INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : UNITED STATES PECEPTIONALLY A "FADING SUPERPOWER" ON GEOPOLITICAL AND STRATEGIC INDICATORS IN 2025

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

UNITED STATES PECEPTIONALLY A "FADING SUPERPOWER" ON GEOPOLITICAL AND STRATEGIC INDICATORS IN 2025

The United States is a "Fading Superpower" as per geopolitical and strategic indicators surfacing in 2025. Nothing validates this earlier assertion by me than the recently leaked Draft of the "US National Security Strategy 2025" prepared by the newly designated United States "Department of War' of the earlier US Defense Department.

The 'US National Security Strategy 2025' Document (NSS 2025) which will provide the 'Strategic Blueprint' which will be issued under the signature of President Donald Trump, on analysis, has "flipped on its head" United States geopolitical policies and strategic formulations that formed the fundamentals of sustaining United States unique pole position as a 'Superpower'.

The "Fading Superpower" assertion made by me is strongly validated by the implicit "Retrenchment of United States Global Predominance" when major REVERSALS of erstwhile US geopolitical stances of NSS 25 are analyzed.

Major REVERSALS of US geopolitical stances and strategic postures can be briefly highlighted as follows: (1) China and Russia Threats to US Security cited as 'Prime Threats' in pre-Trump 2.0 eras now stand 'downgraded as "Secondary Concerns" (2) Homeland Security and Western Hemisphere security are now 'Top Priorities' superseding the China Threat and Russia Threat (3) European Security burden to be shouldered by European Nations (4) Indo Pacific Security burden is being shifted to Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Major geopolitical deductions that implicitly strike my mind and which again validate my assertion that United States is a "Fading Superpower" are discussed below.

Heading the list is the stark reality that United States' 'Deterrent Power' and capabilities against China and Russia have failed. Reversing the China Threat and Russia Threat from Prime Threats to 'Secondary Concerns' is a tacit admission of erosion of US Superpower status.

Prioritizing narrow Homeland Security and Western Hemisphere Security over United States Global Threats from the Russia-China Axis betrays US fears that greater dangers lurk in terms of US Internal Security and Chinese penetration in Major Latin American Nations.

Passing-on the burden of European Security and Indo Pacific Security to regional nations earlier deemed as critical strategic sub-systems in US Global Strategic Calculus starkly represents that 'US Global Predominance is under Retrenchment'.

Overriding and overarching this sudden 'Retreat of American Empire" which emerged in post-Worl War II era is the reality check that the United Sates with President Trump having assumed power feels unable to shoulder the economic load of maintaining US Global Predominance a 'Perquisite' of the status of a Superpower.

The resort to punitive tariffs against Allies and Strategic Partners appears as a strategy to ride-over US economic problems of overstretched military power.

'Making America Great Again' (MAGA) which is President Trump's favorite emphasis currently seems more as a political subterfuge as the United States seeks to solve its geopolitical dilemmas.

My essay titled "United States Stares at Erosion of its Superpower Status in 2025 Due to President Trump 2.o Policies" of Aug 24, 2025, which was published before NSS 25 draft stood leaked, quoting extensively from Paul Kennedy's 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers' was an early pointer to this effect.

Once again, it would be pertinent to quote my major observation made in the above essay which read "American Historians would record 2025 as the inflexion point when the fall of America's Imperial Sway over global predominance power-play stood hastened by President Trump's policies alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners for short term transactional gains".

Can this process be reversed? Unlikely in President Trump's tenure. Can subsequent follow-up US President's retrieve the loss of US global predominance? Difficult as it takes decades to build up 'Credibility' as a Superpower,

Concluding, the dismal thought that strikes one's mind is that international geopolitics is headed towards a greater churn than presently being witnessed. Would it take World War III to throw up a NEW SUPERPOWER?

P.S Further analysis of military implications for India and Indo Pacific security in which India is intensely involved will follow in my next Article.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister