AFGHANISTAN AS INDO PACIFIC SECURITY "WESTERN OUTPOST"

Afghanistan's strategic significance as "Western Outpost" for Indo Pacific Security seems to have received little notice while the United States was planning a hurried exit of US Forces from that war-ravaged Nation leaving a 'strategic void' which China seems to be in a tearing hurry to fill.

China with a colonial vice-grip hold over Pakistan has now locked Iran in a strategic embrace of a 25 years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership formailsed in 2021.

China with a "Collusive" Pakistan and a "Permissive" Iran has now positioned itself to motivate Afghanistan with economic largesse' inducements to move into China's orbit, thereby enlarging the China-Pakistan-Iran Trilateral into a China-Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan Quadrilateral.

The above evolving geopolitical grouping creates severe strategic iplications for the United States with China as the contender for global dominance in confrontation with the United States and also serious complications for Indo Pacific Security as a whole.

Reflected in my Tweets to @POTUS was that US Planners when now scrutinising the Indo Pacific Region maps in their War-rooms should be struck by the magnitude of the vast landmass stretching from the Korean Peninsula and extending upto the Eastern Littoral of The Gulf as one geograhical contiguous whole, significantly under China's domination.

In terms of maritime control significance impacting Indo Pacific Security the above configuration facilitates two crucial Naval Bases available to China --- Gwadur in Pakistan and Chah Bahar in Iran. This would facilitate China to dominate the Northern Arabian Sea segment of the Indian Ocean.

The United States to safeguard and protect Indo Pacific security interests can turn the tables on China by elevating Afghanistan's  significance in the US strategic calculus as the 'Western Outpost" of Indo Pacific Security.

US Forward Military Presence (FMP), on the lines of FMPs in Japan and South Korea, positioned in Afghanistan would affored the United States an "Eagles Perch" to sustain its Superpower capability to geopolitically determine events in Pakistan and Iran besides maintaining a "Threat in Being" against China's vulnerable Western Regions.

With such capabilities the Indo Pacific Security Template would not be restricted to containment of China in maritime domains only but also contribute to pre-emption of China's domination of the Eurasian Heartland landmass.

The United States in 2021 would be ill-advised to 'Foreclose" its Afghnaistan strategic options available for containment of Chinese expansionism.

UNITED STATES & RUSSIA SUSTAINED SUMMIT EXCHANGES IMPERATIVE FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Contextually viewing Indo Pacific troubled security environment in 2021 arising from China's unrestrained military aggressiveness and brinkmanship, and placing the same against the backdrop of the United States and Russia having significant stakes in Indo Pacific stability, strong imperatives exist that the Presidents of United States and Russia engage in Summit Meets to review Indo Pacific security.

The Geneva Summit held last week between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Putin needs to be welcomed as a welcome step in this direction. It does not need much emphasis to state that both the United States and Russia have significant stakes in Indo Pacific stability by virtue of being giant littoral States of the Pacfic.

Furthermore, it needs to be singularly highlighted that even at the height of intense US-USSR  Cold War Superpowers  confrontation in theAsia Pacific and sizeable Navy deployments of both these Superpowers in the Pacific, there was a marked restraint by both the United States and Russia not to indulge in needless military adventurism of the type and magnitude that China has been indulging in ever since 2012.

Conteporaneously, Russia in a Strategic Nexus with China gets perceptionally typecasted as "Collusive", and at best, "Permissive" of China's military expansionsim in the Indo Pacific. This dents Russia's image in Asian capitals and that sort of image Russia can ill-afford if it wishes to regain the exalted position of being an 'inependent power centre in gobal affairs'.

Russia also has to be mindful of the strategic reality that China has clashing interests with Russia in Europe, Central Asia, Far East and now in Greater South West Asia  in the vacuum ensuing on exit of US Forces from Afghanistan.

Russia today has no significant leverages over China either to secure Russia against China encroaching on its traditional turfs in Russia's Near Abroad or Russia's Far East where illigal Chinese migrants nearly a million strong have ensconced them.

Nor can Russia exercise restaint on China's military adventurism in Indo Pacific by itself alone. This has led Russia to be tagged as China's 'B Team'.

The UnitedStates comparitively is well placed to impose some deterence on China by virtue of its security architecture in Indo Pacific and especailly with the emergence of the QUAD.

With China inevitably heading into an Armed Conflict with United States, would Russia be willing to underwrite China's military expansionism in Indo Pacific or militarily aid China in a potential War with United States?

