CHINA-INDIA RESET OF RELATIONS SEPTEMBER 2025: SHORT-TERM GEOPOLITICAL COMPELLANCE OR LONG-TERM STRATEGIC VISION?

Strategic convergence between China and India has perceptionally emerged in September 2025 emanating from US President Trump's 'Trade Wars' with China and President Trump's personalized 'Tariffs Terrorism' against India Post-Op SINDOOR decisive military victory over Pakistan in June 2025. 

China figures high in United States' Threat Perceptions for decades as a potent threat to US national interest and influence. But India for the last 25 years has figured in American policies as a 'Valued Pivotal Stategic Partner', until advent of Trump 2.0 Administration in 2025.

This only proves the old-age adage of international relations that in geopolitics 'There are no Permanent Friends or Foes, only National Interest. It did not take long for a personally piqued US President to jettison the US-India Strategic Partnership.

Geopolitical compellance, as first reaction, seems to have been the major factor with China taking the lead earlier this year to "Reset" China-India relations, with India too, responding positively to China's offer.

The critical question that policy makers and strategic analysts worldwide are tackling in September 2025, as Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi confabulate at SCO Tianjin Summit in China, is whether this is 'Short-term Geopolitical Compellance' or 'Long-Term Strategic Vision'?

Foreign policies of Nations do not operate in a geopolitical vacuum but greatly impelled and influenced by contemporary and unfolding geopolitical forces.

Accordingly, it is 'Short-term Geopolitical Compellance' arising from prevailing US hostility against China and India that obviously and logically have nudged China's and India's moves to objectively 'Reset' their relations at Tianjin.

However, it is pertinent to state that China's and India's moves to rest heir relations took birth at SCO Summit in Kazan, Russia in July 2024, and therefore predates the Trump Factor.

So that gives an indication that the 'Trump Factor' in 'China-India Reset' may have only been a catalyst to the process that President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi initiated at SCO Summit Kazan in July 2024.  

Analytically, therefore, one can concede that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi, mindful of geopolitical forces at play and unfolding, recognized that 'Long Term Strategic Vision' dictated that China and India needed 'Redefine China-Indian Relations'.

Easier said than done, but then as history proves that major geopolitical turnarounds sprout from geopolitical compellance.

'China-India Reset' as a 'Long-Term Strategic Vision' places a heavier load on China's shoulders to restore the 'Strategic Trust' in India marred by China's sordid and acrimonious past of decades since 1962.

India in September 2025, has emerged as a 'Powerful Swing State' whose geopolitical preferences can alter the global balance-of-power. China is aware of this strategic reality and should therefore make concerted efforts to wean away India from the US strategic orbit to the Russia-India-China Orbit.

Concluding, to achieve all of the above, China needs to replace its existing policy mindsets which have impeded good-unneighborly relations with India,namely, (1) Multipolarity is applicable not only at global level but also at the Asia-level (2) India cannot be 'contained' by China by the likes of Pakistan and Bangladesh (2) Boundary dispute cannot continue as an 'Eternal Chinese Damocles Sword' over India (3) China and India in 2025 are 'Near Equals'  in virtually all domains. There is no bandwidth for 'Chinese Exceptionalism' in China-India relations. 

China with its marked adversarial postures that pushed India into a substantive Strategic Partnership with United States. China can now, singularly, cause a realignment of India by jettisoning the above mindsets. 

 

UNITED SATES STARES AT THE EROSION OF ITS SUPERPOWER STATUS IN 2025 DUE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP 2.0 POLICIES

The United States under President Trump 2.0 stares in 2025 at the erosion of its Superpower Status for the first time after the end of World War II which marked its rise to that status.

 American historians would mark 2025 as the inflexion point when the fall of America's imperial sway over global power-play stood hastened by President Trump's policies alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners for short term transactional economic gains.

The decline and fall of the imperial "American Empire" inevitably falls into the mould traced by the famous historian Paul Kennedy in his eminent voluminous Bok: "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers".

United States in 2025 exhibits all symptoms of 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers'. It would be best to quote verbatim the major observations by Paul Kennedy on the back-cover of his Book which overs a survey from 1500-2000, to highlight in 2025 the reasons which could lead to diminution of United States status as a Superpower. Quotes and my comments thereon.

PAUL KENNEDY'S OBSERVATIONS 

"Although the United States is at present still in a class of its own economically and perhaps even militarily, it cannot avoid confronting the two great tests which challenge the longevity of every major power that occupies the 'number one' position in world affairs: whether, in the military/strategical realm, it can preserve a reasonable balance between the nation's perceived defense requirements and the means it possesses to maintain these commitments; and whether, as an intimately related point, it can preserve the technological and economic bases of its power from relative erosion in the face of the ever-shifting patterns of global production."

