FORMER UNITED STATES PRESIDENT TRUMP'S LEGACY TO INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Former US President Trump has in my assessment left a formidable legacy to follow on Indo Pacific Security in terms of checkmating China's unrestrained military aggresiveness rampage across the vast expanse of the Indo Pacific Region trampling on the sovereignty of its weaker ASEAN neigbours, militraily coercing Japan and Taiwan and presently engaged in headlong military confrontation with Sub-Continental sized India, a vitrual equal, in the sensitive Eastern Ladakh region bordering China Occupied Tibet.

Setting aside United States domestic political opinions of former President Trump, what needs to be strategically and objectively viewed is that former President Trump contributed greatly to the overall security template of the Indo Pacific. This centered prmarily on shedding the 'China Hedging' strategies and 'Risk Aversion' policiess of past US Presidents when it came to China's growing military assertiveness to the extent of throwing the military gauntlet at the United States as evidenced in South China Sea and against Taiwan.

Resorting to the strategy of 'War by Other Means' President Trump engaged China in a US-China Trade War and hurting China where it hurts most. The Chinese economy is noticeably on a slow-down stage and likely to cause domestic political problems. It did distract China from some of its expansionism instincts.

In the South China Sea President Trump ordered intensification of US Navy FONOPs operations besides motivating Japanese  Navy also to participate in naval patrols. The United States seems to have sensitised major European Nations also to the China Threat in the Indo Pacific resluting in France and  UK declaring their intentions to send French Navy and Royal Navy on South China Sea missions.

The QUAD Maritime Iitiative led by the UnitedStates and comprising Japan, Australia and India was put in a resurgent mode by President Trump after it had gone into a slumber since 2006 or so. Navies of the QUAD Nations now exrecise regularly both in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. QUAD's significance has not been lost on China which is seriously concerned as it has the potential to checkmate China's maritime ambitions of expansion.

President Trump's most significant contribution to Indo Pacific security has been to draw-in India into a more active  and substantial US-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. It cannot be overlooked that with India on its side theUS-led informal Coalition of Democracies gets that much more weightier and as a dampner and game-changing counterweight to China's militarism. To that end, the security profile of the Coalition of Democracies against the China Threat gets that much more enhanced.

Concluding, it needs to be emphasised and over-emphasised that the China Threat is a potent and live threat to Indo Pacific Security and that the United States incoming President Joe Biden also needs to remain equally alive to the strategic reality that the China Threat is a long term threat primarily targetted at the United States and it does not matter to China as to which political dispensation US Presidents follow in the coming decades.

 

SOUTH CHINA SEA WITNESSES GREATER EUROPEAN NAVIES INVOLVEMENT

South China Sea so far did not engage much attention of European Nations Navies in terms of naval patrols to indicate and establish their presence signalling strategic interest in this crucial maritime expanse.

European apathy in not giving due strategic attention to the South China Sea in their strategic calculus presumably arose from  a combination of three or four factors.

South China Sea till middle of last decade had not assumed the military turbulence that characterises it in 2020 as a result of China's unbridled military aggressiveness and brinkmanship to establish China's sovereignty and dominance over the entire South China Sea.

European Nations found assurance in the belief in past years that the United States military power and might would be able to checkmate China's military adventurism in South China Sea.

European Nations economies were inextricably tied up with their China-Trade and European Nations were loathe to ruffle China by increasing their Naval Patrols in Indian Ocean and particularly extending to South China Sea.

However, in 2020, all the European Nations presumptions on South China Sea security and stability stand proved grievously wrong by China.

China stood emboldened by American hesitation in not resorting to full scale deterrence against China in its predatory forays and aggression South China Sea till US President Trump came along and started confronting China both in South China Sea and China's unilateral exploitation of its trade relations with United States.

China also stood emboldened in defying United States on the South China Sea conscious of the fact that European Nations stood apathetically unresponsive to the growing turbulence in South China Sea.

Resultantly, what developed was that China carried an exponential expansion of a 'blue water' Chinese Navy with its eyes not only on South China Sea but also on Indian Ocean and as afar as the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. It also began military occupation of South China Sea islands belonging to Vietnam and Philippines

While European Nations Navies like those of France and Britain maintained their presence in the Indian Ocean but they had not extended their naval presence to the South China Sea.

As 2020 drew to a close European Nations rattled by China's unrestrained belligerence not only in South China Sea and Indian Ocean but also with Chinese Navy Bases in Gwadur in Pakistan and in Djibouti on the Red Sea coupled with  Chinese interference in geopolitics of Levant & Eastern Mediterranean woke up belatedly to the reality that China was moving into European traditional areas of influence.

Emerging from the above realisations and conscious of the fact that China was no longer a responsible stakeholder in global security and stability, European Nations have recently decided that French, British an Navies would now be sending their Navy warships on patrols to South China Sea.

