BIDEN-MODI "SUPER-SUMMIT" IN WASHINGTON JUNE 2023 POSITIONS INDIA ON ASCENDANT POWER TRAJECTORY: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA

Perceptional analysis would firmly indicate that the "Super Summit" between US President Joe Biden and PM Narendra Modi in Washington in end-June 2023 carries unprecedented historical significance in firmly positioning India on an ascendant power trajectory towards emerging as a Major Global Power.

Geopolitical churning, more specifically in the Indo Pacific in the last three years or so have neutralized any diffidence that may have held back both United States and India from capitalizing the full potential of their strategic and security interdependence in the Indo Pacific.

In June 2023, and the years leading to it, China has loomed large and heavily menacing in the threat perceptions of the United States and India. The intensification of the China Threat has nudged both United States and India to dispense with their respective diffidence's and add unprecedented weight and wider dimensions to the US-India Strategic Partnership.

The United States and India with obvious studied deliberation have studiously avoided designating the China Threat in their Joint Communique but it is obvious that the very premise that girds the US-India Strategic Partnership from its inception in 2000 has been the mounting concerns on the China Threat.

In the years in the run-up to June 2023, the constant assertion both by United States and India is their commitment to a "Free, Open and Secure Indo Pacific". Implicit in this assertion is that both United States and India are committed to secure the Indo Pacific---- obviously against China's coercion, aggression and predatory impulses.

The Biden-Modi "Super-Summit" and its major security-centric decisions even those in economic and science & technology domains, stand dissected widely in the media. It is not the intention in this post to repeat them but move on to the implications that arise for China thereof.

China has been heavily impacted by the burgeoning US-India Strategic Partership and especially by the slew of Basic Foundational Security Agreements that have been signed by both countries. These place India virtually as a Major NATO Plis Ally with access to advanced military hardware and technology transfers.

China was rattled beyond reason as evidenced by critical official observations even before PM Modi departed for the Washinton State Visit. China warned India not to become a 'US tool for containment of China'.

So, to begin the examination of implications of the major security-centric decisions of Biden-Modi Super-Summit, it is pertinent to highlight that China fears that the endgame of United States and India in coming decades is the Virtual "Containment of China".

Be that as it may, China in 2013 acutely perceives that the 'Balance of Power' in the Indo Pacific has tilted away from China's favor. The strengthening of the QUAD, the AUKUS Accords, and the return of the Philippines to the US-led security architecture are some examples.

The United States was for decades the predominant Power dominating the Western Pacific.  India's entry into the Western Pacific largely as part of PM Modi's 'Act East' policy has added heavy "strategic ballast to United States strategic predominance.

United States with India in tow now have widened the security dimensions from Asia Pacific to Indo Pacific. This in a strategic manner outflanks China's thrusts in the Middle East.

United States granting India access to advanced US military systems, technology systems, joint development and joint production of jet engines for military aircraft significantly reduces China's asymmetric military superiority over India.

Geopolitically, evident since 2020 is that India can no longer be subjected to political and military coercion by China which had accustomed to doing so prior to 2014.

China will now have to factor-in likely United States responses to any Chinese military aggression against India in the future notwithstanding the absence of a Mutual Security Treaty.

Concluding, it can be summed-up that the major outcome of the Biden-Modi June 2023 Summit is that it places India firmly on an ascendant power trajectory to Major Global Power status.

Worth recalling is that China today figuring as a Major Threat in threat perceptions of India and United States with pretentions of being a Superpower gained 'Power Status' ironically assisted by the United States.

UNITED STATES AND INDIA IN 2023 ARE IN A QUASI-MILITARY ALLIANCE TRANSCENDING A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

The United States-India Strategic Partnership whose inception took place in 2000 has in 2023 evolved into a Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership which in form and substance today is a "Quasi-Military Alliance" transcending the dimensions of a mere Strategic Partnership. 

The only difference between a Formal Military Alliance and "Quasi-Military Alliance" is that a Formal Military Alliance is defined by a formal 'Security Treaty' and a "Quasi-Military Alliance" incorporates a set of defence and security cooperation agreements without an over-arching Formal Security Treaty.

In both cases, a formal or quasi-military alliance, the objective is to cater for security cooperation against a 'Common Perceived Threat'. In a formal military alliance, the perceived threat is spelt out in terms of 'capabilities and intentions'.

In a "Quasi-Military Alliance" the 'Perceived Threat' may be spelt out 'explicitly' or 'implicitly' forms the basis of a set of defense and security agreements.

The US-India Comprehensive Special Global Partnership when examined in light of the above parameters deucedly falls into the category of a "Quasi-Military Alliance" both in the bilateral context and also in the multilateral context.

The common perceived threat in the bilateral context is the 'China Threat' which has manifested itself unambiguously in the Indo Pacific against India and the United States.

In the multilateral context, countries extending from South Korea, Japan and Australia too perceive the 'China Threat' directly as impacting on their national security interests. 

