APEC 2023 SIDELINE SUMMIT OF AMERICAN & CHINESE PRESIDENTS YIELDS N GAME-CAHNGERS ON CONFLICTUAL ISUES

Expectedly, the APEX 2023 Sideline Summit at San Francisco on November 15, between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping was a tepid Apex Meet, despite nearly a year-long preparatory effort by US Cabinet -level officials.

Noticeably, Chinese President was vocal on Plaet Earth being big enough for both United States and China as Global Powers to coexist and that China was ready to partner with United States.

The above allusion seems to echo what then US President Obama made of a US-China 'Global Dyad', which was globally rejected.

That no major breakthroughs emerged at the Summit on major conflictual issues, reflects the extreme 'Strategic Distrust' that continues to pervade US-China relations.

If the measure of political successes of such Sideline Summits at U-China apex level can only be measured by 'small niblings' then restoration of US-China military ties, Drugs Control cooperation, dialogue on Artificial Intelligence and increase in aviation flights were the only achievement.

Taiwan continues to divide United States and China more intensely as China has intensified military and political coercion. China did not hold out any guarantees that United States desired to lower the brinkmanship.

Some had expected that on South China Sea, some Maritime Control format may emerge. It has not been so.

On the major global crisis in November2023, the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza, the United States asked China to prevail over Iran to restrain both Hamas and Hezbollah, both Iran's proxy armed militias.

Similarly, North Korea issue which is major concern for US Allies, Japan and South Korea, no observations were made by the Chinese President at the Summit.

Surprisingly, no reports have emanated whether Russian Invasion of Ukraine, now nearly two years old, was discussed by the two Presidents. Though, the United States has been broaching with China that it was China that is continuing the lifelines for Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The United Staes has not obliged China with any removal of high-technology restrictions which Chinese President did mention during the Summit.

Therefore, the only major takeaway from this Summit can be analyzed as 'Risk Reduction' which would emanate from direct military-to-military contacts and at apex level in terms of crisis.

Concluding, even 'Risk Reduction' having been achieved is debatable, as China by available indicators is in no mood to oblige President Biden in a presidential election year. 

Similarly, US President Biden, with an intensifying 'Hard Line' sentiment against China prevailing in United States across the entire political spectrum, could only indulge in what can best be termed as 'China Management'. No China demanded concessions conceded.

   

SIDELINES SUMMIT BETWEEN US PRESIDENT BIDEN & CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING AT APEC 2023 MEET: PROSPECTS

The APEC Meet underway in San Francisco is being avidly watched as US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to have a Summit Meet on November 15, on the sidelines of this otherwise Asia Pacific economic grouping which has no security component.

In terms of prospects, no major breakthroughs can be expected in the frosty US-China relations now spanning two different US Presidents.

At best, both the American and Chinese Presidents, would strive to restore some normalcy in the tense and conflictual confrontation that exists in the Indo Pacific between a conflictual propensity-prone China and a US-led security architecture checkmating China.

US-China economic relations also are strained by multiple economic sanctions and technology restrictions imposed by United States in response to many Chinese security provocations in Asia Pacific.

Prospective analysis in terms of which of the two Nations---United States or China comes with more strength-full leverages to the Sidelines Summit, one would assert that it is the United States.

The United States displayed that despite its strategic distractions in Ukraine and Israel-Hamas War in Gaza, the United States has the will and strength to play the dominant role in Indo Pacific.

China globally stands in the wrong corner over Ukraine by siding with Russia and so also in the Gaza War by siding with Hamas because of China's security relationship with Iran.

The US economy under President Biden has been resilient whereas the Chinese economy under President Xi Jinping has entered a sluggish curve.

Prospectively therefore, one can expect United States and China to agree to cosmetic changes to restore security and military-to-military communication link;, the United States holding stronger cards will not come out with any game-changer strategic or economic concessions to indulge China.

UNITED STATES-INDIA 2+2 MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE NEW DELHI NOVEMBER 2023 : CAN INDIA MEASURE UP TO AMERICAM EXPECTATIONS?

