INDIA'S FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES IN A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN & VOLATILE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL WORLD ORDER POST- 2024

Global geopolitics, as 2024 fades into history and with advent of 2025, has an all-pervasive air of pronounced uncertainties and explosive volatility that will challenge the very existing fundamentals of India's foreign policy.

In fact, the global geopolitical world order will be plagued with these uncertainties and explosive volatility for the next ten years or so. Only, a cataclysmic Worl War III could be the only solution to subdue the unfolding sordid global geopolitics.

The major global uncertainties that standout sharply at end-2024 are the leadership changes in the United States, Russia and China. These leadership changes will make the global geopolitical order more polarized.

The major global explosive flashpoints that have all the potential to be incendiaries for a possible World War III range from the Russia-Ukraine War in Europe to the irreconcilable Israel-Iran War in the Middle East and the multiple "conflictual spots" between the United States and China in Indo Pacific 

Resultantly, the global geopolitical world order, as highlighted in my writings to date, is at the end of 2024, extremely polarized between the US-led Western Bloc of 'Democracy Allies' and the Rusia-China Bloc of 'Totalitarian Allies' like Iran and North Korea.

The political currents in global geopolitical 'world order' presage in end-2024 a "Global Geopolitical Disorder" with leadership changes in both highly polarized Blocs. 

The United States witnesses the re-election of President Trump with his characteristic "Unprintabilities" reinforced with his "unpredicted" absolute political majority.

Russia's President Putin by available political indicators seems to be on a "decline" due to debilitating impact of Russian Invasion of Ukraine. "Unpredictable" leadership tussle in Russia can be expected on pattern of post-USSR Disintegration.

China political future at end-2024 is "Unpredictable" under President Xi Jinping with economic decline and signs of political discontent emerging.

Collapse of Communist China will not only have a major impact on United States and Russia but moreso on India, as domestic disorder can tempt President Xi to initiate hostilities on India' Borders with China Occupied Tibet.  

Against such a geopolitical backdrop, BRICS in which Indian foreign policy has invested much capital is No Answer" as "insurance " for India's security interests as many political pundits advocate. 

Neither BRICS nor SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) are "Multipolar"in intent and composition nor a security nest for India.

Both organizations are Russia and China dominated, and both these Power have an "Unpredictable" future. 

If Indian foreign policy counts on "Multipolarity" both at geopolitical levels, that is equitability between United States, Russia and China and so-called multipolarity of organizations like SCO and BRICS, then unfolding "Geopolitical Disorder" negates these two precepts.

Concluding. stressed once again, that Idia's foreign policy cannot operate in a geopolitical vacuum. Indian foreign policy needs to cater for and be responsive to unfolding "Geopolitical Unpredictabilities".

"Multipolarity" which many sees as just another label for Non-Alignment is no longer valid in evolving "Global Disorder".

 India needs to emerge as a 'practitioner of "Realpolitik" and 'Balance of Power' to emerge as a rightful Major Power.

India's foreign policy blueprint for the next decade should reflect these two precepts, unapologetically.

CHINA-INDIA "STRATEGIC DISTRUST" OVERHANG GRAVELY RULES OUT "SUSTAINABLE THAWS"IN INTENSIFYING MILITARY CONFRONTATION

 

China's ongoing 'geopolitical and geoeconomic compulsions' impelled China in October 2024 to agree to a tactical compromise with India for disengagement of troops at two contentious points of Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh.

Indian media and strategic community labelling it as a "Thaw" in intensified China-India Military Confrontation on the China Occupied Tibet Border is an overhype and a premature conclusion.

"Strategic Distrust" of China is deeply embedded in India's National Psyche ever since unprovoked 1962 War 'imposed' by China.

"Sustainable Thaw" in China-India relations can therefore be ruled out even in long-term perspective for factors analyzed below.

China is in for a long haul of decades before it can generate "Strategic Trust" in India's National Mindsets.

