ISRAEL AND UNITED STATES AT WAR WITH IRAN SINCE OCTOBER 7 2023: GEOPOLITICAL & STRATEGIC REALITY CHECK

The Middle East has been turbulent ever since October 7, 2023, when Iranian Proxies Armed Militias' , Hamas and Hezbollah, besieged Israel following Hamas unprovoked diabolical attacks on Israeli citizens killing nearly 1800 Israelis.

Realistically speaking, Iran's Proxy Armed Militias, Hamas and Hezbollah, would not have dared to provoke Israel into escalated hostilities--an all-out war, but for a 'Green Light' from Iran which is the financier and supplier of military hardware of these Armed Militias.

One year down the line, a 'Strategic Reality' check is objectively possible to draw major geopolitical & strategic conclusions so emerging.

United States is at War with Iran along with Isreal

United States may not have directly attacked Iran in the last one year in tandem with Israel's relentless military offensives in Gaza and Lebanon, but the United States in terms of a strategic reality check is at war with Iran on two counts. 

Besides, sustaining Israel's offensives with its military wherewithal, the United States in both Direct Attacks by Iran on Israel, with its reinforced Armed Fooces deployments in the region, intercepted and destroyed Iranian rockets/missile targeting Israel.

In both Iranian Direct Rockets/Missiles Attacks on Israel. the United States provided a "Missile Shield" to Israel along with British Forces and Arab allies of United States.

This was an active American military involvement in Israel's war against Iran.

United States air strikes on Houthis in Yemen and on Iranian proxies in Iraq and in Syria also amount to undeclared war by United States to degrade Iran's war-waging capability against Israel.

United States seems to be holding back on sizeable military intervention against Iran till such time US Presidential Elections take place on November 5.

Russia Pivots Strategically Towards Iran: Change From Earlier Even Stance

Russia noticeably has strategically tilted fully towards Iran after abandoning its earlier "Even Stance" maintained between Iran and Mjor Arab countries.in Lebanon.

In my last Article it was highlighted that Russian PM made a hurried dash to Iran following which within hours Iran launched its Escalated Second Direct Attack on Israel. 

Russian involvement in Israel-Iran War could intensify with no cessation of Israeli strikes 

While writing, news has come out that Russia has seriously warned Israel against strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

China Apparently an Impassive Spectator

Surprisingly, China despite its 25 Years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Iran seems to be an impassive spectator on the escalating trajectory in Middle East.

China in recent past had brokered a Peace Deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia and between Hamas and PLO Fateh.

Chinese hyperactivity in brokering peace between Iran and Israel is not visible.

Escalation Dominance Rests with Israel

Israel retains 'Escalation Dominance' in the ongoing War between Iran and Israel despite two Direct Rockets/Missiles Attacks by Iran.

Israel has relentlessly pursued its offensives both against Hamas and Hezbollah with renewed vigor, notwithstanding the above.

Noticeably, Iran virtually sued for peace by declaring after its Second Direct Attack on Israel that it will not launch any more attacks on Israel unless Israel indulges on retaliatory strikes.

Israel's 'Escalation Dominance' is evident when it continues to assert that it will carry out retaliatory Strikes on Iran.

Israel's Escalation ofWar against Iran Restrained by United States Presidential Elections

Israel would have launched crippling strikes on Iran's nuclear assets and petrochemicals complexes but for restraint ordered by US President Biden so as not to adversely affect chances of a Democrats victory of Vice President Kamal Harris as President on November 5.

That restraint may not be operative after November 5, 2024. Should Trump get re-elected as US President, Iran could be in for a major escalation by United States and Israel.

Israel Succeeds in Crippling Hamas and Hezbollah Strike Capabilities Against Israel

Israel has inflicted crimpling losses on men, materiels and logistics support of Hamas in Gaza Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their strike capabilities against Israel stand degraded.

It will take Iran at least ten years to rebuild and regroup Hamas and Hezbollah into their pre-October 7 military potency.

Israel's 'Intelligece Domination' both by Tecnical Surveillance and Human Intelligence

Israeli successes in liquidating the entire top-rung of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, not only in Gaza and Lebanon but as far as the very heart of Iran, speaks volumes of Israel's 'Intelligence Domination' over Iran and its Proxies.

