INDIA'S STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES TO VIEW R USSIA AND CHINATHROUGH RUSSIA-CHINA AXIS PRISM

India's policy establishment in 2022 has to grapple with the challenge that in terms of policy planning it now has to base its foreign policy perspectives on the emerged reality of the Russia-China Axis as a power bloc in direct confrontation with the Global Democracies headed by the United States and includes India.

Reflecting on this aspect was an assertion made by me in an analytical piece in Eurasia Review onSeptember 1 2022 on the evolving Cold War 2.0 polarised environment, isxna AThe intensifiction of the Russia-Chiisxna Axis andia its implications for Ind

 The most significant points made in this Analysis were 

• Russia and China cannot be the vectors of Indian foreign policy."
• "Inia cannot be on wrong side of global geopolitics and global polarization."
• "During Cold War 2.0 India will have no bandwidth to revel in tadeonal foreign policy shibboleths of Non-Alignment, Non-Alignment, or Strategic Autonomy."
•  "India should not send confusing signals to Global Democracies that it still has lingering affections for the Russia-China Axis."

India can no longer strategically afford to base its policy perspectives on Russia and China as two separate entities but adopt the policy planning prism of the Russia-China Axis as a "Geopolitical Whole" and a   'Strategic Whole'.  

No further proof is required of Rusia-China Axis having been operationalized than the Rusia-China Axis in play on India's doorsteps in South Asia marginalizing India on Afghanistan furthering China's and Pakistan's strategic interests.

Russia's policy profile in the last five years amply denotes that when Russia will be faced to make choices between respecting China's strategic sensitivities and India's strategic sensitivities, Russia would unhesitatingly side with China.

Russia would accord priority to Russia-China Axis strategic objectives in relation to its overall confrontation with United States led Global Democracies than to honor India's lingering strategic obsession that Russia would at best stay neutral.

India opting for 'virtual alignment with Global Democracies' in terms of Indo Pacific security mechanisms does not require amplification. What requires amplification is that India has to make tough choices of openly asserting its strategic preferences and choices.

If Indian PM Modi has boldly shed all the shibboleths of India's Nehruvian foreign policy what holds PM Modi with his indomitable outlook to "DECOUPLE" India from India's self-imposed Russian manacles?

India's intentions, other than 'Risk Aversion' instincts of Nehruvian hangovers lingering in Indian foreign policy establishment, seem to drive India's lingering attachment to Russia despite Russia making its intentions clear on the concretizing of the Russia-China Axis.

Concluding, it needs forceful emphasis that Inda's rise to a Major Global Player can only be facilitated by the Major Powers of Global Democracies and not by Russia and certainly not China and the Russia-China Axis. So why India's diffidence in terms of unambiguous assertion of its strategic preferences and directions?

UNITED STATES-INDIA MILITARY ALLIANCE IS A STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE FOR INDIA IN 2020s CONTEXT

Geopolitical churning and strategic uncertainties generated by the institutionalizing of the Russia-China Axis post-Ukraine, has imposed a Cold War 2.0 Template on global security, and particularly of the Indo Pacific of which India is now a pivotal part.

Unlike Cold War 1.0 where India could revel under Nehruvian delusions of Non Alignment and indulge in moral pontifications to the world, that subterfuge for a non-assertive or 'Risk Aversion' foreign policy is no longer available in evolving Cold War 2.0 Template to India.

Contextually, the arenas of global flash-points during Cold War I.0 were distant from India. In the unfolding Cold War 2.0 scenario the global conflictual flash-points are right at India's doorsteps along the Himalayan Heights astride which an overly aggressive China sits menacingly.

India's Western Security Flank is a threatening flank with possibilities of a Two Front War imposed on India by the China-Pakistan Axis.

The Indian Ocean  which India traditionally predominated stands intruded by Chinese Navy, Chinese Navy submarines and China's sea-dominance being unfolded by access to China's debt-ridden States like Pakistan and Sri Lanka naval bases at Gwadur and Hambantota.

These threatening scenarios raises some crucial questions, namely, (1) Can India on her own defence capabilities without external involvement withstand China's strategic onslaught blueprint against India (2) Can India on her own naval might contend with China's aim to dominate India's sea-flanks? (3) Can India's policy establishment realistically not divine China's strategic blueprint to block India's rise as a Major Power?

Regrettably for India the answers to all of the above crucial questions vitally affecting India's sovereignty and security are in the "negative".

The fast-track military buildup and indigenous defence production initiated by the Modi Government would take another ten years to provide effective conventional deterrence. It has to first catch-up with ten years of "Neglect of India's War Preparedness" of Congress Governments 200-14.

In the context of desirability of military alliances as a bulwark against wayward and aggressive 'Revisionist Powers'the recent Ukraine Invasion by Russia becomes a quotable example. Would Russia have launched a massive invasion of Ukraine if it was a NATO Alliance member-State?

Concluding, when the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership has evolved in 2022 in visible contours of a 'Virtual Military Alliance' with integrated security mechanisms and with India part of QUAD and I2U2 , what holds back India from endowing the 'Virtual Military Alliance' with United States with the honorific of a "US-India Military Alliance"?

This is the realistic 'Strategic Option' for India whose geopolitical and strategic time has arrived. 

