The United States enjoyed a favorable Balance of Power during Cold War I when Russia was the prime threat in the Aia Pacific and in my assessment will continue to prevail in Cold War 2.0 when China has emerged as an unrestrained predatory power in the enlarged strategic construct of Indo Pacific.
During Cold War I, the United Staes security architecture rested on what was termed as 'Spokes & Hub' model of United States as the predominant power in the Pacific providing the 'Hub' and the 'Spokes' in the form of the US Bilateral Security Treaties with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,
With US Forces deployed in Forward Military Postures in all these three countries, there existed a spider web of a security network.
Asia Pacific saw no respite from end of Cold War I and the disintegration of Soviet Union.
Communist China with its exponential military expansion facilitated by United States distraction in Iraq and Afghanistan and US permissiveness on China's WMD proliferation emerged as a predatory power in Western Pacific and intent on prompting US military exit from Asia Pacific.
The emerging and burgeoning China Threat manifested in South China Sea, against Vietnam and the Philippines coupled with escalatory intimidation of Taiwan stimulated revised threat perceptions of China as the prime threat to the United States, US Allies and US Strategic Partners, newly bound together in face of China Threat manifested from India to Korean Peninsula.
Thus emerged the new and enlarged strategic concept of IndoPacific and United States enlarging the operational responsibilities of US Pacific Command with redesignation as US Indo Pacific Command.
India was included as a Pivotal Power of the new US security architecture which now included the security of the Indian Ocean.
Cold War 2.0 onset had begun, and the United States realized that a new strategic template had to be devised to meet the Chia Threat. The United States took initiatives to forge a multilateral security network to be superimposed on its existing bilateral security treaties network.
In 2024, the enlarged security template in the Indo Pacific with different compositions but with a single aim of 'deterrence' on China's unrestrained aggressive moves revolves on newly devised "Strategic Trilaterals" which encompasses both Allies and strategic partners.
Indo Pacific's US-led 'Strategic Geometries" in 2024 incorporate the QUAD, AUKUS, ANZUS and a host of Staregic Trilaterals.
The newly crafted 'Strategic Trilaterals' include US-Japan -South Korea Trilateral; US-Japan-Australia Trilateral; and the US-Japan-Philippines Trilateral.
Since the China Threat mainly manifests in the maritime domains' multilateral naval exercises amongst the QUAD. AUKUS, ANZUS and the Trilaterals have increased, coupled with air forces and ground forces military exercises.
Opposing this formidable network of US-led 'Strategic Geometries' in the Indo Pacific, China can only boast of the Russia-China Axis and the China-Russia-North Korea Trilateral.
Comparing the overall military potential and geostrategic spread of US-led 'Strategic Geometries' against the limited opposing Chinese strategic security constructs, the overall Balance of Power in Indo Pacific can be assessed as resting squarely with the US-led security architecture, as visible in 2024.
Finally, when Balance of Power assessments are made it is pertinent to include all political, economic and military strengths besides history of cohesiveness and enduring record of Alliance/Strategic Partnerships.
The United States, taking all of the above into account, has the Balance of Power strongly in its favor for the next few decades till such time Communist China disintegrates like the Soviet Union. In that aftermath also, the United States would reign supreme.
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