COMMUNIST CHINA'S AGGRESSIVE PROPENSITIES 2021 FACES PUSH-BACK BY UNITED STATES-LED SECURITY GROUPINGS QUAD AND AUKUS

The year 2021 will go down in history as the 'Tipping Point' when in response to Communist China's unrestrained aggressive propensities in the Indo Pacific, the 'Arc of Democracies' led by United States decisively  engaged themselves in a geopolitical  & strategic nuclear push-back against Beijing's predatory 'China Threat' menacing the Indo Pacific.

The geopolitical push-back against Beijing stands exemplified by two  Summit Meets of The QUAD leaders in 2021 and  the announcement of the formation of AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) Trilateral which has strategic nuclear overtones in the maritime domain. 

In 2021, reflecting the resolve of Indo Pacific Democracies push-back against Communist China, two Summit Meets of US President Joe Biden, Japanese PM Suga, Australian PM Scott Morrison and Indian PM Narendra Modi took place. The first meet was a 'Virtual Meet' in March 2021 and the second 'In Person' Summit Meet of The QUAD leaders took place in Washington in September last week.

The latter was preceded by the game changing announcement by United States of the formation of the AUKUS Trilateral which plans to equip Australia with six nuclear-power submarines over the next ten years by United States and UK , which already have nuclear submarines in their Navies. 

 Communist China's predatory aggressiveness in the Western Pacific and intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean rests mainly on the powerful Chinese PLA Navy which now has nuclear attack submarines, aircraft carriers and a large fleet of Destroyers and Frigates.

The AUKUS primarily will focus expectedly on imposing deterrence on China's use of unrestrained naval might in the Indo Pacific.

The global strategic community has since been engrossed in debating the sudden announcement of AUKUS existence and its relationship with the QUAD Security Dialogue.

Analytically, there should be no confusion on the intent and roles of QUAD Security Initiative and the AUKUS. The QUAD is a quadrilateral geopolitical security-oriented grouping comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India. QUAD is not a military alliance and therefore has potential of expansion. 

AUKUS for all realistic purposes is a Indo Pacific-centric military alliance comprising United States, UK and Australia concentrating in positioning a 'Trinity of Nuclear Submarines' in Indo Pacific to off-set China's naval predatory moves. Nuclear submarines with long distance endurance and silent operations will impose deterrence at China's littoral doorsteps and also challenge its intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean.

China has reacted violently to both these ominous developments of QUAD and AUKUS set in motion in the interests of safeguarding  Indo Pacific  security against the China Treat.

Concluding, one needs to stress that whatever diplomatic reasons are advanced by not specifically mentioning Communist China as the target of the QUAD and AUKUS, what is starkly evident is that both QUAD and AUKUS stand configured to confront the China Threat.

Should Communist China still persist in its 'Revisionist Impulses' in the Indo Pacific, as I have written elsewhere, these initial steps of 'Deterrence Imposition' on China's aggressiveness  by US-led Arc of Democracies could graduate into full-fledged 'China Containment Strategies'.

AUSTRALIA-INDIA COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP 2021 POSITIONED IN QUAD CONSTRUCT

Indo Pacific Security construct in 2021 stands distinctly defined by the QUAD Security Initiative or better termed as QUAD Coalition comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India.

Needless to reiterate that the strategic impulses that led to a revival of the QUAD in 2017 after lying dormant since 2007 was China's switch from 'Soft Power' strategies to exercise of 'Hard Power' military muscle options in conflictual flash-points across the Indo Pacific from India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet to the 'Seas'of the Western Pacific. 

Australia though lying distant from these conflictual areas did not escape China's disruptive strategic gaze for multiple reasons ranging from Australia's concerns on China's strategic intrusiveness into the South Pacific, Australia's concerns on China's South China Sea depredations and surfacing of China-instigated trade issues arising from Australia's geopolitical stances siding with United States and Japan.

In 2021, unlike in the past, when there were more strategic divergences between Australia and India, it has been observed that today there are more strategic convergences between Australia and India.

Australia and India strategic convergences for nearly a decade started evolving on the growing China Threat figuring commonly in both countries' Threat Perceptions.

In 2020, Australia and India finally decided to give concrete shape to their strategic convergences by signing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement which was to be the blueprint of enhanced security, defence and economic cooperation.

The significance of the Australia-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership lies not only in the bilateral context but more significantly in the wider context of the Indo Pacific Security construct of which the centerpiece now is the QUAD Coalition.

