IS EASTERN NATO IN OFFING? NATO OPENS LIAISON OFFICE IN JAPAN

China needs to blame itself for hastening the likelihood of an 'Eastern NATO' emerging as NATO-type security alliance in Western Pacific in response to its persistent warmongering over Taiwan and its aggression in South China Sea.

The likelihood of an Eastern NATO coming into existence figured spasmodically in global strategic analyses for last three decades. These speculative analyses were directly related to the intensity of the 'China Threat' perceived by the Nations of the Western Pacific and the United States as the Net Security Provider of the Region.

The China Threat intensity in 2023 has started to figure alarmingly in threat perceptions of United States and its key Allies in Western Pacific, namely, Japan and South Korea.

In response to China Threat assuming threatening proportions the United States under three Presidents has pivoted back to Indo Pacific security in a hyper-active posture--- reinforcing security ties with Japan & South Korea, reclaiming Philippines in its security fold and enlarging its erstwhile US Pacific Command to US Indo Pacific Command, recognizing the significance of the Indian Ocean and India to Western Pacific security.

Contextually, United States reviving the QUAD in 2017 and thereafter forging AUKUS has to be seen in the above context.

In tandem, the China Theat started figuring as a 'Threat Perception' in NATO planning. In NATO Document 'NATO Blueprint 2030' China found mention as a 'Threat' more specifically to NATO'S Southern Flank and East Mediterranean.

NATO'S Major Members like France, UK and Germany have legitimate security interests in Indian Ocean security and in South China Sea being contested by China.

In the above perspective, NATO Secretary General had visited Japan and South Korea some months back for high level consultations.

Japan and South Korea have been invited to attend NATO Vilnius Summit later this year along with Australia and New Zealand.

NATO therefore opening a 'Liaison & Coordination Office' in Tokyo and Japan willing to host NATO Liaison & Coordination Office in its capital significantly indicates that there is a growing synergy between NATO, a Euro-centric Security Alliance with the US Security Architecture in Western Pacific.

Opening of a NATO Liaison & Coordination Office in Tokyo would facilitate closer coordination between NATO and Japan and South Korea. To this could be added Philippines too based on recent indicators.

China has reacted sharply to this development and the growing strategic proximity of Japan and South Korea after decades of mistrust.

Could this be the harbinger of an 'Eastern NATO' coming into existence? The present development is pregnant with such a possibility.

Concluding, it needs to be stressed that NATOs more intense linkages with Western Pacific Allies of United States adds one more significant layer to the US-led extended deterrence against the looming China Threat in Indo Pacific.

UNITED STATES POLITICAL WILL CAN BE GRAVELY TESTED IF CHINA LAUNCHES MILITARY INVASION OF TAIWAN

China's military invasion of Taiwan has been an ongoing reality whose imminence in 2023 acquires a menacing urgency for China post-Ukraine and the 'Strategic Hemming-in' of China generated by United States crafted China-centric security architecture in Western Pacific and Indo Pacific Region as a whole.

China's response on the rebound focusses on a two-pronged strategy against the United States-led security alliances and groupings like QUAD & AUKUS.

China's exponential military upgradation and honing of its war-waging capabilities is also accompanied by Hybrid Warfare of creating domestic political turbulence in USA, Japan & and also drive wedges/ uncertainties between United States and Major allies and partners like Japan, Australia and India.

China's 'Military Invasion' of Taiwan is a "CERTAINTY' which cannot await US military estimates that China will only be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Analytically, it is assessed, that in 2023, the United States has in place military deployments and strength both of its own and that of its Allies, to thwart China's invasion plans of Taiwan and should China does invade Taiwan in a lightning strike, the United States can militarily force China to recoil.

The United States Armed Forces have prevailed in all wars of 20th & 21st Centuries and where victories were denied like in Vietnam and Afghanistan, it was due to lack of American 'Political Will' and 'Political Micro-management' of military operations by Washington civilians, as often reflected in my past writings.

The crucial question in 2023 is therefore whether the United States can display the 'Political Will' should China impulsively launch military invasion of Taiwan anytime now? 

Many imponderables prevail, but the United States has traditionally shown remarkable resilience to take 'Hard Decisions'.

In 2023 and months to follow the United States 'Political Will' is likely to be tested gravely as China's President Xi Jinping inpelled by his'Great China Dream' unwiitingly provokes the United States strategic forbearance.

Notwithstanding the above, Major Asian Powers and in capitals of the Indo Pacific Region there is an 'Expectancy' that the United States should not await being prodded by China but act decisively to exhibit its resolve as China like all bullies undrstands only the language of force applied with firm resolve.

