INDIA'S VISIBLE MULTI-PRONGED STRATEGY OF "CHINA PUSHBACK" BEING IMPLEMENTED UNOBTRSUSIVELY

 China long used to 'Risk Aversion' strategies of India under past Indian governments in tamely submitting to Chinese predatory aggressions on its Northern Borders with China Occupied Tibet finds itself being subjected to an unobtrusive Indian multi-pronged strategy of "China Pushback".

India's unobtrusive "China Pushback" Strategy is discernible in the period 2014-19 with a BJP Government under PM Narendra Modi in power in New Delhi.

PM Modi's overall focus in this strategy in his first term as Prime Minister from 2014-19 was confined to diplomatic isolation of Pakistan and use of disproportionate military force against Pakistan's incessant military provocations along the LOC in J & K State. This was a signal both to Pakistan and China that robust Indian responses would be the new norm to any border provocations.

In this first term, PM Narendra Modi made diplomatic outreaches to China though Chinese President's State visit to India (in which he was most feted) and the two Informal Summits at Wuhan in China and in Mahabalipuram, Chennai in India.

The aim of the above events retrospectively analyzed suggests that the Indian Prime Minister wished to get a personal measure of the Chinese President and also gain time to put into plan Inda's new deployment plans on the borders with China Occupied Tibet to deal with continued Chinese transgressions with impunity. This included upgradation of India's logistics, Army firepower and surveillance systems.

It also incorporated improving India's strategic military infrastructure opposite China Occupied Tibet for speedy mobilization of enhanced troops-level and logistics to sustain enhanced Indian Army deployments on borders with China Occupied Tibet

With the above taking form, one notices a discernible shift in PM Modi's both in 2018 and more noticeably in second term 2019-23 when India's military responses to China's provocative military moves against India from China Occupied Tibet were met with equal force.

Dokalam Standoff 2018 and the unprecedented military chastening of Chinese Army in Eastern Ladakh at Galwan in 2020 were shining examples of India's new resolve. 

Galwan, where Indian Army led by Colonel KD Babu MVC(Posthumous) 16 BIHAR inflicted disproportionate losses in Chinese Army soldiers 'killed', marked a turning point in India's new "China Pushback" Strategy.

For the first time since 1947 when there was only a Battalion for security of Ladakh in 1959. India has deployed a whole Corps for its security against Chinese aggression. With improved military infrastructure and air mobility logistics Indian Army has deployed over 50,000 troops in Eastern Ladakh through two winters supported by tanks and heavy artillery.

The same pattern is evident in Indian Army postures in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

Conventional deterrence was thereby imposed on China with such military measures backed by 'Political Will' of no longer any 'Risk Aversion' strategies to 'tie' the hands of Indian Army.

In tandem, with above military measures, PM Modi initiated an over-derive to make Indian Armed Forces self-reliant in military hardware by greater indigenization of defence production and coopting Indian private industry in defence production. All major arms imports were on a government-to-government dispensing with middle-men arms dealers and political corruption.

With China showing its unwillingness to arrive at reasonable 'risk-reduction' responses on disputed areas along India's borders with China Occupied Tibet and China's attempts India to down-size India's growing geopolitical stature in global organizations, one witnesses introduction of two new strands in PM Modi's 'China Pushback' policy.

These two new strands were economic curtailment of Chinese investments in India especially in sensitive domains affecting Indian defence and security.

More telling in effect on China, has been of late, a marked shift in India's policy stances on Taiwan and China Occupied Tibet.

India subtly signaled it by sending a high-powered delegation of three retired Services Chiefs to attend a notable Security Dialogue organized every year by a Taiwan think-tank. India has allowed Taiwan to increase its Liaison Offices in India. Indian Government has also encouraged Taiwanese industrial majors to establish 'microchips' manufacturing plants in India.

On Tibet, under brutal Chinese Military Occupation, one has discerned a couple of steps which would not only irritate China but also signal to China, a new resolve of India's 'China Pushback' strategy. PM Modi congratulated HH The Dalai Lama on his birthday and Indian TV Channels now show Tibetan MPs of Tibet Government-in-Exile.

China would have noticed the recent sale by India of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles to the Philippines and gifting of an Indian Navy Frigate to Vietnam. Both Philippines and Vietnam are involved in major territorial disputes with China and are strategically located on China's doorsteps.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that Modi Government's "China Pushback" Strategy, multi-pronged and in unobtrusive implementation, has not only had a telling effect on China but also has raised India's global geopolitical and strategic stature.