Israel relies heavily on an extensive ground network of 'Human Intelligence' both by Mossad and locally recruited agents.

No wonder Mossad is considered globally as "Prince Amongst Spies". It is amazing how much painstaking time and effort Mossad spends on training its operatives headed for Iran and neighboring countries.

Future Geopolitical and StrategicPerspectives: Isreal& United States Versus Iran War

Geopolitically, the Middle East will see an intense "polarization" between Unites States & Allies versus the Russia-Iran-China Trilateral.

The Middle East will witness a greater Sunni-Shia sectarian rift notwithstanding Iran's concerted bid to project itself as the 'Defender of Islam' over the heads of Saudi Arabia.

Iran will not be able to achieve its bid to emerge as the Middle East's 'Predominant Regional Power'. The Middle East polarization against Iran grows by the day.

Iran's overt Nuclear Weaponization will not add to Iran's deterrence against United States and Israel.

Ceasefire between Israel and Iran or any brokered peace deal does not even lurk over the horizon.

In Conclusion, what emerges from the above reality check is that the ongoing War is likely to escalate into a wider Middle East conflagration.

 

IRAN'S GRAVE MILITARY MISCALCULATION IN SECOND ESCALATED DIRECT STRIKE ON ISRAEL: ESCALATION DOMINANCE OR RECKLESS STRATEGIC MADNESS?

 Iran's traditional reputation as adept chess-players nosedived on October 1, 2024, as Iran opted for a Second Direct Attack on Israel after April 2024, within hours of Russian Prime Minister's rushed visit to Teheran for meetings with Iranian President, in what can be analyzed as Iranian attempts to achieve 'Escalation Dominance' or sheer reckless strategic madness?

Global and Indian media did not join the dots of Russian PM's rushed visit to Teheran (First ever by Russian PM) for meetings with Iranian President on October 1, 2024. Within hours of this meeting, Iran launched its Second Direct Attack on Israel. 

Curious strategic coincidence? Was the Russian PM's visit to Iran to advise strategic restraint or was it a Russian 'Green Signal' to go ahead with Escalated Ballistic Missiles with over 180 Ballistic Missiles against Israel?

If the latter, then Israel has to factor-in Russian support for Iran's attempts for 'Escalation Dominance' against Israel. One has to await further for this to play it out.

Meanwhile, what needs analysis is, irrespective of Russian factor, Iran's gravest mistake in ascending the 'Escalation Cycle' regardless of geopolitical, strategic, military and economic consequences of its reckless decision by escalating its Second Direct Attack on Israel with Ballistic Missile and Hypersonic Missiles.

Israel PM has asserted that Iran will pay a heavy and painful price for the Second Direct Attack on Israel. But the timing and dimensions of Israel's retaliation will be of Israel's choosing.

With both Iran and Israel competing for 'Escalation Dominance' it would be pertinent to analyze whether Iran has really in effect achieved' Escalation Dominance' 'over Israel in this 'Escalation Cycle".

Iran's illusionary 'Escalation Dominance' post-Second Direct Attack rests on two false notions: (1) United States would restrain Israel from immediate retaliatory strikes in view of impending US Presidential Elections on November 5 (2) Iran's demonstrated "Saturation" of Israel's Air Dence network by Ballistic/Hypersonic Missiles would deter Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran has pushed the 'Escalation Envelope' a bit too far as now within United States both Republicans and Democratic presidential candidates have hardened positions on checkmating Iran.

Incumbent US President Biden has cautioned Israel only to restrict Israel retaliatory Stikes from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and further that Israel strikes be 'proportionate'. This is a noticeable change in US stance from 'Reactive" To "Proactive"

By the above US token, Israel is freed to strike back at Iran comprehensively barring attacks on Iran's nuclear sites. Even that stipulation may fade away after US presidential elections. 'Proportionate' resort also implies attacks on Teheran's proximate military bases.  

The second Iranian miscalculation rests on fallacy that Iran has been able to 'Impose Deterrence' on Israel by piercing Israeli multi-layered Air Defence Shield.

Israel has proven in past Wars, twice at least, that it has the military resilience to turn the tables on its supposedly military adverses inflicted by its enemies. Surely, Israel will plug-in the deficiencies noticed in Iranian attacks.