COMMENTS

The United States in 2025 global predominance geopolitically, strategically and economically is under siege by the contending rise of Russia and China. Emerging Powers like India with fastest global economic growth rates and a sizeable military machine backed by advanced technologies occupy 'Swing State' status.

Global opposition to United States predominance manifests itself in the emergence of the Russia-China Axis, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the possible revival of the Russia-India- China Trilateral.

PAUL KENNEDY'S OBSERVATIONS

"The test of American abilities will be greater because it, like imperial Spin around 1600 or the British Empire around 1900, is the inheritor of a vast array of strategical commitments which had been made decades earlier, when the nation's political, economic, and military capacity to influence world affairs seemed so much assured."

COMMENTS

In 2025, the United States political, economic and military capacity to influence global power-dynamics stands greatly reduced as compared to its Cold War overall predominance.

The United States today stands challenged not only by the Russia-China Axis, but also by Lesser Power like North Korea and Iran.

In 2025, perceptionally, the United States stands reduced to a 'Fading Superpower' whose President is forced to resort to 'Tariff Wars' bullying of global economies to offset glaring US Trade Deficits.

Perceptively again, the United States as a Superpower "shirks" from applying punitive Tariffs Strikes on Russia and China as applied on its Europea Allies, Pacific Allies, and pivotal Strategic Partners (so far) like India.

PAULKENNEDY'S CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

In consequence, the United States now runs the risk, so familiar to historians of the rise and fall of previous Great Powers, of what might roughly be called 'imperial stretch': that is to say, in Washington must face the awkward and enduring fact that the sum total of the United States' global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than the country's power to defend them all simultaneously".

COMMENTS

That the United States in 2025 is in the stage of "Imperial Overstretch" would b an understatement. The United States global and regional deployments of the Cold War era sill remain despite the shrinkage of its economic capacity to maintain them.

United States' hitherto for global strategic Managment rested on a system of vibrant and robust military alliances and a spiderweb of bilateral security treaties with its Pacific Allies. Japan and South Korea shouldered heavy costs of 'hosting US Forces.

President Trump, both in his earlier term, and in his preset incumbency, resorted to undue pressures on its NATO Alliance Nations and Pacific Allies for increased defense spending.

 The above obviously arising from United States incapacity and reluctance in 2025 to shoulder the financial burden of maintaining its global commitments of a Superpower.

Does this not reflect, in 2025, the "Erosion of its Superpower Status"? 

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONs

Twenty-five years have passed since Paul Kennedy gave the above valuable insights. Since then, the United States global predominance and its capacity to influence global power dynamics or impose its will on conflictual conflagrations stands greatly curtailed by rise of a multipolar world.

The United States managed to retain its unique Superpower predominance, though with some strain and hiccups, till the Biden Administration. United States diplomatic stances matched the formulations of its National Security Document.

Contentious issues amongst US Allies were sorted out discreetly by discreet diplomacy, outside the public glare, and thereby retaining the overall value and confidence in US global leadership.

In 2025, the blatant bluff and bluster scalding US Allies and Strategic Partners on Trade Tariffs by incumbent President Trump vocally in full public glare is wearing thin not only the trust in US global leadership but also misperceptions that the United States is being reduced toa 'TransactioalPower' minus long term vision.

'Making America Great Again' (MAGA), avowed aim of President Trump, cannot be achieved by alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners who have long contributed to United States retaining its Superpower status.

In the global geopolitical churn, the United States can Ill afford to lose its Allies and Strategic Partners. Options othr than the United States are open to them.

UNITED STATES PRESIDENT TRUMP PLAYING THE "PAKISTAN CARD" AGAINST INDIA IN 2025 FOREDOOMED TO FAILURE

US President Donald Trump perceptible playing the "Pakistan Card" against India in mid-2025 in complete reversal of Trump 1:0 policies (2016-20) are foredoomed to failure simply .because India today carries more geopolitical weightage globally and is not a strategic pushover like Pakistan.

Overlooked by President Trump and his policy establishment is that in the prevailing global geopolitical churning, it is the United States that critically needs India as a Strategic Partner and not India needing the United States.

India today with its geopolitical and economic weight can tilt the scales of the global Balance of Power by its strategic preferences

President Trump's reckless moves, therefore, to browbeat India to yield to US-demanded trade concessions risks the US-India Strategic Partnership laboriously crafted over last 25 years.

 President Trump's transactional approaches could spell the end of QUAD Security Initiative as besides India as the pivotal member, the other two nations, Japan and Australia are equally aggrieved by President Trump's impulsive actions.''

Regrettably, in his penchant for seeking publicity headlines, perceptionally, President Trump has overridden the saner vices in Washington not to antagonize India.

