CHINA-CENTRIC SECURITY COALITIONS OVERSHADOW INDO PACIFIC ECONOMIC ORGANISATIONS

 In 2021, in the wake of the 'China Threat' being escalated to explosive levels by Communist China under leadership of President Xi Jinping , geopolitical and geostrategic churning in its wake has been marked by the overshadowing of existing Indo Pacific economic organisations like APEC and EAS  by security coalitions like The QUAD  and AUKUS.

In the first two decades of 21st Century, the United States as the Global Superpower with high stakes in Indo Pacific security and stability vainly hoped that Communist China would adapt itself to emerge as a benign stakeholder in Indo Pacific security and stability.

But the Communist Rulers in Beijing emboldened by United States reluctance to checkmate Communist China's exponential military buildup and misperceived notions that the 'China Card' was still operative in Beijing's favor embarked on military confrontations from Japan, Taiwan, South China Sea to Eastern Ladakh.

The United States belatedly realized that Communist China had no inclinations to contribute to Indo Pacific security except on Communist China's terms. Beijing with its military aggression in South China Sea signaled to United States that Communist China was not only intent on challenging United States predominance in the Western Pacific but also had intentions to contend with the United States to emerge as the 'Second Pole' in global power-play.

In quick succession, the United States reinforced the US-India Global Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, reinforced its Alliance linkages with South Korea and Japan and revived The QUAD, extricated itself from Afghanistan and established AUKUS--bringing into existence a Trilateral of three nuclear powered submarines nations.

In tandem, other security linkages that stand reinforced are the Japan-India Strategic Partnership, India-Australia Strategic Partnership, United States outreach to Vietnam and Japan engaged in military capacity buildup of the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Significantly, as asserted by me in an analysis in Eurasia Review, was the prospects of ASEAN Redundancy spurred by Indo Pacific security and geopolitical churning. ASEAN an economic grouping has shirked from condemnation of Communist China even when Beijing forcibly annexed Island Territories in South China Sea of Vietnam and Philippines--both ASEAN Nations.

Some may like to argue that this is debatable but it is my firm belief that Indo Pacific with increasing military belligerence of Communist China would not offer geopolitical space for 'Fence Sitters' or proponents of 'Strategic Non-Alignment'.

Concluding, it needs to be reminded that history is witness to the fact that whenever Revisionist Powers like Communist China emerge on the global stage the natural and logical culmination is the emergence of 'Security Coalitions'  which with increased military escalation graduate to 'Military Alliances'.

INDO PACIFIC ASIA 2021 NOTICEABLY HEAVILY POLARIZED AGAINST COMMUNIST CHINA

 Communist China which till a couple of years back was being perceived as a Superpower emerging in contention with the United States, has due to its mistakenly self-perceived empowerment down-slided in 2021 virtually to the designation of  Indo Pacific's notorious 'Regional Destabiliser'.

Indo Pacific in 2021 stands highly polarized against Communist China indulging in unprovoked aggression on its peripheries, both on land-borders and on maritime expanses of Indo Pacific.

Communist China has been in a high state of military confrontation and military clashes with India on the Himalayan Heights that border China Occupied Tibet, The intense China-India military confrontation can be gauged from over 50,000 Indian Army Armored Formations and Mechanized Forces confronting Communist China's military buildup.

Japan, the other Major Asian Power is being constantly politically and militarily coerced Communist China intruding into Senkaku Islands maritime space and Chinese submarines prowling around in Sea of Japan and Japan's Inland Sea.

South Korea which till lately was in an appeasement mode towards Beijing has now changed gears recognizing that the security environment of the Korean Peninsula  stands disturbed with Communist China itching for a military showdown with the United States in the South China Sea.

In end-2021, Taiwan faces the grim prospects of  Communist China undertaking a military invasion to annex Taiwan to Communist China rule mindless of  consequences of a military showdown with United States & Allies.

The volatility in South China Sea is well publicized and recorded of Communist China declaring its sovereignty over the entire maritime expanse. Vietnam and the Philippines have been victims of Communist Chinese military aggression.

ASEAN Nations like Indonesia and Malaysia, earlier as 'fence-sitters' on Chinese aggression have lately tasted Communist Chinese aggressive intrusions into their territorial waters.

