UNITED STATES MUST GUARD AGAINST STRATEGIC NAIIVETY IN SUCCUMBING TO CHINA'S OVERTURES TO RE-ESTABLISH MILITARY RELATIONS

Contextually, when the United States is not geopolitically or strategically beleaguered either by Russia's invasion of Ukraine or the Hamas-Israel War on Gaza, or, even by China's continued predatory moves in South China Sea, it would be the height of United States strategic naivety to succumb to China's overtures to re-establish military relations.

China is currently engaged in such overtures holding out the carrot of an Xi-Biden Meet on the sidelines of the forthcoming APEC Meet in San Francisco.

US President Biden unexpectedly opted for even a more strident 'Hard Line' policies on China than his predecessor President Trump and put China on notice that strong bi-partisan support exists within United States against China for constantly undermining US national security interests.

It was on the strength of strong bipartisan support within United States on Hard-Line policies on China that encouraged Indo Pacific nations to team-up with United States against a commonly perceived China Threat.

Then what is prompting the United States to lose the 'Perceptional War' against China by seemingly cozying-up to China when it is China that is more beleaguered geopolitically arising from its unconditional support of Russia over Ukraine?

In 2023, a larger part of the world except Islamic countries are lined up in support of the United States than behind Russia or China.

The United States would be utterly strategically naive if its policy establishment assesses that by restoring military relations with China, the United States may be able to wean China away from its Russian embrace.

The United States must recognize that in terms of United States long-term national security interests it is 'strategically wise' for United States to wean away Russia from China's strategic embrace than persisting in US flawed policy-aims of weaning away China from Russia.

The United States must seriously debate the perceptional strategic losses that would accrue to United States on QUAD and other nations in Indo Pacific of any perceptional shifts to "rehabilitate" China in its policy formulations at this stage.

Pointed out repeatedly in my writings on US-China relations for two decades was a singular warning that United States cannot adopt a 'two-level' China-policy, At the first level raising the scepter of a China Threat amongst Indo Pacific countries to join the US-led posse against China and concurrently at the second level cozying-up to China because of its misperceived and flawed Russia-policy.

For Indo Pacific nations, it is China that is a more live and potent threat than Russia. This applies more significantly to Japan and India.

The United States has to strategically choose between 'respecting the strategic sensitivities' of the main pillars of its Indo Pacific Security Edifice or succumbing in strategic naivety to Chinese overtures whose end-aim is to drive wedges between United States and Japan and India.

China is a 'sworn enemy 'of the United States as much as it is of Japan and India. The United States in 2023 or beyond has no strategic bandwidth to re-indulge in China Hedging policies of yester years. 

 America 'take your pick'!!

 

PHILIPPINES IN CHINA'S MILITARY CROSSHAIRS BECAUSE OF UNITED STATES AND INDIA

China lately has intensified its military coercion of the Philippines in and around islands/ reefs claimed by it in Philippines territorial waters in South China Sea after years of feigned friendship with the Philippines.

Departing from his predecessor President Duterte's pro-China policy, incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr Ferdinand on assuming presidency in June 2022 has tried to balance relations with China but with a noticeable tilt towards the United States.

President Marcos Jr in initial stages of his presidency made a visit to China hoping that China would keep the peace with the Philippines. However, he has made two trips to the United States in an effort to add substance to the existing US-Philippines Mutual Security Treaty which had over the years become rusty due to past Presidents.

President Marcos Jr seeking security guarantees from United States was impelled by China's deliberate actions to prevent re-supply of its garrisons on shoals in South China Sea by aggressive cations of Chinese Coast Guard ships.

China's latest provocation against the Philippines has been the release of its New Map which extends China's Nine -Dash Line imposed by it in South China sea even further to include additional control over Philippines maritime sovereignty.

It needs to be recalled that based on Philippines complaint, the International Hague Tribunal had dismissed China's sovereignty claims over the South China Sea. But China continues to defy the ruling and has embarked on heightened provocations in South China Sea.