The obvious answer is a big NO.

Admittedly it takes two to tango and that the United States has not been able to 'Reset' its Russia-policy in a mould promotive of inducing 'strategic trust' but then contemporary geopolitics dictate that both the United States and Russia  strive to work together and be seen as working together to maintain security and stability in the Indo Pacific.

Towards the above end,  strong imperatives exist for United States and Russia to engage themselves in sustained Summit Meets regularly. 

 

INDIA STRONGLY REAFFIRMS ITS COMMITTMENT TO FREE & OPEN INDO PACIFIC & QUAD

  China-India relations are at the lowest point in 2021 foloowing China's persistent strategy to generate continuing turbulence in India's security environment, military confrontation on the Northern Borders and pussy-footing on de-escalation in Eastern Ladakh post- May 2020 India's pushback at Galwan.

China contextually therefore was cautioned by Indian Foreign Minister in the following telling words: " Now if you disturb peace and tranquillity, if there is intimidation and friction at the border, obviously its going to tell on the relationship. So my honest answer to you is that  I think the relationship (China-India) is at the crossroads. The border tensions cannot continue with cooperation in other areas."

Referring to the QUAD, the Indian Foreign Minister  asserted that  "With passage of time any initiative will mature" and that the "QUAD's agenda is expanding". Moving ahead as to why the QUAD is a strategic necessity the Indian Foreign Minister stated that " So the QUAD fills a gap that cannot be addressed simply by four bilateral relationships aggregated".

The last sentence in my opinion is most noteworthy in that it sums up  India's future directions namely that in view of China's expansionist impulses and China's intransigent moves of subjecting borders with India to ignition point levels, India has no option but to opt for multilateral security initiatives especially in the maritime domains.

The Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh addressing the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meet yesterday asserted that India strongly stands for a 'Free & Open Indo Pacific" and further reinforced it with assertion that India supports "freedom of navigation and overflights in the South China Sea"

Continuing on the South China Sea , the Indian Defence Minister made the following observations: (1) South China Sea developments have attarcted attention beyond the region (2) Code of Conduct negotiations between ASEAN and China would lead to positive outcomes consonnant with international law and UNCLOS (3) Maritime security has become a concern for India and international community (4) Sea Lanes of Communication are essential for peace, security and prosperity of Indo Pacific.

Reinforcing India's approaches to Indo Pacific challenging security environment and India's policy approaches thereon,, the Indian Defence Minister notably stated that  " India strengthened ts cooperative engagements in the Indo Pacific based on converging views and visions of peace, stability and prosperity in the region"I

India has not only been really  pushed into a corner by China's highly provocative  military moves on India's Northern Borders accompanied by China's increasing intrusive naval moves in the Indian Ocean but also alarmed China's maritime creep in South China Sea  which extends upto Malacca Straits at India's doorstep

Therefore, the overall message from India to China is putting China on notice that India will enhance, reinforce and widen its security cooperative engagements in Indo Pacific as manifested by increased security cooperation with ASEAN Nations and more significantly the QUAD.

Significantly, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghai and US Defense Secretary LlyodAustin were attending this Defence Ministers' Summit. 

The import of India's implicit references to China degrading the peaceful security environment in Indo Pacific and South China Sea would have been noted by Chinese Defence Minister.

The United States would be heartened by India's emerging policy stances on Indo Pacific security, the QUAD and India's call for a "Free & Open Indo Pacific"---an Indian resonance of United States policy stances.

ASEAN NATIONS CONTEXTUALLY AT GEOPOLITICAL CROSSROADS ON INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN 2021

ASEAN Nations seem stranded in 2021 at vexing geopolitical crossroads wherein China stands in gross military violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity of nearly half of ASEAN nations, China has been diplomatically successful so far in dividing ASEAN unity, and the ASEAN Nations consequently still  dithering timidly on pro-actively siding with external Major Powers capable of restraining China.

Geopolitical dynamics in a fast churning Indo Pacific security environment offers no luxury of 'dithering' against national or regional security threats. ASEAN as the regional grouping of South East Asia nations has so far not given any indication of a 'pushback' against the China Threat, other than by Vietnam and the Philippines.

Geopolitically, in Indo Pacific Asia of which ASEAN Nations comprise the most crucial strategic segment, and wherein the Chna Threat is most pronounced, Major Powers are coalescing together to form counterweights to restrain China's expansionism.