Globally, Communist China seems set on challenging the United States & The West not only in Indo Pacific more pointedly, but also distantly in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Geopolitical forces at play and sound strategic logic seems to have deserted Communist China's much touted strategic vision. It seems that heady with its exponential military power buildup of last two decades when United Sates was distracted by Iraq and Afghanistan, Beijing's 21st Century Emperor has reckoned that he can push China's military adventurism envelope further with an unsure United States still deciding the level of S checkmating of China.

Concluding, it needs to be pointed out that Communist China's gamble against United States and confrontations with India, Japan and Australia is already reaping an early harvest in form of QUAD & AUKUS.

The intensified trend of anti--Communist China security groupings above accompanied by other Indo Pacific Nations already in a state of marked polarization against Communist China as a result of China-generated multiple flash-points  bodes ill for Indo Pacific security and stability.

COMMUNIST CHINA'S AGGRESSIVE PROPENSITIES 2021 FACES PUSH-BACK BY UNITED STATES-LED SECURITY GROUPINGS QUAD AND AUKUS

The year 2021 will go down in history as the 'Tipping Point' when in response to Communist China's unrestrained aggressive propensities in the Indo Pacific, the 'Arc of Democracies' led by United States decisively  engaged themselves in a geopolitical  & strategic nuclear push-back against Beijing's predatory 'China Threat' menacing the Indo Pacific.

The geopolitical push-back against Beijing stands exemplified by two  Summit Meets of The QUAD leaders in 2021 and  the announcement of the formation of AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) Trilateral which has strategic nuclear overtones in the maritime domain. 

In 2021, reflecting the resolve of Indo Pacific Democracies push-back against Communist China, two Summit Meets of US President Joe Biden, Japanese PM Suga, Australian PM Scott Morrison and Indian PM Narendra Modi took place. The first meet was a 'Virtual Meet' in March 2021 and the second 'In Person' Summit Meet of The QUAD leaders took place in Washington in September last week.

The latter was preceded by the game changing announcement by United States of the formation of the AUKUS Trilateral which plans to equip Australia with six nuclear-power submarines over the next ten years by United States and UK , which already have nuclear submarines in their Navies. 

 Communist China's predatory aggressiveness in the Western Pacific and intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean rests mainly on the powerful Chinese PLA Navy which now has nuclear attack submarines, aircraft carriers and a large fleet of Destroyers and Frigates.

The AUKUS primarily will focus expectedly on imposing deterrence on China's use of unrestrained naval might in the Indo Pacific.

The global strategic community has since been engrossed in debating the sudden announcement of AUKUS existence and its relationship with the QUAD Security Dialogue.

Analytically, there should be no confusion on the intent and roles of QUAD Security Initiative and the AUKUS. The QUAD is a quadrilateral geopolitical security-oriented grouping comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India. QUAD is not a military alliance and therefore has potential of expansion. 

AUKUS for all realistic purposes is a Indo Pacific-centric military alliance comprising United States, UK and Australia concentrating in positioning a 'Trinity of Nuclear Submarines' in Indo Pacific to off-set China's naval predatory moves. Nuclear submarines with long distance endurance and silent operations will impose deterrence at China's littoral doorsteps and also challenge its intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean.

China has reacted violently to both these ominous developments of QUAD and AUKUS set in motion in the interests of safeguarding  Indo Pacific  security against the China Treat.

Concluding, one needs to stress that whatever diplomatic reasons are advanced by not specifically mentioning Communist China as the target of the QUAD and AUKUS, what is starkly evident is that both QUAD and AUKUS stand configured to confront the China Threat.

Should Communist China still persist in its 'Revisionist Impulses' in the Indo Pacific, as I have written elsewhere, these initial steps of 'Deterrence Imposition' on China's aggressiveness  by US-led Arc of Democracies could graduate into full-fledged 'China Containment Strategies'.

AUSTRALIA-INDIA COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP 2021 POSITIONED IN QUAD CONSTRUCT

Indo Pacific Security construct in 2021 stands distinctly defined by the QUAD Security Initiative or better termed as QUAD Coalition comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India.

