INDIA AND INDO PACIFIC SECURITY---STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES MUST PREDOMINATE GEOPOLITICAL BALANCING

'Geopolitical Balancing' has long been the forte' of the Indian policy establishment but with global geopolitics heavily polarized post-Ukraine Invasion by Russia, no policy spaces exist for geopolitical balancing by India between the United States-led Indo Pacific security order and the much-crystallized Russia-China Axis.

India in 2023 has to make fateful choices wherein Indian policy establishment needs to give a pass to geopolitical balancing between two opposing Power Blocs now set on path of armed confrontation and let more critical strategic imperatives be determinants of India's policy postures.

The Russia-China Axis is now an established strategic reality and cannot be wished away. In terms of India's policy formulations, India long depended on Russia as a trusted friend to prevail over China for restraint in escalation of military confrontation on India's Norhtern Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

Russia with an utter political and economic dependency on China and which dependency is likely to intensify is decreasingly ineffective as an existential countervailing influence on China.

Russia-India relations can be said to have entered a phase of strategic denouement in which both sides have lost most of the strategic convergences which prevailed in earlier decades, markedly so, as the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership has acquired substantial contours.

Today, the picture prevailing is that the United States and India share more strategic convergences on global issue and regional threats, than India shares with Russia.

The United States growingly perceives India as a pivotal strategic partner where with growing 'Strategic Trust', the United States sees merit in giving India access and sharing even 'Critical Technologies' besides designating India as a 'Preferred Strategic Partner'.

Can India therefore persist in continuing to be a member of US-led QUAD and China-dominated SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) at the same time when both are patently Security Groupings strategically aimed at each other?

Can India afford to remain as Member of BRICS wherein India stands singly alone with Russia, China, and South Africa beholden to each other to the extent of Joint Naval Exercises in the Indian Ocean Rim?

Strategic Reality Check would suggest an emphatic NO as the answer. India should therefore dispense with its SCO and BRICS affiliations.

Contextually, therefore, India has critical policy challenges of shedding the ambiguities that plague Indian policymaking, in which " Neutral Stances or Strategic Non-Alignment or Non-Alignment 2.0 are NO LONGER VALID CHOICES"

Concluding, it is strongly emphasized that India as an aspiring Major Global Power must not be seen as 'dithering' in terms of its capability of making 'Hard Strategic Choices'.

India in 2023 is a 'Natural Ally" of the West led by United States and which has in its fold Major West European Nations, Japan, Australia and South Korea with which India has forged Strategic Relationships. 

India' by its demonstrated policy preferences of last two decades has vividly thrown its lot as 'Natural Ally' of the West and should firmly stick to this course otherwise India with its perceived policy ambiguities in the unpredictable global churning currently in play could end up as a strategic loser.     

 

Tod

  

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC DIMINUTION POST UKRAINE IMBROGLIO: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Russia in early 2023 stands diminished in global stature--geopolitically, militarily and economically, after one year of being stalemated in its 'War of Choice' needlessly inflicted on Ukraine by President Putin. This raises grave implications for Indo Pacific security and global security too.

Strategically diminished Russia now stands reduced to utter geopolitical, military and economic dependency on China --the only Major Power extending Russia political and economic support besides funneling military ad for Russian war effort through Third Parties.

Russia's strategic dependency on China which hovers over the Indo Pacific in terms of 'China Threat' topping Threat Perceptions generates significant geopolitical and security dynamics impacting the whole region.

 In global geopolitics, in the pre-Ukraine Invasion period, Russia with its erstwhile Superpower credentials towered above China. The position is now changing.

Russia in 2023 is slipping into a secondary geopolitical position below China. This trend is likely to accentuate as Rusia finds itself more stalemated in Ukraine and Russa's dependency on China becomes more comprehensive.

The dynamics so generated from the above evolving eventuality in Indo Pacific is that China emerges in the pole position in the China-Russia Axis confronting the United States& Allies and Strategic Partners.

In other words, China does not have to share "Strategic Space" in Indo Pacific Region with Russia, moreso, in Western Pacific.

