INDO PACIFIC NATIONS INTENSELY POLARISED AGAINST CHINA

China in 2021 finds itself in the unenviable position of facing at her dorsteps an intensely polarised Indo Pacific security environment ranged against China. China has itself to blame for generating this polarisation with its own acts of wanton disreagrd of its neigbours sovereignties and China's imperialistic impulses of a 'Revisionist Power'. 

China as I always have maintained in my writins for last two decades has no 'Natural Allies' to boast of, with exception of North Korea and Pakistan, whose authoritarian regimes have been beholden to China for assisting them in creation of their Nuclear Weapons arsenal and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles arrsenal.

China in 2021 is visibly in open confrontation with the United States as the reigning Superpower with legitimate vital security interests in th Western Pacific which provide the Outer Perimeter of defence and security of Homeland United States.

Chinna has tried over the last decade to perpetuate a myth in Indo Pacific that the United States is a "Declining Power' and incapable of being a Nett Provider of security of Indo Pacific.

China succeeded in this direction for some time as the United States stood strategically distracted by its military interventions in Iraq earlier and Afghanistan thereafter.

With the advent of  Chinese President Xi Jinping in power in 2013, China emerged markedly as a Major Power intent on two aims of attaining 'Strategic Equivalence' with United States and emerge as the Second Pole in the global security calculus and in the proces also ensure that the United States exits the Western Pacific.

The Uited States belatedly woke up to the above strategic realities and US President Trump set the American ball rolling in terms of US-China Tad Wars and revamping the US Forward Military Presnce in Indo Pacific.

President Biden too has also opted to pursue United States 'Hard Line' policies against China belying Chinese expectations to the contray

Tangentially, India which has had a conflictual history with China and was not openly inclined to be seen in any containment mode of China has since 2017 veered arond to join the QUAD grouping of United States, Japan,and Australia.

Similarly ASEAN which had amjor fence-sitters  watching the evolving US-China Great Game in Indo Pacific and dithered when China illegally occupied Vietnam's and Philippines' Islands are awakening up to the harsh reality that China afterall is not a benign stakeholder in regional security.

More notably, China's military expansionism and scant regard for international norms and conventions while scrambling to emerge as a Sperpower has raised strategic hackles as far as NATO and the Euopean Union.

NATO and European Union's Major Powers have not only expressed security concerns on China's miliary  brinkmanship in Indo Pacific but have asserted that their Navies will  make a presence in the South China Sea along with QUAD Navies,

Significantly therefore, in mid-2021 the security environment of the Indo Pacific stands marked by an intense polarisation of Indo Pacific nations ranged against China in which NATO and European Union nations are also joining-in.

China does not seem to be far perurbed by this polarisation at the moment but this polarisation carries serious implications for China in terms of a major armed conflict i Indo Pacific, in which China cannot hope to come out as a victor.

CHINA'S PROPENSITY FOR DISRUPTIVE STRATEGIES TARGETTING INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN FULL DISPLAY 2021

 China' s traditional propensity for inflicting its disruptive strategies targetting Indo Pacific security has been in full display in 2021, more noticeably in the last two months, when it became apparent to China that the United Sates under new President Joe Biden is in no mood to deviate from outgoing Trump Administration's 'Hard Line'policies on China.

China's bid to disrupt Indo Pacific security currently is in full operation.

Most noticeably, China has put into full operation its military provocative activities against Taiwan whose spitited defiance of China's threats to effect Taiwan's unification with Mainland China by military force is not bearing fruit. In 2021, Taiwan emerges as the most explosive conflictual flash-point between China and he UnitedStates.

 China has ratcheted tensions with its military coercive military activities around Japan's Senkaku Islands, nuclear submarines prowling in seas around Japan and combat air patrols over Sea of Japan.

Philippines islands/reefs claimed by China  as its own have been surrounded by swarms of Chinese ships which China claims are fishing vessels.

Vietnam is also under similar coercion  pressure of Chinese military activities around Vietnamese islands claimed by China.

China after its unilateral willingness to disengage from military confrontation with India in Eastern Ladakh has now after initial reasonableness has dug in its heels for more substantial disengagement to keep threshold of armed conflict low.China is stalling military & diplomatic ongoing dialogues.

