CHINA-INDIA RESET OF RELATIONS SEPTEMBER 2025: SHORT-TERM GEOPOLITICAL COMPELLANCE OR LONG-TERM STRATEGIC VISION?

Strategic convergence between China and India has perceptionally emerged in September 2025 emanating from US President Trump's 'Trade Wars' with China and President Trump's personalized 'Tariffs Terrorism' against India Post-Op SINDOOR decisive military victory over Pakistan in June 2025. 

China figures high in United States' Threat Perceptions for decades as a potent threat to US national interest and influence. But India for the last 25 years has figured in American policies as a 'Valued Pivotal Stategic Partner', until advent of Trump 2.0 Administration in 2025.

This only proves the old-age adage of international relations that in geopolitics 'There are no Permanent Friends or Foes, only National Interest. It did not take long for a personally piqued US President to jettison the US-India Strategic Partnership.

Geopolitical compellance, as first reaction, seems to have been the major factor with China taking the lead earlier this year to "Reset" China-India relations, with India too, responding positively to China's offer.

The critical question that policy makers and strategic analysts worldwide are tackling in September 2025, as Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi confabulate at SCO Tianjin Summit in China, is whether this is 'Short-term Geopolitical Compellance' or 'Long-Term Strategic Vision'?

Foreign policies of Nations do not operate in a geopolitical vacuum but greatly impelled and influenced by contemporary and unfolding geopolitical forces.

Accordingly, it is 'Short-term Geopolitical Compellance' arising from prevailing US hostility against China and India that obviously and logically have nudged China's and India's moves to objectively 'Reset' their relations at Tianjin.

However, it is pertinent to state that China's and India's moves to rest heir relations took birth at SCO Summit in Kazan, Russia in July 2024, and therefore predates the Trump Factor.

So that gives an indication that the 'Trump Factor' in 'China-India Reset' may have only been a catalyst to the process that President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi initiated at SCO Summit Kazan in July 2024.  

Analytically, therefore, one can concede that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi, mindful of geopolitical forces at play and unfolding, recognized that 'Long Term Strategic Vision' dictated that China and India needed 'Redefine China-Indian Relations'.

Easier said than done, but then as history proves that major geopolitical turnarounds sprout from geopolitical compellance.

'China-India Reset' as a 'Long-Term Strategic Vision' places a heavier load on China's shoulders to restore the 'Strategic Trust' in India marred by China's sordid and acrimonious past of decades since 1962.

India in September 2025, has emerged as a 'Powerful Swing State' whose geopolitical preferences can alter the global balance-of-power. China is aware of this strategic reality and should therefore make concerted efforts to wean away India from the US strategic orbit to the Russia-India-China Orbit.

Concluding, to achieve all of the above, China needs to replace its existing policy mindsets which have impeded good-unneighborly relations with India,namely, (1) Multipolarity is applicable not only at global level but also at the Asia-level (2) India cannot be 'contained' by China by the likes of Pakistan and Bangladesh (2) Boundary dispute cannot continue as an 'Eternal Chinese Damocles Sword' over India (3) China and India in 2025 are 'Near Equals'  in virtually all domains. There is no bandwidth for 'Chinese Exceptionalism' in China-India relations. 

China with its marked adversarial postures that pushed India into a substantive Strategic Partnership with United States. China can now, singularly, cause a realignment of India by jettisoning the above mindsets. 

 

UNITED SATES STARES AT THE EROSION OF ITS SUPERPOWER STATUS IN 2025 DUE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP 2.0 POLICIES

The United States under President Trump 2.0 stares in 2025 at the erosion of its Superpower Status for the first time after the end of World War II which marked its rise to that status.

 American historians would mark 2025 as the inflexion point when the fall of America's imperial sway over global power-play stood hastened by President Trump's policies alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners for short term transactional economic gains.

The decline and fall of the imperial "American Empire" inevitably falls into the mould traced by the famous historian Paul Kennedy in his eminent voluminous Bok: "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers".