China so elevated in 'Power Stature' is likely to become more aggressive on its peripheries from Idia to Western Pacific as Russia would no longer be in a position to counsel China for patience and restraint.

Conversely, China without the comprehensively "strong backup support" of Russia wakened in geopolitical and military stature may become more restrained in its military adventurism and brinkmanship in Indo Pacific.

In my assessment, it would be against President Xi Jinping's demonstrated character and propensities to deviate from his stated objective of "Great China Dream"   and adopt a trajectory of reconciliation and responsible politics with China's Neighbours stretching from India to Japan and South Korea.

Concluding, with such dynamics in play, the impact of Russia's post-Ukraine strategic diminution, will induce greater polarization in Indo Pacific against China.

 The above is already underway noticeably with South Korea and Philippines returning to the United States strategic fold after some years of flirtation with China. Australia too even with change of political power has indicated its continued strong commitment to US-led Indo Pacific Security Template put into place to counter the disruptive China Theat.

INDO PACIFIC WESTERN FLANK STRATEGICALLY ENDANGERED BY HOSTILE PAKISTAN-RUSSIA-IRAN-CHINA (PRIC) QUARTET

The QUAD Coalition Nations (United States, Japan, India & Australia) long focused strategically on the China Threat to maritime domains of the Pacific Ocean & Indian Ocean seem to have been oblivious to its Western Flank being endangered by the emerging diabolical PRIC Quartet---namely Pakistan. Russia, Iran & China.

PRIC (Acronym) selected by me, is aptly descriptive of this Diabolical Quartet endangering QUAD's Western Flank and predominantly encompasses the wide landmass of Asian Heartland & Southern Asia, simply because strategically the PRIC Quartet can neutralize most of QUAD's strategic objectives in relation to China Threat.

The PRIC Quartet's defining hallmark is that Pakistan, Russia, Iran and China, in 2023, have strong strategic convergences of geopolitical opposition to the United States, and by extension to Japan, India and Australia.

Needless to reiterate that the China Threat figures uppermost in strategic formulations of QUAD Nations, and it is that what binds the QUAD together strongly.

Incorporating Pakistan and Iran in PRIC Quartet enables China-Russia Axis to have a firm and strong foothold on the North Arabian Sea Littoral with Gwadur in Pakistan and Chah Bahar & other Iranian naval bases. 

This enables China & Russia to pose both a land and navel threat to QUAD's Western Flank.

Significantly, the Nations comprising PRIC Quartet all possess Nuclear Weapons. This is in marked contrast to the QUAD Coalition which only has United States and India as Nuclear Weapons States.

In 2023, the PRIC Quartet has not yet reached the multilateral integration of security content as the QUAD Nations. The security linkages are overlapping though bilateral with China and Russia.

The PRIC Quartet is a 'Trend-in Making', my favorite term, which if crystallizes like the QUAD, could endanger the Western Flank of QUAD.

In civilizational terms of Samuel Huntington's thesis, the PRIC Quartet represents the Sinnic-Islamic Coalition with Slavic Russia as an additive.

Concluding, the PRIC Quartet's sprouting will be more significantly impact the United States national security interests not only in Indo Pacific but also West Asia more critically. Undoubtedly, it would have global implications.

The United States should tread cautiously as it attempts to retrieve an "unreliable" Pakistan as 'Frontline State' of China, from its political and economic meltdown.

QUAD NEEDS STRATEGIC FOCUS ON SOUTHERN SEGMENTS OF PACIFIC & INDIAN OCEANS

China's intrusive strategic forays in Southern Pacific Islands and the China-Russia-South Africa Joint Military Exercises should be a source of strategic concern to the QUAD Security Initiative Nations---United States, Japan, India and Australia.

The QUAD, which is basically with a maritime orientation, seems focused on the Northern segments of both Oceans of Indo Pacific with checkmating China, keeping it confined to the Western Pacific where most of its predatory maritime forays have occurred.

China over the last few years has been silently wooing South Pacific Islands in Australia's backyard with various economic inducements. Today China has marshalled considerable clout and presence in South Pacific.

