ASEAN NATIONS CONTEXTUALLY AT GEOPOLITICAL CROSSROADS ON INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN 2021

ASEAN Nations seem stranded in 2021 at vexing geopolitical crossroads wherein China stands in gross military violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity of nearly half of ASEAN nations, China has been diplomatically successful so far in dividing ASEAN unity, and the ASEAN Nations consequently still  dithering timidly on pro-actively siding with external Major Powers capable of restraining China.

Geopolitical dynamics in a fast churning Indo Pacific security environment offers no luxury of 'dithering' against national or regional security threats. ASEAN as the regional grouping of South East Asia nations has so far not given any indication of a 'pushback' against the China Threat, other than by Vietnam and the Philippines.

Geopolitically, in Indo Pacific Asia of which ASEAN Nations comprise the most crucial strategic segment, and wherein the Chna Threat is most pronounced, Major Powers are coalescing together to form counterweights to restrain China's expansionism.

ASEAN Nations neither individually nor collectively in 2021 seem to have military capabilities to stop China in its tracks of military expansionism. China shows scant regard for UN Conventions or rulings against China on its South China Sea claims as given by The Hague International Tribunal on Philippines case against China.

ASEAN's disunity on vociferous condemnation of South China Sea aggresions by China against Vietnam and the Philippines only emboldened China. But lately when China subjected ASEAN fence-sitters like Indonesia and Malaysia to a continuum of China's widening expansionist designs in South China Sea, some belated moves towards ASEAN's unified approaches against China seem to be in the offing.

Any belated ASEAN unified approaches against China unaccopanied by solid backing by Major Powers external to ASEAN grouping, will not count much with China in 2021, contextually.

Imperatives exist for ASEAN in 2021 to undertake a realistic reading and appraisal of contextual geopolitical dynamics both at the global level and ore specifically in the Inddo PacificRegion.

China in 2021 is in a 'Collision Trajectory' with the United States which is the predominant Global Power and to which Indo Pacific security and stability counts most. From accumulated indicators it seems that China can be expected to be reckless in challenging United States both regionally and globally.

The Western Pacific contains multiple 'explosive flash-points' which have the incendiary potential of igniting an US-China armed conflict. Such a conflict would have wider ramifications.

In the above scenario where armed conflict breaks out at ASEAN's doorsteps can ASEAN Nations afford to stand as mute witnesses paralysed into inaction because of past dithering on the China Threat.

Concluding, it can be analytically asserted that ASEAN's geopolitical and strategic choices in 2021 are not all that  complex and vexing. In terms of contextual geopolitical dynamics, ASEAN cannot afford to be on the wrong side of history. 

China is certainly not on the right side of history in terms of Indo Pacific security and stability. 

CHINA'S DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN TO PRESSURISE INDIA TO QUIT "QUAD"

China being rattled by India's membership of the QUAD-Quadrilateral Security Initiative  basically stems from the strategic reality that China perceives that India adds substantive geopolitical and strategic ballast to QUAD as a deterrent force altering the balance of power against China in 2021. 

China consequently seems to have stepped up a disinformation campaign within India by exploiting some sections of Indian polity, media and columnists to sell the Chinese narrative that India would be vwell advised to quit the QUAD as it is not a sustainable concept and that India could end up as a gopolitical loser in the end game.

The Chinese narrative advanced by such Indian media analyses argues primarily that (1)China is an ascendant power on a trajectory that would lead it to Superpower status (2)The United States is a "Declining Power" whose global predominance is shrinking (3)  Amongst the QUAD nations, India is the only nation that shares land-borders with China and thus positioned to exert military coercive pressures on India (4) The Indian Navy is weak and incaable of taking the Chinese Navy head-on.

In a nutshell China is attempting to sow doubts within India that India by opting for an active role in the QUAD is on the 'losing side'.

Analytically., the above narrative appears to be a 'Disinformation Campaign' by China within India to  influence Indian public opinion not only against the QUAD of which India is now an active participant but also against the US-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership --the "Oyster"  from which QUAD has emerged.

Why I term this as a Chinese 'Disinformation Campaign' can be proved by a few short sentences which blows the entire rationale outlined above to bits and pieces. 

