FRANCE AND INDIA SHARE GSIGNIFICANT STRATEIC CONVERGENCES ON CHINA THREAT TO INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

The China Threat to Indo Pacific security and stability has implicitly been taken cognizance of by France and India during the recent September 2022 visit of French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonne to New Delhi. Going by the assertive statements made on imperatives of a 'Free & Open IndoPacific' the strategic convergences indicate that both France and India intend intensifying jointly their strategic cooperation towards Indo Pacific security. 

Notably, unlike India, which is a late entrant into the domain of Indo Pacific security, France has a military presence in both the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean on its island territories in terms of military, naval and air bases.

France based on Indian Ocean, and Pacific Ocean garrisons has at its command appreciable intelligence acquisition and force projection capabilities in both these Oceans.

France is the only major European Power to have the above capabilities in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

The above contextually becomes vital especially in the South Pacific Islands nations where China's intrusive presence is adding yet another strategic concern to Indo Pacific security.

India on the other hand is a Member Nation of the US-led Quadrilateral Security Initiative comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India. 

The QUAD is for all practical purposes a 'China-Deterrent' security grouping despite QUAD other members deferring to Indian hedging on naming the China Threat by applying non-security labels.

France like India has crafted a web of bilateral security relationships with countries in the Indo Pacific in addition to India like Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand.

Superimposing the French and Indian templates of security relationships the Indo Pacific on each other, what emerges is a mosaic of over-lapping convergences between France and India on Indo Pacific security which can contribute handsomely to the existing US-led security architecture.

In relation to the China Threat, the same now   figures in European Union and NATO perspectives of which France is a member.

 Significant scope therefore lies for both France and India in intensification of their Strategic Partnership with strong convergences on Indo Pacific security and stability.

 

 

INDIA'S STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES TO VIEW R USSIA AND CHINATHROUGH RUSSIA-CHINA AXIS PRISM

India's policy establishment in 2022 has to grapple with the challenge that in terms of policy planning it now has to base its foreign policy perspectives on the emerged reality of the Russia-China Axis as a power bloc in direct confrontation with the Global Democracies headed by the United States and includes India.

Reflecting on this aspect was an assertion made by me in an analytical piece in Eurasia Review onSeptember 1 2022 on the evolving Cold War 2.0 polarised environment, isxna AThe intensifiction of the Russia-Chiisxna Axis andia its implications for Ind

 The most significant points made in this Analysis were 

• Russia and China cannot be the vectors of Indian foreign policy."
• "Inia cannot be on wrong side of global geopolitics and global polarization."
• "During Cold War 2.0 India will have no bandwidth to revel in tadeonal foreign policy shibboleths of Non-Alignment, Non-Alignment, or Strategic Autonomy."
•  "India should not send confusing signals to Global Democracies that it still has lingering affections for the Russia-China Axis."

India can no longer strategically afford to base its policy perspectives on Russia and China as two separate entities but adopt the policy planning prism of the Russia-China Axis as a "Geopolitical Whole" and a   'Strategic Whole'.  

No further proof is required of Rusia-China Axis having been operationalized than the Rusia-China Axis in play on India's doorsteps in South Asia marginalizing India on Afghanistan furthering China's and Pakistan's strategic interests.

Russia's policy profile in the last five years amply denotes that when Russia will be faced to make choices between respecting China's strategic sensitivities and India's strategic sensitivities, Russia would unhesitatingly side with China.

Russia would accord priority to Russia-China Axis strategic objectives in relation to its overall confrontation with United States led Global Democracies than to honor India's lingering strategic obsession that Russia would at best stay neutral.

India opting for 'virtual alignment with Global Democracies' in terms of Indo Pacific security mechanisms does not require amplification. What requires amplification is that India has to make tough choices of openly asserting its strategic preferences and choices.

If Indian PM Modi has boldly shed all the shibboleths of India's Nehruvian foreign policy what holds PM Modi with his indomitable outlook to "DECOUPLE" India from India's self-imposed Russian manacles?

India's intentions, other than 'Risk Aversion' instincts of Nehruvian hangovers lingering in Indian foreign policy establishment, seem to drive India's lingering attachment to Russia despite Russia making its intentions clear on the concretizing of the Russia-China Axis.

Concluding, it needs forceful emphasis that Inda's rise to a Major Global Player can only be facilitated by the Major Powers of Global Democracies and not by Russia and certainly not China and the Russia-China Axis. So why India's diffidence in terms of unambiguous assertion of its strategic preferences and directions?

UNITED STATES-INDIA MILITARY ALLIANCE IS A STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE FOR INDIA IN 2020s CONTEXT

Geopolitical churning and strategic uncertainties generated by the institutionalizing of the Russia-China Axis post-Ukraine, has imposed a Cold War 2.0 Template on global security, and particularly of the Indo Pacific of which India is now a pivotal part.

Unlike Cold War 1.0 where India could revel under Nehruvian delusions of Non Alignment and indulge in moral pontifications to the world, that subterfuge for a non-assertive or 'Risk Aversion' foreign policy is no longer available in evolving Cold War 2.0 Template to India.

Contextually, the arenas of global flash-points during Cold War I.0 were distant from India. In the unfolding Cold War 2.0 scenario the global conflictual flash-points are right at India's doorsteps along the Himalayan Heights astride which an overly aggressive China sits menacingly.