Needless to reiterate that the strategic impulses that led to a revival of the QUAD in 2017 after lying dormant since 2007 was China's switch from 'Soft Power' strategies to exercise of 'Hard Power' military muscle options in conflictual flash-points across the Indo Pacific from India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet to the 'Seas'of the Western Pacific. 

Australia though lying distant from these conflictual areas did not escape China's disruptive strategic gaze for multiple reasons ranging from Australia's concerns on China's strategic intrusiveness into the South Pacific, Australia's concerns on China's South China Sea depredations and surfacing of China-instigated trade issues arising from Australia's geopolitical stances siding with United States and Japan.

In 2021, unlike in the past, when there were more strategic divergences between Australia and India, it has been observed that today there are more strategic convergences between Australia and India.

Australia and India strategic convergences for nearly a decade started evolving on the growing China Threat figuring commonly in both countries' Threat Perceptions.

In 2020, Australia and India finally decided to give concrete shape to their strategic convergences by signing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement which was to be the blueprint of enhanced security, defence and economic cooperation.

The significance of the Australia-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership lies not only in the bilateral context but more significantly in the wider context of the Indo Pacific Security construct of which the centerpiece now is the QUAD Coalition.

Till now, India had Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships in the QUAD Coalition only with the United States and Japan. With the same being signed with Australia now. India now is strategically intertwined with all the QUAD Coalition partners.

Besides the strategic and security advantages that flow in with this institutionalized Strategic Partnership, Australia and India stand to gain  significantly in economic cooperation, especially uranium supplies. Defence technology exchanges is another area earmarked for prioritization including Space Technologies.

Concluding, it needs to be significantly noted that with the intensification of security cooperation among the QUAD Coalition partners, China stands ruffled and seriously concerned to the point that in in official public assertions China is issuing veiled threats on QUAD's longevity.

 

INDIA AND THE PHILIPPINES ENHANCE SECURITY COOPERATION 2021 IN INDO PACIFIC SECURITY CONSTRUCT

 India took a significant leap in March 2021 when it decided to enhance security cooperation with The Philippines whose archipelago strategic configuration covers virtually the entire Eastern flank of the South China Sea and which is being subjected to constant maritime aggression by Beijing's Communist China Regime.

The Philippines has had a salience all along in the United States security architecture for the Western Pacific. Except for a short period when the Philippines succumbed to Chinese overtures, United States Navy had a major naval base at Subic Bay and a sizable US Air Force presence at Clarkes Air Base.

The Philippines after a brief dalliance with Communist China soon realized that China became only more aggressive in terms of occupation of Philippines islands/shoals. Communist China was encouraged to do so because it realized that during this period the Philippines had temporarily lost United States strategic gaze.

India's according a centrality to ASEAN Nations and India's increasing security cooperation with ASEAN Nations like Vietnam , Indonesia and Singapore encouraged the Philippines to look to India for security cooperation.

Also, both India and the Philippines had a shared history of territorial disputes with Communist China and China's propensity to settle territorial disputes by resort to unprovoke use of Chinese military force.

India and the Philippines signed a Government-to-Government Deal in March 2021 under which India agreed to supply the Philippines with five batteries of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles for its coastal defence.

In addition, Philippines and India agreed to enhance security cooperation in various other fields, especially in terms of Naval Cooperation, Coast Guard Cooperation, joint training and access to more Indian Defence equipment purchases.

India' ties with Philippines stood relegated to the backwaters until 2014. PM Narendra Modi was the first Indian PM to visit the Philippines in 32 years.

Giving concrete shape to India's 'Look East Policy' with substantive security-oriented contours as 'Act East Policy'. with particular reference to South East Asia countries palpably under threat by China, the Modi Government has given impetus to enhance security ties with the Philippines. 

The strategic significance of enhanced security cooperation would have not been lost on Beijing's Communist China regime.

The Philippines acquisition of Indian BRAHMOS Cruise Missile with a range of 290 km would impart some degree of conventional deterrence against China's persistent maritime encroachments against the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Finally, in the overall construct of Indo Pacific Security this significant enhancement of security cooperation with yet another strategically significant ASEAN Nation would add to India's image as being a serious   of Regional Nett Security.