Firstly, China may be an ascendant power but that is only by the size of its military arsenal. In 2021, China stands geopolitically diminished by China's acts of omission and commission. They stand well publicised from South China Sea to India's Himalayan Ladakh.

Secondly, the United States is not a 'Declining Power' as China would like the world to believe. China's geopolitical, military and economic asymmetries with the United States still do not equip China to liquidate United States global predominance. and its influence toshape global events. 

Thirdly, China unlike past decades, is in 2021, not in a position to militarily coerce India as India's pushback against China in Eastern Ladakh in June 2020 would lucidly illustrate.

Fourthly, the Indian Navy is a potent Navy which can effectively interdict China's Sea Lanes of Communication in theIndian Ocean on which China relies for its energy supplies and trade. Indian Navy has even made its presence felt at China's doorstep in South China Sea.

Besides the bove strategic realiites, what cannot be overlooked is that China has no comparative security grouping to offer as counterweight against the QUAD nor can one envisage one on the horizon.

Concluding, China would be well advised to recognise that within India when it comes to choosing India's 'Strategic Partners' , if the choice is between China and the United States, then Indian public opinion would predominantly rely on the United States as India's preferred 'Strategic Partner".

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"QUAD"S SALIENCE FROM SECURITY GROUPING TO GEOPOLITICAL CONSTRUCT ALARMS CHINA CONSIDERABLY

China noticeably in recent weeks stands alarmed considerably after the Virtual QUAD Summit of top political  leaders added enlarged  geopolitical contours spanning wider domains to its earlier intended construct as a mere security grouping.

In doing so the QUAD's apex political leaders of the United States, India, Japan and Australia have robbed China of its strident criticism that the QUAD was a military grouping aimed at China and dividing the Indo Pacific into ColdWar divides.

The QUAD's main intended purpose of integrating the Navies of the QUAD Nations through institutionalised mechanisms to provide existential deterrence to China's aims of dominating the Western Pacificand similar long term of the Indian Ocean remains unchanged.

The new construct being given to the QUAD envisages widening and extending QUAD Naations cooperation to Cybersecurity, Terrorism and  Diasaster Relief.

More noticeably, QUAD Nations are venturing into the economic field cooperation by Supply Chain Resilience Initiative whose main aim is to replace China-centric supply chains dependence  by alternative supply chains.

The above would greatly dilute China's economic power to strategically exploit economically weaker nations and so also China's economic strengths. 

While geopolitical constructs will impart to the QUAD contours other than a mere military grouping  but essentially the core aim remains China-containment, even though not stated so bluntly.

Significantly, the QUAD's widening its scope to one of an overall geopolitical construct would make it easier for a country like India to a more active and salient participation as a pivotal pillar of the QUAD.

Addedly this enalargement of cooperation aims could make it easier for other Indo PacificNations to join the QUAD who otherwise did not seem to be seen on he opposing side of a China-contaiment divide.

Concluding, it  needs to be highlighted that instead of allaying China's fears the trnasformation of the QUAD has raised more pronounced alarms in China going by latest pronouncements of Chinese Premier, Foreign Minister and official spokespersons. 

 

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INDO PACIFIC NATIONS INTENSELY POLARISED AGAINST CHINA

China in 2021 finds itself in the unenviable position of facing at her dorsteps an intensely polarised Indo Pacific security environment ranged against China. China has itself to blame for generating this polarisation with its own acts of wanton disreagrd of its neigbours sovereignties and China's imperialistic impulses of a 'Revisionist Power'. 

China as I always have maintained in my writins for last two decades has no 'Natural Allies' to boast of, with exception of North Korea and Pakistan, whose authoritarian regimes have been beholden to China for assisting them in creation of their Nuclear Weapons arsenal and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles arrsenal.

China in 2021 is visibly in open confrontation with the United States as the reigning Superpower with legitimate vital security interests in th Western Pacific which provide the Outer Perimeter of defence and security of Homeland United States.

Chinna has tried over the last decade to perpetuate a myth in Indo Pacific that the United States is a "Declining Power' and incapable of being a Nett Provider of security of Indo Pacific.