CHINA'S RABID RESPONSES ON INITIAL INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF UNITED STATES-JAPAN- SOUTH KOREA TRILATERAL

China has rabidly gone "ballistic' in its responses to the Joint Communique issued after the historic Camp David Summit last week after parleys between US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, indicating initial 'Institutionalizing' of security cooperation & coordination between these three powerful Nations o China's doorsteps.

Analyzed in my preceding post was the striking conclusion that any 'institutionalizing' of the Trilateral would in effect be a one more significant step by the United States in the 'Containment of China'. This Trilateral, long in coming, however, marks a 'turning point' in the security environment of Western Pacific, adding a much-needed security layer to QUAD and AUKUS.

China's rabid responses on this momentous China-centric containment initiative was not only confined to criticism of the Trilateral but also included derisive "Racist Remarks" by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi aimed at Japan and South Korea.

Chinese Foreign Ministry official reaction was that the United States-Japan-South Korea Trilateral was a 'Mini- NATO Style' military alliance aimed at containment of China. It further added that such efforts were bound to fail, and the world should note how the United States is worsening security environment in the Pacific.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was downright racists and derisive against Japan and South Korea joining the Trilateral. Sarcastically, Chinese Foreign Minister as quoted in media asserted "No matter how yellow you dye your hair, or how sharp you make your nose, you'll never turn into a European or American. You'll never be a Westerner"

Certainly, uncalled for racist remarks against Japan & South Korea's teaming up for Trilateral of security coordination of defence efforts against China Threat.

In run-up to the Trilateral Summit, China indulged in military signaling of disapproval by sending a Joint Flotilla of 11 Ships of Chinese Navy and Russian Navy to waters around Okinawa Island.

Before concluding, it would be pertinent to point out that the Trilateral Summit Communique did not confine the scope of institutionalizing to security matters but also to economic cooperation and intensification of 'people to peoples' exchanges.

The last two could be expected to add more confidence-building initiatives to the so-far 'estranged relationship' between Japan and South Korea.

China is expecting that ultimately domestic politics within Japan and South Korea would fray the Trilateral cohesion. China can be expected to indulge in 'Influence Operations' in Japan and South Korea for 'divisions' to emerge and break the Trilateral Alliance evolving in firmer contours,

China is unlikely to make much headway in this direction, simply, because post-Ukraine and China's threatening moves on Taiwan Military Invasion, deep-rooted 'strategic distrust' of China is a marked sentiment which has impelled Japan and South Korea to cast aside their past historical recriminations. 

Concluding, it is my assessment that the United States-Japan- South Korea Trilateral Alliance will not only survive, but also evolve with firmer contours, with China, on present indicators, not desisting from destabilization of the Western Pacific, more pointedly, it challenges United States predominance in the Pacific.  

UNITED STATES-JAPAN-SOUTH KOREA TRRILATERAL SUMMIT IN WASHINGTON AUGUST 18, 2023, CHECKMATING CHINA

 In yet another momentous strategic step by United States, China will be checkmated by the long-awaited United States-Japan-South Korea Trilateral synthesizing joint military capabilities to be superimposed on the existing Indo Pacific Security Template led by the United States.

So far for last 70 years, while the United States had Bilateral Mutual Security Treaties separately with Japan and South Korea and had 30,000 to 40,000 US Troops as Forward Military Presence each in both these Nations in Northwest Pacific Quadrant on China's doorsteps, what was strategically and sorely missed was an integrated US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral as an effective phalanx against the China Threat.

China until recently had studiously carried on a systematic campaign and had succeeded to keep South Korea distant from Japan preying on historical wrongs that South Korea perceived on Japan's colonial rule over South Korea from 1910-1945.

With the advent of South Korea President Yoon in office and realistically responding to the intensifying China Threat to regional security coupled with growing belligerence of China's nuclear proxy on the Korean Penisula--North Korea, President Yoon of South Korea realized the imperatives of forging a US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral to increase greater military cooperation trilaterally in the interests of regional security.

Thereafter followed numerous rounds of dialogues between the three Nations to evolve plans and mechanisms for greater pooling of security cooperation, and the forthcoming Trilateral Summit in Washington on August 18, 2023, marks the culmination of this joint Trilateral efforts.

The Washington Summit of United States, Japan and South Korea is highly symbolic for IndoPacific Security in that it will reflect the commitments of United States, Japan and South Korea to forge a united front against China Threat.

This symbolism is not lost on China. For weeks anticipating the evolution of this Trilateral and its consecration at Washington Summit on August 18, 2023, China though its media organ 'Global Times' has assiduously carried editorials, columns & commentaries cautioning Japan and South Korea not to fall into the US trap.

