Japan and Australia share strategic convergences on these aspects.

Japan-Australia Bilateral Defence Agreement needs to be strategically viewed as an insurance by both countries to cater for any contingency of an unlikely isolationist impulses that sometimes afflict the United States polity.

Concluding,in terms of overall Indo Pacific Security Template the Japan-Australia Defence Agreement besides adding another weighty strand to the web of security relationships that have emerged as "Strategic Deterrence" to China's threatening postures in the Indo Pacific also portends and signals the 'firm intentions'  of United States, Japan, Australia and India to deter China in different combinations from its wanton aggressive impulses.