UNITED STATES PECEPTIONALLY A "FADING SUPERPOWER" ON GEOPOLITICAL AND STRATEGIC INDICATORS IN 2025

The United States is a "Fading Superpower" as per geopolitical and strategic indicators surfacing in 2025. Nothing validates this earlier assertion by me than the recently leaked Draft of the "US National Security Strategy 2025" prepared by the newly designated United States "Department of War' of the earlier US Defense Department.

The 'US National Security Strategy 2025' Document (NSS 2025) which will provide the 'Strategic Blueprint' which will be issued under the signature of President Donald Trump, on analysis, has "flipped on its head" United States geopolitical policies and strategic formulations that formed the fundamentals of sustaining United States unique pole position as a 'Superpower'.

The "Fading Superpower" assertion made by me is strongly validated by the implicit "Retrenchment of United States Global Predominance" when major REVERSALS of erstwhile US geopolitical stances of NSS 25 are analyzed.

Major REVERSALS of US geopolitical stances and strategic postures can be briefly highlighted as follows: (1) China and Russia Threats to US Security cited as 'Prime Threats' in pre-Trump 2.0 eras now stand 'downgraded as "Secondary Concerns" (2) Homeland Security and Western Hemisphere security are now 'Top Priorities' superseding the China Threat and Russia Threat (3) European Security burden to be shouldered by European Nations (4) Indo Pacific Security burden is being shifted to Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Major geopolitical deductions that implicitly strike my mind and which again validate my assertion that United States is a "Fading Superpower" are discussed below.

Heading the list is the stark reality that United States' 'Deterrent Power' and capabilities against China and Russia have failed. Reversing the China Threat and Russia Threat from Prime Threats to 'Secondary Concerns' is a tacit admission of erosion of US Superpower status.

Prioritizing narrow Homeland Security and Western Hemisphere Security over United States Global Threats from the Russia-China Axis betrays US fears that greater dangers lurk in terms of US Internal Security and Chinese penetration in Major Latin American Nations.

Passing-on the burden of European Security and Indo Pacific Security to regional nations earlier deemed as critical strategic sub-systems in US Global Strategic Calculus starkly represents that 'US Global Predominance is under Retrenchment'.

Overriding and overarching this sudden 'Retreat of American Empire" which emerged in post-Worl War II era is the reality check that the United Sates with President Trump having assumed power feels unable to shoulder the economic load of maintaining US Global Predominance a 'Perquisite' of the status of a Superpower.

The resort to punitive tariffs against Allies and Strategic Partners appears as a strategy to ride-over US economic problems of overstretched military power.

'Making America Great Again' (MAGA) which is President Trump's favorite emphasis currently seems more as a political subterfuge as the United States seeks to solve its geopolitical dilemmas.

My essay titled "United States Stares at Erosion of its Superpower Status in 2025 Due to President Trump 2.o Policies" of Aug 24, 2025, which was published before NSS 25 draft stood leaked, quoting extensively from Paul Kennedy's 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers' was an early pointer to this effect.

Once again, it would be pertinent to quote my major observation made in the above essay which read "American Historians would record 2025 as the inflexion point when the fall of America's Imperial Sway over global predominance power-play stood hastened by President Trump's policies alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners for short term transactional gains".

Can this process be reversed? Unlikely in President Trump's tenure. Can subsequent follow-up US President's retrieve the loss of US global predominance? Difficult as it takes decades to build up 'Credibility' as a Superpower,

Concluding, the dismal thought that strikes one's mind is that international geopolitics is headed towards a greater churn than presently being witnessed. Would it take World War III to throw up a NEW SUPERPOWER?

P.S Further analysis of military implications for India and Indo Pacific security in which India is intensely involved will follow in my next Article.

 

CHINA'S STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES FOR SUSTAINABLE PEACE WITH INDIA DICTATE CHINESE 'RECAST' OF SOUTH ASIA POLICIES

The Tianjin Summit Declaration (September 01, 2025) saw the three Major Powers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), namely Russia-India-China, declaring their intention to strive for a Multipolar World Order with emphasis on security, economic and technological cooperation.

Globally, the geopolitical landscape in September 2025 stands severely disrupted by the strategic uncertainties spawned by US President Trump's unpredictable unilateralist policies obsessed with trying to recapture United States "Unipolar Moment".

US President Trump's fixative obsession of' 'Making America Great Again' (MAGA) inherently carries the seeds of confrontation as the evolving Multipolar World is no longer willing to concede to 'American Exceptionalism.

Contextually therefore, the salience of the Russia-India-CChina Trilateral stands "revived and needs re-inven ontextually therefore, the salience of the Russia-India- tion". While Russia and India enjoy strategic convergences and proximity, it is China which has to strive for 'Strategic Convergences & Strategic Proximity" with India by cementing Indian 'Strategic Trust".

China in September 2025, more than ever, geopolitically and strategically, needs "Sustainable Peace" with India, wherein the US President Trump perceives that China is a more potent threat to US National Secuity than Russia. 

US strategic formulations on China are likely to follow a two-prong strategy which would incorporate tactical 'China Appeasement policies and the second prong aimed at 'driving a wedge in Russia-China relations to weaken their strategic nexus.

The optics at Tianjin Summit provoked the United States to warn India not to strategically embrace China.

Strategic reality check would indicate that in the first decade and a half of 21st Century, it was China that pushed India into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States by its unrestrained military buildup of Pakistan including nuclear weaponization and long -range missiles.

It is now incumbent on China to draw back India from fully embracing the United States, and reinforcing the Tianjin Summit 'Spirit ' for a truly Multipolar World,

In September 2025, specifically after India's military blitzkrieg OP SINDOOR operations and despite China providing 'real-time 24x7 intelligence of Indian military movements', Pakistan lay militarily paralyzed and prostrate.

 China, in view of the above needs to answer the following questions to itself, namely: (1) Have China's strategies of 'containing India though proxy use of Pakistan as 'spoiler state' worked? (2) Does Pakistan have the potential even with exponential increase in Chinese military aid to effectively contain India in future? (3) Can China, even with Pakistan's (despite Pakistan's spasmodic dalliance propensity with United States) in tow face a 'Three Front War', should India discard multipolarity and tilt towards United States? 

