INDO PACIFIC STRATEGIC GEOMETRIES AND BALANCE OF POWER IN 2024

The United States enjoyed a favorable Balance of Power during Cold War I when Russia was the prime threat in the Aia Pacific and in my assessment will continue to prevail in Cold War 2.0 when China has emerged as an unrestrained predatory power in the enlarged strategic construct of Indo Pacific.

During Cold War I, the United Staes security architecture rested on what was termed as 'Spokes & Hub' model of United States as the predominant power in the Pacific providing the 'Hub' and the 'Spokes' in the form of the US Bilateral Security Treaties with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,

With US Forces deployed in Forward Military Postures in all these three countries, there existed a spider web of a security network.

Asia Pacific saw no respite from end of Cold War I and the disintegration of Soviet Union.

 Communist China with its exponential military expansion facilitated by United States distraction in Iraq and Afghanistan and US permissiveness on China's WMD proliferation emerged as a predatory power in Western Pacific and intent on prompting US military exit from Asia Pacific.

The emerging and burgeoning China Threat manifested in South China Sea, against Vietnam and the Philippines coupled with escalatory intimidation of Taiwan stimulated revised threat perceptions of China as the prime threat to the United States, US Allies and US Strategic Partners, newly bound together in face of China Threat manifested from India to Korean Peninsula.

Thus emerged the new and enlarged strategic concept of IndoPacific and United States enlarging the operational responsibilities of US Pacific Command with redesignation as US Indo Pacific Command.

 India was included as a Pivotal Power of the new US security architecture which now included the security of the Indian Ocean.

Cold War 2.0 onset had begun, and the United States realized that a new strategic template had to be devised to meet the Chia Threat. The United States took initiatives to forge a multilateral security network to be superimposed on its existing bilateral security treaties network.

In 2024, the enlarged security template in the Indo Pacific with different compositions but with a single aim of 'deterrence' on China's unrestrained aggressive moves revolves on newly devised "Strategic Trilaterals" which encompasses both Allies and strategic partners.

Indo Pacific's US-led 'Strategic Geometries" in 2024 incorporate the QUAD, AUKUS, ANZUS and a host of Staregic Trilaterals.

The newly crafted 'Strategic Trilaterals' include US-Japan -South Korea Trilateral; US-Japan-Australia Trilateral; and the US-Japan-Philippines Trilateral.

Since the China Threat mainly manifests in the maritime domains' multilateral naval exercises amongst the QUAD. AUKUS, ANZUS and the Trilaterals have increased, coupled with air forces and ground forces military exercises.

Opposing this formidable network of US-led 'Strategic Geometries' in the Indo Pacific, China can only boast of the Russia-China Axis and the China-Russia-North Korea Trilateral.

Comparing the overall military potential and geostrategic spread of US-led 'Strategic Geometries' against the limited opposing Chinese strategic security constructs, the overall Balance of Power in Indo Pacific can be assessed as resting squarely with the US-led security architecture, as visible in 2024.

Finally, when Balance of Power assessments are made it is pertinent to include all political, economic and military strengths besides history of cohesiveness and enduring record of Alliance/Strategic Partnerships. 

The United States, taking all of the above into account, has the Balance of Power strongly in its favor for the next few decades till such time Communist China disintegrates like the Soviet Union. In that aftermath also, the United States would reign supreme.

UNITED STATES COMMITTMENT TO GLOBAL STABILITY UNDER THREAT IN EUROPE AND INDO PACIFIC IN 2024-REFLECTIONS

Remembrance Day June 6th, 1944, celebrated on Normandy Beaches on French Northern Coast attended US President Biden and Heads of State of US Allies was a poignant reminder of the thousands. of US lives lost along with those of its Allies to roll back the German Invasion of Europe which commenced in September 1939.

United States commitment to Free & Open Europe and Global Stability manifested itself twice in the 20th Century in the First World War (1914-18) and the Second World War (1939-45).

In both cases United States was a late entrant when Free & Open Europe was seriously threatened by invasion of German Forces.

Similarly, in the Indo Pacific, US Forces fought Japanese Forces from Burma to Japan during Second World War. Soon after, US Forces were to fight and roll-back Chinese Communist armies which overran South Korea.

To those who have never visited the miles of War Cemetries of US Forces along with those of Britain and War Cemetries in Myanmar, Japan and South Korea, can never fathom the heavy cost of US lives sacrificed to ensure that Free & Open Societies flourished secure and stable.

Having visited all these War Cemetries during Battlefield Tour of Normandy Battlefields while attending the British Arm Staff College in 1970 and others as a military diplomat in Japan & South Korea, made me reflect that no other Nation in the world has paid such a heavy price in precious US lives lost in cause of global stability.

Fast forward to 2024, once again both in Europe and Indo Pacific, war-drums are beating noisily by Revisionist Totalitarian Powers.