The major contentious issues which can intensify China-India Military Confrontation are both China-India specific, and also unfolding global geopolitical pressures which could force India's policy moves in directions contradictory to China.

China-India contentious issues likely to unfold anytime and which could intensify and embitter China-India Military Confrontation are as follows: (1) China's unwillingness for Tibet boundary dispute settlement (2) China imposing Dalai Lama's successor on Tibetan Nation (3) China's economic downslide prompting China to resort to divert Chinese domestic public unrest by military escalation on India-China Occupied Tibet Borders.

Detailed analysis will follow in later posts but suffice it to say at present is that the common thread above that runs through all three contentious issues stated above is Tibet and its continued existence as 'China Occupied Tibet,

The Opening Chapter in my Book 'China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives'(22015) titled 'TIBET IS THE CORE ISSUE IN CHINA-INDIA MILITARY CONFRONTATION" can be referred for details on the above issues.

Tibet as a 'Buffer State,' will figure more and more as India's 'Core Security Imperative' in years to come.

Global geopolitical pressures on China having a bearing on China-India Military Confrontation and likely to force China into military escalation on its peripheries are as follows: (1) China losing global geopolitical weightage and co-related India's geopolitical rise (2) US President Trump's advent in Washington leading to greater activation of QUAD's military role and demands on India to shed its aversion to China-Containment (3) China's invasion of Taiwan resulting in US-China Armed Conflict (4) United States intensifying its pressures on China to 'Resolve China-Tibet Dispute' respecting wishes of Tibetan peoples.

The common thread that runs through the above geopolitical pressures are United States China-policy centering on China's 'Core Interests' of Tibet and Taiwan, which China has sworn to defend with military might.

India's policy moves on all of the issues outlined above will run in "Contradiction" to perceived China's national priorities and will result in a darker overhang of "Strategic Distrust" in China-India relations.

In Conclusion, the major observations that emerge are (1) "Sustainable Thaw" in China-India Military Confrontation is an unrealistic proposition (2) India resultantly cannot afford to dilute its military postures on its Northern Borders with China Occupied Tibet (3) India will be necessitated to build-up further its "Credible Conventional and Nuclear Deterrence" against China.

Therefore 'China-Hedging'. 'Risk Aversion', and policy obsession to 'Multipolarity' should not figure in India's policy armory.

 

THE CHINA-PAKISTAN AXIS HEADING TOWARDS AN INEVITABLE STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT

Global geopolitics and global geoeconomics in 2024-end are throwing up enough indicators that the "Iron Clad" China-Pakistan Axis is heading towards an 'inevitable' strategic denouement. The 'Iron Cladding' on which the China-Pakistan Axis mainly rested in terms of their joint hatred and adversarial stances towards India is "RUSTING" due to India's rise as a Major Power.

Pakistan, reflected for many years in my published Papers, was reduced by China to a 'concubinage relationship' and further reduced by China by a 'colonial vice-like grip' of Pakistan's political and economic dynamics due to Pakistan's economic insolvency.

Pakistan at large today chafes at this colonial hold of China which has ensnared Pakistan into a Chinese debt-trap quagmire. 

Deep anti-China fissures are surfacing within Pakistan, and which cannot be cemented by China's pressures on Pakistan Army to do so.

Three major indicators instantly available last week are instant pointers that strategic denouement is setting-in in the China-Pakistan Axis. These three indicators are: (1) Chinese Ambassador publicly rebuking Pakistan for failing to provide adequate security for Chinese working in Pakistan (2) China hesitating to "reschedule" Pakistan's request for repayment of loans (3) China accepting military disengagement with India in Eastern Ladakh.

Reacting to repeated killings of Chinese engineers working on projects in Pakistan, the Chinese Ambassador, unprecedently, publicly rebuked Pakistan for failure to protect Chinese lives. Unprecedently again, the Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson, publicly dismissed the Chinese Ambassador's rebuke as inappropriate and not following diplomatic norms.