Israel can also be expected to strike back at Iran substantially even in the next four weeks notwithstanding US presidential elections on November 5. United States would have no option but to actively support Israel.

Concluding, it can be safely asserted that Iran, by any stretch of imagination, has not achieved 'Escalation Dominance' over Israel by its Second Direct Attack by Ballistic/Hypersonic Missiles.

Iran has thereby opened further wide the 'floodgates' of direct attacks on itself by Israel with now "Proactive" support of United States. United States stances have now moved away from "Reactive" stances on the Israel-Iran War.

Russian support to Iran, if any, would be severely limited by its Ukraine War. Geopolitically, Russia is on a sticky wicket.

Overall, it can be summed-up that Iran has embarked on a reckless strategy, more impulsive than geostrategically calibrated, disregarding the geopolitical context.

  

ISRAEL ENTRAPS IRAN IN STRATEGIC PREDICAMENT POST-LIQUIDATION OF HEZBOLLAH CHIEF NASRALLAH: IRAN'S OPTIONS?

Israel has victoriously implemented its strategic blueprint of emasculating the potent threats to Israel's security posed by Iran's two most powerful militia armies, namely Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel thus has liquidated the "Crown Jewels" of Iran's armory of Proxy Armed Militias besieging Israel for decades. 

Israel Defense Forces unprecedented for any other military forces have inflicted unsustainable losses on Iran's 'Spearheads" enabled by robust and determined political leadership pursuing a calculated strategic blueprint.

Israel's mortal blow against Iran was the killing of Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah in Beirut in his Command Center in Beirut two days ago by Israeli Air Force precision airstrikes using nearly 80 bunker-busting bombs of 5,000 pounds each.

 Pointed out persistently in my writings was that the larger strategic aim of Israel was to "Trap Iran" into a wider Middle East armed conflict with United States. Iranian President has lately also asserted Iran's concerns that it would like not to fall into Israel's "Trap Iran" plan.

 Forecasted earlier was that Israel would have no hesitation in scaling the 'Escalation Ladder' and pursue its 'Deterrence by Punishment' strategy of uprooting Hamas and Hezbollah by their very roots.

The roots lie in Teheran and Iran's other sprouts in Yemen Houthis, Iraq and Syria. Israel's next steps in escalation post-September 28, 2024, will be in these directions.

Herein lies Iran's gravest strategic dilemma. Iran by itself has no military option of direct military attacks on Israel, other than by missiles, rockets and drones. Iran's direct attacks on Israel using this option was effectively neutralized by Israel and US & Major Arab Nations interception.

Iran's 'Direct Attack' Ground Forces operations can only take place by IRGC troops using Syrian and Iraq territory. In the past, too, Israel's contingency plans were based on Iran's likelihood of use of Syrian Air Bases for refueling for attacks on Israel and for ferrying troops.

Israel is guarded against such a contingency by US Naval & Air Force deployments in East Mediterranean.  Post-September 28 US Forces deployments in East Mediterranean are being increased.

Iran by using such an option risks direct US military intervention and widening it to a US-Iran War, something in which Iran does not want to be trapped.

Contextually, can Iran afford to lose face in the Middle East and in Islamic World by displaying strategic impotence against Israel?

Iran could salvage some credibility by indulging in "Nuclear Saberrattling" but to what effect? Israel too has its Nuclear Arsenal more advanced than Iran's. 

Further, any Iranian nuclear threat would decidedly invite US & Allies military intervention to checkmate Iran's recklessness.

In terms of regional Islamic support for Iran forthcoming what needs to be stressed is that Iran is a "Strategic Loner" in the wider Middle East. It is a Non-Arab and Non -Sunni (Shia) Nation pitted against Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey.

Other than rejuvenating and restoring the paralyzed Hamas and Hezbollah crippled by Israeli military operations, Iran has no viable options, short of risking a direct US-Iran War.

Israel is well aware of the above and it is for this reason, primarily, that Israel is persisting on its air strikes all over in Lebanon on Hezbollah bases.

 Indicators exist that Israeli Ground Forces are prepared to move into Lebanon to mop-up Hezbollah strongholds pulverized by Israel Air Force strikes.