United States in 2025 exhibits all symptoms of 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers'. It would be best to quote verbatim the major observations by Paul Kennedy on the back-cover of his Book which overs a survey from 1500-2000, to highlight in 2025 the reasons which could lead to diminution of United States status as a Superpower. Quotes and my comments thereon.

PAUL KENNEDY'S OBSERVATIONS 

"Although the United States is at present still in a class of its own economically and perhaps even militarily, it cannot avoid confronting the two great tests which challenge the longevity of every major power that occupies the 'number one' position in world affairs: whether, in the military/strategical realm, it can preserve a reasonable balance between the nation's perceived defense requirements and the means it possesses to maintain these commitments; and whether, as an intimately related point, it can preserve the technological and economic bases of its power from relative erosion in the face of the ever-shifting patterns of global production."

COMMENTS

The United States in 2025 global predominance geopolitically, strategically and economically is under siege by the contending rise of Russia and China. Emerging Powers like India with fastest global economic growth rates and a sizeable military machine backed by advanced technologies occupy 'Swing State' status.

Global opposition to United States predominance manifests itself in the emergence of the Russia-China Axis, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the possible revival of the Russia-India- China Trilateral.

PAUL KENNEDY'S OBSERVATIONS

"The test of American abilities will be greater because it, like imperial Spin around 1600 or the British Empire around 1900, is the inheritor of a vast array of strategical commitments which had been made decades earlier, when the nation's political, economic, and military capacity to influence world affairs seemed so much assured."

COMMENTS

In 2025, the United States political, economic and military capacity to influence global power-dynamics stands greatly reduced as compared to its Cold War overall predominance.

The United States today stands challenged not only by the Russia-China Axis, but also by Lesser Power like North Korea and Iran.

In 2025, perceptionally, the United States stands reduced to a 'Fading Superpower' whose President is forced to resort to 'Tariff Wars' bullying of global economies to offset glaring US Trade Deficits.

Perceptively again, the United States as a Superpower "shirks" from applying punitive Tariffs Strikes on Russia and China as applied on its Europea Allies, Pacific Allies, and pivotal Strategic Partners (so far) like India.

PAULKENNEDY'S CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

In consequence, the United States now runs the risk, so familiar to historians of the rise and fall of previous Great Powers, of what might roughly be called 'imperial stretch': that is to say, in Washington must face the awkward and enduring fact that the sum total of the United States' global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than the country's power to defend them all simultaneously".

COMMENTS

That the United States in 2025 is in the stage of "Imperial Overstretch" would b an understatement. The United States global and regional deployments of the Cold War era sill remain despite the shrinkage of its economic capacity to maintain them.

United States' hitherto for global strategic Managment rested on a system of vibrant and robust military alliances and a spiderweb of bilateral security treaties with its Pacific Allies. Japan and South Korea shouldered heavy costs of 'hosting US Forces.

President Trump, both in his earlier term, and in his preset incumbency, resorted to undue pressures on its NATO Alliance Nations and Pacific Allies for increased defense spending.

 The above obviously arising from United States incapacity and reluctance in 2025 to shoulder the financial burden of maintaining its global commitments of a Superpower.

Does this not reflect, in 2025, the "Erosion of its Superpower Status"? 

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONs

Twenty-five years have passed since Paul Kennedy gave the above valuable insights. Since then, the United States global predominance and its capacity to influence global power dynamics or impose its will on conflictual conflagrations stands greatly curtailed by rise of a multipolar world.

The United States managed to retain its unique Superpower predominance, though with some strain and hiccups, till the Biden Administration. United States diplomatic stances matched the formulations of its National Security Document.

Contentious issues amongst US Allies were sorted out discreetly by discreet diplomacy, outside the public glare, and thereby retaining the overall value and confidence in US global leadership.

In 2025, the blatant bluff and bluster scalding US Allies and Strategic Partners on Trade Tariffs by incumbent President Trump vocally in full public glare is wearing thin not only the trust in US global leadership but also misperceptions that the United States is being reduced toa 'TransactioalPower' minus long term vision.

