INDIA'S DOUBLE MILITARY AND DIGITALSTRIKES AGAINST CHINA'S MILITARY ADVENTURISM AGAINST INDIA SEPTEMBER 2020

India under indomitable leadership of PM Narendra Modi has in September 2020 set an unprecedented example for future Indian Prime Ministers and more importantly for Indo Pacific nations, especially ASEAN countries, that China's military adventurism against its neighbours has not only to be stood upto but also pushed back.

Since April 2020 more noticeably China was engaged in altering the territorial and military status quo along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh to add more depth to military vulnerabilities to its Aksai Chin Highway built through illegally annexed China Occupied Aksai Chin of India's Ladakh Union Territory during Nehruvian era.

The above resulted in the first ever direct military clashes after four decades at Galwan in which Indian Army lost 20 of its Bravehearts including the intrepid Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar but not before killing nearly 50 Chinese PLA soldiers. China first denied so on its losses but TV visuals of Chines tombstones in that area were a giveaway.

In its wake China adopted a duplicitous strategy of diplomatic and military dialogues with India for de-escalation on the borders of China Occupied Tibet on one hand but in tandem resorting to surreptiously 'Salami Slicing' tactics, (reminiscent of its South China Sea military adventurism) to occupy dominating heights in area of Southern Pang gong Tso Lake---this again to change the status quo to their advantage.

Indian Army was alive and prepared to offset China's treachery and on night of August 29/30 pre-empted Chinese PLA military moves by military actions both in occupation of dominating heights and also pushing back Chinese PLA positions entrenched in the buffer zones along the Line of Actual Control.

Some reports also indicate that in the process of the above-said military operations the Indian Army has captured 25-30 Chinese PLA soldiers.

The Indian Government  under PM Narendra  Modi alongside launched a 'digital strike' against China by banning 118 more Chinese  Apps flourishing in India including PUBG. With Indian viewers contributing the bulk of China's revenues from Chinese Apps this latest 'digital strike' was significant.

India thereby signalled to China  that China's duplicitous military adventurism against India which seems to have acquired pace ad momentum under Chinese President Xi Jinping will be firmly met strongly by India adopting a Dual Strategy of Indian Army military face-offs and also economically by hurting China where it hurts most---economic losses accruing from revenue s from Indian markets. 

Contextually, the ASEAN nations most affected by China's military expansionism violating their national sovereignties' and maritime possessions in South China Sea should borrow a leaf from India's current firm resolve to not only face China squarely but also with resolve push China to 'BACKOFF'.

Easier said than done but then ASEAN has to make a beginning by both military firmness and cutting off China's economic supply chains. As reflected in an earlier Paper on this Blog, the first step is Joint Naval Patrols by ASEAN Navies in South China Sea.

China-India military confrontation is there for a long haul and it seems that the Modi Government is prepared for it backed by strong domestic political support of the Indian people at large who seceverely DISTRUST CHINA ever since 1962 stab in the back.

 

 

SOUTH CHINA SEA HEADING TOWARDS AN INEVITABLE UNITED STATE-CHINA ARMED CONFLICT

The South China Sea  is currently hearing incessantly the sounds of 'Drums of War' as China instead of submitting to international diplomatic norms of conflict-resolution is indulging in extreme military  provocations of ballistic missiles firings in this China Occupied Maritime Expanse to shoo  away two US Navy Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups presence in the region.

United States naval presence in the South China Sea along with Navies of US-allied Nations is aimed at ensuring the freedom of movement ad navigation of international shipping against Chinese Navy interference and coercion.

Today the scenario that is emerging in the South China Sea which connects the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean is one of 'Clash of Wills' between the United States and a China not only reluctant but also defiant to let go of its illegal hold over the South China Sea.

'Clash of Wills' between the United States as the sole Superpower in the world and the predominant Power in the Indo Pacific Region and China as the 'Revisionist Power' seeking political and military exit of the United States from the Region inherently carries within it the seeds of armed conflict.

The US-China 'Clash of Wills' witnesses' the ranging of United States asymmetrical military might which has ensured Indo Pacific security and stability for over seven decades with the heady newly-created exponential growing Chinese Military Power impelled by revisionist impulses.

China seems to be oblivious of United States vast asymmetrical superiority in geopolitical and military might of the United States over China. Mere possession by China of a vast, but inferior, nuclear weapons arsenal and missiles arsenal does not endow China with  a fighting chance to prevail militarily over the United Stes or deter it from enforcing the global writ on the illegality of China's untenable hold over the South Chia Sea.

China seems to be in a reckless downslide of military adventurism and expansionism on all its peripheries. China today especially after its criminal callousness in relation to global spared of China Wuhan Virus19 Pandemic has been pushed into even greater diplomatic and economic isolation.

