Tuesday, September 28, 2021

COMMUNIST CHINA'S AGGRESSIVE PROPENSITIES 2021 FACES PUSH-BACK BY UNITED STATES-LED SECURITY GROUPINGS QUAD AND AUKUS

The year 2021 will go down in history as the 'Tipping Point' when in response to Communist China's unrestrained aggressive propensities in the Indo Pacific, the 'Arc of Democracies' led by United States decisively  engaged themselves in a geopolitical  & strategic nuclear push-back against Beijing's predatory 'China Threat' menacing the Indo Pacific.

The geopolitical push-back against Beijing stands exemplified by two  Summit Meets of The QUAD leaders in 2021 and  the announcement of the formation of AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) Trilateral which has strategic nuclear overtones in the maritime domain. 

In 2021, reflecting the resolve of Indo Pacific Democracies push-back against Communist China, two Summit Meets of US President Joe Biden, Japanese PM Suga, Australian PM Scott Morrison and Indian PM Narendra Modi took place. The first meet was a 'Virtual Meet' in March 2021 and the second 'In Person' Summit Meet of The QUAD leaders took place in Washington in September last week.

The latter was preceded by the game changing announcement by United States of the formation of the AUKUS Trilateral which plans to equip Australia with six nuclear-power submarines over the next ten years by United States and UK , which already have nuclear submarines in their Navies. 

 Communist China's predatory aggressiveness in the Western Pacific and intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean rests mainly on the powerful Chinese PLA Navy which now has nuclear attack submarines, aircraft carriers and a large fleet of Destroyers and Frigates.

The AUKUS primarily will focus expectedly on imposing deterrence on China's use of unrestrained naval might in the Indo Pacific.

The global strategic community has since been engrossed in debating the sudden announcement of AUKUS existence and its relationship with the QUAD Security Dialogue.

Analytically, there should be no confusion on the intent and roles of QUAD Security Initiative and the AUKUS. The QUAD is a quadrilateral geopolitical security-oriented grouping comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India. QUAD is not a military alliance and therefore has potential of expansion. 

AUKUS for all realistic purposes is a Indo Pacific-centric military alliance comprising United States, UK and Australia concentrating in positioning a 'Trinity of Nuclear Submarines' in Indo Pacific to off-set China's naval predatory moves. Nuclear submarines with long distance endurance and silent operations will impose deterrence at China's littoral doorsteps and also challenge its intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean.

China has reacted violently to both these ominous developments of QUAD and AUKUS set in motion in the interests of safeguarding  Indo Pacific  security against the China Treat.

Concluding, one needs to stress that whatever diplomatic reasons are advanced by not specifically mentioning Communist China as the target of the QUAD and AUKUS, what is starkly evident is that both QUAD and AUKUS stand configured to confront the China Threat.

Should Communist China still persist in its 'Revisionist Impulses' in the Indo Pacific, as I have written elsewhere, these initial steps of 'Deterrence Imposition' on China's aggressiveness  by US-led Arc of Democracies could graduate into full-fledged 'China Containment Strategies'.


1 comment:

Swati Torsekar said...

Sir, Australia by own policy was never a nuclear state. Why would nuclear "powered" submarines now rattle China so much?

Presence of uk in aukus - is it a reminder of restoring HK back to previous status n hence this upsets China?

Secondly - European allies hv been abandoned because they are not ready to share strategic vision on china with biden. In 2001 Bush said you are either with us or...- european liberals harshly criticised him for this phrase and stance. Now today in restraining china the Biden admin "implements" the principle without saying so much in words - there is no criticism.

Thirdly - my hunch is Biden admin is only interested in tackling china on 2 limited objectives - one is to pressurise/ incentivise ccp to replace Xi Jin Ping with a moderate leader- second is to win back HK. They could be still ready to work with china if ccp agrees to these points. Does my hunch hv substance? If yes then how would it affect India?