The answers to the above questions for China would be a RESOUNDING 'NO'. Simply, because India is last 11 years of PM Modi era has surged into a strategic, military and economic geopolitical heavyweight acknowledged by Global Major Powers.

Concluding therefore, in light of the analysis above, overwhelming strategic imperatives exist for China to strive for "Sustainable Peace" with India, whose starting point, imperatives dictate, that China should "Recast" its Pakistan-centric Sout Asia policy formulations. 

China needs to recognize that China cannot succeed to achieve a Multipolar Word Order, without India at its side. Rusia realizes this reality it is China, that now has to adopt this path. Then only the 'Tianjin Declaration "spirit" would be meaningful prevail.

It is China's call now?

UNITED STATES-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP 2025: "PAST PEREFECT, FUTURE IMPERFECT"

In mid-2025, the US-India Global Comprehensive Strategic Partnership crafted laboriously for 30 years by bipartisan political support in both United States and India under different political dispensations stands washed away by the 'unpredictable but predictable' impulses of US President Trump 20. 

The US-India Strategic Partnership in September could be aptly termed as "Past Perfect, Future Imperfect".

President Trump's colossal blunder in castigating and imposing punitive tariffs on India mindless of the US strategic losses is akin to China stabbing Nehru in the back in 1962 for crusading for Communist China.

President Trump virtually stabbed Indian PM Narendra Modi who steered the US-India strategic Partnership to greater geopolitical and strategic heights.

India's 'National Psyche' stood greatly "singed" by China's betrayal of Indian trust. Likewise, in a matter of days India's 'National Psyche' stands "singed" by President Trump's betrayal of India's 'Strategic Trust' spanning 30 years.

Even past top US personages of previous US Administrations have bitterly criticized President Trump for this 'Himalayan Blunder' in jeopardizing the future of US-India Strategic Partnership due to personal pique and a bloated ego.

In terms of future perspectives, the US-India Strategic Partnership stands condemned to an "IMPERFECT FUTURE' even if the Trump Administration indulges in belated damage control. The broken pieces even if joined by strong epoxies by United States cannot hide the 'cracks though joined' of the Strategic Partnership edifice.

Geopolitically, and for reasons of Indian PM Modi's stress on "Multipolarity", India may not snap ties with United States, like it did with China. But to believe that US-India relations will revert to old format of Indian implicit trust in United States is a distant cry.

Concluding, it needs to be stressed that Modi's India 2025 is not the timid India of the Cold War era when India took refuge in 'Non-alignment' policy formulations. Modi's India 2025 is a Global "Geopolitical Heavyweight" and the World's third largest economy, whose Strategic Preferences may tilt the balance-of- power, either side it sways.

United States President Trump and his advisers need to reckon with this strategic reality. India in 2025 brooks no "political patronizing" from any quar

CHINA-INDIA RESET OF RELATIONS SEPTEMBER 2025: SHORT-TERM GEOPOLITICAL COMPELLANCE OR LONG-TERM STRATEGIC VISION?

Strategic convergence between China and India has perceptionally emerged in September 2025 emanating from US President Trump's 'Trade Wars' with China and President Trump's personalized 'Tariffs Terrorism' against India Post-Op SINDOOR decisive military victory over Pakistan in June 2025. 

China figures high in United States' Threat Perceptions for decades as a potent threat to US national interest and influence. But India for the last 25 years has figured in American policies as a 'Valued Pivotal Stategic Partner', until advent of Trump 2.0 Administration in 2025.

This only proves the old-age adage of international relations that in geopolitics 'There are no Permanent Friends or Foes, only National Interest. It did not take long for a personally piqued US President to jettison the US-India Strategic Partnership.

Geopolitical compellance, as first reaction, seems to have been the major factor with China taking the lead earlier this year to "Reset" China-India relations, with India too, responding positively to China's offer.

The critical question that policy makers and strategic analysts worldwide are tackling in September 2025, as Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi confabulate at SCO Tianjin Summit in China, is whether this is 'Short-term Geopolitical Compellance' or 'Long-Term Strategic Vision'?

Foreign policies of Nations do not operate in a geopolitical vacuum but greatly impelled and influenced by contemporary and unfolding geopolitical forces.

Accordingly, it is 'Short-term Geopolitical Compellance' arising from prevailing US hostility against China and India that obviously and logically have nudged China's and India's moves to objectively 'Reset' their relations at Tianjin.

However, it is pertinent to state that China's and India's moves to rest heir relations took birth at SCO Summit in Kazan, Russia in July 2024, and therefore predates the Trump Factor.

So that gives an indication that the 'Trump Factor' in 'China-India Reset' may have only been a catalyst to the process that President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi initiated at SCO Summit Kazan in July 2024.  

Analytically, therefore, one can concede that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi, mindful of geopolitical forces at play and unfolding, recognized that 'Long Term Strategic Vision' dictated that China and India needed 'Redefine China-Indian Relations'.

Easier said than done, but then as history proves that major geopolitical turnarounds sprout from geopolitical compellance.

'China-India Reset' as a 'Long-Term Strategic Vision' places a heavier load on China's shoulders to restore the 'Strategic Trust' in India marred by China's sordid and acrimonious past of decades since 1962.

India in September 2025, has emerged as a 'Powerful Swing State' whose geopolitical preferences can alter the global balance-of-power. China is aware of this strategic reality and should therefore make concerted efforts to wean away India from the US strategic orbit to the Russia-India-China Orbit.

Concluding, to achieve all of the above, China needs to replace its existing policy mindsets which have impeded good-unneighborly relations with India,namely, (1) Multipolarity is applicable not only at global level but also at the Asia-level (2) India cannot be 'contained' by China by the likes of Pakistan and Bangladesh (2) Boundary dispute cannot continue as an 'Eternal Chinese Damocles Sword' over India (3) China and India in 2025 are 'Near Equals'  in virtually all domains. There is no bandwidth for 'Chinese Exceptionalism' in China-India relations. 

China with its marked adversarial postures that pushed India into a substantive Strategic Partnership with United States. China can now, singularly, cause a realignment of India by jettisoning the above mindsets. 

