China on the threshold of 2023 despite Chinese President Xi Jinping having secured an unprecedented third term as President is perceptionaly beset with strategic vulnerabilities that leave China besieged externally and internally.
China stands externally besieged as a result of extreme polarization against China arising from cumulative aggressive impulses of President Xi Jinping spreading across from South China Sea to India's borders with China Occupied Tibet and to political and military coercion of Japan.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has unprecedently raised China's military annexation of Taiwan to war-like pitch. Coming as it is against backdrop of China's switch under Xi from 'Soft Power' strategy o 'Hard Power' strategy has further added to China's image in 2023 as not only an irresponsible stakeholder in regional security but an aggressor with propensity to impose its will by military. force.
United States stands committed to security of Taiwan and this inherently portends a possible military showdown of China with United States. The outcome is heavily weighted against China.
Regionally, discernible are also two security -related trends taking shape. The first trend underway is a greater intensification and finetuning of integration of existing US security alliances with Japan, South Korea and Australia.
The second trend is to forge security coalitions, if not formal military alliances, to provide an existential checkmate to China. The QUAD comprising United States, India, Japan and Australia being a notable example.
Globally, the impact of China's "Strategic Delinquencies" has been that even Europe and NATO, far removed from Indo Pacific have become alive to the China Threat. In 'NATO Blueprint for the 2030s, the China Threat figures as a major policy planning factor.
This is both in context of Major European Powers having a stake in Indo Pacific trade and security but also of China attempting to gain strategic footprints in economically weaker and vulnerable Southern European countries--- the Southern Flank of NATO.
Post-Ukraine invasion by Russia, fears of China repeating a similar military operation against Taiwan have magnified. The alarm is more because a weakened Russia has no longer any leverages over China of applying restraint to Chinese military adventurism.
Global geopolitical churning against China has besieged China economically in more ways than one. China's economic growth rates have slumped from double-digits to six percent. Chinese defence expenditure has soared as a result of being externally and internally being besieged. Internal Security has taken away the bulk of China's defence budget signifying domestic turbulence.
China's economic woes are markedly significant in 2023 as a result of two successive US Presidents imposing Trade Wars/ Sanctions on China. As an outcome China is witnessing a "Flight of Foreign Capital' from China's core economic sector of manufacturing industries. Major Foreign Companies are relocating their assets to India and Vietnam.
China consequently can be expected to witness widespread domestic turbulence arising from industrial depletion, shrinking job market and inflation.
More than any other factor, China at beginning of 2023 is deluged with massive redux of Wuhan 19 Corona Virus affecting millions of Chinese and with China's Communist Government unable to cope with the Panendemic Deluge. This sets in motion wider domestic turbulence.
It was China under President Xi which inflicted a Global Covid Pandemic arising from China's Wuhan Biological Warfare Laboratories with devastating results on global economies and millions of lives lost.
Ironically, Providence in natural justice visitation has inflicted Wuhan Covid Virus 2.0 on China itself with more devastating economic lasses and millions of Chinese lives lost by January 2023. China is likely to be enfeebled by this devastation.
Pertinent therefore it is to examine as to what are Chinese President Xi Jinping's options faced with major setbacks to realize his grandiose 'Greater China Dream?
Will China witness a political and economic 'Implosion' that could bring about a regime -change in Beijing? Or that like all Communist Dictators Chinese President Xi Jinping will resort to greater military aggression against Neighbours to divert attention away from domestic turbulence?
The latter option seems more probable when contextually viewed with President Xi Jinping's predatory instincts.
Concluding, it needs to be observed that in either option above, China is headed for turbulent times externally and internally with unpredictable consequences. Moreso, when China's strategic vulnerabilities have peaked in 2023.
India would be China's prime target in China's turbulent scenarios as the South Asian Theatre gives China the option of a 'Dual Front War' with Pakistan in tow' and also that this strategy enables China to dilute military pressures on China's Pacific littoral by United States & Allies.
No comments:
Post a Comment