INDO PACIFIC WESTERN FLANK STRATEGICALLY ENDANGERED BY HOSTILE PAKISTAN-RUSSIA-IRAN-CHINA (PRIC) QUARTET

The QUAD Coalition Nations (United States, Japan, India & Australia) long focused strategically on the China Threat to maritime domains of the Pacific Ocean & Indian Ocean seem to have been oblivious to its Western Flank being endangered by the emerging diabolical PRIC Quartet---namely Pakistan. Russia, Iran & China.

PRIC (Acronym) selected by me, is aptly descriptive of this Diabolical Quartet endangering QUAD's Western Flank and predominantly encompasses the wide landmass of Asian Heartland & Southern Asia, simply because strategically the PRIC Quartet can neutralize most of QUAD's strategic objectives in relation to China Threat.

The PRIC Quartet's defining hallmark is that Pakistan, Russia, Iran and China, in 2023, have strong strategic convergences of geopolitical opposition to the United States, and by extension to Japan, India and Australia.

Needless to reiterate that the China Threat figures uppermost in strategic formulations of QUAD Nations, and it is that what binds the QUAD together strongly.

Incorporating Pakistan and Iran in PRIC Quartet enables China-Russia Axis to have a firm and strong foothold on the North Arabian Sea Littoral with Gwadur in Pakistan and Chah Bahar & other Iranian naval bases. 

This enables China & Russia to pose both a land and navel threat to QUAD's Western Flank.

Significantly, the Nations comprising PRIC Quartet all possess Nuclear Weapons. This is in marked contrast to the QUAD Coalition which only has United States and India as Nuclear Weapons States.

In 2023, the PRIC Quartet has not yet reached the multilateral integration of security content as the QUAD Nations. The security linkages are overlapping though bilateral with China and Russia.

The PRIC Quartet is a 'Trend-in Making', my favorite term, which if crystallizes like the QUAD, could endanger the Western Flank of QUAD.

In civilizational terms of Samuel Huntington's thesis, the PRIC Quartet represents the Sinnic-Islamic Coalition with Slavic Russia as an additive.

Concluding, the PRIC Quartet's sprouting will be more significantly impact the United States national security interests not only in Indo Pacific but also West Asia more critically. Undoubtedly, it would have global implications.

The United States should tread cautiously as it attempts to retrieve an "unreliable" Pakistan as 'Frontline State' of China, from its political and economic meltdown.

QUAD NEEDS STRATEGIC FOCUS ON SOUTHERN SEGMENTS OF PACIFIC & INDIAN OCEANS

China's intrusive strategic forays in Southern Pacific Islands and the China-Russia-South Africa Joint Military Exercises should be a source of strategic concern to the QUAD Security Initiative Nations---United States, Japan, India and Australia.

The QUAD, which is basically with a maritime orientation, seems focused on the Northern segments of both Oceans of Indo Pacific with checkmating China, keeping it confined to the Western Pacific where most of its predatory maritime forays have occurred.

China over the last few years has been silently wooing South Pacific Islands in Australia's backyard with various economic inducements. Today China has marshalled considerable clout and presence in South Pacific.

China could achieve this as for many years Australia had Prime Ministers who were 'soft' on China and were oblivious to the strategic aims of China in South Pacific.

The China-Russia Axis, more pronounced post-Ukraine, has sprung into action lately to induce the strategically located Nation of South Africa, rich resources of strategic minerals into joining China and Russia in Joint Military Exercises.

In both cases the main aim of China and Rusia is to wean away QUAD's strategic focus from Western Pacific which is the Pacific littoral of China.

Of the two emerging threats, China's strategic intrusiveness is more potent as it has already established substantial linkages in South Pacific, including security cooperation, especially with Solomon Islands.

Russia-China-South Africa Joint Military Exercises presently need to be viewed as more of 'geopolitical signaling'. However, it is a trend -in -the making and has the potentials to emerge as a potent threat in Southern Indian Ocean which is Idia's strategic backyard.

QUAD therefore needs to pay added strategic focus to the Southern Segments of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean.

Concluding, QUAD could ponder over division of, or, added naval responsibilities to Australian Navy for Southern Pacific and Indian Navy for the Southern Indian Ocean. 

As China gets more hemmed-in in Western Pacific it will be tempted to outflank QUAD's naval predominance on its Pacific littoral by strategic forays on Southern Segments of Pacific and Indian Oceans.

 

NATO CHIEF'S VISITS TO SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN IN JANUAARY 2023 STRATEGICALLY SIGNIFICANT

Geopolitically, Russia's year-long attempts to annex Ukraine by invasion and China's threats to militarily annex Taiwan's merger with mainland China have spawned in 2023 deep fears from Europe to Indo Pacific of a disruptive push-back by world's largest combine of Communist Dictatorships.