 

UNITED SATES STARES AT THE EROSION OF ITS SUPERPOWER STATUS IN 2025 DUE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP 2.0 POLICIES

The United States under President Trump 2.0 stares in 2025 at the erosion of its Superpower Status for the first time after the end of World War II which marked its rise to that status.

 American historians would mark 2025 as the inflexion point when the fall of America's imperial sway over global power-play stood hastened by President Trump's policies alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners for short term transactional economic gains.

The decline and fall of the imperial "American Empire" inevitably falls into the mould traced by the famous historian Paul Kennedy in his eminent voluminous Bok: "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers".

United States in 2025 exhibits all symptoms of 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers'. It would be best to quote verbatim the major observations by Paul Kennedy on the back-cover of his Book which overs a survey from 1500-2000, to highlight in 2025 the reasons which could lead to diminution of United States status as a Superpower. Quotes and my comments thereon.

PAUL KENNEDY'S OBSERVATIONS 

"Although the United States is at present still in a class of its own economically and perhaps even militarily, it cannot avoid confronting the two great tests which challenge the longevity of every major power that occupies the 'number one' position in world affairs: whether, in the military/strategical realm, it can preserve a reasonable balance between the nation's perceived defense requirements and the means it possesses to maintain these commitments; and whether, as an intimately related point, it can preserve the technological and economic bases of its power from relative erosion in the face of the ever-shifting patterns of global production."

COMMENTS

The United States in 2025 global predominance geopolitically, strategically and economically is under siege by the contending rise of Russia and China. Emerging Powers like India with fastest global economic growth rates and a sizeable military machine backed by advanced technologies occupy 'Swing State' status.

Global opposition to United States predominance manifests itself in the emergence of the Russia-China Axis, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the possible revival of the Russia-India- China Trilateral.

PAUL KENNEDY'S OBSERVATIONS

"The test of American abilities will be greater because it, like imperial Spin around 1600 or the British Empire around 1900, is the inheritor of a vast array of strategical commitments which had been made decades earlier, when the nation's political, economic, and military capacity to influence world affairs seemed so much assured."

COMMENTS

In 2025, the United States political, economic and military capacity to influence global power-dynamics stands greatly reduced as compared to its Cold War overall predominance.

The United States today stands challenged not only by the Russia-China Axis, but also by Lesser Power like North Korea and Iran.

In 2025, perceptionally, the United States stands reduced to a 'Fading Superpower' whose President is forced to resort to 'Tariff Wars' bullying of global economies to offset glaring US Trade Deficits.

Perceptively again, the United States as a Superpower "shirks" from applying punitive Tariffs Strikes on Russia and China as applied on its Europea Allies, Pacific Allies, and pivotal Strategic Partners (so far) like India.

PAULKENNEDY'S CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

In consequence, the United States now runs the risk, so familiar to historians of the rise and fall of previous Great Powers, of what might roughly be called 'imperial stretch': that is to say, in Washington must face the awkward and enduring fact that the sum total of the United States' global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than the country's power to defend them all simultaneously".

COMMENTS

That the United States in 2025 is in the stage of "Imperial Overstretch" would b an understatement. The United States global and regional deployments of the Cold War era sill remain despite the shrinkage of its economic capacity to maintain them.

United States' hitherto for global strategic Managment rested on a system of vibrant and robust military alliances and a spiderweb of bilateral security treaties with its Pacific Allies. Japan and South Korea shouldered heavy costs of 'hosting US Forces.

President Trump, both in his earlier term, and in his preset incumbency, resorted to undue pressures on its NATO Alliance Nations and Pacific Allies for increased defense spending.

 The above obviously arising from United States incapacity and reluctance in 2025 to shoulder the financial burden of maintaining its global commitments of a Superpower.

Does this not reflect, in 2025, the "Erosion of its Superpower Status"? 

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONs

Twenty-five years have passed since Paul Kennedy gave the above valuable insights. Since then, the United States global predominance and its capacity to influence global power dynamics or impose its will on conflictual conflagrations stands greatly curtailed by rise of a multipolar world.

The United States managed to retain its unique Superpower predominance, though with some strain and hiccups, till the Biden Administration. United States diplomatic stances matched the formulations of its National Security Document.

Contentious issues amongst US Allies were sorted out discreetly by discreet diplomacy, outside the public glare, and thereby retaining the overall value and confidence in US global leadership.

In 2025, the blatant bluff and bluster scalding US Allies and Strategic Partners on Trade Tariffs by incumbent President Trump vocally in full public glare is wearing thin not only the trust in US global leadership but also misperceptions that the United States is being reduced toa 'TransactioalPower' minus long term vision.

'Making America Great Again' (MAGA), avowed aim of President Trump, cannot be achieved by alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners who have long contributed to United States retaining its Superpower status.

In the global geopolitical churn, the United States can Ill afford to lose its Allies and Strategic Partners. Options othr than the United States are open to them.

UNITED STATES PRESIDENT TRUMP PLAYING THE "PAKISTAN CARD" AGAINST INDIA IN 2025 FOREDOOMED TO FAILURE

US President Donald Trump perceptible playing the "Pakistan Card" against India in mid-2025 in complete reversal of Trump 1:0 policies (2016-20) are foredoomed to failure simply .because India today carries more geopolitical weightage globally and is not a strategic pushover like Pakistan.

Overlooked by President Trump and his policy establishment is that in the prevailing global geopolitical churning, it is the United States that critically needs India as a Strategic Partner and not India needing the United States.

India today with its geopolitical and economic weight can tilt the scales of the global Balance of Power by its strategic preferences

President Trump's reckless moves, therefore, to browbeat India to yield to US-demanded trade concessions risks the US-India Strategic Partnership laboriously crafted over last 25 years.

 President Trump's transactional approaches could spell the end of QUAD Security Initiative as besides India as the pivotal member, the other two nations, Japan and Australia are equally aggrieved by President Trump's impulsive actions.''

Regrettably, in his penchant for seeking publicity headlines, perceptionally, President Trump has overridden the saner vices in Washington not to antagonize India.

Perceptibly, there is an element of personal pique against Indian PM Modi for not conceding to President Trump's self-asserted claims that it was he who pressurized India and Pakistan during mid-2025 for a ceasefire after India's decisive cripplng of Pakistan's offensive capabilities. 