The Philippines now finds itself more pointedly in China's military crosshairs because President Marcos Jr has doubled the access of US Military Forces to nine Filipino military bases, including some in the North facing Taiwan. 

Additionally, during present tenure of President Marcos Jr large scale Joint Military Exercises between US Forces and Philippines Armed Forces have taken place in the Philippines.

While the avowed aim of these Joint US-Philippines Military Exercises was said to dwell on 'Conter-insurgency operations', it should be apparent that the main aim is to develop interoperability to meet perceived threat from China.

US President Biden recently committed the United States to militarily assist the Philippines in event of any aggression against its sovereignty.

India like the Philippines has been the victim of Chinese aggression on its land borders with China Occupied Tibet, cartographic aggression in the same New Maps of China and China's more than intrusive presence in the Indian Ocean.

The Philippines finds itself additionally in China's military crosshairs because of India's political and military reachout to Philippines arising from India's 'Act East' policy.

India's security ties with the Philippines have intensified with India having agreed to supply the Philippines with 3x Batteries of the dreaded BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles, posting of a Defence Attache in Manila and the Philippines expressing interest in additional Brahmos Missiles Batteries along with other defence hardware.

The significance of India supplying the Philippines with BRAHMOS Missiles has not been lost on China and hence its annoyance manifested in increased provocative military actions against the Philippines.

In Conclusion, it needs to be stressed that while no formal declared synergy has taken place between the United States and India to jointly indulge in military 'capacity-building' of the Philippines, but the coincidence is there. 

And, that coincidence of United States and India is not lost on China and hence the Philippines finds itself in intensified military crosshairs of China.

CHINA'S POLITICAL AND MILITARY COERCIVE CAPABILITIES AGAINST INDIA VISIBLY LIMITED IN 2023

 China noted since 1949 as an aggressive proponent of political and military coercion against its peripheral neighbors has visibly found that in 2023 that India under Modi Regime since 2014 is no longer a 'political or military pushover' State.

In this 2014-23 period, India has exorcised the 'Ghosts of 1962 Military Debacle' then imposed by timid political leadership. India in this same period went into an overdrive to reduce its military asymmetries with China on its Northern Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

India's Galwan Military Standoff in 2020 preceded by Dokalam Military Standoff of 2017 were 'Turning Points' in the decades of India cowing down timidly under Chinese military aggression and coercion.

During Galwan 2020 in Ladakh, India mobilized and deployed more than 50,000 troops with tanks, APCs and heavy artillery. All these massive deployments in a High- Altitude terrain stood backed by considerable IAF offensive air power and air transport mobility. 

India's robust political and military responses to China's creeping aggression and coercion now empowered by rapid developing of strategic roads network and Forward Bases for Indian Air Force have lowered the threshold for Chinese military coercion.

Geopolitically, India carries added significant 'geopolitical weightage' in the strategic calculi of world capitals. China, in tandem, stands devalued geopolitically, due to its aggression in South China Sea and coercive policies against Japan and ASEAN countries.

China's attempts to destabilize the Indo Pacific has cost it heavily in terms of perceptions that it is a 'Major Threat' in the region.

Resultantly, United States deference to China's strategic sensitivities stands diminished and India increasingly sought by United States as an existential counterweight to an uncontrollable China. 

It would therefore be evident that India with robust political leadership unwilling to buckle against China's coercive capabilities enabled by military modernization and upgradation has considerably limited China's propensities of political and military coercion against India.

Concluding, what needs to be stressed is that while India in 2023 may have "limited" China's coercive capabilities against India, 'complete neutralization' of China's coercive capabilities can only take place when India develops capabilities to conduct "Offensive Operations" in China Occupied Tibet.

That should be India's military over-riding aim!!!