Optically, China through these writings seemed frantically desperate that South Korea should not join the Trilateral saying that why should South Koreans become "cannon-fodder" for the United States.

China is deeply concerned as in military terms it carries dangerous portents in terms of checkmating China's unbridled predatory rampage in Western Pacific.

More to the point, it is my assessment that when President Biden sits down with Japanese PM Kishida and South Korea President Yoon in Washington on August 18, 2023, the hot topic which may not come out in public domain, will be the enlistment of South Korea to supplement US and Japan responses in the event of China's military invasion of Taiwan. Herein comes into play South Krean military might in a well-coordinated Trilateral response to China both against Taiwan and against South Korea through North Korea proxy.

Concluding, having had first-hand experience to see Armed Forces of Japan and South Korea both in training and war-contingency maneuvers, I can vouchsafe to the tremendous military punch that Soth Korea adds to the US-Japan military effort against any Chinese Threat.

The US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral, militarily integrated, by itself, is a strong existential in-location deterrence against China's military adventurism.

CHINA ON COLLISION TRAJECTORY WITH UNITED STATES IN INDO PACIFIC IN 2023

The Indo Pacific, 75 years since the last Korean War, in which newly emerged Communist China challenged the United States in a Major War on the Korean Peninsula, once again witnesses China headed on other Major War with the United States, unless prudence overtakes the megalomaniac impulses of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Unlike Korean War 1949-50, any future war which China provokes the United States into an armed conflict, inherently incorporates the possibilities of a wider Major War involving not only Indo Pacific countries but also Europe and Russia forced to side with China.

China with its amassed military power exponentially built up in last 20 years, when United States was strategically distracted by its military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, is itching to flex its military muscles.

Chinese President Xi Jinping having had his way in establishing 'Full Spectrum Dominance' over the South China Sea without any checkmating by Bush and President Obama Administrations was led into the belief that "US Power was on the Decline'.

However, follow-up US Presidents Trump and Joe Biden have adopted Hard Line strategies towards China which while not dispensing dialogues with China incorporates Trade Wars and even firm contours of a 'China Containment Policy'.

In 2023, United States strategic policies of a mix of Trade Wars and Containment have started hurting China and more specifically the image of Chinese President Xi Jinping whose signature swing from decades of 'Soft Power' usage was replaced by Xi's muscular 'Hard Line' strategies.

So, in 2023 we are witnessing the kinetics of both China and the United States engaged in a confrontation of 'Hard Line Strategies' against each other.

The Indo Pacific Regin in 2023 is sitting on an explosive gunpowder-keg which even a small unintended incendiary spark can ignite a possible Worl War III.

In my assessment that 'Incendiary Spark' will be ignited by China and not the United States. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping has too many high-profile stakes in the 'flash points' that he has ignited on China's peripheries since 2013. Domestically, President cannot afford to climb down on these flashpoints without endangering his regime.

Post-Ukraine War in which Russia is stuck in a quagmire of its own creation, Russia's geopolitical and military dependence on China has intensified. This has forced Russia to actively participate in Joint Air Patrols with Chinese Air Force combat planes over adjoining Seas of Japan and South Korea. Additionally, Russia has been drawn-in by China to take part in similar provocative Joint Naval Exercises in these contested spaces.

The moot question that emerges from such a hostile, contested and confrontationist security environment in Western Pacific, is that for how long the United States can exercise "Strategic Restraint"' against an aggressive and bellicose China intent on challenging United States predominance in Indo Pacific?

In Conclusion, the assessment that I wish to offer is that "Strategic Restraint" of the United States is wearing thin, going by ongoing US military developments in Indo Pacific.

The United States will not be the first one to ignite the spark of a Major War in Indo Pacific. The United States will await China to do so.

The United States would, however, be well-advised to bear the lessons of the Korean Warin its strategic planning. China then with a primitive military machine and no nuclear weapons, dared to challenge the United States then a Sole Nuclear Power in the world.

In 2023 and beyond, China bristling with a nuclear weapons arsenal and a formidable military machine can be expected to be more aggressive and vicious in its next War with the United States & US Allies.

   

NATO VILNIUS SUMMIT 2023 AND INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Op Ed published on the quoted subject carried by Eurasia Review. See at

https://eurasiareview.com/15072023-nato-vilnius-summit-indo-pacific-security-oped/

NATO seriously concerned by systemic challenges posed by China to Indo Pacific security and also to European security.

NATO can be expected to intensify its strategic outreach to Indo Pacific