Perceptibly, there is an element of personal pique against Indian PM Modi for not conceding to President Trump's self-asserted claims that it was he who pressurized India and Pakistan during mid-2025 for a ceasefire after India's decisive cripplng of Pakistan's offensive capabilities. 

President Trump's ego and his Nobel Peace Prize aspirations stood bruised and hence his ordering 50% tariffs on Indian exports to USA with the fig leaf that it was intended to restrict India's purchase of Russian oil.

Duplicitous approach of President Trump is starkly evident as China buys more Russian oil than India does. But President Trump overlooking this fact has not penalized China but has extended the tariffs deadline imposition by another 90 days.

Coming to Pakistan, President Trump has noticeably displayed a "Pakistan-tilt" in his statements and deeds. This trend stands intensified after India refusing to concede that there was ' NO Third Party Mediation' for ceasefire and that it was Pakistan Army DGMO who initiated ceasefire request to Indian Army DGMO on the hotline. 

Rubbing into India's strategic sensitivities, President Trump  hosted a lunch for Pakistan Army Chie Asif Munir which was a departure from established protocol as this honor is reserved for Heads of State.

Rubbing India further, United  under President  Trump hosted a second visit by Pakistan Army Chief and a flurry of visits by Pakistan's military hierarchy. Increased military aid to Pakistan is in evidence.

The last time a US President displayed similar "Pakistan Tilt" policies arising out of personal pique was a fellow Republican President Nixon goaded by his NSA Heny Kissinger in 1971. What was the result? Nixon's outright military threats to India and ordering US aircraft carrier group led by USS ENTERPRISE could not subdue India.

Nixon's antagonistic policies against India and follow-up sanctions were disastrous for the United States national interests. Pakistan stood partitioned, Bangladesh emerged as an independent nation and United States lost out strategically on India till the turn of the Milennium.

Concluding, President Trump's "Tariff  Terrorism" against India and his pronounced 'Pakistan Tilt" are foredoomed to failure. India in the past when it was not a geopolitical heavyweight weathered many American economic sanctions and American "Pakistan Tilts".

In 2025, when India has emerged as a geopolitical and economic heavyweight in the global power-calculus, India cannot be expected to yield to US President Trump's piqued tantrums. India today demands respect on the strength of its power-credentials and will not take President Trump's bullying. 

If the United States does not carry out immediate course-corrections, it stands to lose India as a pivotal Strategic Partner, mark the end of US-India Stategic Partnership, and lead to unravelling of the QUAD, and also the emergence of BRICS solidly and potently working for "De-Dollarization".

RUSSIA-INDIA-CHINA TRILATERAL REVIVAL AS ADVOCATED BY RUSSIA & CHINA GEOPOLITICALLY AND STRATEGICALLY INADVISABLE FOR INDIA 2025

Russia and China whenever geopolitically cornered globally have displayed the propensity to actively advocate for revival of the Russia-India-China Trilateral as an optical geopolitical leverage against United States and the West.

In recent weeks, this has surfaced once again, with now China voicing that India should agree to Russian advocacy of the revival of the Russia-India-China Trilateral. This advocacy was last most active in the latter half of the 2000s when India was signing the US-India Civil Nuclear Deal and the US-India Strategic Partnership was becoming substantive.

In 2025, India has emerged in her own right as a Major Power in the global strategic calculus. India has amply exhibited its national power attributes and heading India towards 'Real Strategic Autonomy'. Incapacitating Pakistan's offensive capabilities with 'Deep Strikes' in Pakistan's Heartland during OP SINDOOR despite Pakistan's nuclear blackmail and China's overt support evidently support this assertion.

So, the question that comes to the fore is as to how India geopolitically and strategically benefits if it opts for revival of the Russia-India-China-Trilateral?

In my assessment, no geopolitical or strategic gains accrue to India in 2025 or thereafter by once again participating actively in a "Revived" Russia-India-China Trilateral.

Russia is bogged down in 2025 in a strategic quagmire of its own creation in the Ukraine War. China in my assessment i2025 is "besieged" geopolitically and increasingly internally with serious domestic upheaval in the offing.

More significantly, Russia and China figure "high" in the 'Threat Perceptions' of the United States, UK, France, Germany, Japan and Australia with which India has forged Strategic Partnerships.

In fact, in 2025, the global scene today presents two Major Powers Groups confronting each other, directly or by proxy, namely, United States & its Allies versus the Russia-China Axis.  

India should therefore in 2025, or even thereafter not be ensnared into a geopolitical swamp from which it would be difficult to wriggle out without significant geopolitical losses if it once again becomes active in Russia-India-China Trilateral.

Even in the heyday when India found the Russia-India-China Trilateral geopolitically an attractive proposition in past Indian political dispensations, decades ago, my writings then argued too that it was not in India's national interests to be part of such a Trilateral.