China could achieve this as for many years Australia had Prime Ministers who were 'soft' on China and were oblivious to the strategic aims of China in South Pacific.

The China-Russia Axis, more pronounced post-Ukraine, has sprung into action lately to induce the strategically located Nation of South Africa, rich resources of strategic minerals into joining China and Russia in Joint Military Exercises.

In both cases the main aim of China and Rusia is to wean away QUAD's strategic focus from Western Pacific which is the Pacific littoral of China.

Of the two emerging threats, China's strategic intrusiveness is more potent as it has already established substantial linkages in South Pacific, including security cooperation, especially with Solomon Islands.

Russia-China-South Africa Joint Military Exercises presently need to be viewed as more of 'geopolitical signaling'. However, it is a trend -in -the making and has the potentials to emerge as a potent threat in Southern Indian Ocean which is Idia's strategic backyard.

QUAD therefore needs to pay added strategic focus to the Southern Segments of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean.

Concluding, QUAD could ponder over division of, or, added naval responsibilities to Australian Navy for Southern Pacific and Indian Navy for the Southern Indian Ocean. 

As China gets more hemmed-in in Western Pacific it will be tempted to outflank QUAD's naval predominance on its Pacific littoral by strategic forays on Southern Segments of Pacific and Indian Oceans.

 

NATO CHIEF'S VISITS TO SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN IN JANUAARY 2023 STRATEGICALLY SIGNIFICANT

Geopolitically, Russia's year-long attempts to annex Ukraine by invasion and China's threats to militarily annex Taiwan's merger with mainland China have spawned in 2023 deep fears from Europe to Indo Pacific of a disruptive push-back by world's largest combine of Communist Dictatorships.

Contextually, therefore, the recent tour of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg to Japan and South Korea in end-January 2023needs to be viewed in the above context.

Strategically significant is that NATO's strategic gaze and imprints which stood extended only up to involvement in Afghanistan in support of United States now portend that NATO is seized with extension of its strategic gaze to involvement in the security and stability of Indo Pacific, especially Japan and South Korea in Western Pacific.

Major European Powers have singly declared at international forums like the Shangri-la Dialogue that they have vital stakes in security and stability of Indo Pacific.

Recalling notably, both Japan and South Korea are Mutual Security Pact signatories with the United States. Earlier this security mosaic was tailored against the Soviet Threat. 

With disintegration of Soviet Union and the exponential rise of Chinese military power in the first decade of this Century and its aggressive manifestations in the second decade in South China Sea to Japan and South Korea's backyards, the China Threat has emerged as a serious challenge to Japan and South Korea.

The China Threat to Japan and South Korea stands further amplified by China's proxy use of North Korea, nuclear armed courtesy China, for military coercion of these two US Allies.

 North Korea is the 'Force Multiplier' of China against Japan and South Korea along with posing a threat to Homeland United States by its claimed nuclear-tipped IRB BMs

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has spawned wider dimensions of security concerns beyond European Borders and has an over-arching impact on Indo Pacific Security, and more specifically on Japan and South Korea. 

These wider strategic concerns stand generated by the fact that in recent years the Russia-China Strategic Nexus has crystallized deeper as in national security threat perceptions of both United States and Major European Powers, both Russia and China figure prominently.

China just a month before Russia's invasion of Ukraine had declared during Russian President Putin's visit to Beijing that the Russia-China strategic partnership had "No Limits" and further that it was much "More than an Alliance". It was an ominous assertion.

NATOs strategic outreach to Japan and South Korea was therefore a logical corollary arising from the reality that both Japan and South Korea ever after end of World War II in August 1945 have figured in United States security architecture as staunch Allies.

NATO's strategic outreach to Japan and South Korea was visible prominently from last year when both these nations were invited to attend the NATO Summit in Madrid which charted NATO's strategic blueprint for the 2030s.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that NATO both in extending its strategic reach to Indo Pacific and co-opting Japan and South Korea in more proximate security linkages, is in effect creating existential military counterweights in China's backyard as important pieces in overall containment of combined Russia-China Threats.

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