VIETNAM MODEL OF CHECKMATING CHINA DESIRABLE FOR ASEAN STRATEGIC FORMULATIONS

Vietnam significantly stands out as one ASEAN Nation which historically and contemporaneously has withstood and checkmated Chinese aggression against its sovereignty and territorial integrity despite China's preponderant superiorities in power and military potential.

In the last half a century spanning  both the 20th and 21st Century, Vietnam first repulsed and inflicted heavy casualties on Chinese Regular Military Formations which attacked Vietnam on its Northern Borders with Communist China.

In the last two decades China has persistently indulged in maritime aggression against Vietnam in South China Sea but with limited success despite the fact that till lately the United States, Western European Major Powers and Asian Major Powers like Japan and India were still not actively alive to China's military aggression in South China Sea.

ASEAN Nations stood significantly divided and shirked from outright condemnation of China for its military aggression, military adventurism and coercion against ASEAN Nations like Vietnam and the Philippines.

Major ASEAN Nations like Indonesia and Malaysia were notable "Fence Sitters" and shirked from forthright condemnation of China till lately when China blatantly intruded aggressively in their maritime domains too. Both have approached the United Nations for intervention.

ASEAN Nations as a regional grouping need to recognise that the United Nations is toothless when it comes to strong actions against China.

Further, ASEAN Nations need to recognise that China in its current mood of military expansionism on its peripheries both on land and on seas is defiant of the United Nations and all International Conventions governing the South China Sea.

So what options are available to ASEAN Nations to checkmate China from wanton aggression in the South China Sea?

ASEAN Nations need to adopt the 'Vietnam Model' as part of its regional strategy of checkmating China before it further endangers security and stability of South East Asia.

Firstly, ASEAN needs to recognise the stark reality that Vietnam recognised decades back that China is not a 'Benign Stakeholder' in ASEAN security and stability. China as a 'Revisionist Power' is overall a 'Disruptionist Power' bent on converting South East Asia and its maritime domains as its strategic backyard under Chinese hegemony.

ASEAN Nations must next recognise that China is not amenable to any peaceful dialogue processes or conflict resolution mechanisms. Vietnam learnt this reality decades back and formulated its China-strategy accordingly.

Vietnam even when US and Western Nations had not got involved actively in checkmating China actively in South China Sea managed and faced China with traditional determined robustness of national character in not submitting tamely to Chinese aggression. Vietnam fought back tenaciously with the resources that it had.

United States . France, UK , Australia, Japan and India impressed with Vietnam's determined face-off against China were drawn to Vietnam's side for reasons of not only global geopolitics but also that Vietnam was the nucleus around which any  Indo Pacific security template could be based.

Vietnam also recognised in the last decade or so that an overbearing China hell-bent on military expansionism at the expense of its smaller and comparatively less powerful nations now needed an "External Strategic Ballast" to deter China.

It is with this realisation that Vietnam incrementally opened itself to the United States, Japan, India and Australia both politically and strategically.

Today Navy Ships from all of the above countries on South China Sea patrols and naval exercises stage through the strategic Vietnam Navy Base of Cam Ranh Bay.

From the above brief recount of Vietnam strategic realisations  emerge lessons for the ASEAN Nations  Group as a whole to craft their China-Strategy, namely:

• ASEAN Nations need a 'United Regional Strategy' to deter China from further predatory adventurism against ASEAN  members sovereignty
• ASEAN as a first step recommended in an earlier Blog must operationalize Joint ASEAN Navies patrols in South China Sea.
• ASEAN Nations must put on fast-track capacity-building programmes for their Navies with special reference to submarines, ASW capabilities and Ant-Ship missiles.
• ASEAN needs to put into place a 'Joint Logistics Exchange Agreements where ASEAN Navies' ships can use each others naval logistics facilities.
• ASEAN can no longer continue to be 'ambivalent' about the 'China Threat' looming over South East Asia. No scope exists for dithering or ''Stand Alone' China Strategies by individual ASEAN Nations

Most significantly, ASEAN Nations have been left with no choice by China but to align themselves with the United States which alone can provide the 'Strategic Ballast' to deter China from DISRUPTING security and stability in the South China Sea and South East Asia as a whole.

Concluding one could leave a thought behind and that is with China once again on a wild rampage in South China Sea impacting South East Asia security, this is an opportune time once again to resurrect the 'Five Power Defence Agreement' which was operative in the 1960s of last Century as an 'ASEAN Defence Agreement'.