UNITED STATES TAKE GLOBAL LEAD IN REPUDIATION OF "ONE-CHINA POLICY"

 Geopolitical dynamics in play in 2022 dictate strong imperatives for the United States to give a global lead in repudiation of the "One China Policy" mistakenly perceived and   adopted since 1972. In the wake of this policy, China has emerged not only as the 'Prime Threat' to US national security but also has emboldened China to contest United States traditional strategic predominance in the Indo Pacific.

The spillover from the above has tempted China to aggressive brinkmanship and conflict on all of China's peripheries from India's Eastern Ladakh borders with China Occupied Tibet to South China Sea.

Repudiation of "One China Policy" by United States would set in motion similar diplomatic de-recognition of "One China Policy" an  lead to full recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign independent nation.

What can China do in the wake of United States repudiation of the "One China Policy" with other nations too following the US lead?

Can China go to war on this count  against the United States  and other countries doing so similarly?

China in 2022, long pointed by me since 2015, is strategically besieged both externally and internally. China has by its aggressive actions is virtually isolated diplomatically. Major Nations of the Indo Pacific are in "diplomatic sufferance" of China sheerly because of United States strategic ambiguities on China.

China's economy is no longer vibrant and possibly downslide  further due to broken supply chains and loss of confidence in China's economic credibility especially as after-effects of China not owning up on Wuhan Virus 19 emanating from biological warfare experiments political power struggle from Wuhan laboratories.

China's domestic upheavals can be predicted arising from possible economic miseries and domestic political power struggles challenging President Xi Jinping.

Contextually therefore China is in no position to go to war on the question of repudiation  by United States of the "One China Policy".

Concluding it needs emphasis that China in decades post-1972 was all along "boxing much above its strategic weight" due United States policies of 'China Hedging" and 'Risk Aversion'. United States by doing so has enabled emergence of China as a demonic aggressive Power with Hitlerian impulses. High time the United States "DE-THRONES"China for its own good and security.

UNITED STATES SHOULD NOT BE STRATEGICALLY DISTRACTED FROM INDO PACIFIC BY UKRAINE WAR

Russia's invasion of Ukraine underway should not lead United States to repeat its historical mistake of the first decade of 21st Century wherein its strategic distractions in Afghanistan and Iraq, in the vacuum so created, facilitated China to build up its Blue Water Navy and predatory dominance over South China perceptions--- both moves creating perceptions of United States as a Declining Power.

China's recent strategic forays deep down in South Pacific Island Nations is a stark reminder how China exploits strategic inattentiveness. United States and Australia had taken for granted that the South Pacific is their area of influence.

China in 2022 has thus acquired monstrous and menacing monstrous military profile, so much so, that it now feels emboldened not only to coerce US Allies and Strategic Partners in Indo Pacific, but also strong enough to directly challenge United States predominance.

US President Biden's recent statements that the United States would focus more on European security amounts to wrong political signalling to both China and to QUAD partners of United States in Indo Pacific. 

China would very much welcome diversion of US strategic focus from Indo Pacific security China-centric challenges to Europe. China would also welcome even the US strategic focus to be divided between Indo Pacific and Europe.

In both cases above US strategic focus, fully or divided, offers China military bandwidth to expand China's military signatures in the Indo Pacific. 

China's recent predatory moves in South Pacific evidently highlights how strategic vacuums enable China to gain strategically.

The United States should leave the 'Defence of Europe' to European Nations  and  goad  'Free Riders' like Germany riding on US security commitments to Europe, to shoulder European security load.

Concluding, it is my assessment that there is and should not be any predicament for United States to choose between European Security and Indo Pacific Security. In the third decade of 21st Century, it is China and its menacing predatory moves in Indo Pacific that vitally threaten US National Security in the coming decades.

QUAD SECURITY DIALOGUE GROUPING SHOULD BE ENLARGED TO QUAD PLUS 3 POST-UKRAINE

Russia's invasion of Ukraine this year not only has endangered European security but significantly creates graver implications for Indo Pacific security   necessitating QUAD to be enlarged by admitting South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia as members of QUAD.

Maintaining that Russian invasion of Ukraine was a Europe-centric security threat not impacting Indo Pacific security would be strategically incorrect. Russia has a seaboard on the Pacific Ocean around Vladivostok and in proximity to South Korea and Japan.

 Russia is also in a Virtual Military Alliance with China which poses exponential threats to Indo  Pacific security. Russian and Chinese strategic convergences focus intensely in 2022 to prompt US military exit from Western Pacific.

Increasingly visible in 2022 are joint Fighter Aircraft  Combat Patrols of Chinese and Russian Air Force in close proximity of Japan and South Korea.  

 Also visible is Chinese Air  Force Fighter aircraft 'buzzing' provocatively  US Air Force, Canadian Air Force and Australian Air Force surveillance planes on routine patrols over South China Sea international airspace.

All of the above are provocatively hostile activities  by a belligerent China and now a belligerent Russia post-Ukraine both in challenging confrontational postures against United States- led QUAD countries.  

The enlarged threat to Indo Pacific security releases urgent imperatives to enlarge the membership of QUAD. 

I would strongly recommend that QUAD be enlarged  to QUAD Plus 3 to include South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia. All of these three countries have pivotal strategic locations in Indo Pacific with special reference to Western Pacific and South East Asia ---all crucial to Indo Pacific security.