President Trump's ego and his Nobel Peace Prize aspirations stood bruised and hence his ordering 50% tariffs on Indian exports to USA with the fig leaf that it was intended to restrict India's purchase of Russian oil.

Duplicitous approach of President Trump is starkly evident as China buys more Russian oil than India does. But President Trump overlooking this fact has not penalized China but has extended the tariffs deadline imposition by another 90 days.

Coming to Pakistan, President Trump has noticeably displayed a "Pakistan-tilt" in his statements and deeds. This trend stands intensified after India refusing to concede that there was ' NO Third Party Mediation' for ceasefire and that it was Pakistan Army DGMO who initiated ceasefire request to Indian Army DGMO on the hotline. 

Rubbing into India's strategic sensitivities, President Trump  hosted a lunch for Pakistan Army Chie Asif Munir which was a departure from established protocol as this honor is reserved for Heads of State.

Rubbing India further, United  under President  Trump hosted a second visit by Pakistan Army Chief and a flurry of visits by Pakistan's military hierarchy. Increased military aid to Pakistan is in evidence.

The last time a US President displayed similar "Pakistan Tilt" policies arising out of personal pique was a fellow Republican President Nixon goaded by his NSA Heny Kissinger in 1971. What was the result? Nixon's outright military threats to India and ordering US aircraft carrier group led by USS ENTERPRISE could not subdue India.

Nixon's antagonistic policies against India and follow-up sanctions were disastrous for the United States national interests. Pakistan stood partitioned, Bangladesh emerged as an independent nation and United States lost out strategically on India till the turn of the Milennium.

Concluding, President Trump's "Tariff  Terrorism" against India and his pronounced 'Pakistan Tilt" are foredoomed to failure. India in the past when it was not a geopolitical heavyweight weathered many American economic sanctions and American "Pakistan Tilts".

In 2025, when India has emerged as a geopolitical and economic heavyweight in the global power-calculus, India cannot be expected to yield to US President Trump's piqued tantrums. India today demands respect on the strength of its power-credentials and will not take President Trump's bullying. 

If the United States does not carry out immediate course-corrections, it stands to lose India as a pivotal Strategic Partner, mark the end of US-India Stategic Partnership, and lead to unravelling of the QUAD, and also the emergence of BRICS solidly and potently working for "De-Dollarization".

RUSSIA-INDIA-CHINA TRILATERAL REVIVAL AS ADVOCATED BY RUSSIA & CHINA GEOPOLITICALLY AND STRATEGICALLY INADVISABLE FOR INDIA 2025

Russia and China whenever geopolitically cornered globally have displayed the propensity to actively advocate for revival of the Russia-India-China Trilateral as an optical geopolitical leverage against United States and the West.

In recent weeks, this has surfaced once again, with now China voicing that India should agree to Russian advocacy of the revival of the Russia-India-China Trilateral. This advocacy was last most active in the latter half of the 2000s when India was signing the US-India Civil Nuclear Deal and the US-India Strategic Partnership was becoming substantive.

In 2025, India has emerged in her own right as a Major Power in the global strategic calculus. India has amply exhibited its national power attributes and heading India towards 'Real Strategic Autonomy'. Incapacitating Pakistan's offensive capabilities with 'Deep Strikes' in Pakistan's Heartland during OP SINDOOR despite Pakistan's nuclear blackmail and China's overt support evidently support this assertion.

So, the question that comes to the fore is as to how India geopolitically and strategically benefits if it opts for revival of the Russia-India-China-Trilateral?

In my assessment, no geopolitical or strategic gains accrue to India in 2025 or thereafter by once again participating actively in a "Revived" Russia-India-China Trilateral.

Russia is bogged down in 2025 in a strategic quagmire of its own creation in the Ukraine War. China in my assessment i2025 is "besieged" geopolitically and increasingly internally with serious domestic upheaval in the offing.

More significantly, Russia and China figure "high" in the 'Threat Perceptions' of the United States, UK, France, Germany, Japan and Australia with which India has forged Strategic Partnerships.

In fact, in 2025, the global scene today presents two Major Powers Groups confronting each other, directly or by proxy, namely, United States & its Allies versus the Russia-China Axis.  

India should therefore in 2025, or even thereafter not be ensnared into a geopolitical swamp from which it would be difficult to wriggle out without significant geopolitical losses if it once again becomes active in Russia-India-China Trilateral.

Even in the heyday when India found the Russia-India-China Trilateral geopolitically an attractive proposition in past Indian political dispensations, decades ago, my writings then argued too that it was not in India's national interests to be part of such a Trilateral.

The Russia-India-China Trilateral, geometrically too, was never, and even now, a sound proposition for India.

Taking the Trilateral as a Geometrical Tringle, Russia sits at the top of the Triangle with India and China forming the two ends of the base of the Triangle. With India and China figuring as 'implacable enemies', the base of this Triangle inherently crumbles under its own contradictory adversarial weight. 

In the last two decades, can India forget the Chinese and Russian (under Chinese pressures) anti-Indian geopolitical gimmicks in South Asia against India? 

A Russia-China-Pakistan compact was very much visible on Afghanistan where both Russia and China sidelined India from dialogues on Afghanistan in Moscow forgetting that India had sizeable geopolitical stakes there.

A petulant Russia then also went on to supply military hardware to Pakistan to strategically discomfit India. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's statements then were certainly not India-friendly. President Putin's Special Advisor Kabulov was decidedly anti-Indian.

China's Compulsive Obsessive Disorder of "Downsizing India" geopolitically, militarily and now adding 'Economic Warfare" stands well documented in my past and recent writings. 

China's persistent record of supporting Pakistan's State-sponsored terrorism against India both by vetoing UN Resolutions censuring Pakistan or Pakistan Army affiliated Jihadi Groups reinforces China's postures as an 'Inveterate & Implacable Enemy of India'.

Does India need or seem to be a part of any 'Coalition' with Russia and China with their demonstrated record not only perceived as 'Disruptive Powers' globally, but also with convergent Russia-Chia Axis strategic aims at cross-purposes with India's National Interests?

Concluding, it needs to be reiterated that surely PM Narendra Modi and the Indian foreign policy establishment would be seized with the above factors and would resist any pressures to actively participate in a 'revived' Russia-India -China Trilateral.