What is China aiming at? Does China feel that it can militarily get the better of the United States in any potential conflict or get the better of the evolving QUAD grouping? Does China feel that it can drive wedges between the United States and Japan and India?

China's main aim is not to get into full blown military conflict with the United States and its Allies nor does China want to get into full blown military conflicts with Japan or India. China is aware that such full blown military conflicts will disrupt Chinese economic  growth and further has prospects of a wider military conflagration to China's military disadvantage.

China's major aim of inflicting disruptive strategies on Indo Pacific security is to 'Win the Battle of Perceptions'  where China while keeping the military conflictual 'presure cooker' simmering gets away by geopolitically and strategically denting United States image in Indo Pacific capitals as still engaged in 'Risk Aversion' policies and incapable of effective retaliation against China's disruptive strategies.

China thus believes that it can perpetuate the perception that the United States is a "Power on he Decline."

RUSSIA GEOPOLITICALLY ON THE WRONG SIDE OF INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Russia as an erstwhile Superpower  which aspires to re-emerge once again as an independent power center in global power-play as articulated by President Putin sometime back, is  on the wrong side geopolitically of Indo Pacific security template emerging in 2021.

In 2021 what one witnesses is an intense polarisation with Free World Democracies of the QUAD Maritime Security Imitative trying to coalesce in an informal grouping to stem the tide of an arrogant and military expansionist China flouting every international norm and UN Conventions like UNCLOS and its applicability to the South China Sea where China has notoriously distinguished itself by forcible occupation of Vietnam's and Philippines Islands. 

Russia with its stated ambitions to emerge as an 'independent power centre' in global geopolitics can hardly qualify itself or be recognised as such by Indo Pacific Region countries when they witness Russia ostensibly and actively on he side of China---much detested now globally.

Perceptionally, Russia should not be fearing any military threats in the Western Pacific from United States or US Allies like Japan and South Korea.

Perceptionally, Russia wishing to regain its earlier glory as a 'Responsible Stakeholder' in global security and peace should be seen and perceived as against any Power or a group of Powers acting in a hostile manner and impeding the principle of 'Free and Open & Safe Pacific'.

On the contrary, what one observes is that Russia has not condemned or restrained an aggressive Communist China in its predatory moves in the Western Pacific against Vietnam and the Philippines.

China is also attempting military coercion of Japan around the Senkaku Islands forgetting that the United States under Article V of the US-Japan Security Treaty is obliged to intervene against any Chinese attacks on Japanese Territory.

The United States has further cautioned China against any forcible military annexation of Taiwan.

So where dose all of the above leave Russia  should China by intended or unintended military provocations force the United States to enter into an armed conflict with China?

By all available indicators, strategic analyses would indicate that Russia would not like to be drawn into an armed conflict with the United States, and certainly not on the side of China.

Then why does Russia persist in fostering regional and global perceptions that it is with China and the mistaken belief that Russia is under-writing China's aggressive predatory moves in Western Pacific?

Russian compulsions seem to arise from the simple premise that a China under strategic pressure from the United States and seen without Russian backing would buckle and thereby upset the global balance of power contrived by the China-Russia Strategic Nexus, however tenuous

In the above line of thinking, misperceived strategically, Russia is losing out on past Strategic Partners like India and political understanding of a Power like Japan.

Needless to state that both India and Japan have emerged as  the 'Major Pillars' of the US-led Indo Pacific Security template and the QUAD which geopolitically signals to China that it will not have a free run of the Western Pacific or the Indian Ocean.

Russia take your pick!!!

 

 

 

NATO MILITARY ALLIANCE -IMPERATIVES FOR MORE ASSERTIVE NAVAL STANCES IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

 The 'China Threat'  in 2021 is no longer a a pervasive threat felt and confined to Indo Pacific Region only but has transcended the vast geographical land and maritime expanses of Asia to to figure in the threat perceptions of the Euro-centric NATO Military Alliance which was earlier solely focused on the Russian Threat to Europe.