The above combined with ethnic genocidal suppression in Xingjian and Tibet, suppression in Hong Kong and Taiwan as a 'critical 'Core Point' heading for explosion is likely to push China into further military adventurism to divert growing domestic political dissent against Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China is therefore likely to whip up emotive Han Nationalism domestic sentiments by military adventurism against Taiwan and in South China Sea. 

Both on Taiwan and in the South China Sea  Chinese military adventurism will run headlong against United States recently awakened political will and resolve  that China needs now to be checkmated before it assumes more threatening contours against the United States national interests and the security of United States Allies and Strategic Partners in the Indo Pacific.

With such a contextual backdrop as outline above, it can be asserted that China is heading towards an inevitable military conflict with the United States in the South China Sea and over Taiwan too.

The South China Sea in the coming months could most likely witness increasing China-United States clashes ranging from incidents at sea to even  United States major military operations against some of China's illegally constructed "Artificial Islands' with military fortifications to establish 'Full Spectrum' military dominance over the South China Sea.

In this ensuing likely 'Clash of Wills' between China and the United States in the South China Sea, irrespective of US Presidential Elections November 2020 outcome, no second guesses are required as to who will prevail.

 

 

INDIA'S ACT EAST POLICY AND THE "QUAD"

India graduated from its 'Look East' policy enunciated in 1990s by India's game-changer Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao to an active 'Act East' policy since 2014 under current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India's 'Look East' policy was an economic imperative which PM Narasimha Rao synchronised with his authorship of India's economic liberalisation which put India on the track of fast unfettered economic growth.

Reflected in my past writings was the reality that while India's 'Look East' policy was an economic imperative, India's 'Act East' policy under PM Narendra Modi was a "strategic imperative" as India widened its strategic horizons under BJP's second Prime Minister. 

India under its 'Act East' policy undertook a well-calibrated strategy of imitating strategic partnerships with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam which were central to security of East Asia or the Western Pacific as an insurance against China's not so benign military rise.

This was in tandem with the growing evolution of the US-India Strategic Partnership which emerged at the turn of the Millennium but matured to substantive proportions only by the second decade of he 21st Century.

The 'QUAD' Concept earlier enunciated by President Brush in the first decade of the 21st Century did not really take-off with United States strategic distractions in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the lingering ambiguities of US policies where 'China Hedging' still persisted.

India therefore quite naturally was also hedging on the QUAD Concept due to its own China Hedging wavering compulsions.

The QUAD Concept was actively revived by the US Trump Administration which soon realised the futility of United States China-policy of giving-in to China on vital issues like the South China Sea.

Political signalling by President Trump of United States hardening of stances on China encouraged the Indian policy establishment to revise its perspectives on the crucial importance of the QUAD Grouping of United States, Japan, India and Australia as an existential counterweight to China's increasing 'Expansionist Impulses'.

India was therefore taking a logical yet graduated step from 'Look East' policy to 'Act East' policy and now as an active participant in the 'QUAD Grouping' of Nations with strategic convergences on the burgeoning China Threat to Indo Pacific Security.

Contextually therefore India in 2020 has not only further reinforced its security relationships with the United States and Japan but this year extended its Strategic Partnership with Australia to include MOUs on security cooperation and more notably 'Logistics Sharing & Access' to each others logistics facilities.

With the above steps including Australia's participation in future EX-MALABAR naval exercises India apparently has become far more integrated in the QUAD Grouping whose overall aim is to jointly ensure the freedom of global commons like the South China Sea which has  seen Chinese aggressive expansionism and checkmating China's growing intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean.

In terms of perspectives, it needs to be observed that the QUAD Grouping as a strong potent Naval Grouping is in India's long rang strategic interests and security which should increasingly find more acceptance within India amongst all right thinking Indians who value India's 'Sovereignty' and 'National Honour as India grapples with China's increasing 'Expansionism' especially in relation to Idia's national interests.

 

 

UNITED STATES NEEDS TO RECOGNISE CHINA'S MILITARY ADVENTURISM SPRINGS FROM CHINA OCCUPIED TIBET

The United States in mid-02020 having finally recognised that China is a serious military threat to the United States and is undermining US National Security interests across the entire expanse of the Indo Pacific landmass and  maritime expanses from Japan to Singapore needs also to ask itself a serious question as to what are the underlying strategic and military factors that embolden China to rewrite the established security template put into place by the United States and which is has stood stable and endured for nearly seventy tears.

 

China admittedly has emerged with a sizeable threatening military machine moreso in the first decade of the 21st Century as the United States was bogged-down in its military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. This created a security vacuum in the Western Pacific and coupled with United States 'China Appeasement' policies as an additive China with a cover so provided by US strategic inattentiveness embarked to build a powerful Blue Water Navy which is now rampaging across the Western Pacific Seas and intruding into the Indian Ocean.

 

In mid-2020, China has intensified its military confrontation and clashes across the length of the nearly 4,000 km long Indian Himalayan Border with China Occupied Tibet.