Political 'tactical expediency' in short-term to soft-pedal this issue for access to Russian cheap oil and India securing its supply chains against China's 'Economic Warfare' disruptions are well -understandable.

CHINA'S RELENTLESS STRATEGIC DOWNSIZING OF INDIA NOW ADDS AN "ECONOMIC WARFARE" DIMENSION TO ITS ANTI-INDIA ARMORY: IMPLICATIONS

China having failed in its strategies to strategically downsize India for decades by devious geopolitical means and military coercion on India's borders with China Occupied Tibet has now desperately embarked on "Economic Warfare" to impede India's 'Power Rise'.

In the years since 2014, with the advent of PM Modi-led BJP Government, India has acquired significant geopolitical weightage. Adding to this is India's stellar 'War Preparedness' achieved since 2014, adding muscle to India's diplomacy and providing PM Modi the strength and will to counter the China-Pakistan Axis.

China's fixated obsession to impede India's rise as a Major Power on the global stage now finds expression in launching an all- out "Economic Warfare encompassing a wide domain of India's economic and trade activities.

The 'Trigger' for China's spurt in 'Economic Warfare" strategies against India, both direct and indirect, arises from two major economic factors. These are (1) India's fast-track economic progress towards emerging as global 'Third Largest Economy", and (2) India's emerging profile as a Global Manufacturing Hub' displacing China. 

China's global standings, with pretentions of being a Superpower, are severely dented with India's 'Ascendant Trajectory' on the global stage, taking the power sheen off China.

China's "Economic Warfare" against India has sharpened lately and encompasses (1) Recall of Chinese engineers involved in US/foreign companies projects in India (2) Stringent export restrictions selectively applied to Indian deals (3) Targeting India's needs for special fertilizers for agriculture (4) Restrictions on Indian imports from China of Rare Earths and magnets used in India's automobiles sector and space programs.

The above is only a brief list, and more selective restrictions against India are in the pipeline. China has reacted feverishly against items/entities which are driving Foreign Investors ay from China and relocate to India after initial lure of Vietnam.

The implications for India would be a temporary slowdown in some fields but not a total disruption. India seems to have prepared for this eventuality. Indian industry is already looking for alternative suppliers and the Modi Government is fast-tracking to fill the voids with self-reliant technologies/ supplies.

India also needs to adopt matching retaliatory "Economic Warfare" strategies against China with effect. These should include (1) No Chinese FDI in India and certainly not in electronics sector (2) Blanket ban on all Indian imports from China Imports from China be made selectively for short term (3) No purchase of indigenous defence items which have Chinese components (4) Service Sector not to be open for China and Chinese. No Chinese flights to India (5) Government should prohibit Indian tourists visiting China (6) Plug loopholes of Chinese good entering India through third countries or smuggling along land-borders with Nepal and Bangladesh.

Lastly, in tandem, India's millions-strong Netizens Army should organize a persistent and vocal "BOYCOTT CHINESE GOODS" by all Indians as patriotic duty.

INDIA'S 2025 GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVES TO PAUSE US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP AND QUAD SECURITY INITIATIVE

India's foreign policy cannot operate in frozen molds of past geopolitical constructs but be reset to keep pace with unfolding geopolitics. United States Trump 2.0 Administration transactional pivot to Pakistan in complete disregard of India's strategic sensitivities dictate geopolitical impetrative to press the "Pause Button" on US-India Strategic Partnership and the QUAD Security Initiative.

On Pakistan, US President Trump2.0 has given enough indicators in last five months of spinning past US strategic policies on its head. President Trump 2.0 "Sanctified Pakistan's State Sponsored Terrorism" against India and "Beatified Pakistan Army Chief as Patron Saint of Washington" during a White House lunch hosted for General Munir.

 Elected leaders of Pakistan were missing from the White House Lunch. Is President Trump 2.0 vying for a "Regime Change" in Pakistan?

On China, too, President Trump 2.0 has exhibited propensity to temporize with China's strategic inclinations in the pursuit of 'trade deals'.

On both counts stated above, President Trump2.0 has cavorted with India's implacable enemies which carry geopolitical and strategic costs for India.

It needs to be recalled that the underpinnings of the US-India Strategic Partnership spanning four US Presidents of different political dispositions was the joint convergence between the two Nations on the 'China Threat'.

Similarly, it was President Trump 1.0 who actively resurrected the dormant QUAD after eight years of dormancy.

Implicit for India in both Secuity Relationships was the hovering factor of the 'Pakistan Threat' being automatically taken care of by US-India convergences on the 'China Threat'.

In 2025, nothing has changed on the 'China Threat' persisting in threat perceptions of both United States and India. On the contrary, the 'China Threat' has assumed more alarming proportions.

President Trump 2.0 political strategies on China and Pakistan, going by his public utterances, betray that when the chips would be down, the United States Trump 2.0 Administration would give India a 'transactional pass'.

The hallmark of President Trump 2.0 is geopolitical signaling with strategic ambiguities and this applies to his current approaches to India.

The crucial question in mid-2025 is therefore as to whether to honor Indian commitments to past US Presidents on the US-India Strategic Partnership and the QUAD, no longer perceptionaly validated by President Trump 2.0 ongoing policy stances on Pakistan and China?

'It takes two to do a tango' is a well-known precept. When President Trump 2.0 wants to "Tango" with Pakistan and China, going by his political signaling, India should not foreclose its geopolitical options of being "frozen" in past commitments no longer appealing to President Trump 2.0

Concluding, India would be geopolitically and strategically wise in tapping the" Pause Button" on both the US-India Strategic Partnership and the QUAD.

US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP2.0: INDIAN STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT VISIBLY SETTING-IN 2025

US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership laboriously crafted over 25 years, with bipartisan support both in United States and India is visibly under strain in mid-2025, resulting from President Trump's insensitivity to Indian strategic sentiments, by pivoting back transactionally towards Pakistan, in middle of Indian OP SINDOOR overwhelming military success in decapitation of Pakistan. 

Perceptionally, India at large, its strategic community and its highly nationalistic Middle Class, are deeply incensed by President Trump's hyperbolic assertions on Pakistan, in wake of India's deep airstrikes against Pakistan's critical airbases including those noted as hosting Pakistan's nuclear weapons. 