As an initial display of United States 'Political Will' the US President should declare that America's "ONE-CHINA POLICY IS DEAD" and that Taiwan is a Sovereign Country !!!

PHILIPPINES PIVOTS BACK TO UNITED STATES IN 2023 DUE INTENSIFYING CHINA THREAT

Significant for Indo Pacific Security against the pervasive China Threat in the region, the Philippines belatedly has made a pivot back to the United States security architecture in the Western Pacific. 

The Philippines under new President Marcos Jr has granted United States access to a total of nine military bases against five earlier.

In 1992, the Philippines Senate by a majority of "one vote' only ended the lease of US major military bases at Subic Bay Naval Base and Clarkes Air Force Base where more than 20,000 US miliary personnel were based permanently in return for sizeable US economic aid.

By 1998, Philippines revised its stance. Without giving permanent bases it signed agreements with United States for rotational 'Visiting Forces' access to five bases both for rotational presence and Joint Military Exercises.

During this 30 years gap, the Philippines was trying to balance its relations with China sitting menacingly on its doorsteps.

China tried its best to drive a wedge between United States and Philippines by trade and economic inducements. China also focused subtly on Filipino sensitivities on national sovereignty. It seems to have worked for China for some years.

China in tandem however did not restrain its aggressive impulses in occupying Filipino Islands/Reefs in South China Sea and other maritime encroachments in Filipino maritime domains.

This was markedly so after 2012 with ascendancy of Xi Jinping as President of China. Due to Filipino domestic political dynamics the looming China Threat stood relegated in national security policy.

The Philippines new President Marcos Jr soon after assuming office paid a visit to China. Seemingly, President Marcos Jr returned convinced that in interests of Filipino national security interests against intensifying China Threat, it would be prudent for the Philippines to pivot back to United States security fold.

The Philippines finally recognized that the Nation's security against the China Threat could best be secured by an unambiguous pivot back to United States strategic fold.

The strategic spin-off has been a significant rebound for United States Rotational Military Presence in Philippines where now against the earlier access to five bases, the United States will have now access to four more military bases.

Reportedly, these additional four bases are in North Philippines facing Taiwan and disputed South China Sea Islands.

The United States makes significant geopolitical and strategic gains with Philippines granting access to a total of nine military bases for US Military Forces.

The Philippines stands to gain strategically and economically with its pivot back to United States fold shedding its strategic ambiguities. Surely, greater US financial assistance will flow-in.

In tandem, countries like Japan would also follow suit by enhancing security and economic relations with the Philippines. In fact, Japan has been involved in 'Capacity Building' of the Philippines Navy. 

The United States regains its strategic salience in the Philippines national security calculus in relation the China Threat which has now heated up for the Philippines.

The United States gains geopoliticallly also in that its Western Pacific Outer Perimeter now becomes more security tight and politically robust.

The United States by enhanced accesses to nine military bases in the Philippines is afforded a higher military profile to deal with China-generated 'Explosive Flash Points' in South China Sea and China's brinkmanship on Taiwan Invasion.

Obviously, due to security reasons no firm details of the new Agreement stand released by United States nor the Philippines, but it can be analyzed that United States would gain greater access to establish advanced surveillance and intelligence gathering facilities against China.

The United States can also be expected to pre-position military equipment for contingencies in relation to Taiwan and South China Sea.

China has obviously expressed its deep concerns in Philippines granting increased access to United States to military bases in Filipino territory.

China can be expected to raise turbulence in the South China Sea as in more ways than one China's attempted 'Full Spectrum Dominance' in South China Sea is that much neutralized.

In passing, it needs to be highlighted that Philippines is aware that China Threat is "Real", maybe not an outright military invasion, but manifesting in terms of political and military coercion. Notably, India has contracted to supply three batteries of BRAHMOS Missiles to the Philippines.

Overall, in geopolitical and strategic terms it is a significant gain for US-led Indo Pacific security template.

 

INDIA AND INDO PACIFIC SECURITY---STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES MUST PREDOMINATE GEOPOLITICAL BALANCING

'Geopolitical Balancing' has long been the forte' of the Indian policy establishment but with global geopolitics heavily polarized post-Ukraine Invasion by Russia, no policy spaces exist for geopolitical balancing by India between the United States-led Indo Pacific security order and the much-crystallized Russia-China Axis.