Contextually, therefore, the recent tour of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg to Japan and South Korea in end-January 2023needs to be viewed in the above context.

Strategically significant is that NATO's strategic gaze and imprints which stood extended only up to involvement in Afghanistan in support of United States now portend that NATO is seized with extension of its strategic gaze to involvement in the security and stability of Indo Pacific, especially Japan and South Korea in Western Pacific.

Major European Powers have singly declared at international forums like the Shangri-la Dialogue that they have vital stakes in security and stability of Indo Pacific.

Recalling notably, both Japan and South Korea are Mutual Security Pact signatories with the United States. Earlier this security mosaic was tailored against the Soviet Threat. 

With disintegration of Soviet Union and the exponential rise of Chinese military power in the first decade of this Century and its aggressive manifestations in the second decade in South China Sea to Japan and South Korea's backyards, the China Threat has emerged as a serious challenge to Japan and South Korea.

The China Threat to Japan and South Korea stands further amplified by China's proxy use of North Korea, nuclear armed courtesy China, for military coercion of these two US Allies.

 North Korea is the 'Force Multiplier' of China against Japan and South Korea along with posing a threat to Homeland United States by its claimed nuclear-tipped IRB BMs

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has spawned wider dimensions of security concerns beyond European Borders and has an over-arching impact on Indo Pacific Security, and more specifically on Japan and South Korea. 

These wider strategic concerns stand generated by the fact that in recent years the Russia-China Strategic Nexus has crystallized deeper as in national security threat perceptions of both United States and Major European Powers, both Russia and China figure prominently.

China just a month before Russia's invasion of Ukraine had declared during Russian President Putin's visit to Beijing that the Russia-China strategic partnership had "No Limits" and further that it was much "More than an Alliance". It was an ominous assertion.

NATOs strategic outreach to Japan and South Korea was therefore a logical corollary arising from the reality that both Japan and South Korea ever after end of World War II in August 1945 have figured in United States security architecture as staunch Allies.

NATO's strategic outreach to Japan and South Korea was visible prominently from last year when both these nations were invited to attend the NATO Summit in Madrid which charted NATO's strategic blueprint for the 2030s.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that NATO both in extending its strategic reach to Indo Pacific and co-opting Japan and South Korea in more proximate security linkages, is in effect creating existential military counterweights in China's backyard as important pieces in overall containment of combined Russia-China Threats.

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CHINA STARES AT OVERWHELMING STRATEGIC VULNERABITIES IN 2023-REGIONAL AND CLOBAL IMPACT

China on the threshold of 2023 despite Chinese President Xi Jinping having secured an unprecedented third term as President is perceptionaly beset with strategic vulnerabilities that leave China besieged externally and internally.

China stands externally besieged as a result of extreme polarization against China arising from cumulative aggressive impulses of President Xi Jinping spreading across from South China Sea to India's borders with China Occupied Tibet and to political and military coercion of Japan.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has unprecedently raised China's military annexation of Taiwan to war-like pitch. Coming as it is against backdrop of China's switch under Xi from 'Soft Power' strategy o 'Hard Power' strategy has further added to China's image in 2023 as not only an irresponsible stakeholder in regional security but an aggressor with propensity to impose its will by military. force.

United States stands committed to security of Taiwan and this inherently portends a possible military showdown of China with United States. The outcome is heavily weighted against China.

Regionally, discernible are also two security -related trends taking shape. The first trend underway is a greater intensification and finetuning of integration of existing US security alliances with Japan, South Korea and Australia. 

The second trend is to forge security coalitions, if not formal military alliances, to provide an existential checkmate to China. The QUAD comprising United States, India, Japan and Australia being a notable example.

Globally, the impact of China's "Strategic Delinquencies" has been that even Europe and NATO, far removed from Indo Pacific have become alive to the China Threat. In 'NATO Blueprint for the 2030s, the China Threat figures as a major policy planning factor.

 This is both in context of Major European Powers having a stake in Indo Pacific trade and security but also of China attempting to gain strategic footprints in economically weaker and vulnerable Southern European countries--- the Southern Flank of NATO.

Post-Ukraine invasion by Russia, fears of China repeating a similar military operation against Taiwan have magnified. The alarm is more because a weakened Russia has no longer any leverages over China of applying restraint to Chinese military adventurism.

Global geopolitical churning against China has besieged China economically in more ways than one. China's economic growth rates have slumped from double-digits to six percent.  Chinese defence expenditure has soared as a result of being externally and internally being besieged. Internal Security has taken away the bulk of China's defence budget signifying domestic turbulence. 