Indian Government responses maintained dignified diplomatic silence letting TV visuals and media responses to project realities. However, sensing India's public opinion outrage at President Trump's invalidated assertions, PM Modi publicly asserted, without naming President Trump. that 'there was no third-party mediation.'

India at large was incensed when soon after India had struck Pakistan's nuclear strike bases, President Trump drew "Strategic Equivalence" between Pakistan and India. It was akin to President Trump drawing 'strategic equivalence between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah. Preposterous!!!

President Trump did not stop there. When Pakistan sued for ceasefire, soon after Pak airbases hosting nuclear weapons were struck, President Trump to garner self-acclaim, asserted that it was 'he' who had pressurized Pakistan and India for a ceasefire. The facts, as the world could see, are otherwise.

This leads to the crucial question as to why President Trump "reversed gears" at height of OP SINDOOR of initial US support for India's right to strike at terror threats?

Joining the dots, two US 'transactional tactically political expediency" motivations led to President Trump's "reversing gears " in support of Pakistan. The first was geopolitical, and the second motive borne out by media reports with Pakistani visuals related to Trump family high-level business deals with Pakistan hierarchy.

United States aware that it had convergent aims with Israel to strike at Iran's nuclear weapons strike capabilities foresaw the military eventualities of possible use of Pakistan as a springboard for US military intervention in Iran should a wider conflict escalate in the Middle East.

President Trump's family business interests seem to have come into play as the second motive played out by Pakistan media visuals. This related to his son and son-in-law's visit to Pakistan, coincidental in timings, with India's OP SINDOOR operations, wherein the Trump family business groups signed a multi-million crypto-currency deal with Pakistan. Pakistan visuals showed the Trump family with Pakistan Army Chief General Munir and Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif.

Concluding, while India has kept its commitments to the US-India Strategic Partnership "intact", the United States credibility as a "Reliable Strategic Partner of India" has come under severe perceptional strain in India.

Strategic course-corrections imperatives to contain growing denouement in India lies with the United States, specifically with President Trump to dispel perceptional misgivings his assertions have generated.

 

CHINA BIGGEST GEOPOLITICAL AND STRATEGIC LOSER IN INDIA'S MILITARY INCAPACITATION 'OP SINDOOR' STRIKES ON PAKISTAN MAY 2025: VENGEANCE FOLLOWS

 China perecptionally has suffered significant geopolitical and strategic losses in the wake of India's OP-SINDOOR incapacitating military strikes on Pakistan's 'Full Spectrum' offensive capabilities which rested on China-aided Nuclear Weapons, Chinese Combat Fighter Planes and China-installed Pakistan Air Defense Grid.

In one shattering blow, India's deep offensive Air Force strikes in Pakistan's Heartland of Punjab, had deflated Pakistan Army's bloated image of nuclear and conventional parity with Subcontinental India.

Pakistan's significant losses were both military and psychological.

 But China as Pakistan's preferred source of Pakistan's WMD and conventional arsenal suffered more significant perceptional geopolitical and strategic losses arising from Indian OP-SINDOOR military strikes on Pakistan.

Geopolitically, China's intrusive political and military stances in South Asia stand impacted because China failed to provide Pakistan with its 'Countervailing Power' to deter India from OP-SINDOOR crippling strikes on Pakistan's offensive capabilities.

South Asia Nations, both 'China-Clients' and 'Fence Sitters' would now need to recalibrate their playing the 'China Card' against India. If China could not stand actively in support of China's significant Chinese-aided 'Spoiler State" of Pakistan, would China actively support smaller South Asian States to withstand India's predominant military might?

China for long has financed and equipped Islamist Jihadi terrorist groups all over the world. In case of Pakistan, the Islamic Jihadi militias sponsored by Pakistan Army were not only aided by China materially but "protected" at United Nations from being UN-designated as Global Terrorists.

India's destruction of the Headquarters of these Pakistan Army proxy militias at Bahawalnagar and Muridke would be a sober deterrent to their terrorist operations against India.

Strategically, the myth of Chinese advanced military equipment superiority stands crumbled in wake of India's OP-SINDOOR offensive operations. Indian Air Force "pierced" through the array of Pakistan's Surveillance and Air Defense Grid to attack Pakistan Air Force Bases.

China-aided Pakistan Missiles were effectively foiled by India's indigenous Air Defense Grid. China's Advanced Fighter Planes of Pakistan Air Force were ineffective.

In short, China's weapon systems on which Pakistan's military staked its brinkmanship against India over decades, now stands crumbled.

Significantly, China is not going to take lying down its geopolitical and strategic losses emerging from OP-SINDOOR military strikes on Pakistan.

China rather than conceding India's military predominance in South Asia in wake of OP-SINDOOR would now with renewed vigor born out of vengeance would re-arm Pakistan, enhance its Air Force and AD Systems to whittle down India's military superiorities.

China would now redouble its military buildup of Bangladesh and prevent slippage of Nepal from its strategic orbit.

Concluding, surely, the Indian military establishment would be re-evaluating OP-SINDOOR operations and preparing itself for the next round.

India's next military round will be with China which will be itching to inflict losses on India in vengeance of its perceptional geopolitical and strategic losses suffered during OP-SINDOOR.

CHINA AND UNITED STATES CONVERGENT AIMS TO STRATEGICALLY CHECKMATE INDIA AT HEIGHT OF 'OP-SINDOOR' STRIKES ON PAKISTAN MAY 2025

Perceptually, China and United States betrayed their strategies of strategically checkmating India at the height of India's massive and decisive Indian Air Force counterstrikes on Pakistan air bases in retaliation for Pakistan escalating the conflict in early May 2025. 

India's OP-SINDOOR aerial strikes included damage to Pakistan Sargodha and Chaklala Air Bases which are Pakistan's nuclear weapons storage sites and Nuclear Command Authority.

China and United States may have different strategic reasons for checkmating India but their convergence to save Pakistan's strategic assets was glaringly out in the open. It is futile for Indian policy and strategic establishment to be in a state of denial that China is 'India's Enemy Number ONE' and uses Pakistan as a Chinese strategic force-multiplier against India.

So, China while adopting the optical strategy of advising' restraint' to both Pakistan and India, indulged in rushing military aid during the conflict.