Analytically, the Chinese rebuke, in implicit terms, is that of the Pakistan Army which has deployed nearly two Military Divisions worth of troops for security of Chinese working on projects from Khunjerab in the North to Gwadur on North Arabian Sea coast.

That Pakistan Army could not ensure it, itself, reflects the intense anti-China sentiments that in 2024 pervades within Pakistan.

Notably, China has always dithered on Pakistan's recurring requests to China for financial bailouts, forcing even the most ardent pro-China former Pakistan PM Imran Khan to grudgingly seek loans from US-dominated IMF. Pakistan was bailed out from critical financial crises, not by China, but by Saudi Arabia and UEA financial largesse.

This reality cannot be lost on Pakistan, perceptionally, with its consequent impact on public opinion within Pakistan.

Chinese financial assistance is likely to be further tightened as China increasingly views Pakistan's strategic utility declining in China's strategic calculus.

The China-Pakistan Axis in military terms is likely to be hugely impacted by China last week agreeing with India to disengage in military confrontation at two most contentious points of Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh. 

China may have tactically resorted to do so but in perceptional terms within Pakistan, and moreso within Pakistan Army, amounts to a Chinese climbdown recognizing India's geopolitical and geoeconomic rise.

This process, if continued by China and Pakistan, robs both Nations of their 'Dual Threat' strategy.

Addedly, Pakistan's younger generations, looking for gainful economic employment, are neither interested in Kashmir nor meaningless military confrontation with India. In concrete terms, perceptionally, alignment with China has not improved economic conditions within Pakistan, notwithstanding Chinese and Pakistan Establishment's propaganda.

Furthermore, China's diplomatic isolation on global issues and economic downslide, will induce corresponding reappraisals within Pakistan of China's 'Iron Clad' guarantees to Pakistan's stability and development.

Concluding, what needs to be stressed, without sermonizing, is that the Indian Policy Establishment should keep incessantly joining the dots and press home its advantages, tactically and strategically, by Indian policy measures, to induce within Pakistan the inevitable strategic unravelling of the China-Pakistan Axis.

CHINA'S ECONOMY ENTERS "GARBAGE TIME" PHASE: SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS.

China's economic stagnation has entered the "Garbage Time" phase--a term coined by Chinese essayist Hu Wenhui drawing an analogy from sports matches referring to final moments of the game where the end stands already decided. Significantly, it reflects deep economic despair that pervades China's domestic environment which could end up in political turmoil.

Chinese media has been abuzz with this "Garbage Time" economic barbs, directed more against Chinese President Xi Jinping's 12-year centralized mishandling of Chinese economy bypassing the Chinese Premier who traditionally set China's economic agenda. 

Chinese Communist Party has thus been nudged into taking note of the "Garbage Tine" economic barbs and issue rebuttals as a conspiracy by defeatist forces within China and abroad.

Recent Chinee economic stimulus packages by China grudgingly undertaken on orders of President Xi have failed to restore investor confidence and significant outflow of foreign capital.

My Article of July 29 titled ' China's Declining Trajectory under 12 Years of President Xi Jinping Rule: An Analysis' highlighted the geopolitical and economic impact. 

It was pointed out that any "Reverse Gears" by Chinese President was highly unlikely as major structural economic reforms inherently carry risks of political challenges to President Xi's continuance in power. 

Since July 2024, Chinese economy continues to "stagnate" giving rise to significant global and regional implications discussed briefly below,

China as Economic Superpower Myth Bursts

With Chinese economy down sliding from 12% growth rates for decades to below 5% under 12 years of President Xi's over-centralized rule, China is no longer deemed as 'Economic Superpower'.

China's economic situation further worsened   with President Xi's 'Anti Espionage Law' targeting foreign management and risk consultancy firms hastening outflow of foreign businesses.

China's Consequent Global Economic Leverage Takes a Big Hit

China for decades enjoyed great global clout in terms of global economic leverages. With economic stagnation not receding China stands hit badly.