India's Western Security Flank is a threatening flank with possibilities of a Two Front War imposed on India by the China-Pakistan Axis.

The Indian Ocean  which India traditionally predominated stands intruded by Chinese Navy, Chinese Navy submarines and China's sea-dominance being unfolded by access to China's debt-ridden States like Pakistan and Sri Lanka naval bases at Gwadur and Hambantota.

These threatening scenarios raises some crucial questions, namely, (1) Can India on her own defence capabilities without external involvement withstand China's strategic onslaught blueprint against India (2) Can India on her own naval might contend with China's aim to dominate India's sea-flanks? (3) Can India's policy establishment realistically not divine China's strategic blueprint to block India's rise as a Major Power?

Regrettably for India the answers to all of the above crucial questions vitally affecting India's sovereignty and security are in the "negative".

The fast-track military buildup and indigenous defence production initiated by the Modi Government would take another ten years to provide effective conventional deterrence. It has to first catch-up with ten years of "Neglect of India's War Preparedness" of Congress Governments 200-14.

In the context of desirability of military alliances as a bulwark against wayward and aggressive 'Revisionist Powers'the recent Ukraine Invasion by Russia becomes a quotable example. Would Russia have launched a massive invasion of Ukraine if it was a NATO Alliance member-State?

Concluding, when the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership has evolved in 2022 in visible contours of a 'Virtual Military Alliance' with integrated security mechanisms and with India part of QUAD and I2U2 , what holds back India from endowing the 'Virtual Military Alliance' with United States with the honorific of a "US-India Military Alliance"?

This is the realistic 'Strategic Option' for India whose geopolitical and strategic time has arrived. 

UNITED STATES TAKE GLOBAL LEAD IN REPUDIATION OF "ONE-CHINA POLICY"

 Geopolitical dynamics in play in 2022 dictate strong imperatives for the United States to give a global lead in repudiation of the "One China Policy" mistakenly perceived and   adopted since 1972. In the wake of this policy, China has emerged not only as the 'Prime Threat' to US national security but also has emboldened China to contest United States traditional strategic predominance in the Indo Pacific.

The spillover from the above has tempted China to aggressive brinkmanship and conflict on all of China's peripheries from India's Eastern Ladakh borders with China Occupied Tibet to South China Sea.

Repudiation of "One China Policy" by United States would set in motion similar diplomatic de-recognition of "One China Policy" an  lead to full recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign independent nation.

What can China do in the wake of United States repudiation of the "One China Policy" with other nations too following the US lead?

Can China go to war on this count  against the United States  and other countries doing so similarly?

China in 2022, long pointed by me since 2015, is strategically besieged both externally and internally. China has by its aggressive actions is virtually isolated diplomatically. Major Nations of the Indo Pacific are in "diplomatic sufferance" of China sheerly because of United States strategic ambiguities on China.

China's economy is no longer vibrant and possibly downslide  further due to broken supply chains and loss of confidence in China's economic credibility especially as after-effects of China not owning up on Wuhan Virus 19 emanating from biological warfare experiments political power struggle from Wuhan laboratories.

China's domestic upheavals can be predicted arising from possible economic miseries and domestic political power struggles challenging President Xi Jinping.

Contextually therefore China is in no position to go to war on the question of repudiation  by United States of the "One China Policy".

Concluding it needs emphasis that China in decades post-1972 was all along "boxing much above its strategic weight" due United States policies of 'China Hedging" and 'Risk Aversion'. United States by doing so has enabled emergence of China as a demonic aggressive Power with Hitlerian impulses. High time the United States "DE-THRONES"China for its own good and security.

UNITED STATES SHOULD NOT BE STRATEGICALLY DISTRACTED FROM INDO PACIFIC BY UKRAINE WAR

Russia's invasion of Ukraine underway should not lead United States to repeat its historical mistake of the first decade of 21st Century wherein its strategic distractions in Afghanistan and Iraq, in the vacuum so created, facilitated China to build up its Blue Water Navy and predatory dominance over South China perceptions--- both moves creating perceptions of United States as a Declining Power.

China's recent strategic forays deep down in South Pacific Island Nations is a stark reminder how China exploits strategic inattentiveness. United States and Australia had taken for granted that the South Pacific is their area of influence.

China in 2022 has thus acquired monstrous and menacing monstrous military profile, so much so, that it now feels emboldened not only to coerce US Allies and Strategic Partners in Indo Pacific, but also strong enough to directly challenge United States predominance.

US President Biden's recent statements that the United States would focus more on European security amounts to wrong political signalling to both China and to QUAD partners of United States in Indo Pacific. 

China would very much welcome diversion of US strategic focus from Indo Pacific security China-centric challenges to Europe. China would also welcome even the US strategic focus to be divided between Indo Pacific and Europe.

In both cases above US strategic focus, fully or divided, offers China military bandwidth to expand China's military signatures in the Indo Pacific. 

China's recent predatory moves in South Pacific evidently highlights how strategic vacuums enable China to gain strategically.

The United States should leave the 'Defence of Europe' to European Nations  and  goad  'Free Riders' like Germany riding on US security commitments to Europe, to shoulder European security load.

Concluding, it is my assessment that there is and should not be any predicament for United States to choose between European Security and Indo Pacific Security. In the third decade of 21st Century, it is China and its menacing predatory moves in Indo Pacific that vitally threaten US National Security in the coming decades.