But what was surprising and disappointing for India was the United States displaying convergent strategies with China in checkmating India. The United States disparaging remarks by US President Trump at the height of OP- SINDOOR strikes by India were damaging to future course of United States relations with India.

While the Modi Government has maintained a dignified silence on the subject of President Trump's uninvited and unwarranted claims of having 'mediated' a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, but Indian PM Modi publicly asserted for record that the United States had played no role in putting a ceasefire in effect.

It was Pakistan that ran to Washington seeking US help for a ceasefire. India rightly asserted that Pakistan route its 'ceasefire readiness through Pakistan Army DGMO on the 'Hot Line'.

One needs to dwell more on US President Trump's unwarranted assertions of drawing 'Strategic Equivalence' between India and Pakistan and equating the global stature of Indian P M Modi with PM Shahbaz Sharif of Pakistan which is in a mere  'Concubinage Relationship' with China.

President Trump has seemingly reverted US policy formulations on India to the 1990's when the United States 'Hyphenated' India and Pakistan in its approaches to the Indian Subcontinent.

Worse, many would not recall that in the US National Strategy Documents of that time, the United States asserted that it is the policy of United States 'To Prevent Emergence of Regional Hegemonistic States like China and India'.

Does the United States in 2025 perceives India as an 'Emergent Power' as having hegemonistic designs? 

Concluding, contextually, the United States has to publicly assert its perceptions on India post-OP SINDOOR. US President Trump has sowed misgivings and resentment in India by his callous and careless remarks on 'Strategic Equivalence' between India and Pakistan.

INDIA'S MAGNIFICENT BLITZKRIEG 'OP SINDOOR' MILITARY OPERATIONS (MAY25,2025 REDUCES PAKISTAN TO BEG FOR CEASEFIRE: GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT

India in a spectacular display of its Will to Use Power to uphold India's National Honour last week (May 7-10,2025) reduced Pakistan to beg for a ceasefire after India rapidly switched from its Limited War aims of 'Eliminating Pakistan's Proxy War Terrorism Capabilities' to the larger Strategic Aim of "Incapacitating Pakistan Army's War Waging Capabilities'.

India could achieve these War Aims within 72 hours of launching military offensives. India could achieve these remarkable decisive military victories with a rare combination of indomitable political leadership of PM Narendra Modi, his full faith in the synergy of integrated high-tech operations of Indian Army, Indian Navy and Indian Air Force, and more significantly by India's fast track War Preparedness in overdrive ever since 2014 when Modi Regime commenced.

The Indian media, both TV and print, carry exhaustive analyses of OP SINDOOR military operations against Pakistan. It is not the intention to repeat those details here.

What is being focused on in this Analysis is the geopolitical impact of India's unprecedented strategy and capability to conduct strategic blitzkrieg high-tech military offensives.

The above display of India's Will to Use Power and to 'Strike Deep' in Pakistan's Heartland of Pakistan Punjab and calling-off Pakistan's 'Nuclear Blackmail' has generated 'strategic ripples in United States, China and Russia.

All these three Major Powers will now have to study and analyze India's "Modi Doctrine" to recalibrate their strategic formulations on India's 'Power Trajectory'.

India's Prime Mimister Narendra Modi Enunciates "Modi Dctrine" in Strident Tones

In his Address to The Nation on May 12, 2025 after India's magnificent victory over Pakistan, PM Narendra Modi enunciated what can be termed as India's Monroe Doctrine.

 "Modi Doctrine" enunciates (1) India will strike back decisively at any acts of Terrorism attacks targeting India. (2) Terrorism acts against India will be deemed as 'Act of War' (3) India will also attack Countries/ Organizations facilitating Terrorist Attacks against India (4) India WILL NOT SUBMIT TO NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL from any quarter.

India Will Not Accept any Interference/Mediation on Any Aggresion by Pakistan.

PM Modi extending his Modi Doctrine also ruled out any mediation by Third Parties on issues bedeviling Pakistan's military confrontation against India.

Kashmir is a 'Non-Issue' for any external mediation. The only issue for India in this regard is Pakistan's vacation of its illegal occupation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

United States Needs More Prudence on Making Demands & Assertions on India

US President Trump in the 72 hours of India's decisive and battering strikes on Pakistan Air Force Bases and infrastructure displayed geopolitical callousness with his unwarranted assertions.

Initially supporting India's right to strike at Pakistan's Proxy Terrorism infrastructure, US President Trump suddenly reversed gears when Indian Air Force strikes hit Pakistan's nuclear-related air bases.

This leads me to question United States strategic motives. Does United States have a vested interest in keeping Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Arsenal intact and alive? Does this United States aim is an insurance to arrest India's rising Power Trajectory?

Further, US President Trump's callous political assertions drawing "Equivalence" between Indian PM Narendra Modi Sharif and Pakistani PM Shahbaz Sharif have incensed Indians.

PM Modi has evidently put United States on notice when he publicly refuted claims by President Trump that he mediated the ceasefire and that he is ready to mediate on Kashmir.

Post-OP SINDOOR , the United States will have to reset its political outlook. India will not accept any "Hyphenation" of India-Pak relations.

China Significamtly Impacted  by Indiia's 'Modi Doctrine & Failure of Chinese Advanced Weapons Systems Supplied to Pakistan

While United States has suffered perceptional losses by callous observations by US President, it is China which has been grievously impacted by India reducing Pakistan to its kness militarily within 72 hours.

The highly mythicized Chian-Pakistan Axis did not come into play in Pakistan's favor even when Indian Air Force Strikes virtually were hammering Pakistan Air Force Bases related to China-aided Pakistan's nuclear strike capabilities against India.

Pakistan's 82% Chinese military inventories of Chinese Air Defense Systems and advanced Chinese Fighter Aircraft could not stop Indian Air Force strikes including Sargodha and Chaklala, the heart of Pakistan's nuclear strike capabilities.

The second count of concern for China is India's demonstrated strategic strike capabilities deep within enemy territory, 'This coming after Dokalam and Galwan would keep Chinese military planners busy.

Whether China will reset India-policies or persist in reinforcing its geopolitical losses by overactive rearming of Pakistan Army will soon unfold.