China's economic woes are markedly significant in 2023 as a result of two successive US Presidents imposing Trade Wars/ Sanctions on China. As an outcome China is witnessing a "Flight of Foreign Capital' from China's core economic sector of manufacturing industries. Major Foreign Companies are relocating their assets to India and Vietnam.

China consequently can be expected to witness widespread domestic turbulence arising from industrial depletion, shrinking job market and inflation.

More than any other factor, China at beginning of 2023 is deluged with massive redux of Wuhan 19 Corona Virus affecting millions of Chinese and with China's Communist Government unable to cope with the Panendemic Deluge. This sets in motion wider domestic turbulence.

It was China under President Xi which inflicted a Global Covid Pandemic arising from China's Wuhan Biological Warfare Laboratories with devastating results on global economies and millions of lives lost.

Ironically, Providence in natural justice visitation has inflicted Wuhan Covid Virus 2.0 on China itself with more devastating economic lasses and millions of Chinese lives lost by January 2023. China is likely to be enfeebled by this devastation.

Pertinent therefore it is to examine as to what are Chinese President Xi Jinping's options faced with major setbacks to realize his grandiose 'Greater China Dream?  

Will China witness a political and economic 'Implosion' that could bring about a regime -change in Beijing? Or that like all Communist Dictators Chinese President Xi Jinping will resort to greater military aggression against Neighbours to divert attention away from domestic turbulence?

The latter option seems more probable when contextually viewed with President Xi Jinping's predatory instincts.

Concluding, it needs to be observed that in either option above, China is headed for turbulent times externally and internally with unpredictable consequences. Moreso, when China's strategic vulnerabilities have peaked in 2023.

 India would be China's prime target in China's turbulent scenarios as the South Asian Theatre gives China the option of a 'Dual Front War' with Pakistan in tow' and also that this strategy enables China to dilute military pressures on China's Pacific littoral by United States & Allies.

SOUTH KOREA ASSERTS NEW INDO PACIFIC STRATEGY ALIGNED FIRMLY WITH UNITED STATES STRATEGY

Significantly, South Korea's new President Yoon announced formally his nation's "Indo Pacific Strategy" which shed the strategic ambiguity of past Presidents, and in 2023, aligns South Korea more firmly with the United States Indo Pacific Security Strategy aimed at checkmating China's predatory instincts.

South Korea while stressing diplomatically that its strategy is all-inclusive and not aimed at any one country, however, in the enunciation of its core principles leaves no space for any ambiguities that the underlying sentiment is dealing with the threats that China is posing over the vast expanse of Indo Pacific.

The South Korean Indo Pacific Strategy emphasizes that South Korea subscribes to a 'Rules-based International Order' and opposes any moves by any nation to 'Change the existing regional order by use of Military Force'.

These two main principles picked out of the other principles indicates significantly South Korea's firm alignment with Strategic interests of United States and its Allies/ Strategic Partners subscribing to Indo Pacific security. The language is similar to that used by United States, Japan, Australia and India in diplomatic statements.

The intended target in these assertions is China and the China Threat that stands manifested from South China Sea to Senkaku Islands and the Korean Peninsula where China uses its nuclear proxy North Korea to destabilize security and stability in the region.

 Additionally, South Korea intends to reach-out diplomatically and strategically, in terms of bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral partnerships with countries of Indo Pacific sharing the two major principles enunciated in an earlier paragraph.

Special mention here is made of United States, Japan, Australia and India--- notably the QUAD partners.

South Korea already has a Mutual Security Treaty with the United States and hosts significant US Forward Military Presence at South Korean military bases.

In terms of 'Trilateral' security cooperation, it stands pointed out in an earlier Blog that with President Yoon assuming power in South Korea notable steps/ discussions are underway to forge a long-awaited US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral.

The South Korean pointer towards 'Multilateral' security partnerships is towards the QUAD. In a previous Blog, I had emphasized the imperatives to enlarge the QUAD to QUAD + 2 to include South Korea.

South Korea today is economically and a militarily vibrant nation. It has made tremendous strides from the 1980s when I was accredited to South Korea for four years while posted to a diplomatic military posting in Tokyo.

Accretion of South Korea to any Trilateral or Multilateral security arrangements in the region in Indo Pacific would be a substantial gain in military strength and combat potential. 

Other than China, which surely is going to be rattled by South Krea's unveiling of its Indo Pacific Strategy, all Major Nations of Indo Pacific will hail South Korea moving away from its 'strategic ambiguity' on China.

In Conclusion, two points need to be stressed and these are that South Korea should persist in the Indo Pacific Strategy enunciated, and secondly, that Major Nations of Indo Pacific should stand with South Korea as China applies economic screws as ripostes to South Korea firmly aligning itself with the United States & Allies/Strategic Partners.