The 5th US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue due to start on November 10, 2023, acquires significant geopolitical contours when analyzed in context of two ongoing major armed conflicts going on in Ukraine and Gaza in which the United States is involved in a major way.

The United States would expect from India as its "Key Strategic Partner" to adopt more "Key, Notable & Substantive" geopolitical and security postures contributive to US national security interests in the Middle East conflict contingencies. 

Can India with its preferred fixations on multipolarity as a foreign policy precept measure up to United States expectations?

Initially, it needs to be highlighted that the very basis of evolution of the now so-titled and so -evolved over two decades   US-India Global Comprehensive Stategic Partnership is shared strategic convergences on major global issues threatening global and regional security.

Major ongoing armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza War threaten both regional and global security and peace. This strategic reality is not open to differing interpretations.  

Unlike in Ukraine Invasion by Russia, the United States has reacted with major military deployments of US Forces as pre-emptive measures by Iran to escalate and enlarge the war on Israel. The United States is intensely committed to security of Israel.

Iran has merged as a major actor against the United States not only with its nuclear weapons arsenal but also weaponizing Islamist Armed Militias like Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah operating in Southern Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen.

These Iran -controlled Armed Militias are heavily armed and in possession of Rockets arsenals. Hamas and Hezbollah plague Israel security with a Two Front Threat. They also undermine US security interests in Middle East in favor of Iran.

The lurking danger in November 2023 is that Iran may be sucked into escalating this War against Israel and United States, as prospects increase of Hamas being liquidated by Israel.

In the above eventuality, India faces serious policy predicaments which can best be summed-up in the following questions: (1) Can India strategically afford to adopt a neutral stand in an escalated war in which United States could be sucked-in? (2) Is India ready to dispense with its fairly good relationship with Iran drawn into a War with United States and Israel? (3) Would India be in a position to withstand the geopolitical and economic costs of adopting a neutral stance in the event of a Middle East War?

India has unlike the Ukraine Invasion, surprisingly but realistically, taken a clear stand by PM Modi asserting that "India stands with Israel". India has not adopted an ambiguous stand when it came to Israel when contrasted with that of Ukraine.

Therefore, if India has asserted that it stands with Israe and the United State is committed to Isreal's security and existence at all costs, it is logical that India's policy adoptions in event of war in Middle East would be congruent with that of the United States "Short of committing troops on the ground".

The United States on the eve of the Meet has officially declared that it is for India to make its decisions.

Hopefully, India would be able to rise up to United States expectations by fulfilling provisions of all the US-India Defence Arrangements signed like BECA, COMCASA and more notably LEMOA. 

 

 

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC DIMINUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON CHINA'S MILITARY BRINKMANSHIP IN INDO PACIFIC REGION 2023

Russia's strategic diminution in the wake of its stalemated ill-advised invasion of Ukraine can be analyzed as robbing China of much of China's fire-spitting aggressive brinkmanship in Indo Pacific, noticeably evident with Chinese Foreign Minister's dash to Washington and overtures to US for restoration of military ties.

Till last month, all roads led to Beijing with a flurry of visits by top US Biden Administration officials including Secretary of State Blinken and Commerce Secretary to China.

This trend now seems to have been reversed with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi dash to Washington for talks with Secretary of State Blinken and even a brief meet with President Biden.

China has advanced reasons for above as preparatory moves for possible Chinese President Xi Jinping's participation in APEC Summit in San Francisco in November 2023.

Couple of years back, in my South Asia Analysis Papers, I had analyzed how China and Russia as a concretized Russia-China Axis contributed to secure their respective 'rear flanks' in confrontation with United States & Allies.

Firmly believe that in 2023 and beyond, with Russia's strategic diminution and economic sluggishness due to Ukraine war-costs, Russia like yesteryears, stands enfeebled to provide that 'rear-flank' security cover to China's military confrontations with US &Allies/Strategic Partners in Indo Pacific Region, as visible in end-2023.

Resulting from the above, what are China's options in Indo Pacific?