VIETNAM MANIFESTS S"STRATEIC TRUST" IN UNITED STATES BY SIGNING HISTORIC 'COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC AGREEMENT WITH UNITED STATES 2023 WITH UNITED STATES ED STATES

Contextually, in terms of the global geopolitical churning, Vietnam elevating its 'Comprehensive Partnership' signed in 2013 signed with the United States to that of "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" is a "Critical Development at a Critical Time" as US President Biden asserted in Hanoi on signing the 'Vietnam-United States Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" on September 10, 2023.

'Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships' are signed by two Nations when both have reached a stage of implicit 'Strategic Trust' in each other and share strategic convergences on prevailing security environments. Therefore, it can be assumed that Vietnam and United States have reached that stage.

Analytically, dispensing recount of detailed provisions already covered in global media, a perceptional analysis of this momentous strategic development follows below.

Geopolitically, the United States has assiduously engaged Vietnam strategically and politically for a decade, witnessed by US Presidents and Secretaries of State and Defense visits. Vietnam as a critical factor in US foreign and security policy formulations has figured prominently.

Vietnam's strategic significance in US geopolitical calculus has emerged with greater salience post-2013 when China under new President Xi Jinping adopted aggressive take-over of South China Sea, with Vietnam targeted.

South China Sea is strategically vital for United States national security interests and also of critical interest for economic survival of US foremost Allies in Pacific---Japan and South Korea. 

South China Sea is strategically dominated by Vietnam's elongated configuration, straddling it all the way from China to the Gulf of Thailand. Vietnam also shares a s conflictual land-border with China's Southern under-belly. 

Historically, it needs to be recalled that Vietnam heroically at different stages since 1940 has stalemated in wars Major Powers of today ranging from United States, France Japan and Communist China. In 1979, Vietnam Border Guards defeated two- Chinese Divisions attack on Vietnam's   Northern land borders.

Vietnam could shave signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with United States a decade back. But Vietnam with an aggressive and overbearing China with occupation of Vietnam Islands in South China Sea, perforce, had to follow a 'China Hedging' strategy.

Then what has made Vietnam depart from its China-Hedging strategy and opt for what is implicitly a 'strategic insurance' with the United States?

Contextual turbulent and polarized security environment in Indo Pacific, it seems has nudged Vietnam towards a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States.

 In global perceptions the United States is still the predominant power in Indo Pacific and will prevail over China in any unfolding conflict with China, which the strategic community assesses is inevitable.

Therefore, Vietnam moving out of China's shadow, brings to Vietnam an existential 'insurance' against the China Threat tentative presently but with potential to become substantial. Vietnam, as the contents of the Agreement indicate will now have access to US advanced S&T inputs and also sizeable US FDI in critical and emerging technologies.

Vietnam will now doubly be the recipient of similar inputs from US Allies in Indo Pacific, namely, Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Vietnam will thus doubly gain in terms of its 'capacity building' of Vietnam's National Power as it faces China.

The United States is a geopolitical, strategic and geoeconomic gainer with an "Irredoubtable" Vietnam having reposed 'Strategic Trust' in the predominant Power in the Indo Pacific.

Concluding, in an overall analysis, for both Vietnam and United States, it is a 'Win-Win' development, both geopolitically and geoeconomically.

Above all, the signing of the Comprehensive Stategic Agreement between Vietnam and the United States, former inveterate enemies, is a powerful signal to China wherein Vietnam, despite ideological affinity with China, has opted to repose "Strategic Trust" in the United States at a time when extreme polarization exists in the Indo Pacific between United States and China.

INDIA'S VISIBLE MULTI-PRONGED STRATEGY OF "CHINA PUSHBACK" BEING IMPLEMENTED UNOBTRSUSIVELY

 China long used to 'Risk Aversion' strategies of India under past Indian governments in tamely submitting to Chinese predatory aggressions on its Northern Borders with China Occupied Tibet finds itself being subjected to an unobtrusive Indian multi-pronged strategy of "China Pushback".

India's unobtrusive "China Pushback" Strategy is discernible in the period 2014-19 with a BJP Government under PM Narendra Modi in power in New Delhi.