Till now, India had Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships in the QUAD Coalition only with the United States and Japan. With the same being signed with Australia now. India now is strategically intertwined with all the QUAD Coalition partners.

Besides the strategic and security advantages that flow in with this institutionalized Strategic Partnership, Australia and India stand to gain  significantly in economic cooperation, especially uranium supplies. Defence technology exchanges is another area earmarked for prioritization including Space Technologies.

Concluding, it needs to be significantly noted that with the intensification of security cooperation among the QUAD Coalition partners, China stands ruffled and seriously concerned to the point that in in official public assertions China is issuing veiled threats on QUAD's longevity.

 

INDIA AND THE PHILIPPINES ENHANCE SECURITY COOPERATION 2021 IN INDO PACIFIC SECURITY CONSTRUCT

 India took a significant leap in March 2021 when it decided to enhance security cooperation with The Philippines whose archipelago strategic configuration covers virtually the entire Eastern flank of the South China Sea and which is being subjected to constant maritime aggression by Beijing's Communist China Regime.

The Philippines has had a salience all along in the United States security architecture for the Western Pacific. Except for a short period when the Philippines succumbed to Chinese overtures, United States Navy had a major naval base at Subic Bay and a sizable US Air Force presence at Clarkes Air Base.

The Philippines after a brief dalliance with Communist China soon realized that China became only more aggressive in terms of occupation of Philippines islands/shoals. Communist China was encouraged to do so because it realized that during this period the Philippines had temporarily lost United States strategic gaze.

India's according a centrality to ASEAN Nations and India's increasing security cooperation with ASEAN Nations like Vietnam , Indonesia and Singapore encouraged the Philippines to look to India for security cooperation.

Also, both India and the Philippines had a shared history of territorial disputes with Communist China and China's propensity to settle territorial disputes by resort to unprovoke use of Chinese military force.

India and the Philippines signed a Government-to-Government Deal in March 2021 under which India agreed to supply the Philippines with five batteries of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles for its coastal defence.

In addition, Philippines and India agreed to enhance security cooperation in various other fields, especially in terms of Naval Cooperation, Coast Guard Cooperation, joint training and access to more Indian Defence equipment purchases.

India' ties with Philippines stood relegated to the backwaters until 2014. PM Narendra Modi was the first Indian PM to visit the Philippines in 32 years.

Giving concrete shape to India's 'Look East Policy' with substantive security-oriented contours as 'Act East Policy'. with particular reference to South East Asia countries palpably under threat by China, the Modi Government has given impetus to enhance security ties with the Philippines. 

The strategic significance of enhanced security cooperation would have not been lost on Beijing's Communist China regime.

The Philippines acquisition of Indian BRAHMOS Cruise Missile with a range of 290 km would impart some degree of conventional deterrence against China's persistent maritime encroachments against the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Finally, in the overall construct of Indo Pacific Security this significant enhancement of security cooperation with yet another strategically significant ASEAN Nation would add to India's image as being a serious   of Regional Nett Security. 

UNITED STATES ABANDONS "WESTERN OUTPOST" OF INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN MID-AUGUST 2021

 The United States as the prime mover of Indo Pacific Security and The QUAD abandoned Afghanistan on August 15 2020 for the second time in over two decades and thereby abandoning the "Western Oupost" of Indo Pacific Security, so critical as a 'Strategic Pressure Point' against China's restive Western Regions.

The significance of Afghanistan for Indo Pacific Security was analysed by me in my Blogpost of June28 2020 titled "Afghanistan as Indo Pacific Security "Wetsern Outpost".

In my writings elsewhere, I have termed American abandonment of Afghanistan on August 15 2020 as United States "Munich Moment"--- capitualting to geopolitical pressures of the China-Pakistan-Russia Trilateral ---all three having strong convergences to generate a US-Exit from Afghanistan.

Afghanistan with US Military Forces embedded in this vital geostrategic Nation offered significant geopolitical and strategic advatages both to United States national security and also to Indo Pacific Security.

In relation to the China Threat which has been the catalyst for coalescing of Major Powers  to evolve groupings like The QUAD , Afghanistan provided a strong and potent "Strategic Prssure Point" against China's restive and vulnerable Western Regions.

Afghanistan in safe military protection of the United States offered a 'Firm Base' for the United States to influence events in Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia.

The United States by abandoning Afghanistan to the China-Pakistan-Russia Trilateral has thereby lost strong leverages against China mainly and so also Russia.  The UnitedStates also thereby loses leverages against Pakistan in relation to Pakistan once again facilitating creation of the Islamic Hub of Global Terrorism in Afghan Taliban rule Afghanistan.