Vietnam as the current Chair in ASEAN may like to lead the way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHINA AND INDIA IN A 'STATE OF WAR" AS INDIA RESISTS CHINESE MILITARY EXPANSIONISM IN EASTERN LADAKH

The Himalayan Borders of India resting on China Occupied Tibet in September 2020 is witnessing China and India locked in a "Sate of War" as India confronts massed Chines Army military formations with matching military strength to oppose China's intended  military expansionism into Indian Territory across the Line of Actual Control (LAC). 

India with extensive Border Defence infrastructural improvements facilitating rapid military responses and logistics capabilities to sustain enhanced troop levels in Eastern Ladakh and on the remainder of LAC with China Occupied Tibet has sent 'Unmistakable Signals of Intent" to China that it will no longer yield to Chinese incremental nibbling attempts to alter the LAC  as per Chinese claims.

India also has signaled to China that it has firm intentions not to scale down its enhanced troop levels even in the harsh winter months that will follow for the next 4-6 months.

China now is in a dilemma as to how to contend with India's unprecedented resolve to indulge in a 'Military Face-off ' with China, without 'loss of face'.

In compulsive Chinese political and military arrogance ever since Chinese Communist Party imposed its authoritarian rule over China, instead of reconciliation and a return to respecting over half a dozen Boundary Peace & Tranquility Agreements" signed since 1993, China has resorted now to dictate India to accept China's November 7 1959 Claim Line in Eastern Ladakh. 

The above claims stand accompanied by China's threats that any Indian negative responses to China's new Claim Line exposes India to a full-blown 'War with China'.

India has firmly rejected the new Claim Lines demanded by China further signaling that India is prepared for all military options including a 'War with China'.

Asia and Indo Pacific Region nations need now to prepare for the eventuality of a full-blown China-India War anytime with China not ceasing its military provocations to alter the LAC to its dictates and India firmly resolved to checkmate China and stop it in its aggressive designs.

China-India War when it occurs would under present geopolitical scenario will inevitably draw-in other Major Powers disgusted with China's military expansionist policies. China would be seriously disadvantaged in such a scenario.

JAPAN'S FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICIES CONTINUITY UNDER NEW PRIME MINISTER SUGA ASSURED

Japan's turbulent security environment demands imperatives of "Continuity"  in its foreign and security policies even with the assumption of power by a new Prime Minister Yoshide  Suga recently.

In 2020, the most significant challenge facing Japan is the 'China Threat' which has reared its ugly head in the entire Indo Pacific Region expanse stretching from Japan to India.

Japanese PM Abe who demitted office paving the way for election of PM Suga had established a vast diplomatic network and Strategic Partnerships intended to checkmate China. In tandem, Japan under PM Abe had taken  fast-track up gradation of Japan's Armed Forces, both for defence of Japan and as conventional deterrence against China and North Korea.

Going by reports emanating from Tokyo there is a general consensus amongst policy analysts focussing on Japanese policies that PM Suga would provide that essential 'critical input' of 'continuity' in Japanese foreign and security policy formulations adopted in the last eight years.

PM Suga before assuming office of Prime Minister was for four years outgoing PM Abe's 'Chief Lieutenant' and part of his decision-making loop on foreign and security policies.

In the field of  continuity in Japanese foreign policies the same is assured by PM Suga retaining Foreign Minister Motegi. Foreign Minister Motegi, known for his close links with the US Administration, besides being a Harvard Graduate, would be a valuable asset for the new Japanese Cabinet to provide continuity with the United States -Japan Security Alliance and al so Japan's Special Strategic Partnerships with Australia and India.

 What needs noting is the significant change in the Defence Minister's portfolio where outgoing Japanese PM Abe's younger biological brother, Nobuo Kishi has been appointed as the new Defence Minister.

Defence Minister Kishi besides being attuned and in line with Japan's policies of up gradation of Japanese military build-up and deterrence capabilities against China is also noted for had-line views on development of Japan's 'independent strike capabilities'  !! 

 Japan's participation along with US Navy in South China Sea presence would therefore see no dilution. This would be heartening for South East Asian nations like the Philippines and Vietnam. 

In terms of overall analysis, it can be safely asserted that while a change of guard has taken place in Japan with PM Suga assuming the top slot in Japan's political hierarchy, it is strategically gratifying to note that "Continuity" in Japan's foreign policies and security policies would continue with the vigour of the last eight years or so.

Japan is not only the 'Sheet Anchor' of the United States security template in Western Pacific against China but also the Eastern Anchor along with India as the Western Anchor against the military expansionism of China in the vast Indo Pacific Region expanse.