Concluding, the major observation that emerges is that Iran is in a' Catch 22' strategic predicament. Iran's military options against Israel, either way, risks Iran being trapped in a major wider US-Iran War.

ISRAEL'S STRATEGIC ESCALATION BLUEPRINT AGAINST IRAN PORTENDS A WIDER US-IRAN ARMED CONFFLICT

Israel and Iran's implacable hostility arising from Iran's strategic objective of liquidating Israel's entity as a Nation-state has been ongoing ever since 1989. What Sunni Arab Nations could not achieve singly or in unison ever since Israel was founded as Jewish Homeland in 1948, Shia Iran has donned that mantle on its shoulders trying to give it Pan-Islamic contours.

Overhanging this hostility is the geopolitical rivalries between United States and USSR in Cold War 1.o and now in Cold War 2.0 the power-play between United States & Israel versus Iran & Russia-China Axis in the wider Middle East.

In the above process of Israel-Iran confrontation, Iran has managed to create two armed militarily potent militias, the Hamas & Hezbollah, which have besieged Israel from Palestinian Gaza in the South/West and Hezbollah from Lebanon.

Lately, the Houthis in Yemen can also be added as Iran's military proxies against Israel and the United States.

Notably, even the Superpowers could not create such 'Proxy Armies' as Iran has been able to do to further its strategic aims against Israel.

Fast-forward to 1923-24, (read my post of April 2024) the Israel armed confrontation has escalated to assume strategic contours portending a wider US-Iran Armed Conflict which could have unintended consequences for global and regional security.

In my April 2024 post, it was asserted that Iran by crossing the 'Red Line' of 'Direct Attack' on Israel had "opened the floodgates of similar attacks by Israel on Iran with tacit support of United States & West".

Since April 2024, Israel has steeply climbed the escalation-ladder in retaliation for the unending attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, in the wake of October 07, 2024, horrific attacks on Israel by Hamas. 

Israel's escalation is no longer confined to transactional military operations but there now seems to be in my estimation a well-calibrated strategic blueprint to emasculate Iranian Hamas & Hezbollah proxy armies from its very roots to achieve sustainable deterrence against Iran's proxy military militias.

The follow-up of this strategic blueprint is to trap Iran in a wider US-Iran conflict as mentioned in my April 2024 post, so that Iran's imperial Middle East regional power ambitions are neutralized.

Focusing on Israel's immediate aims the contours that emerge are (1) Liquidate Hamas both by infrastructure damage in Gaza, destruction of its war-waging capability and elimination of its top leadership in Gaza (2) Destroy Hezbollah war-waging capability and logistics bases in Lebanon and strike mortal blows on Hezbollah top political and military leadership (3) Psychological warfare in terms of inflicting 'fear psychosis' on host populations residing in Gaza& Lebanon so as to turn them against Hamas & Hezbollah (4) Operationally, after complete neutralization of Hamas & Hezbollah, Israel will then concentrate on cutting-down Houthi Threat to size.

Israel's military drives since April 2024 bear out the above contours. Israel's heavy and widespread devastation of Gaza and Southern Lebanon Hezbollah military bases are eye-openers. So is Israel's reach in Beirut, Lebanon and distant Teheran in Iran, liquidating Hamas & Hezbollah top leadership, indicative of Israel's traditional deep resolve.

Finally, Israel with successful completion of above phases would have achieved its end-aim of clipping Iran's strategic wings of posing daily potent military threats to Israel's security from Hamas & Hezbollah

military threats.

Such a process inherently carries the possibilities of Iran stepping-up 'Direct Attacks' on Israel by massed Missile Attacks reminiscent of the Iran-Iraq War 

'War of Cities' of the last Century. These Iranian missile attacks would be to slow down Israel operations against Hamas & Hezbollah.

Should Iran embark on such a reckless step, it would amount to regional escalation and Iran getting trapped into a wider US-Iran Armed Conflict.

 

Geopolitically, Israel is far too important for United States, Europe and majority of the Major Sunni Arab Nations of the Middle East.

 The same cannot be said of Russia-China Axis in support of Iran. Beyond arms supplies to Iran and its proxy armies operating against Israel, and rhetorical support, Russia and China would not risk a major conflict with US in the Middle East, where their options are limited.