The NATO Headquarters in Brussels in its December 2020 Perspectives Study Report "NATO 2030: United for a New Era" has expressed strategic concern on China's political, strategic and military intentions which NATO now perceives could also impact European security especially on NATO's Southern Flank nations and Eastern Mediterranean .

Some excerpts which highlight NATO's strategic concerns are reproduced as under:

• "The scale of China's power and global reach poses acute challenges to open and democratic countries particularly because of that country's (China) trajectory to authoritarianism and expansion of its territorial ambitions."
• "China has proven its willingness to use force against its neighbors as well as economic coercion and intimidatory diplomacy well beyond the Indo Pacific region."
• "NATO should deepen consultation and cooperation with Indo Pacific partners--Australia, Japan." 
  

 China's inroads into the Middle East, China-Iran Strategic Partnership and strategic projects like Maritime Silk Road and OBOR with economic pretensions as fig-leaves are cited as China's growing global ambitions of concern to NATO.

Major Powers of Europe like France and United Kingdom have already started asserting their naval presence with elevated levels in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean .

These European Powers have in recent months participated in exercises with the QUAD Navies of United States, Japan,India and Australia.

Such policy changes where European countries would kow-ow to China in the last decade have obviously been impelled by concerns of China's not so benign rise and its aggression in the South China Sea.

This is a  welcome expression of the intentions of the United States and Major Powers--all democratic countries-- to join hands to keep the freedom of navigation in international waters and the airspace above  them free from any disruptions by China as displayed in the Indian Ocean.

China for long has got away with its military aggression and expansionism in the South China Sea at the expense of its smaller neighbors like Vietnam and the Philippines. due to United States earlier 'China Hedging' policies.

China understands only one language like all bullies and that is the language of the STRONG and being STOOD UP TO firmly and pushed back.

United States, Japan, India and Australia with a revival and resurgence of the QUAD have sent the appropriate message to China.

With the China Threat being palpably felt by NATO Military Alliance as a strategic concern both for Europe and globally in NATO Perspectives for the decade up to 2030 , strong imperatives exist for NATO Military Alliance for enhanced naval stances in South China Sea.

NATO Navies and the QUAD Navies acting in unison would be an appropriate chastening message of the Free World to a Revisionist Power like China which with its Hard Line muscular policies in Indo Pacific seems to have gone on a wild Hitlerian rampage in recent years.

 

NEW US PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN OPTS TO CONTINUE UNITED STATES 'HARD LINE' STRATEGIES AGAINST CHINA'S MILITARY EXPNASIONISM

United States new President Joe Biden has wisely opted to continue American 'Hard Line' strategies against China in view of China unwiling to relent from muscular militray expansionist policies not only against South China Sea victims of Chinese expansionism like Vietnam and the Philippines but also against Asia's two major Emerged Powers like India and Japan.

US President Biden by doing so has signalled to China in clear terms that with change of US Presidency, no strategic space exists for China to feel emboldened that United States will lapse into US Democratic Party Presidents propensity to be permissive on China's expansionist impulses in Indo Pacific Region.

Flowing from the above, China much chagrined by President Biden's decision to continue US 'Hard Line' strategies against China has led to enhanced levels of China's militray provocations against Japan, Chinese Air Force intrusions in Taiwan's airspace and Philippines reefs in the South China Sea being swarmed by Chinese militia vessels numbering 200.

In terms of impact of the above, Japan and India have fast-tracked the militray upgradation of their respective Armed Forces. Smaller nations of the Indo Pacific have also resorted to similar military upgradations.

Noticeably, the four QUAD Nations seem to have intensified their Joint Naval Exercises both multilaterally and bilaterally. India which was so far shying away from actively visible QUAD manifestations has now come to the fore shedding its earlier inhibitions araising from mistaken sentiments of not displeasing China. 

 

So in April 2021 whatis clearly visible is that Asian Giants in contention with China like India and Japan have visibly signalled that they are ready to complement United States resolve under President Biden that a recalictrant China bent on shaking the foundations of a 'Rules Based Indo Pacific Order' . Invariably, if China continues in its existing challenging of Indo Pacific security then possibilities exist of a wider US-China armed conflict. In such an eventuality, no strategic space would accrue for 'Fence Sitters' in the Indo Pacific Region.