In Europe, Ukraine stands devastated by the Russian Invasion for the last two years.

In Indo Pacific, Russia's Communist Ally China has made military predatory moves in a wide arc extending from India to Taiwan, Philippines and South China Sea.

In 2024, in a repeat of the war escalatory scenarios reminiscent of World War II, Global Democracies are belatedly engaged in debating as to how to meet the aggressions in Europe and in Indo Pacific.

Reflecting on all of the above, some major lessons of Second World War that are valid in the world of 2024 when the world is facing unbridled military recklessness in Europe and Indo Pacific, are briefly covered in the succeeding paragraphs. 

Chamberlainisque Approaches by Political Leaders of Democratic Countries ragainst Totalitarian Aggression Leads to Emboldenment of Aggressors

In the years preceding Second World War, the world's democratic societies watched helplessly as their political leaders hedged and dithered in facing Hitler's apparent signs to overrun Europe.

Democratic societies were paralyzed into inaction by British Prime Minister's infamous assertion "Peace at any cost in our times'.

What followed was six years of horrendous war with unprecedented devastation from Europe to Southeast Asia and Japan.

Fast forward to 2024, the world is again witnessing Russian Invasion of Ukraine and with threats to invade Poland and the Baltic Republics. Alarmingly, Russian President has threatened use of nuclear weapons

Indo Pacific in 2024 faces the prospects of China's propensity to use military force to change boundaries on its land and maritime boundaries stretching from India to Japan. China is engaged in possible invasion of Taiwan and possibly the Philippines.

The United States after years of 'China Hedging Strategies' and 'Risk Aversion' strategies has in 2024 belatedly realized that Chamberlainisque approaches to manage the China Threat has only "emboldened China" to believe that US Power is on decline.

In the process, the United States has last more than a decade of substantial war-preparedness against the China Threat.

Totalitarian Aggression Can Only be Met Squarely by Solid Alliances of DemocraticNations

The Second World War could not have been won by Britain or France alone. For that matter of fact, even the United States could not have alone won the War.

The War against Germany aided by Italy and Japan could be won only by a solid and integrated Alliance of Democratic Nations led by United States.

In 2024, the above lesson holds even more truer to confront the Russia-China Axis. Democratic Nations have to coalesce into effective military alliance led by United States political, economic and military might.

National Unity & National Cohesiveness an Imperative to Beat Back Totalitarian Aggression

The most significant malaise in Demotic Nations is that in pursuit of liberal ethos, democratic societies stumble overboard in letting anti-national elements sprouting in their societies, These, become vocal in peddling false narratives both due to domestic political compulsions and also under external influences,

What stands out in the history of Second World War was that amongst the US-led Allied Nations, all democracies, the highest of National Cohesiveness and National Unity stood shining bright.

Reflections Pertinent in 2024

As 'war clouds' hover over Europe and more prominently in the Indo Pacific, United States and its democratic Allies and its 'Democratic Strategic Partners' need urgently to clear their 'lens' on the mounting China Threat.

The China Threat since 2012 with the ascent of President Xi Jinping, and his garbing all the levers of state control, with ruthless extermination of even his Foreign Minister and Defence Minister has acquired 'Hitlerian Contours'.

When the above is coupled with China's historical propensity to use force to settle disputes and defy international conventions, the Global World Order and its Democratic Nations cannot become mute spectators.

The inevitability of World War III can only be averted once again by an alliance of global democracies led by United States with its global military presence standing up to the war scenarios inflicted by Russia in Europe and China in the Indo Pacific.

The United States has to rise to the challenges of both beating back once again 'Hitlerianism' shattering global stability and also the "divisiveness" being inflicted by them within America.

RUSSIA-CHINA STRATEGIC ALLIANCE CAN BE UNRAVELED BY UNITED STATES IN ONE DIPLOMATIC MASTERSTROKE

The Russia-China 'Strategic Alliance' which post-Ukraine invasion generates serious concerns from Europe to Indo Pacific in terms of disruptive potential can be unraveled by the United States in one diplomatic masterstroke with Nixonian contours.

Russia and China are not inseparable strategic "Siamese Twins" joined at the hip. They seemingly stand glued at the hip due to convergent 'siege mentality' fears that the United States is intent on dismantling both these gigantic Communist States.

Russia would never have moved into the Chinese strategic embrace but for US 'Cold War Gladiators' on Capitol Hill in Washington. Even after the disintegration of Former Soviet Union they persisted in viewing enfeebled Russia as a 'Critical Threat' to US security interests and global influence.

It needs to be recalled that Russian Foreign Minister Kozyrev in the 1990s termed Russia as the 'Natural Ally' of the US & West.