China's 'Debt Trap' diplomacy luring weak economic countries like Maldives and Sri Lamka etc will be severely curtailed.

China's Oversized Miliatary & Internal Scurity Budgetary Spending Could be Impacted

While in the last Defence Budget China registered a 7% increase in spending but can the Chinese economy with less than 5% growth can sustain oversized Defence Budgets and for how long?

The demands on Internal Security spending are bound to grow but where is the money with the anomy stagnating?

China's Regional Belligerence Likely to be Reduced

Evidence of this can be seen with China's political and military reasonableness with India underway after four winters of intense military confrontation in Ladakh.

However, the first tentative steps by China in this direction should be viewed as "tactical and tentative" until China sustains it in the long term.

However, no evidence of reduction of Chinese belligerence against Taiwan, Philippines or in South China Sea is visible.

China Resents India's Neigborhood First Policies.

China's decreasing economic clout and India's increasing success in winning back Maldives and Sri Lanka has rattled China.

Chinese columnists' writings in Global Times betray China's deep resentment.

Global Eonomists have Opined China Itself Falling Into its Own 'Debt Trap'-- Most Significant Observation by Global Economists

Note global economists have opined that China itself could be entering into a classic 'Debt Trap' due to its production 'overcapacities', falling exports due to trade tariffs by many nations against Chinese dumping charges and US economic sanctions.

This could lead to severe domestic political turbulence in China with job cuts and rising unemployment in Chinese youth.

Concluding Observations

With China's $17 Trillion economy stagnating with no hopes of early structural transformation, China is entering a dangerous phase both domestically and globally.

China may have surpassed the Former Soviet Union in Communist rule longevity but this "Garbage Time" phase of China's economic stagnation resembles the Soviet Union's closing time of "Disintegration".

China survived the adverse impacts of Soviet Union's disintegration due to United States economic patronage. 

The United States is currently not around to bail-out China's economic stagnation and consequent 'Disintegration". The United States may now hasten it to preempt Chinese aggression against United States in Indo Pacific.

India as China's Major Asian Rival needs to tread carefully in economic and trade dealings with China, despite noted Indian economists misinformed advocacy to permit Chinese FDI in India.

The above amounts to India underwriting China's aggression against India from China Occupied Tibet.

Overall, China's myth of being a "Superpower" sounds hollow and the Balane of Power against it globally and regionally stands considerably impacted.

ISRAEL AND UNITED STATES AT WAR WITH IRAN SINCE OCTOBER 7 2023: GEOPOLITICAL & STRATEGIC REALITY CHECK

The Middle East has been turbulent ever since October 7, 2023, when Iranian Proxies Armed Militias' , Hamas and Hezbollah, besieged Israel following Hamas unprovoked diabolical attacks on Israeli citizens killing nearly 1800 Israelis.

Realistically speaking, Iran's Proxy Armed Militias, Hamas and Hezbollah, would not have dared to provoke Israel into escalated hostilities--an all-out war, but for a 'Green Light' from Iran which is the financier and supplier of military hardware of these Armed Militias.

One year down the line, a 'Strategic Reality' check is objectively possible to draw major geopolitical & strategic conclusions so emerging.

United States is at War with Iran along with Isreal

United States may not have directly attacked Iran in the last one year in tandem with Israel's relentless military offensives in Gaza and Lebanon, but the United States in terms of a strategic reality check is at war with Iran on two counts. 

Besides, sustaining Israel's offensives with its military wherewithal, the United States in both Direct Attacks by Iran on Israel, with its reinforced Armed Fooces deployments in the region, intercepted and destroyed Iranian rockets/missile targeting Israel.

In both Iranian Direct Rockets/Missiles Attacks on Israel. the United States provided a "Missile Shield" to Israel along with British Forces and Arab allies of United States.

This was an active American military involvement in Israel's war against Iran.