India in 2023 has to make fateful choices wherein Indian policy establishment needs to give a pass to geopolitical balancing between two opposing Power Blocs now set on path of armed confrontation and let more critical strategic imperatives be determinants of India's policy postures.

The Russia-China Axis is now an established strategic reality and cannot be wished away. In terms of India's policy formulations, India long depended on Russia as a trusted friend to prevail over China for restraint in escalation of military confrontation on India's Norhtern Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

Russia with an utter political and economic dependency on China and which dependency is likely to intensify is decreasingly ineffective as an existential countervailing influence on China.

Russia-India relations can be said to have entered a phase of strategic denouement in which both sides have lost most of the strategic convergences which prevailed in earlier decades, markedly so, as the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership has acquired substantial contours.

Today, the picture prevailing is that the United States and India share more strategic convergences on global issue and regional threats, than India shares with Russia.

The United States growingly perceives India as a pivotal strategic partner where with growing 'Strategic Trust', the United States sees merit in giving India access and sharing even 'Critical Technologies' besides designating India as a 'Preferred Strategic Partner'.

Can India therefore persist in continuing to be a member of US-led QUAD and China-dominated SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) at the same time when both are patently Security Groupings strategically aimed at each other?

Can India afford to remain as Member of BRICS wherein India stands singly alone with Russia, China, and South Africa beholden to each other to the extent of Joint Naval Exercises in the Indian Ocean Rim?

Strategic Reality Check would suggest an emphatic NO as the answer. India should therefore dispense with its SCO and BRICS affiliations.

Contextually, therefore, India has critical policy challenges of shedding the ambiguities that plague Indian policymaking, in which " Neutral Stances or Strategic Non-Alignment or Non-Alignment 2.0 are NO LONGER VALID CHOICES"

Concluding, it is strongly emphasized that India as an aspiring Major Global Power must not be seen as 'dithering' in terms of its capability of making 'Hard Strategic Choices'.

India in 2023 is a 'Natural Ally" of the West led by United States and which has in its fold Major West European Nations, Japan, Australia and South Korea with which India has forged Strategic Relationships. 

India' by its demonstrated policy preferences of last two decades has vividly thrown its lot as 'Natural Ally' of the West and should firmly stick to this course otherwise India with its perceived policy ambiguities in the unpredictable global churning currently in play could end up as a strategic loser.     

 

Tod

  

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC DIMINUTION POST UKRAINE IMBROGLIO: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Russia in early 2023 stands diminished in global stature--geopolitically, militarily and economically, after one year of being stalemated in its 'War of Choice' needlessly inflicted on Ukraine by President Putin. This raises grave implications for Indo Pacific security and global security too.

Strategically diminished Russia now stands reduced to utter geopolitical, military and economic dependency on China --the only Major Power extending Russia political and economic support besides funneling military ad for Russian war effort through Third Parties.

Russia's strategic dependency on China which hovers over the Indo Pacific in terms of 'China Threat' topping Threat Perceptions generates significant geopolitical and security dynamics impacting the whole region.

 In global geopolitics, in the pre-Ukraine Invasion period, Russia with its erstwhile Superpower credentials towered above China. The position is now changing.

Russia in 2023 is slipping into a secondary geopolitical position below China. This trend is likely to accentuate as Rusia finds itself more stalemated in Ukraine and Russa's dependency on China becomes more comprehensive.

The dynamics so generated from the above evolving eventuality in Indo Pacific is that China emerges in the pole position in the China-Russia Axis confronting the United States& Allies and Strategic Partners.

In other words, China does not have to share "Strategic Space" in Indo Pacific Region with Russia, moreso, in Western Pacific.

China so elevated in 'Power Stature' is likely to become more aggressive on its peripheries from Idia to Western Pacific as Russia would no longer be in a position to counsel China for patience and restraint.

Conversely, China without the comprehensively "strong backup support" of Russia wakened in geopolitical and military stature may become more restrained in its military adventurism and brinkmanship in Indo Pacific.

In my assessment, it would be against President Xi Jinping's demonstrated character and propensities to deviate from his stated objective of "Great China Dream"   and adopt a trajectory of reconciliation and responsible politics with China's Neighbours stretching from India to Japan and South Korea.

Concluding, with such dynamics in play, the impact of Russia's post-Ukraine strategic diminution, will induce greater polarization in Indo Pacific against China.

 The above is already underway noticeably with South Korea and Philippines returning to the United States strategic fold after some years of flirtation with China. Australia too even with change of political power has indicated its continued strong commitment to US-led Indo Pacific Security Template put into place to counter the disruptive China Theat.