United States narcisstic obsession with China which had its roots in the 1930s and earlier, in United States 'Threat Assessments' on Russia overlooked the looming and threatening 'China Threat' whose central thrust in late 1990s was an exponential buildup of China's military power unnerved by Gulf War I and US Humanitarian Interventions in Serbia,

Realistic US diplomatic and strategic planning then should have dwelt on a 'Spectacular Reset' of United States Russia Policy.

But that was not to be. Instead of besieging Russia by a 'NATO Creep' towards Russia's borders and allaying Russian strategic fears, the United States continued vainly for two decades to assist China to integrate itself into the world order. China double-timed the United States all along.

US diplomatic miscalculations have inflicted heavy strategic and geopolitical on American national security, especially in the Indo Pacific.

United States by not resetting its Russia policy in the first two decades of the 21st Century is now faced in 2024 with a US-created "Predatory Monstrous China" which has ensnared a strategically helpless and US-isolated Russia.

Concluding, all is not lost for the United States. The United States needs to take the diplomatic initiative for a bold and substantive political reachout to Russia.

If the United States by a Nixonian masterstroke could wean away Communist China from the Former Soviet Union, the United States has the diplomatic skills and leverage in 2024 to wean away Russia from the China-embrace and unravel the Russia-China Axis.

UNITED STATES A AND INDIA" ROBUST STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP" AGAINST CHINA-THREAT: 21ST CENTURY GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVES

In my book 'China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives' published in 2015, the following excerpts resonate more loudly in 2024, when the China Threat to Indo Pacific security has acquired unprecedented threatening contours:

• "The evolving China-centric geopolitics dynamics of the coming decades of the 21st Century, especially in relation to   Indo Pacific Asia's security and stability, would compel the United States and India to finally take an unambiguous call on the China Threat that both tend to push under the carpet".
• "The robustness of the call that both the United States and India make on the China Threat would determine the future standings, one as the global Superpower, and the other as an 'Emerged Power' on its ascendancy as a global player or global power."

Continuing further on, before analyzing China Threat related postures of United States and India, following three more excerpts, are pertinent:

• "Is the United States uncertain about India's strategic directions or is it that United States planners are accustomed to deal with a country of India's size and potential only in adversarial equations? It is for United States to deal with its strategic dilemmas."
• "In the 21st Century, it is the United States which has the compelling imperatives to make a firmer call and make its strategic choices between India and China."
• "The United States in the 21st Century cannot keep maintaining that in its perceptions India is an existential counterweight to China strategically. If that counterweight is seriously threatened by China-Pakistan Axis then where does the United States get an alternative existential counterweight from within Asia? Does the United States have any credible answers to this critical question."

My observations on the crux points made above are briefly laid out below.

China Threat:Unambiguous Calls by United States and India

The United States and India both factor-in in the China Threat in their strategic and military planning. However, both shrink from declaring it as such in loud and vocally resounding tones.

The United States has attempted smoothening the contours of the China Threat by use of nebulous terms like 'Engagement', 'Congagement' and now 'China is US Main Competitor' and De-Risking'as opposed to 'Delinking'.

India sends strategically ambiguous signals as it still cavorts with China-dominated anti-US groupings like Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS and Rusia-India-China Trilateral unmindful that the China Threat is the prime and potent threat to India's security.

India also sends ambiguous signals when officially it keeps on harping on 'Multipolarity', and 'Multilateralism'. Both meaningless terms in a heavily polarized world generated by the China Threat.

Robustness of US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership

The "Robustness' of this pivotal partnership can be said to be in good health judging solely by over half a dozen institutionalized joint mechanisms established encompassing intelligence-sharing, communications and logistics. The number of joint military exercises have increased.

However, this "Robustness" comes under strain when US top officials make a beeline to Beijing instead of the other way around. Smacks of 'China Appeasement' instead of 'Cina Containment'.

India too must not emphasize only on the 'Boundary Disputes' with China but emphasize on the broader manifestations of China Threat in geopolitical terms.

The latter provides the bedrock of the geopolitical underpinnings of US-India Strategic Partnership.

United States Needs Realistic Appraisal of India's Strategic Directions in 21st Century

Admittedly, India makes the deciphering of India's 'Strategic Directions' by its foreign policy vocabulary and actions suggestive that India still does not trust the United States despite the robustness of the strategic partnership.

But then, United States on long term appraisal should rest assured that India will continue to be a vibrant democracy. India at no stage in the future could possibly align with Russia and China against the United States.

In my assessment, India's hangover of 'Strategic Ambiguity' is a 'transient phase' which will evaporate as China out of geopolitical compulsions emerges as more aggressive and predatory.

India will surely aspire to be a global Major Power but one working in consonance with United States and the West.

United States Should in its Diplomatic Handling of India Should Ensure 'Equitibility'

Point already stands made in my excerpts quoted above that United States foreign policy planners need being accustomed to deal with India's size and attributes of power not on adversarial terms like China.