 

In my assessment China's expansionist military adventurism arises from the secure feeling that China is only vulnerable militarily to United States military intervention on its Western Pacific littoral. China perceives that its Western Flanks are secure because of its China Occupied Tibet landmass and the Pakistan collaboration on its contiguity with Pakistan territory of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir belonging to India.

 

China Occupied Tibet has converted the erstwhile Spiritual Kingdom of Tibet into a vast Military Garrison Expanse bristling with massed PLA Army Mechanised Formations. Air Force Bases and Nuclear Weapons and Missiles Complexes.

 

Chin's military adventurism against India and its strategic forays in Greater South West Asia are facilitated by the vast Military Base it has created on the vast open spaces of the Tibetan Plateau under its illegal military occupation.

 

The United States needs to recognise that if the United States wishes to strategically tame and downsize China then China needs to be divested of its illegally occupied China Occupied Tibet.

 

India as the only Major Power with a nearly 4,000 long landmass border with China Occupied Tibet is vitally affected by China Occupied Tibet from where sprouts most of China's military expansionist misadventures against India.

 

It was with the above in view that I peened my latest Paper entitled "TIBET FREEDOMNEEDS TO BE PIVOTAL THRUST OF INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY 20202" Paper No.6653 of23 July 2020 on SAAG website www.southasiaanalysis.org and further reproduced by Eurasia Review.

 

Recommended reading for United States policy and national security establishment and Indo Pacific Capitals.

UNITED STATES FINALLY ADOPTS HARDENED POLICY STANCES ON CHINA'S DEFIANCE OF GLOBAL NORMS

Heartening for Indo Pacific Security environment is that this month the United States has finally though belatedly adopted hardened policy stances on China's continued defiance of global norms of international behaviour expected from a Nation that aspires to emerge as a Superpower.

 

China in the last two months has in a repetition of its past aggressive brinkmanship visible significantly from 2013 onwards has embarked on a resurgence of its aggressive military behaviour extending across the entire Indo Pacific expanse stretching from Japan (East China Sea) through South China Sea (Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia) and intensifying its military confrontation with India more noted in Eastern Ladakh bordering China Occupied Tibet.

 

This latest Chines resurgence when viewed against the backdrop of the China-generated Wuhan Virus19 Pandemic sweeping across Major Power democracies but not touching China on the same scale raises serious questions of Chin's intentions.

 

China either is trying to divert global attention from its criminal culpability in terms of accountability for Wuhan Virus19 outbreak from China's Wuhan Virological Laboratories engaged reputedly in experiment for Biological Warfare weapons or China believes that with the United States and Major Powers  weighed down with fighting the Wuhan Virus Pandemic would be strategically distracted from taking strong counter-responses to China's wild aggressive rampage across the entire Indo Pacific region.

 

China seems to be impelled by both of the above two determinants stated above whereas the latter may now be more predominantly weighing in these last two months.

 

Tangentially, China much against global opinion has passed new Security Legislation on Hong Kong which stood plagued with widespread riots by its population against China's attempts to apply China's sedition laws on Hong Kong. China can now be expected to brutally suppress all struggles for democracy in Hong Kong by its residents who at least culturally are quite distinct from Mainland Chinese.

 

China in these two months  has visibly and starkly demonstrated that in the pursuit of Chines President Xi Jinping's 'Great China Dream' it is not ready to submit to any international conventions, agreements or be stopped by the United States or any other Major Powers aligning with the United States .

 

The United States long permissive of China's strategic delinquencies for both geopolitical and strategic reasons seems to have been pushed into a corner by China.

 

As of this month, it is clearly becoming visible that United States is now going to seriously "Push Back" on China's unrestrained relentless rampage across Indo Pacific Region. The United States seems to have weighed the costs of a 'Reset' of its China Policy and is now engaged in initiating various political, economic and military measures to impose costs on China where it hurts most.

 

The United States seems also to be encouraged by the widespread  backlash against China in all Indo Pacific and European capitals on both counts of China's irresponsible and provocative actions of firstly not putting the international community on notice of Pandemic Outbreak from Wuhan and also in its cover indulging in a resurgence of its military aggression and brinkmanship all over Indo Pacific..

 

China has by its such misdemeanours has generated a "SEVERE STRATEGIC DISTRUST" in world capitals against itself..

 

The United States taking advantage of widespread global revulsion on China's on-going military aggression has hardened its policy stances against China. United States has withdrawn Special Status accorded to Hong Kong, imposing sanctions on Chinese officials connected with Hong Kong suppression, intensified its FONOPS in South China Sea, asserted forcefully that China is in illegal control and occupation of Philippines and Vietnam Islands in South Chia Sea and severely castigated China for intensifying military confrontation with India in Eastern Ladakh.

 

In coming weeks and months we can expect the United States to further tighten the screws on China in a bid to checkmate its aggressive transgression against Indo Pacific Region nations.

 

China seems unlikely to submit to United States pressures and therein lies the inevitability of the long-predicted military showdown of the United States with an Expansionist China.

 

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