China succeeded in this direction for some time as the United States stood strategically distracted by its military interventions in Iraq earlier and Afghanistan thereafter.

With the advent of  Chinese President Xi Jinping in power in 2013, China emerged markedly as a Major Power intent on two aims of attaining 'Strategic Equivalence' with United States and emerge as the Second Pole in the global security calculus and in the proces also ensure that the United States exits the Western Pacific.

The Uited States belatedly woke up to the above strategic realities and US President Trump set the American ball rolling in terms of US-China Tad Wars and revamping the US Forward Military Presnce in Indo Pacific.

President Biden too has also opted to pursue United States 'Hard Line' policies against China belying Chinese expectations to the contray

Tangentially, India which has had a conflictual history with China and was not openly inclined to be seen in any containment mode of China has since 2017 veered arond to join the QUAD grouping of United States, Japan,and Australia.

Similarly ASEAN which had amjor fence-sitters  watching the evolving US-China Great Game in Indo Pacific and dithered when China illegally occupied Vietnam's and Philippines' Islands are awakening up to the harsh reality that China afterall is not a benign stakeholder in regional security.

More notably, China's military expansionism and scant regard for international norms and conventions while scrambling to emerge as a Sperpower has raised strategic hackles as far as NATO and the Euopean Union.

NATO and European Union's Major Powers have not only expressed security concerns on China's miliary  brinkmanship in Indo Pacific but have asserted that their Navies will  make a presence in the South China Sea along with QUAD Navies,

Significantly therefore, in mid-2021 the security environment of the Indo Pacific stands marked by an intense polarisation of Indo Pacific nations ranged against China in which NATO and European Union nations are also joining-in.

China does not seem to be far perurbed by this polarisation at the moment but this polarisation carries serious implications for China in terms of a major armed conflict i Indo Pacific, in which China cannot hope to come out as a victor.

CHINA'S PROPENSITY FOR DISRUPTIVE STRATEGIES TARGETTING INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN FULL DISPLAY 2021

 China' s traditional propensity for inflicting its disruptive strategies targetting Indo Pacific security has been in full display in 2021, more noticeably in the last two months, when it became apparent to China that the United Sates under new President Joe Biden is in no mood to deviate from outgoing Trump Administration's 'Hard Line'policies on China.

China's bid to disrupt Indo Pacific security currently is in full operation.

Most noticeably, China has put into full operation its military provocative activities against Taiwan whose spitited defiance of China's threats to effect Taiwan's unification with Mainland China by military force is not bearing fruit. In 2021, Taiwan emerges as the most explosive conflictual flash-point between China and he UnitedStates.

 China has ratcheted tensions with its military coercive military activities around Japan's Senkaku Islands, nuclear submarines prowling in seas around Japan and combat air patrols over Sea of Japan.

Philippines islands/reefs claimed by China  as its own have been surrounded by swarms of Chinese ships which China claims are fishing vessels.

Vietnam is also under similar coercion  pressure of Chinese military activities around Vietnamese islands claimed by China.

China after its unilateral willingness to disengage from military confrontation with India in Eastern Ladakh has now after initial reasonableness has dug in its heels for more substantial disengagement to keep threshold of armed conflict low.China is stalling military & diplomatic ongoing dialogues.

What is China aiming at? Does China feel that it can militarily get the better of the United States in any potential conflict or get the better of the evolving QUAD grouping? Does China feel that it can drive wedges between the United States and Japan and India?

China's main aim is not to get into full blown military conflict with the United States and its Allies nor does China want to get into full blown military conflicts with Japan or India. China is aware that such full blown military conflicts will disrupt Chinese economic  growth and further has prospects of a wider military conflagration to China's military disadvantage.

China's major aim of inflicting disruptive strategies on Indo Pacific security is to 'Win the Battle of Perceptions'  where China while keeping the military conflictual 'presure cooker' simmering gets away by geopolitically and strategically denting United States image in Indo Pacific capitals as still engaged in 'Risk Aversion' policies and incapable of effective retaliation against China's disruptive strategies.

China thus believes that it can perpetuate the perception that the United States is a "Power on he Decline."