'Making America Great Again' (MAGA), avowed aim of President Trump, cannot be achieved by alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners who have long contributed to United States retaining its Superpower status.

In the global geopolitical churn, the United States can Ill afford to lose its Allies and Strategic Partners. Options othr than the United States are open to them.

UNITED STATES PRESIDENT TRUMP PLAYING THE "PAKISTAN CARD" AGAINST INDIA IN 2025 FOREDOOMED TO FAILURE

US President Donald Trump perceptible playing the "Pakistan Card" against India in mid-2025 in complete reversal of Trump 1:0 policies (2016-20) are foredoomed to failure simply .because India today carries more geopolitical weightage globally and is not a strategic pushover like Pakistan.

Overlooked by President Trump and his policy establishment is that in the prevailing global geopolitical churning, it is the United States that critically needs India as a Strategic Partner and not India needing the United States.

India today with its geopolitical and economic weight can tilt the scales of the global Balance of Power by its strategic preferences

President Trump's reckless moves, therefore, to browbeat India to yield to US-demanded trade concessions risks the US-India Strategic Partnership laboriously crafted over last 25 years.

 President Trump's transactional approaches could spell the end of QUAD Security Initiative as besides India as the pivotal member, the other two nations, Japan and Australia are equally aggrieved by President Trump's impulsive actions.''

Regrettably, in his penchant for seeking publicity headlines, perceptionally, President Trump has overridden the saner vices in Washington not to antagonize India.

Perceptibly, there is an element of personal pique against Indian PM Modi for not conceding to President Trump's self-asserted claims that it was he who pressurized India and Pakistan during mid-2025 for a ceasefire after India's decisive cripplng of Pakistan's offensive capabilities. 

President Trump's ego and his Nobel Peace Prize aspirations stood bruised and hence his ordering 50% tariffs on Indian exports to USA with the fig leaf that it was intended to restrict India's purchase of Russian oil.

Duplicitous approach of President Trump is starkly evident as China buys more Russian oil than India does. But President Trump overlooking this fact has not penalized China but has extended the tariffs deadline imposition by another 90 days.

Coming to Pakistan, President Trump has noticeably displayed a "Pakistan-tilt" in his statements and deeds. This trend stands intensified after India refusing to concede that there was ' NO Third Party Mediation' for ceasefire and that it was Pakistan Army DGMO who initiated ceasefire request to Indian Army DGMO on the hotline. 

Rubbing into India's strategic sensitivities, President Trump  hosted a lunch for Pakistan Army Chie Asif Munir which was a departure from established protocol as this honor is reserved for Heads of State.

Rubbing India further, United  under President  Trump hosted a second visit by Pakistan Army Chief and a flurry of visits by Pakistan's military hierarchy. Increased military aid to Pakistan is in evidence.

The last time a US President displayed similar "Pakistan Tilt" policies arising out of personal pique was a fellow Republican President Nixon goaded by his NSA Heny Kissinger in 1971. What was the result? Nixon's outright military threats to India and ordering US aircraft carrier group led by USS ENTERPRISE could not subdue India.

Nixon's antagonistic policies against India and follow-up sanctions were disastrous for the United States national interests. Pakistan stood partitioned, Bangladesh emerged as an independent nation and United States lost out strategically on India till the turn of the Milennium.

Concluding, President Trump's "Tariff  Terrorism" against India and his pronounced 'Pakistan Tilt" are foredoomed to failure. India in the past when it was not a geopolitical heavyweight weathered many American economic sanctions and American "Pakistan Tilts".

In 2025, when India has emerged as a geopolitical and economic heavyweight in the global power-calculus, India cannot be expected to yield to US President Trump's piqued tantrums. India today demands respect on the strength of its power-credentials and will not take President Trump's bullying. 

If the United States does not carry out immediate course-corrections, it stands to lose India as a pivotal Strategic Partner, mark the end of US-India Stategic Partnership, and lead to unravelling of the QUAD, and also the emergence of BRICS solidly and potently working for "De-Dollarization".