This aspect stands most eloquently 

made by US Ambassador Eric Garcetti in a recent interview in New Delhi.

US Ambassador Garcetti stressed that United States should foster an 'Equal Partnership 'with India and in more telling terms advised that "United States foreign policy should liberate from Unconscious Paternalism".

Indians are a very sensitive people and Indian public opinion counts. Indian public opinion is not made in drawing rooms of Lutyens Delhi-- a fact that US should recognize.

United States has No Other Existential Counterweight to China in Asia but India.

There is a higher call on the United States to place implicit trust in India and its strategic directions in relation to the China Threat, simply, because no other Asian country offers to the United States an option of an alternative existential counterweight to China Threat.

India's national power attributes under PM Modi have blossomed in the last ten years both militarily and economically.

It was not for nothing that in the past the United Sates at highest levels asserted that the US was committed to assist India in emerging as a Major Power.

Concluding Observations

United States and India are best equipped to deal with the enveloping China Threat in IndoPacific despite power differentials.

In the American security template for Indo Pacific security, India has marshalled its resources to confront the China Threat on its Himalayan Borders and China's intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean.

India is in a unique position to tie down China both on land and sea unlike any other US Allies.

NATO and European Allies of United States are distant from Indo Pacific to effectively confront the China Threat.

India's emergence as a 'Robust Military Power' contributes handsomely to checkmate the China Threat.

At the turn of the Milennium, in my very first Paper on US-India Strategic Partnership, I had termed it as the "Advent of the Inevitable",

The United States and India should unreservedly bow to this "Inevitable" and nurture it to robustly checkmate the China Threat before it assumes Hitlerian proportions.

CHINA ENCASHES RUSSIA'S COMPICITY IN ITS TAIWAN INVASION PLANS: STRATEGIC IMLICATIONS

China after "No Limits" military and logistic support provided for Russia's faltering Ukraine invasion is now set to 'encash' as quid pro quo by Russia's military involvement and complicity in Chinese invasion plans of Taiwan.

Russia in normal course should have kept itself distant from any involvement in China's invasion plans for invasion of Taiwan as such a misadventure risks United States military intervention to protect Taiwan.

The ensuing US-China armed conflict in content and dimensions would ordinarily be limited and confined to China-centric dimensions. It would not impact or impinge on Russian national security interests in its Far East territories or Pacific.

Russian complicity and assisting China in its Taiwan invasion plans 'enlarges and escalates' the dimensions to the level of an armed conflict between the China-Russia Axis versus United States & Allies. Severe global and regional strategic implications ensue in its wake.

Can Russia back-out from the eventuality of involvement in China's Tiwan invasion plans? This is highly unlikely due to Russia's geopolitical and strategic compulsions and total dependence on China economically and militarily.

That this contingency is a strategic reality is borne out by recent testimonies by highly placed Pentagon and CIA officials in US Congressional hearings last week. They asserted that the United States Administration was seized with assessments of an eventuality of a 'Two Front' War' scenario with China in Western Pacific and Russia in Europe.

United States strategic concerns arise from a spate of Joint China-Russia Navy and Air Force exercises in Western Pacific simulating amphibious warfare of the type that would be employed by China for Taiwan invasion.

China's recent surge to hoard strategic Materiels from oil, gas, military hardware war wastage reserves and gold & silver to tide over global economic sanctions that would accrue in case of Taiwan invasion

Russia is unlikely to assist China with provision of active Russian Army troops for invasion of Taiwan. But Russian Navy and Russian Air Force missions in Western Pacific providing cover to China's invasion of Taiwan cannot be ruled out.

Russia could as a prelude to Chinese invasion of Taiwan could undertake diversionary provocations military operations in Europe to divide attention and focus of United States and NATO. Finland and even Poland could be targets of Russian diversionary attacks.

To limit Japan's participation in any US military intervention to defeat Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russia could escalate by military deployments and provocations against Japan's Northernmost Island Hokkaido.

The Korean Peninsula also offers China and Rusia as a theater of diversionary attacks using North Korea as proxy.

The extensive geographical contiguity that exists between China and Russia enables them to provide 'strategic depth' to each other in a war-scenario and also to protect each other's Rear Flanks'.

Strategic sanity should rule out any Chinese misadventure of invading Taiwan and Russia being actively complicit in it. Simply, because the overall 'Balance of Power' would be heavily weighted against China and Russia.

China and Russia, singly, cannot militarily prevail over United States and its Allies. Hence, for sheer survival compulsions these two Communist autarkies are forced to band together. 

But then, with two megalomanic Communist Dictators sitting in power in Beijing and Moscow with a propensity for armed conflict to stay in power, reinforced with their unbridled military and nuclear arsenals, 'Strategic Sanity' cannot be dreamt of.

Prudence is the batter part of valor and hopefully comes into play to avert what could evolve into a horrendous World War III !!