The Russia-India-China Trilateral, geometrically too, was never, and even now, a sound proposition for India.

Taking the Trilateral as a Geometrical Tringle, Russia sits at the top of the Triangle with India and China forming the two ends of the base of the Triangle. With India and China figuring as 'implacable enemies', the base of this Triangle inherently crumbles under its own contradictory adversarial weight. 

In the last two decades, can India forget the Chinese and Russian (under Chinese pressures) anti-Indian geopolitical gimmicks in South Asia against India? 

A Russia-China-Pakistan compact was very much visible on Afghanistan where both Russia and China sidelined India from dialogues on Afghanistan in Moscow forgetting that India had sizeable geopolitical stakes there.

A petulant Russia then also went on to supply military hardware to Pakistan to strategically discomfit India. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's statements then were certainly not India-friendly. President Putin's Special Advisor Kabulov was decidedly anti-Indian.

China's Compulsive Obsessive Disorder of "Downsizing India" geopolitically, militarily and now adding 'Economic Warfare" stands well documented in my past and recent writings. 

China's persistent record of supporting Pakistan's State-sponsored terrorism against India both by vetoing UN Resolutions censuring Pakistan or Pakistan Army affiliated Jihadi Groups reinforces China's postures as an 'Inveterate & Implacable Enemy of India'.

Does India need or seem to be a part of any 'Coalition' with Russia and China with their demonstrated record not only perceived as 'Disruptive Powers' globally, but also with convergent Russia-Chia Axis strategic aims at cross-purposes with India's National Interests?

Concluding, it needs to be reiterated that surely PM Narendra Modi and the Indian foreign policy establishment would be seized with the above factors and would resist any pressures to actively participate in a 'revived' Russia-India -China Trilateral.

Political 'tactical expediency' in short-term to soft-pedal this issue for access to Russian cheap oil and India securing its supply chains against China's 'Economic Warfare' disruptions are well -understandable.

CHINA'S RELENTLESS STRATEGIC DOWNSIZING OF INDIA NOW ADDS AN "ECONOMIC WARFARE" DIMENSION TO ITS ANTI-INDIA ARMORY: IMPLICATIONS

China having failed in its strategies to strategically downsize India for decades by devious geopolitical means and military coercion on India's borders with China Occupied Tibet has now desperately embarked on "Economic Warfare" to impede India's 'Power Rise'.

In the years since 2014, with the advent of PM Modi-led BJP Government, India has acquired significant geopolitical weightage. Adding to this is India's stellar 'War Preparedness' achieved since 2014, adding muscle to India's diplomacy and providing PM Modi the strength and will to counter the China-Pakistan Axis.

China's fixated obsession to impede India's rise as a Major Power on the global stage now finds expression in launching an all- out "Economic Warfare encompassing a wide domain of India's economic and trade activities.

The 'Trigger' for China's spurt in 'Economic Warfare" strategies against India, both direct and indirect, arises from two major economic factors. These are (1) India's fast-track economic progress towards emerging as global 'Third Largest Economy", and (2) India's emerging profile as a Global Manufacturing Hub' displacing China. 

China's global standings, with pretentions of being a Superpower, are severely dented with India's 'Ascendant Trajectory' on the global stage, taking the power sheen off China.

China's "Economic Warfare" against India has sharpened lately and encompasses (1) Recall of Chinese engineers involved in US/foreign companies projects in India (2) Stringent export restrictions selectively applied to Indian deals (3) Targeting India's needs for special fertilizers for agriculture (4) Restrictions on Indian imports from China of Rare Earths and magnets used in India's automobiles sector and space programs.

The above is only a brief list, and more selective restrictions against India are in the pipeline. China has reacted feverishly against items/entities which are driving Foreign Investors ay from China and relocate to India after initial lure of Vietnam.

The implications for India would be a temporary slowdown in some fields but not a total disruption. India seems to have prepared for this eventuality. Indian industry is already looking for alternative suppliers and the Modi Government is fast-tracking to fill the voids with self-reliant technologies/ supplies.

India also needs to adopt matching retaliatory "Economic Warfare" strategies against China with effect. These should include (1) No Chinese FDI in India and certainly not in electronics sector (2) Blanket ban on all Indian imports from China Imports from China be made selectively for short term (3) No purchase of indigenous defence items which have Chinese components (4) Service Sector not to be open for China and Chinese. No Chinese flights to India (5) Government should prohibit Indian tourists visiting China (6) Plug loopholes of Chinese good entering India through third countries or smuggling along land-borders with Nepal and Bangladesh.

Lastly, in tandem, India's millions-strong Netizens Army should organize a persistent and vocal "BOYCOTT CHINESE GOODS" by all Indians as patriotic duty.