Iran's two Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreements with China (2021) and Russia (2025) both need to be read as 'Security Treaties' arising from strategic convergences to put in place existential counterweights by Iran against possible threats of United States military interventions.
Iran noticeably with acute adversarial relations with United States was a '"Strategic Magnet" to China and Russia to be drawn in for a security presence and influence in the world's largest Shia-majority State in a largely Arab Sunni monarchial kingdoms of Gulf, allied to the United States.
Iran before the initiation of these Security Treaties was militarily engaged with China and Russia for decades.
From Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979 to 2021, despite Iran being under severe military and economic pressures in a hostile neighborhood, Iran entered into a Security Treaty with China only in 2021 after hard bargaining. It had much to do with China prioritizing Saudi Arabia over Iran, including Chines supplies of CSS2 IRBMs.
The period 2021 to 2024 is strategically notable for Iran in relation to Russia.
In 2022 the Russian Invasion of Ukraine brought Iran closer to Russia wherein Iranian supplies of thousands of Drones assisted Russia in its faltering offensives in Ukraine. Iran also assisted Russia with ammunition supplies for its war in Ukraine.
In October 2023 and 2024, Iran was engulfed in a running war with Israel through its Proxy Militias---Hamas and Hezbollah, and for the first time direct Iranian Missiles/Rockets attacks on Israel.
United States Military Intervention in Iran had now become a distinct possibility, including destruction of Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities.
This hastened the Security Treaty with Russia, finally materializing in January 2025 and with incoming US President Trump's advent as catalyst.
Analytically, the question that comes to the fore is that did Iran feel inadequate with its Security Treaty (2021) with China, in terms of coping with a possible US Military Intervention against it?
Did Iran assess that Russia was a more reliable guarantor of Iranian security and assured source of advanced weapons and weapons technology than China?
Or were there other geopolitical factors weighing-in with Iran which prompted Iran to have an additional Security Treaty with Russia tto beef its security?
The answers will unfold sooner than later.
Judging by available reports in January 2025 what emerges is that Russia's Security Treaty with Iran notably caters for Mutual Security Assistance in case of aggression.
Further, the scale of intensity and levels of Russia's military cooperation with Iran surpasses the notional Chinese military assistance to Iran since 2021.
To sum it up, the Security Treaty with China was more of 'economic security' and less of military security for Iran. China's promise to invest $400 billion in Iran infrastructure, more specifically petrochemicals was an inducement for Iran.
Geographical proximity of Russia with Iran as compared to a 'distant' China may have also weighed in with Iran to prefer Russia over China, in the bilateral context.
Concluding, Iran's 'Security Treaty' with Russia is an ominous development in the Middle East strategic calculus with serious implications and challenges for United States, West and Isreal.
Possibility of proactive Russian military involvement to assist Iran against any US military intervention will now be a factor for consideration.
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