United States air strikes on Houthis in Yemen and on Iranian proxies in Iraq and in Syria also amount to undeclared war by United States to degrade Iran's war-waging capability against Israel.

United States seems to be holding back on sizeable military intervention against Iran till such time US Presidential Elections take place on November 5.

Russia Pivots Strategically Towards Iran: Change From Earlier Even Stance

Russia noticeably has strategically tilted fully towards Iran after abandoning its earlier "Even Stance" maintained between Iran and Mjor Arab countries.in Lebanon.

In my last Article it was highlighted that Russian PM made a hurried dash to Iran following which within hours Iran launched its Escalated Second Direct Attack on Israel. 

Russian involvement in Israel-Iran War could intensify with no cessation of Israeli strikes 

While writing, news has come out that Russia has seriously warned Israel against strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

China Apparently an Impassive Spectator

Surprisingly, China despite its 25 Years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Iran seems to be an impassive spectator on the escalating trajectory in Middle East.

China in recent past had brokered a Peace Deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia and between Hamas and PLO Fateh.

Chinese hyperactivity in brokering peace between Iran and Israel is not visible.

Escalation Dominance Rests with Israel

Israel retains 'Escalation Dominance' in the ongoing War between Iran and Israel despite two Direct Rockets/Missiles Attacks by Iran.

Israel has relentlessly pursued its offensives both against Hamas and Hezbollah with renewed vigor, notwithstanding the above.

Noticeably, Iran virtually sued for peace by declaring after its Second Direct Attack on Israel that it will not launch any more attacks on Israel unless Israel indulges on retaliatory strikes.

Israel's 'Escalation Dominance' is evident when it continues to assert that it will carry out retaliatory Strikes on Iran.

Israel's Escalation ofWar against Iran Restrained by United States Presidential Elections

Israel would have launched crippling strikes on Iran's nuclear assets and petrochemicals complexes but for restraint ordered by US President Biden so as not to adversely affect chances of a Democrats victory of Vice President Kamal Harris as President on November 5.

That restraint may not be operative after November 5, 2024. Should Trump get re-elected as US President, Iran could be in for a major escalation by United States and Israel.

Israel Succeeds in Crippling Hamas and Hezbollah Strike Capabilities Against Israel

Israel has inflicted crimpling losses on men, materiels and logistics support of Hamas in Gaza Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their strike capabilities against Israel stand degraded.

It will take Iran at least ten years to rebuild and regroup Hamas and Hezbollah into their pre-October 7 military potency.

Israel's 'Intelligece Domination' both by Tecnical Surveillance and Human Intelligence

Israeli successes in liquidating the entire top-rung of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, not only in Gaza and Lebanon but as far as the very heart of Iran, speaks volumes of Israel's 'Intelligence Domination' over Iran and its Proxies.

Israel relies heavily on an extensive ground network of 'Human Intelligence' both by Mossad and locally recruited agents.

No wonder Mossad is considered globally as "Prince Amongst Spies". It is amazing how much painstaking time and effort Mossad spends on training its operatives headed for Iran and neighboring countries.

Future Geopolitical and StrategicPerspectives: Isreal& United States Versus Iran War

Geopolitically, the Middle East will see an intense "polarization" between Unites States & Allies versus the Russia-Iran-China Trilateral.

The Middle East will witness a greater Sunni-Shia sectarian rift notwithstanding Iran's concerted bid to project itself as the 'Defender of Islam' over the heads of Saudi Arabia.

Iran will not be able to achieve its bid to emerge as the Middle East's 'Predominant Regional Power'. The Middle East polarization against Iran grows by the day.

Iran's overt Nuclear Weaponization will not add to Iran's deterrence against United States and Israel.

Ceasefire between Israel and Iran or any brokered peace deal does not even lurk over the horizon.

In Conclusion, what emerges from the above reality check is that the ongoing War is likely to escalate into a wider Middle East conflagration.