ASEAN Nations neither individually nor collectively in 2021 seem to have military capabilities to stop China in its tracks of military expansionism. China shows scant regard for UN Conventions or rulings against China on its South China Sea claims as given by The Hague International Tribunal on Philippines case against China.

ASEAN's disunity on vociferous condemnation of South China Sea aggresions by China against Vietnam and the Philippines only emboldened China. But lately when China subjected ASEAN fence-sitters like Indonesia and Malaysia to a continuum of China's widening expansionist designs in South China Sea, some belated moves towards ASEAN's unified approaches against China seem to be in the offing.

Any belated ASEAN unified approaches against China unaccopanied by solid backing by Major Powers external to ASEAN grouping, will not count much with China in 2021, contextually.

Imperatives exist for ASEAN in 2021 to undertake a realistic reading and appraisal of contextual geopolitical dynamics both at the global level and ore specifically in the Inddo PacificRegion.

China in 2021 is in a 'Collision Trajectory' with the United States which is the predominant Global Power and to which Indo Pacific security and stability counts most. From accumulated indicators it seems that China can be expected to be reckless in challenging United States both regionally and globally.

The Western Pacific contains multiple 'explosive flash-points' which have the incendiary potential of igniting an US-China armed conflict. Such a conflict would have wider ramifications.

In the above scenario where armed conflict breaks out at ASEAN's doorsteps can ASEAN Nations afford to stand as mute witnesses paralysed into inaction because of past dithering on the China Threat.

Concluding, it can be analytically asserted that ASEAN's geopolitical and strategic choices in 2021 are not all that  complex and vexing. In terms of contextual geopolitical dynamics, ASEAN cannot afford to be on the wrong side of history. 

China is certainly not on the right side of history in terms of Indo Pacific security and stability. 

CHINA'S DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN TO PRESSURISE INDIA TO QUIT "QUAD"

China being rattled by India's membership of the QUAD-Quadrilateral Security Initiative  basically stems from the strategic reality that China perceives that India adds substantive geopolitical and strategic ballast to QUAD as a deterrent force altering the balance of power against China in 2021. 

China consequently seems to have stepped up a disinformation campaign within India by exploiting some sections of Indian polity, media and columnists to sell the Chinese narrative that India would be vwell advised to quit the QUAD as it is not a sustainable concept and that India could end up as a gopolitical loser in the end game.

The Chinese narrative advanced by such Indian media analyses argues primarily that (1)China is an ascendant power on a trajectory that would lead it to Superpower status (2)The United States is a "Declining Power" whose global predominance is shrinking (3)  Amongst the QUAD nations, India is the only nation that shares land-borders with China and thus positioned to exert military coercive pressures on India (4) The Indian Navy is weak and incaable of taking the Chinese Navy head-on.

In a nutshell China is attempting to sow doubts within India that India by opting for an active role in the QUAD is on the 'losing side'.

Analytically., the above narrative appears to be a 'Disinformation Campaign' by China within India to  influence Indian public opinion not only against the QUAD of which India is now an active participant but also against the US-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership --the "Oyster"  from which QUAD has emerged.

Why I term this as a Chinese 'Disinformation Campaign' can be proved by a few short sentences which blows the entire rationale outlined above to bits and pieces. 

Firstly, China may be an ascendant power but that is only by the size of its military arsenal. In 2021, China stands geopolitically diminished by China's acts of omission and commission. They stand well publicised from South China Sea to India's Himalayan Ladakh.

Secondly, the United States is not a 'Declining Power' as China would like the world to believe. China's geopolitical, military and economic asymmetries with the United States still do not equip China to liquidate United States global predominance. and its influence toshape global events. 

Thirdly, China unlike past decades, is in 2021, not in a position to militarily coerce India as India's pushback against China in Eastern Ladakh in June 2020 would lucidly illustrate.

Fourthly, the Indian Navy is a potent Navy which can effectively interdict China's Sea Lanes of Communication in theIndian Ocean on which China relies for its energy supplies and trade. Indian Navy has even made its presence felt at China's doorstep in South China Sea.

Besides the bove strategic realiites, what cannot be overlooked is that China has no comparative security grouping to offer as counterweight against the QUAD nor can one envisage one on the horizon.

Concluding, China would be well advised to recognise that within India when it comes to choosing India's 'Strategic Partners' , if the choice is between China and the United States, then Indian public opinion would predominantly rely on the United States as India's preferred 'Strategic Partner".

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