PM Modi's overall focus in this strategy in his first term as Prime Minister from 2014-19 was confined to diplomatic isolation of Pakistan and use of disproportionate military force against Pakistan's incessant military provocations along the LOC in J & K State. This was a signal both to Pakistan and China that robust Indian responses would be the new norm to any border provocations.

In this first term, PM Narendra Modi made diplomatic outreaches to China though Chinese President's State visit to India (in which he was most feted) and the two Informal Summits at Wuhan in China and in Mahabalipuram, Chennai in India.

The aim of the above events retrospectively analyzed suggests that the Indian Prime Minister wished to get a personal measure of the Chinese President and also gain time to put into plan Inda's new deployment plans on the borders with China Occupied Tibet to deal with continued Chinese transgressions with impunity. This included upgradation of India's logistics, Army firepower and surveillance systems.

It also incorporated improving India's strategic military infrastructure opposite China Occupied Tibet for speedy mobilization of enhanced troops-level and logistics to sustain enhanced Indian Army deployments on borders with China Occupied Tibet

With the above taking form, one notices a discernible shift in PM Modi's both in 2018 and more noticeably in second term 2019-23 when India's military responses to China's provocative military moves against India from China Occupied Tibet were met with equal force.

Dokalam Standoff 2018 and the unprecedented military chastening of Chinese Army in Eastern Ladakh at Galwan in 2020 were shining examples of India's new resolve. 

Galwan, where Indian Army led by Colonel KD Babu MVC(Posthumous) 16 BIHAR inflicted disproportionate losses in Chinese Army soldiers 'killed', marked a turning point in India's new "China Pushback" Strategy.

For the first time since 1947 when there was only a Battalion for security of Ladakh in 1959. India has deployed a whole Corps for its security against Chinese aggression. With improved military infrastructure and air mobility logistics Indian Army has deployed over 50,000 troops in Eastern Ladakh through two winters supported by tanks and heavy artillery.

The same pattern is evident in Indian Army postures in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

Conventional deterrence was thereby imposed on China with such military measures backed by 'Political Will' of no longer any 'Risk Aversion' strategies to 'tie' the hands of Indian Army.

In tandem, with above military measures, PM Modi initiated an over-derive to make Indian Armed Forces self-reliant in military hardware by greater indigenization of defence production and coopting Indian private industry in defence production. All major arms imports were on a government-to-government dispensing with middle-men arms dealers and political corruption.

With China showing its unwillingness to arrive at reasonable 'risk-reduction' responses on disputed areas along India's borders with China Occupied Tibet and China's attempts India to down-size India's growing geopolitical stature in global organizations, one witnesses introduction of two new strands in PM Modi's 'China Pushback' policy.

These two new strands were economic curtailment of Chinese investments in India especially in sensitive domains affecting Indian defence and security.

More telling in effect on China, has been of late, a marked shift in India's policy stances on Taiwan and China Occupied Tibet.

India subtly signaled it by sending a high-powered delegation of three retired Services Chiefs to attend a notable Security Dialogue organized every year by a Taiwan think-tank. India has allowed Taiwan to increase its Liaison Offices in India. Indian Government has also encouraged Taiwanese industrial majors to establish 'microchips' manufacturing plants in India.

On Tibet, under brutal Chinese Military Occupation, one has discerned a couple of steps which would not only irritate China but also signal to China, a new resolve of India's 'China Pushback' strategy. PM Modi congratulated HH The Dalai Lama on his birthday and Indian TV Channels now show Tibetan MPs of Tibet Government-in-Exile.

China would have noticed the recent sale by India of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles to the Philippines and gifting of an Indian Navy Frigate to Vietnam. Both Philippines and Vietnam are involved in major territorial disputes with China and are strategically located on China's doorsteps.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that Modi Government's "China Pushback" Strategy, multi-pronged and in unobtrusive implementation, has not only had a telling effect on China but also has raised India's global geopolitical and strategic stature.