 

JAPAN'S END OF PRIME MIISTER ABE'S ERA-REFLECTIONS

Japan's longest serving PM Shinzo Abe's resignation on health grounds last week marks the end of an eventful era in terms of game-changing policy initiations pertaining to Japan's national security postures and diplomatic overdrive to add substance to expanding Japan's diplomatic profile befitting a Major Power in Indo Pacific Region.

PM Abe is placed by me in the mould of past Japanese Prime Ministers like Nakasone and Koizumi who similarly played a significant role in beefing up Japan's military capacities and capabilities besides adding value to more than half a century old US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty.

In my estimation Japanese Prime Ministers Nakasone, Koizumi and Shinzo Abe were cast in the true Samurai mould ----determined warriors sensitive to Japan's National Honour and Sovereignty against all threats.

There was nothing apologetic about these three-named Japanese Prime Ministers in enhancing Japan's military and security profiles against evolving threats in Indo Pacific mainly emerging from China. This in the face of binding restrictions of Japan's Peace Constitution.

In the second decade of the 21st Century as the China Threat assumed alarming contours directly threatening  Japan's national security both in East China Sea over Japan's Senkaku Islands illegally claimed by China and China's military  expansionism in the South China Sea threatening Japan's economic and energy lifelines, PM Abe hyperactively but in muted style quietly enhanced the military capability of Japanese Armed Forces to deter China from both political and military coercion of Japan

To supplement the above,PM Abe strengthened further Japan's security ties with the United States and as evidence of his quiet but effective diplomatic skills PM Abe forged a strong personal relationship with US President Trump.

In India PM Abe will be long remembered for upgrading the Japan- India relationship along with Indian PM Narendra Modi to a Global Special Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The personal chemistry between PM Abe of Japan and Indian PM Modi has put into place a vibrant security-oriented Japan-India relationship with shared and convergent strategic views on Indo Pacific security threats and global threats.

PM Abe also was in the process of effective consultations with Russian President Putin to smoothen the legacy irritants that have impeded strong political relations between Japan and Russia.

Inn effect, the vibrant Japan-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was a notice to China that it had to contend now not only with Japan and India as single-nation entities but as an Indo Pacific or Asian Coalition of Asia's two Major Emerged Powers with shred strategic convergences on the China Threat.

PM Abe leaves behind a strong and enduring legacy for his successor PM Suga in terms of Japan's enhanced diplomatic and military profiles and policies to build upon and provide continuity to Japan's national sensitivities on its National Honour and Sovereignty.

CHINA PERSISTS IN CONFLICT ESCALATION ON INDIA'S HIMALAYAN BORDERS WITH CHINA OCCUPIED TIBET

China's propensity to impose its will by use of military force or political coercion on its neighbours whether on disputed land borders or maritime boundaries is a harsh reality for South East Asia nations as manifested in its illegal sovereignty claims over South China Sea.

China was so impelled because South East nations primarily Vietnam and the Philippines were smaller nations as compared to China's brute military might.

China was also so impelled by the fact hat the United States previous Presidents did not call-off China's bullying bluffs against its weaker neighbours.

China in 2020 has now chosen to display the same propensity against India's Himalayan land borders with China Occupied Tibet which China disputes.

Since April 2020 China has embarked on a process of altering the uneasy military confrontationist status quo on India's Eastern Ladakh Borders by the same 'salami-slicing' tactics that it so successfully employed in the South China Sea.

China was in a rude shock when its military expansionism on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) was successfully checkmated by the combat-proven Indian Army. As reflected in an earlier Blog on this BlogSpot, Indian Army with a loss of 20 Bravehearts killed nearly three times 60 Chinese PLA soldiers, and notably without use of fire-arms in hand to hand unarmed combat.

China in its wake at high-level diplomatic and military dialogues in the wake of the above agreed on disengagement on the LAC and de-escalation of military confrontation.

But China as is its wont experienced by both India and South East nations treacherously went back on its commitments and stealthily commenced operations to occupy some dominating features overlooking the LAC which were not on its side. 

India this time reversed roles and Indian Army in swift pre-emptive military operations occupied the China-coveted dominating mountain tops.

In September 2020, India's borders in Ladakh resting on China Occupied Tibet are witnessing intense military confrontation with India having pumped in Indian Army Formations to match Chinese PLA military increase in force levels. 

China miscalculated India's resolve under leadership of PM Narendra Modi and the Indian Army in a high state of War Preparedness no longer starved of funds for the same. Unlike 1962, Indian Air Force stands also deployed on front-line Air Bases signalling intent that India to defend its sovereignty will not hesitate to resort to air warfare

Overall, China-India military confrontation in Eastern Ladakh is in a tinder-box explosive situation as China now is at a loss as to how to' Save Face' after igniting its military misadventure against India.