South East Asian nations particularly Vietnam and Philippines would feel encouraged that not only the United States, Japan, India and Australia stand by them on the South China Sea against Chinese aggression but also that France, Germany and Britain have signalled to China that it is high time that China behaves like a responsible nation and desist from its disruptive strategies especially against smaller neighbours.

 

 

 

UNITED STATES-INDIA STRAEGIC PARTNERSHIP TOUCHES NEW HEIGHTS 2020

The China Threat factor plaguing the security and stability of Indo Pacific Asia's vast landmass and maritime expanses has galvanised United States and India to touch new heights in 2020 in the two decades old US-India Strategic Partnership which evolved at the turn of the 21st Century.

The US-India Strategic Partnership in 2020 without the trappings of a formal military alliance and institutional mechanisms has yet all the mechanisms in the form of a series of " Defence Agreements" signed by both countries enabling and facilitating a wide spectrum of military cooperation and coordination between United States and India and their Armed Forces.

These Defence Agreements range from BECA (Basic Exchange& Cooperation Agreement); LEMOA ( Logistics Exchange Memorandum Agreement); to COMCASA (Communications Compatibility & Security Agreement) encompassing sharing of Geospatial Intelligence for precision targeting of Indian, use of each others logistics bases and facilities and facilitate United States to provide encrypted communications equipment.

Overarching the above are the Annual 2+2 Meets of the Foreign and Defence Ministers Dialogue for mutual discussion on security issues and defence exchanges cooperation. The Third Annual Dialogue is scheduled for the next week in New Delhi.

This year's Dialogue Meet will be significant as it comes against the backdrop of China's military clashes with India in Eastern Ladakh, South China Sea escalation by China and China's threatening and aggressive provocations against Taiwan.

Significantly, QUAD Initiative hat represents most intensely the new strategic heights that India has touched in US-India Strategic Partnership because it transcends the bilateral US-India security cooperation and extends to Multilateral Naval Cooperation between India and United States Indo Pacific Allies comprising Japan and Australia.

Concluding, suffice it to state, that in view of the burgeoning China Threat to Indo Pacific Security and Stability, United States and India have drawn closer to forge institutional mechanisms for greater coordination of their strategic convergences posed by China's recent military expansionist impulses.

In terms of perspectives it can be asserted that viewing the QUAD Initiative as a trend-setting indicator that binds India to the United States, Japan and Australia in 2020 inherently carries promises of the emergence of an "Asian NATO' with China intent on military aggrandisement regardless of military consequences which could rebound on its strategic waywardness.

 

 

 

JAPAN'S STRAEGIC CALCULUS IN SOUTH EAST ASIA PRIORITISES VIETNAM AND INDONESIA

South East Asia has traditionally figured high in Japan's strategic calculus for decades due to its geostrategic location astride the South China Sea through which pass Japan's lifelines of economic survival---the Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) which traverse the South China Sea.

Not surprisingly therefore that the new Japanese Prime Minister Suga's first maiden foreign policy visit starts with visits to two major countries of South  East Asia----Vietnam and Indonesia.

Vietnam and Indonesia by virtue of their geographical location and spread virtually dominate large swathes of the South China Sea and more significantly when the South China Sea takes an Eastward turn towards Singapore and Straits of Malacca.

Vietnam has been for long subjected to China's military aggression and occupation of Vietnamese Islands in South China Sea, moreso, after Chinese President Xi Jinping assumed power in China. China continues relentlessly with its political and military coercion of Vietnam and military confrontation with Vietnam in South China Sea.

Indonesia till recently was a mute spectator of China's predatory aggression in South China Sea against the Philippines and Vietnam. In recent months China commenced repetition of its predatory moves in South China Sea against Indonesia also. Startled by China's menacing moves into maritime areas of Indonesia, the nation has been forced to approach the United Nations on the threat from China. Indonesia is the largest country in South East Asia with sizeable Armed Forces.

Comparatively, Japan's foreign policy prime focus in South East Asia has been on Vietnam even when United States had not established full diplomatic relations with Vietnam.

Japan-Vietnam relations in 2020 can be stated as being comprehensive encompassing all domains from political, economic and military.

Vietnam's centrality in Japan's South East Asian policies stand that much more amplified with the China Threat manifesting itself menacingly in South China Sea against Vietnam and the China Threat to Japanese Senkaku Islands in East China Sea. Strong strategic convergences exist today between Japan and Vietnam.

Besides sizeable Japanese economic investments in Vietnam there has been a growing trend in Japan-Vietnam security cooperation in terms of Japan aiding Vietnam's military -capacity building to face China Threat. in South China Sea. Japanese Navy on South China Sea naval patrols with US Navy call on Vietnamese Navy major naval base at Cam Ranh Bay.

Japanese PM Suga's forthcoming visit to Vietnam besides signalling Japan's intentions to strategically invest in Vietnam in relation to China Threat to Japan's SLOCs is likely to focus heavily on enhanced  security cooperation in backroom discussions.

Indonesia is also critical for Japan's security for the same reasons as outlined above. Even though Indonesia has yet to face the full fury of the China Threat like Vietnam, recent events may prompt Indonesia to be more open and receptive to security initiatives with Japan and the United States.

