Monday, November 28, 2022

UNITED STATES- JAPAN-SOUTH KOREA SECURITY TRILATERAL CRYSTALLISING IN 2022

Geopolitical realities unfolding in Indo Pacific in wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China Threat of Taiwan invasion, Russia-China Axis solidifying and North Korea as China's nuclear proxy destabilizing the Korean Peninsula with repeated missiles tests has forcefully dawned on South Korea the imperatives of regional security resting on a US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral.

US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral was a Strategic Imperative even in Cold War I when Russia Threat was at its peak. In Cold War II, China Threat to Indo Pacific has emerged in more menacing contours surpassing the erstwhile Russia Threat. 

Geopolitical and strategic imperatives are therefore more pressing in 2022 closing weeks for speedy integration and operationalization of the US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral.

Initial moves in this direction were visible from November 2022 onwards with Defense Ministers and senior military officials from the three countries holding consultations.

It needs to be recalled that the United States has Bilateral Secuity Treaties with Japan and South Korea. The missing piece in this security geometry in Western Pacifici was an integrated US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral.

For decades, the resistance to this pressing triangular security mechanism stemmed from South Korea opposing it for no other good reason than perceived historical wrongs of South Korea over Japanese colonial rule over South Korea in the last century.

South Korea's reluctance in the past also arose from China being able to drive a wedge in Japan-South Korean relations t suit its strategic ends. In this direction China's economic inducements to South Krea were manipulated by China.

Fortunately, the situation has changed with the Conservative President Yoon taking over the reins of power in Seoul this year. President Yoon realized that South Korean policies of past Presidents of 'Reconciliation' with North Korea had failed miserably when contextually viewed against North Korea's blatant military provocations in the last one year.

Analytically, lurking in South Korea's new policy calculations of positive approach towards a US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral would be the stark realization that China despite professions of friendship towards Soth Korea had not actively restrained North Korea - its satellite, from aggressive provocations against South Korea, leaving Japan aside.

Perceptionaly, it appears that China wanted North Korea to intensify its aggressive provocations of missile firings post-Ukraine War by Russia. It suited China in diversion of attention from its Taiwan military adventurism and also US sole strategic focus on assisting Ukraine against Russia 

South Korea too like United States and Japan has significant stakes in security and stability of Western Pacific and South China Sea which China has disrupted with its aggressive moves.

Concluding, in interests of overall Indo Pacific security considerations, Western Pacific security and more specifically stability and security of the Korean Peninsula, the crystallization of the US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral needs to be welcomed as a mature security imperative well recognized.

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