When viewed as an integrated whole in relation to the 'China Threat' in Indo Pacific, the security template that has emerged in 2023 in the IndoPacific is a set of bilateral security alliances between United States and South Korea, Japan and Australia and the bilateral US-India Comprehensive Special Global Partnership. Additionally, India has bilateral Strategic partnership agreements with Japan, Australia and South Korea.

Superimposed on the above security template in Indo Pacific are multilateral security groups like the QUAD Security Initiative comprising United States, Japan, India & Australia and AUKUS comprising USA, UK &Australia.

With NATO also perceiving the 'China Threat' to NATO's Southern Flank and with Major European Powers asserting their "stakes" in Indo Pacific security, an Eastern NATO is a possibility that now hovers over the horizon, and this was discussed in my last Paper.

Concluding, it needs to be noted with serious emphasis that however Indian foreign policy planners disavow military alliances, the stark reality in 2023 and likely to be reinforced by unfolding events in IndoPacific is that the 'China Threat' has nudged India into a "Quasi-Military Alliance" with the United States. 

Semantics aside, this is the whole truth and for India's strategic and security good. India needs to position itself securely in a heavily polarized Bipolar World which does not offer India bandwidth to indulge in shibboleths like non-Alignment 2.0 or Multipolarity.

   

IS EASTERN NATO IN OFFING? NATO OPENS LIAISON OFFICE IN JAPAN

China needs to blame itself for hastening the likelihood of an 'Eastern NATO' emerging as NATO-type security alliance in Western Pacific in response to its persistent warmongering over Taiwan and its aggression in South China Sea.

The likelihood of an Eastern NATO coming into existence figured spasmodically in global strategic analyses for last three decades. These speculative analyses were directly related to the intensity of the 'China Threat' perceived by the Nations of the Western Pacific and the United States as the Net Security Provider of the Region.

The China Threat intensity in 2023 has started to figure alarmingly in threat perceptions of United States and its key Allies in Western Pacific, namely, Japan and South Korea.

In response to China Threat assuming threatening proportions the United States under three Presidents has pivoted back to Indo Pacific security in a hyper-active posture--- reinforcing security ties with Japan & South Korea, reclaiming Philippines in its security fold and enlarging its erstwhile US Pacific Command to US Indo Pacific Command, recognizing the significance of the Indian Ocean and India to Western Pacific security.

Contextually, United States reviving the QUAD in 2017 and thereafter forging AUKUS has to be seen in the above context.

In tandem, the China Theat started figuring as a 'Threat Perception' in NATO planning. In NATO Document 'NATO Blueprint 2030' China found mention as a 'Threat' more specifically to NATO'S Southern Flank and East Mediterranean.

NATO'S Major Members like France, UK and Germany have legitimate security interests in Indian Ocean security and in South China Sea being contested by China.

In the above perspective, NATO Secretary General had visited Japan and South Korea some months back for high level consultations.

Japan and South Korea have been invited to attend NATO Vilnius Summit later this year along with Australia and New Zealand.

NATO therefore opening a 'Liaison & Coordination Office' in Tokyo and Japan willing to host NATO Liaison & Coordination Office in its capital significantly indicates that there is a growing synergy between NATO, a Euro-centric Security Alliance with the US Security Architecture in Western Pacific.

Opening of a NATO Liaison & Coordination Office in Tokyo would facilitate closer coordination between NATO and Japan and South Korea. To this could be added Philippines too based on recent indicators.

China has reacted sharply to this development and the growing strategic proximity of Japan and South Korea after decades of mistrust.

Could this be the harbinger of an 'Eastern NATO' coming into existence? The present development is pregnant with such a possibility.

Concluding, it needs to be stressed that NATOs more intense linkages with Western Pacific Allies of United States adds one more significant layer to the US-led extended deterrence against the looming China Threat in Indo Pacific.

UNITED STATES POLITICAL WILL CAN BE GRAVELY TESTED IF CHINA LAUNCHES MILITARY INVASION OF TAIWAN

China's military invasion of Taiwan has been an ongoing reality whose imminence in 2023 acquires a menacing urgency for China post-Ukraine and the 'Strategic Hemming-in' of China generated by United States crafted China-centric security architecture in Western Pacific and Indo Pacific Region as a whole.

China's response on the rebound focusses on a two-pronged strategy against the United States-led security alliances and groupings like QUAD & AUKUS.

China's exponential military upgradation and honing of its war-waging capabilities is also accompanied by Hybrid Warfare of creating domestic political turbulence in USA, Japan & and also drive wedges/ uncertainties between United States and Major allies and partners like Japan, Australia and India.

China's 'Military Invasion' of Taiwan is a "CERTAINTY' which cannot await US military estimates that China will only be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Analytically, it is assessed, that in 2023, the United States has in place military deployments and strength both of its own and that of its Allies, to thwart China's invasion plans of Taiwan and should China does invade Taiwan in a lightning strike, the United States can militarily force China to recoil.

