'Geopolitical Balancing' has long been the forte' of the Indian policy establishment but with global geopolitics heavily polarized post-Ukraine Invasion by Russia, no policy spaces exist for geopolitical balancing by India between the United States-led Indo Pacific security order and the much-crystallized Russia-China Axis.
India in 2023 has to make fateful choices wherein Indian policy establishment needs to give a pass to geopolitical balancing between two opposing Power Blocs now set on path of armed confrontation and let more critical strategic imperatives be determinants of India's policy postures.
The Russia-China Axis is now an established strategic reality and cannot be wished away. In terms of India's policy formulations, India long depended on Russia as a trusted friend to prevail over China for restraint in escalation of military confrontation on India's Norhtern Borders with China Occupied Tibet.
Russia with an utter political and economic dependency on China and which dependency is likely to intensify is decreasingly ineffective as an existential countervailing influence on China.
Russia-India relations can be said to have entered a phase of strategic denouement in which both sides have lost most of the strategic convergences which prevailed in earlier decades, markedly so, as the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership has acquired substantial contours.
Today, the picture prevailing is that the United States and India share more strategic convergences on global issue and regional threats, than India shares with Russia.
The United States growingly perceives India as a pivotal strategic partner where with growing 'Strategic Trust', the United States sees merit in giving India access and sharing even 'Critical Technologies' besides designating India as a 'Preferred Strategic Partner'.
Can India therefore persist in continuing to be a member of US-led QUAD and China-dominated SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) at the same time when both are patently Security Groupings strategically aimed at each other?
Can India afford to remain as Member of BRICS wherein India stands singly alone with Russia, China, and South Africa beholden to each other to the extent of Joint Naval Exercises in the Indian Ocean Rim?
Strategic Reality Check would suggest an emphatic NO as the answer. India should therefore dispense with its SCO and BRICS affiliations.
Contextually, therefore, India has critical policy challenges of shedding the ambiguities that plague Indian policymaking, in which " Neutral Stances or Strategic Non-Alignment or Non-Alignment 2.0 are NO LONGER VALID CHOICES"
Concluding, it is strongly emphasized that India as an aspiring Major Global Power must not be seen as 'dithering' in terms of its capability of making 'Hard Strategic Choices'.
India in 2023 is a 'Natural Ally" of the West led by United States and which has in its fold Major West European Nations, Japan, Australia and South Korea with which India has forged Strategic Relationships.
India' by its demonstrated policy preferences of last two decades has vividly thrown its lot as 'Natural Ally' of the West and should firmly stick to this course otherwise India with its perceived policy ambiguities in the unpredictable global churning currently in play could end up as a strategic loser.
Tod
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