At this moment while Aghanistan stands taken over by the Afgha Taliban by US-default for the second time, reports and visuals emanating from Afghanistan portend that Afghanistan is headed for another Civil War.

Civil War once again breaking out in Afghanistan may in its wake prompt the United States for no better alternative than for a third US Military Intervention.

Was it geopolitically and strategically wise therefore for "US Military Abandonment of Afghanistan 2.0" ?

SOUTH KOREA AS A WESTERN PACIFIC NATION CAN ILL-AFFORD TO BE ON WRONG SIDE OF INDO PACIFIC SECURITY 2021

 Prevailing geopolitical realities in Western Pacific do not equip South Korea to stand on wrong side of history of Indo Pacific Security 2021 given its historical record of a 'Front Line State' against Communist China's expansionist designs right since Korean War of 1950s and Communist China currently again displaying the same propensity with greater intensity.

Wsetern Pacific geopolitical environment in 2021 as a crucial sub-text of overall Indo Pacific Security construct  currently presents a disturbing picture of Communist China establishing 'Full Spectrum dominance over South China Sea maritime expanse and air-space above it.

Needless to state that South China Sea is as vital for South Korea as it is vital for Japan in terms of sustaining the economies of both these Western Pacific 'economic power houses' of the Free World. The very survival of Japan and South Korea as Emerging Powers is dependeant on a 'Free & Open Indo Pacific' .

Japan is fully conscious and for decades has taken cognizance of the China Threat to Western Pacific so arising. Japan not only continues to be an enduring Ally since 1945 of the United States configured security architecture for the region in bilateral terms but also in multilateral terms as evident from its pivotal role in the QUAD comprising United States, Japan, India and Australia.

South Korea while equally continuing bilaterally as a US Ally in 2021, however, shirks or fights shy from any United States security initiatives for a multilateral security framework for Western Pacific comprising United States, Japan and South Korea.

South Korea notably gets inhibited in this direction for only one reason and that is because of Japan against which South Korea still bears a grudge of 'historical wrongs' of Japanese colonial role over South Korea from 1910-45 and allegations of use of South Korean 'comfort women' during Second World War.

Historically, by the same token, how has South Korea given a geopolitical go-by to Communist China which brutally overun South Korea in 1950 all the way to Pusan at the Southern tip of the Korean Peninsula.

Yet in the last decade or so South Korea's political leaders were cosying upto Communist China lured by Beijing's inducements of South Korean access to the vast Chinese market.

South Korea was recsued from a certain ChineseCommunist rule if United States had not made a massive and decisivemilitary intervention on the Korean Penisula with Japan unreservedly providing the military 'Firm Base' for US Armed Forces deployed to rescue South Korea.

Having been Military, Naval & AirAttache accredited to South Korea while posted in Tojyo, Japan and having had the privilege of witnesing the economic and military resurgence of South Korea in early 1980s and first hand interaction with South Korean Armed Forces including successive US-ROK TEAM SPIRIT Exercises then conducted on massive scale, it becomes unfathomable for me to witness South Korea riding in 'two geopolitcal boats'. Can South Korea strategically afford it in 2021 especially ?

To put it bluntly as an ardent well-wisher of both South Korea and Japan my blunt question to South Korean political leaders and policy establishment is that does South Korea really feel assured that in the event of Communist China blocking South China Sea to strangle Japan and prompt US Militaryy exit from Western Pacific. would Communist China makean honourable exception for South Korea in that event?

Therein lies the answer for South Korea to reset its policies on Communist China. South Korea needs to face the stark reality that it is Communist China that has aided North Korea to equip itself with Nuclear Weapons and delivery-means of IR BallisticMissiles endangering not only South Korean security but also security of the Indo Pacific as a region.

Before rounding off on the subject no one better than South Korea's first Militaryy ruler can be quoted . General Park who realised this truism fully and opted for masive Japanese economic investmens for South Korea's economic reconsruction much against domestic opposition with perceived wrongs against Japan still afresh. 

South Korea's economic resurgence took place with Japnese investments and US security umbrella---- is a historical fact that  South Korea can ill afford.

In the unfolding geopolitical threatening scenarios scripted by Communist China evident in 2021, South Korea can ill-afford to be on the wrong side of history, It must stand unitedly tall with United Sttes and Japan aginst the China Threat. 

The future of Wesyern Pacific security against the China Threat lies intertwined in united responses by UnitedStates, Japan and notably South Korea