The United States Armed Forces have prevailed in all wars of 20th & 21st Centuries and where victories were denied like in Vietnam and Afghanistan, it was due to lack of American 'Political Will' and 'Political Micro-management' of military operations by Washington civilians, as often reflected in my past writings.

The crucial question in 2023 is therefore whether the United States can display the 'Political Will' should China impulsively launch military invasion of Taiwan anytime now? 

Many imponderables prevail, but the United States has traditionally shown remarkable resilience to take 'Hard Decisions'.

In 2023 and months to follow the United States 'Political Will' is likely to be tested gravely as China's President Xi Jinping inpelled by his'Great China Dream' unwiitingly provokes the United States strategic forbearance.

Notwithstanding the above, Major Asian Powers and in capitals of the Indo Pacific Region there is an 'Expectancy' that the United States should not await being prodded by China but act decisively to exhibit its resolve as China like all bullies undrstands only the language of force applied with firm resolve.

As an initial display of United States 'Political Will' the US President should declare that America's "ONE-CHINA POLICY IS DEAD" and that Taiwan is a Sovereign Country !!!

PHILIPPINES PIVOTS BACK TO UNITED STATES IN 2023 DUE INTENSIFYING CHINA THREAT

Significant for Indo Pacific Security against the pervasive China Threat in the region, the Philippines belatedly has made a pivot back to the United States security architecture in the Western Pacific. 

The Philippines under new President Marcos Jr has granted United States access to a total of nine military bases against five earlier.

In 1992, the Philippines Senate by a majority of "one vote' only ended the lease of US major military bases at Subic Bay Naval Base and Clarkes Air Force Base where more than 20,000 US miliary personnel were based permanently in return for sizeable US economic aid.

By 1998, Philippines revised its stance. Without giving permanent bases it signed agreements with United States for rotational 'Visiting Forces' access to five bases both for rotational presence and Joint Military Exercises.

During this 30 years gap, the Philippines was trying to balance its relations with China sitting menacingly on its doorsteps.

China tried its best to drive a wedge between United States and Philippines by trade and economic inducements. China also focused subtly on Filipino sensitivities on national sovereignty. It seems to have worked for China for some years.

China in tandem however did not restrain its aggressive impulses in occupying Filipino Islands/Reefs in South China Sea and other maritime encroachments in Filipino maritime domains.

This was markedly so after 2012 with ascendancy of Xi Jinping as President of China. Due to Filipino domestic political dynamics the looming China Threat stood relegated in national security policy.

The Philippines new President Marcos Jr soon after assuming office paid a visit to China. Seemingly, President Marcos Jr returned convinced that in interests of Filipino national security interests against intensifying China Threat, it would be prudent for the Philippines to pivot back to United States security fold.

The Philippines finally recognized that the Nation's security against the China Threat could best be secured by an unambiguous pivot back to United States strategic fold.

The strategic spin-off has been a significant rebound for United States Rotational Military Presence in Philippines where now against the earlier access to five bases, the United States will have now access to four more military bases.

Reportedly, these additional four bases are in North Philippines facing Taiwan and disputed South China Sea Islands.

The United States makes significant geopolitical and strategic gains with Philippines granting access to a total of nine military bases for US Military Forces.

The Philippines stands to gain strategically and economically with its pivot back to United States fold shedding its strategic ambiguities. Surely, greater US financial assistance will flow-in.

In tandem, countries like Japan would also follow suit by enhancing security and economic relations with the Philippines. In fact, Japan has been involved in 'Capacity Building' of the Philippines Navy. 

The United States regains its strategic salience in the Philippines national security calculus in relation the China Threat which has now heated up for the Philippines.

The United States gains geopoliticallly also in that its Western Pacific Outer Perimeter now becomes more security tight and politically robust.

The United States by enhanced accesses to nine military bases in the Philippines is afforded a higher military profile to deal with China-generated 'Explosive Flash Points' in South China Sea and China's brinkmanship on Taiwan Invasion.

Obviously, due to security reasons no firm details of the new Agreement stand released by United States nor the Philippines, but it can be analyzed that United States would gain greater access to establish advanced surveillance and intelligence gathering facilities against China.

The United States can also be expected to pre-position military equipment for contingencies in relation to Taiwan and South China Sea.

China has obviously expressed its deep concerns in Philippines granting increased access to United States to military bases in Filipino territory.

China can be expected to raise turbulence in the South China Sea as in more ways than one China's attempted 'Full Spectrum Dominance' in South China Sea is that much neutralized.

In passing, it needs to be highlighted that Philippines is aware that China Threat is "Real", maybe not an outright military invasion, but manifesting in terms of political and military coercion. Notably, India has contracted to supply three batteries of BRAHMOS Missiles to the Philippines.

Overall, in geopolitical and strategic terms it is a significant gain for US-led Indo Pacific security template.