 

No wonder, that both Russia and China have made protestations that Israel and Iran should exercise restraint. The underlying geopolitical reason is that both Russia and China would not' like to see the complete liquidation of Hamas & Hezbollah, since they not only tie down Israel but more importantly strategically distract United States with its 'Iron Clad" security and survival guarantees for Israel's National Survival.

Concluding, it should be apparent that Israel will now not be deterred from climbing-up on the 'Escalation Ladder' to achieve its strategic aim of complete destruction of Hamas & Hezbollah siege on Israel security which would further ensure that Iran's existential to Israel is downgraded, if not fully neutralized.

Isrrael as one noted Israel strategic analyst has asserted has added one more deterrence theory which is "Deterrence by Punishment" with overwhelming military force on its adversaries, beyond bearable limits  

    

COLD WAR 2.0 ONGOING IN INDO PACIFIC WITNESSES EASTERN NATO AND EASTERN WARSAW PACT TAKING SHAPE

Cold War1.0 which ensued in Europe in the aftermath of Post-World War II spawned the creation of Nort Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 with United States and Western Europe Nations as its members. NATO was forged by the United States and West as collective security response against the Former USSR having established Communist Republics in East Europe.

Warsaw Pact was established five years later in 1954 by USSR and its East European Communist Satellite nations. Warsaw Pact was a matching response to NATO whose founding was attributed to West Germany joining NATO.

Cold War 1.0 lasted from 1945 to 1991when the USSR disintegrated and with East European countries shaking off Russia's yoke, the Warsaw Pact became extinct.

NATO contrastingly survives till today with a double-sized spread now resting on Russia's contracted borders. Its latest members are Sweden and Finland. 

Military rise of China and its propensity to use military force to impose its will on its peripheries in Indo Pacific raised the scepter of an enlarging and escalating "China Threat"   whose tremors are now perceptibly felt beyond Indo Pacific confines.

 NATO Security Vision 1930 takes note of "China Threat" coupling it with the "Russia Threat" to Europe--the Russia-China Axis.

In 2024, Cold War 2.0 is visibly ongoing in Indo Pacific with China as the lead player and Russia post-Ukraine War now actively integrated in collective security exercises with China.

The recent massive China-Russia Joint Military Exercise involving over reported 400 ships & Fighter Aircraft participating in vicinity of Japan was demonstrated to show-off Russia-China Axis military might in war-time scenarios.

Obviously, this Russia-China Axis military response was to counter the US-led and US-crafted bilateral, trilateral and multilateral security groupings that have emerged more sharply since China under incumbent President Xi Jinping switched Chinna's strategies from 'Soft Power' to muscular 'Hard Power', creating multiple flashpoints in Indo Pacific.

Cold War 2.0, reminiscent of Cold War 1.0 in Europe, is now in full swing in Indo Pacific in 2024 which has emerged as a highly "Bipolar Polarized Region'.

Eastern NATO was a concept which kept surfacing from late 1990s is now being actively pursued. Realistically, while Eastern NATO may have not emerged on institutional pattern of NATO, but the US-led security architecture for IndoPacific Security against the "China Threat" is all but in name an Eastern NATO.

Eastern Warsaw Pact also has taken shape in Indo Pacific in wake of Cold War 2.0 when the security linkages of Russia-China-Norh Korea are added. 

Possible candidates as future members of Eastern Warsaw Pact can be assessed as Iran and Pakistan with one or two Central Asian Republics. The China-Pakistan Axis and China-Iran 25years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership are indicators.

Major Concluding observations that need to be made are that (1) Eastern NATO and Eastern Warsaw Pact predominating Indo Pacific security environment, all but as integrated institutionalized structures, is a 'given' (2) Indo Pacific cannot escape the strategic reality of intense military confrontation spawning opposing military alliances arising from bipolar geopolitics as confrontation intensifies (3) Indo Pacific as a highly surcharged explosive bipolar confrontation region would offer no bandwidth for practitioners of neutrality, fence-sitters or multipolarity.

Cold War 1.0 would historically remain as a mere shadow comparatively against Cold War 2.0 more incendiary conflictual flashpoints.  

The "China Threat" in Cold War 2.0 is more unpredictable and potent than what was the Russian Threat to Europe in Cold War1.0.