China cannot afford to "lose face" in Indo Pacific by a climbdown in its aggressive confrontation with the United States both for external reasons and more significantly for domestic political reasons.

So how does China script its strategic stances in 2024 and beyond?

In my assessment, China will adopt a two-pronged strategy "copying" United States current China-strategy of operating on two planes. 

China at the global level would like to be perceived as United States 'strategic-equal' by striking reasonable strategic postures with United States and at on a second lower plane resorting to intensification of its military confrontation for 'optical photo-ops' against Japan, India and the Philippines.

Contextually, the above China-perceived strategy is likely to "misfire" when in US strategic circles the majority debate suggest that United States is now capable of "Combatting Two and a Half Military Threats".

This includes dealing with two major threats of Russia and China and a possible military contingency elsewhere.

China much to its regret, has also to factor-in the reality that within the United States there persists bipartisan support for strong and firm US 'Hard Line' policies on China.

The above is conclusively reflected in China-policy assertions made by US Presidential Probables, both Democratic and Republican.

Hence, US Presidential Election year offers no solace to China in terms of US China-policy. China can be expected, however, to resort to Hybrid Warfare strategies within USA as it did in last presidential elections.

China's past historical record illustrates that China will not be deterred by any of the above factors working against it. 

China with a 'Compulsive Reflex Syndrome' can be expected to plunge the Indo Pacific Region in 2024 into more strategic disruptions by aggressive predatory moves!!!

UNITED STATES MUST GUARD AGAINST STRATEGIC NAIIVETY IN SUCCUMBING TO CHINA'S OVERTURES TO RE-ESTABLISH MILITARY RELATIONS

Contextually, when the United States is not geopolitically or strategically beleaguered either by Russia's invasion of Ukraine or the Hamas-Israel War on Gaza, or, even by China's continued predatory moves in South China Sea, it would be the height of United States strategic naivety to succumb to China's overtures to re-establish military relations.

China is currently engaged in such overtures holding out the carrot of an Xi-Biden Meet on the sidelines of the forthcoming APEC Meet in San Francisco.

US President Biden unexpectedly opted for even a more strident 'Hard Line' policies on China than his predecessor President Trump and put China on notice that strong bi-partisan support exists within United States against China for constantly undermining US national security interests.

It was on the strength of strong bipartisan support within United States on Hard-Line policies on China that encouraged Indo Pacific nations to team-up with United States against a commonly perceived China Threat.

Then what is prompting the United States to lose the 'Perceptional War' against China by seemingly cozying-up to China when it is China that is more beleaguered geopolitically arising from its unconditional support of Russia over Ukraine?

In 2023, a larger part of the world except Islamic countries are lined up in support of the United States than behind Russia or China.

The United States would be utterly strategically naive if its policy establishment assesses that by restoring military relations with China, the United States may be able to wean China away from its Russian embrace.

The United States must recognize that in terms of United States long-term national security interests it is 'strategically wise' for United States to wean away Russia from China's strategic embrace than persisting in US flawed policy-aims of weaning away China from Russia.

The United States must seriously debate the perceptional strategic losses that would accrue to United States on QUAD and other nations in Indo Pacific of any perceptional shifts to "rehabilitate" China in its policy formulations at this stage.

Pointed out repeatedly in my writings on US-China relations for two decades was a singular warning that United States cannot adopt a 'two-level' China-policy, At the first level raising the scepter of a China Threat amongst Indo Pacific countries to join the US-led posse against China and concurrently at the second level cozying-up to China because of its misperceived and flawed Russia-policy.

For Indo Pacific nations, it is China that is a more live and potent threat than Russia. This applies more significantly to Japan and India.

The United States has to strategically choose between 'respecting the strategic sensitivities' of the main pillars of its Indo Pacific Security Edifice or succumbing in strategic naivety to Chinese overtures whose end-aim is to drive wedges between United States and Japan and India.

China is a 'sworn enemy 'of the United States as much as it is of Japan and India. The United States in 2023 or beyond has no strategic bandwidth to re-indulge in China Hedging policies of yester years. 

 America 'take your pick'!!