Sunday, April 16, 2023

UNITED STATES POLITICAL WILL CAN BE GRAVELY TESTED IF CHINA LAUNCHES MILITARY INVASION OF TAIWAN

China's military invasion of Taiwan has been an ongoing reality whose imminence in 2023 acquires a menacing urgency for China post-Ukraine and the 'Strategic Hemming-in' of China generated by United States crafted China-centric security architecture in Western Pacific and Indo Pacific Region as a whole.

China's response on the rebound focusses on a two-pronged strategy against the United States-led security alliances and groupings like QUAD & AUKUS.

China's exponential military upgradation and honing of its war-waging capabilities is also accompanied by Hybrid Warfare of creating domestic political turbulence in USA, Japan & and also drive wedges/ uncertainties between United States and Major allies and partners like Japan, Australia and India.

China's 'Military Invasion' of Taiwan is a "CERTAINTY' which cannot await US military estimates that China will only be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Analytically, it is assessed, that in 2023, the United States has in place military deployments and strength both of its own and that of its Allies, to thwart China's invasion plans of Taiwan and should China does invade Taiwan in a lightning strike, the United States can militarily force China to recoil.

The United States Armed Forces have prevailed in all wars of 20th & 21st Centuries and where victories were denied like in Vietnam and Afghanistan, it was due to lack of American 'Political Will' and 'Political Micro-management' of military operations by Washington civilians, as often reflected in my past writings.

The crucial question in 2023 is therefore whether the United States can display the 'Political Will' should China impulsively launch military invasion of Taiwan anytime now? 

Many imponderables prevail, but the United States has traditionally shown remarkable resilience to take 'Hard Decisions'.

In 2023 and months to follow the United States 'Political Will' is likely to be tested gravely as China's President Xi Jinping inpelled by his'Great China Dream' unwiitingly provokes the United States strategic forbearance.

Notwithstanding the above, Major Asian Powers and in capitals of the Indo Pacific Region there is an 'Expectancy' that the United States should not await being prodded by China but act decisively to exhibit its resolve as China like all bullies undrstands only the language of force applied with firm resolve.

As an initial display of United States 'Political Will' the US President should declare that America's "ONE-CHINA POLICY IS DEAD" and that Taiwan is a Sovereign Country !!!





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