One can therefore hope that Japanese Prime Minister Suga's visits to Japan and Indonesia will be productive visits especially in relation to addressing mutual security concerns.

In Conclusion, it can be asserted that South East Asia Region  as a whole figures strongly in strategic convergences of United States and Japan in relation to China Threat. Both the United States and Japan put together have the Will and Capacity to provide South East Asia an existential counterweight against the China Threat.

 

VIETNAM MODEL OF CHECKMATING CHINA DESIRABLE FOR ASEAN STRATEGIC FORMULATIONS

Vietnam significantly stands out as one ASEAN Nation which historically and contemporaneously has withstood and checkmated Chinese aggression against its sovereignty and territorial integrity despite China's preponderant superiorities in power and military potential.

In the last half a century spanning  both the 20th and 21st Century, Vietnam first repulsed and inflicted heavy casualties on Chinese Regular Military Formations which attacked Vietnam on its Northern Borders with Communist China.

In the last two decades China has persistently indulged in maritime aggression against Vietnam in South China Sea but with limited success despite the fact that till lately the United States, Western European Major Powers and Asian Major Powers like Japan and India were still not actively alive to China's military aggression in South China Sea.

ASEAN Nations stood significantly divided and shirked from outright condemnation of China for its military aggression, military adventurism and coercion against ASEAN Nations like Vietnam and the Philippines.

Major ASEAN Nations like Indonesia and Malaysia were notable "Fence Sitters" and shirked from forthright condemnation of China till lately when China blatantly intruded aggressively in their maritime domains too. Both have approached the United Nations for intervention.

ASEAN Nations as a regional grouping need to recognise that the United Nations is toothless when it comes to strong actions against China.

Further, ASEAN Nations need to recognise that China in its current mood of military expansionism on its peripheries both on land and on seas is defiant of the United Nations and all International Conventions governing the South China Sea.

So what options are available to ASEAN Nations to checkmate China from wanton aggression in the South China Sea?

ASEAN Nations need to adopt the 'Vietnam Model' as part of its regional strategy of checkmating China before it further endangers security and stability of South East Asia.

Firstly, ASEAN needs to recognise the stark reality that Vietnam recognised decades back that China is not a 'Benign Stakeholder' in ASEAN security and stability. China as a 'Revisionist Power' is overall a 'Disruptionist Power' bent on converting South East Asia and its maritime domains as its strategic backyard under Chinese hegemony.

ASEAN Nations must next recognise that China is not amenable to any peaceful dialogue processes or conflict resolution mechanisms. Vietnam learnt this reality decades back and formulated its China-strategy accordingly.

Vietnam even when US and Western Nations had not got involved actively in checkmating China actively in South China Sea managed and faced China with traditional determined robustness of national character in not submitting tamely to Chinese aggression. Vietnam fought back tenaciously with the resources that it had.

United States . France, UK , Australia, Japan and India impressed with Vietnam's determined face-off against China were drawn to Vietnam's side for reasons of not only global geopolitics but also that Vietnam was the nucleus around which any  Indo Pacific security template could be based.

Vietnam also recognised in the last decade or so that an overbearing China hell-bent on military expansionism at the expense of its smaller and comparatively less powerful nations now needed an "External Strategic Ballast" to deter China.

It is with this realisation that Vietnam incrementally opened itself to the United States, Japan, India and Australia both politically and strategically.

Today Navy Ships from all of the above countries on South China Sea patrols and naval exercises stage through the strategic Vietnam Navy Base of Cam Ranh Bay.

From the above brief recount of Vietnam strategic realisations  emerge lessons for the ASEAN Nations  Group as a whole to craft their China-Strategy, namely:

• ASEAN Nations need a 'United Regional Strategy' to deter China from further predatory adventurism against ASEAN  members sovereignty
• ASEAN as a first step recommended in an earlier Blog must operationalize Joint ASEAN Navies patrols in South China Sea.
• ASEAN Nations must put on fast-track capacity-building programmes for their Navies with special reference to submarines, ASW capabilities and Ant-Ship missiles.
• ASEAN needs to put into place a 'Joint Logistics Exchange Agreements where ASEAN Navies' ships can use each others naval logistics facilities.
• ASEAN can no longer continue to be 'ambivalent' about the 'China Threat' looming over South East Asia. No scope exists for dithering or ''Stand Alone' China Strategies by individual ASEAN Nations

Most significantly, ASEAN Nations have been left with no choice by China but to align themselves with the United States which alone can provide the 'Strategic Ballast' to deter China from DISRUPTING security and stability in the South China Sea and South East Asia as a whole.

Concluding one could leave a thought behind and that is with China once again on a wild rampage in South China Sea impacting South East Asia security, this is an opportune time once again to resurrect the 'Five Power Defence Agreement' which was operative in the 1960s of last Century as an 'ASEAN Defence Agreement'.

Vietnam as the current Chair in ASEAN may like to lead the way.