Russia Seems to Have Played its Cards Well as India's OP SINDOOR  Offensives Were Underway

Russia made perceptional gains in India during the ongoing Pakistan's military confrontation with India. By its unambiguous support to India as opposed to United Staes meddlesome assertions during last week's India's offensives, Indian esteem for Russia has gone up.

The above needs to be seen in context of Russia being a strategically of China on the global stage.

India's spectacular military victories over Pakistan were enabled by Russian S 400 Air Defence Missiles which formed the backbone of India's defense grid, and which Pakistan could not penetrate by its advanced Chinese Fighter Aircraft even by firing its FATH Tactical Ballistic Missile aimed at New Delhi.

Russia is the only Major Power which has made geopolitical gains during the present War 

Israel and France Continue to be India's Reliable Statrtegic Partners.

Israeli anti-drone systems and French Rafale fighters and other missiles played a big part in India's strident 72 -hour victory over Pakistan.

Geopolitically, India should expand further its defense and security cooperation with France and Israel as it revamps its military machine after lesions drawn from this War.

Concluding Observations

India has undoubtedly emerged as the Regional Power in South Asia with demonstrated military prowess of striking swiftly and with devastating precision deep into Pakistan's Heartland,

United States and China would be well-advised to reset their strategic formulations on India's military rise as a Major Power capable of calling-off Nuclear Blackmail of its adversaries.

The "Modi Doctrine" should be seriously taken notice of by all Major Powers who should not interfere with India's 'natural balance f power 'in South Asia as the predominant power in the Indian Subcontinent.

 

  

INDIA'S STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES 2025 DICTATE COMPLETE INCAPACITATION OF PAKISTAN ARMY NOT MERELY DETERRENCE

India has reached a strategic tipping point in May 2025 wherein in wake of horrific Pahalgam Massacre of targeted 26 Hindu-killings bearing signature of Pakistan Army proxies' handiwork, it should be abundantly clear that India's earlier 'Deterrent Strategies' are no longer effective. 

India's strategic imperatives in May 2025 therefore now dictate a switch-over from 'Deterrence' to 'Complete Incapacitation of Pakistan Army' as the overriding aim of the Indian State. 

'Complete Incapacitation of Pakistan Army needs to be achieved by a comprehensive blueprint combining diplomatic and economic degradation of Pakistan followed by a final devastatingly crippling kinetic operations inflicted on Pakistan Army with full force of India's predominant military might.

India's PM Modi-led Government seems already on the above trajectory. Diplomatic Isolation of Pakistan with renewed vigor is already under way. 

 War by Economic Means has been applied by Modi Government on an unprecedented scale against Pakistan in terms of banning all trade with Pakistan and closure of Indian ports to Pakistani shipping.

 For the first time in India's political history, the Modi Government has suspended the Indus Water Treaty and stopped the flow of waters to Pakistan. This use of the 'water weapon' is having a devastating effect on Pakistan.

Pakistan and Pakistan Army is on a 'suspenseful edge' unable to decipher when India will strike with its full kinetic military force of all its three Services. This psychological attrition is weighing down heavily on the Pakistan Army which in tandem is internally besieged in Baluchistan by the armed attacks of Baluchistan Freedom Front. 

Pakistan's Western Front today is militarily besieged both in Baluchistan and Taliban Afghanistan incensed by expulsion of over a million Afghans living in Pakistan for decades.

Militarily, the picture is grim for Pakistan Army with both its Western and Eastern Fronts besieged and the prospects of an Indian Navy blockade of Karachi.

Within India too, Indian public opinion is clamoring for decisive military action against Pakistan Army to put an end to its proxy terrorism against India by Islamic Jihadi terrorist groups financed, armed and facilitated by Pakistan Army's ISI.

'Complete Incapacitation' of the Pakistan Army and defanging its missiles arsenal has now emerged in May 2025 as the overriding strategic imperative of India's Modi Government which has never shied away from robust military actions against India's enemies.

Of course, Pakistan will retaliate with military desperation inflicting damages on India too. But that has to be accepted if Pakistan Army as a potent threat to India's National Security is to be achieved. India has already put into operation Civil Defence measures. 

Now the big question is when India will apply its kinetic military force with full crippling force? 

Or is India awaiting Pakistan Army to undertake preemptive strikes on India to shift the onus of war on Pakistan Army?

Whatever be the case, the Fifth War with Pakistan is underway. The question is not 'if' but 'when'?

Concluding, this should be applied sequentially when India's 'War by Economic Means' is fully in 'Overdrive' inducing public unrest in Punjab and divisive fissures in Pakistan's polity and Pakistan Army. Indicators ae so emerging.

The overall aim should be to CRIPPLE PAKISTAN ARMY & ITS MILITARY ADVENTURISM!!! 

PAKISTAN'S STRATEGY OF ENLISTING MAJOR POWERS COUNTERVAILENCE AGAINST INDIA GEOPOLITICALLY INOPERATIVE IN 2025

Pakistan ever since its emergence as an independent nation with Partition of the Indian Subcontinent in 1947 by outgoing British colonial rulers has persistently confronted India militarily, adopting a strategy of enlisting "Major Powers Countervailence" geopolitical weightage.

This geopolitical weightage carried an element of 'poetical permissiveness' which enabled Pakistan to indulge in repeated wars against India coupled with Pakistan Army sponsored Islamic Jihadi terrorism against India.

Seventy-five years down the line since 1947, is a good enough timespan to objectively analyze whether Pakistan 's adoption of "Major Powers Countervailence Strategy" has enabled Pakistan to reap strategic dividends against India.

Pakistan sequentially banked in terms of Countervailing Power on Britain, the United States and then finally on Communist China. There were however overlaps amongst the Major Powers in providing countervailing power e.g. the convergence of United States and China in supporting Pakistan jointly. during the 1990s and till quite lately.

Pakistan's "Major Powers Countervailence Strategy" has failed as geopolitical realities in 2025 would indicate. The United States is today locked in a robust Global Strategic Partnership with India, China though continuing in military confrontation with India is politically reaching out to India since Galwan 2020 and  moreso now with Trump2:0 advent in United States and Britain does not count much.

Pakistan in 2025 presents the political picture of a 

'Dysfunctional State' tottering politically and economically. Chiefly, this arises from the economic costs of its unremitting military confrontation with India.

United States in earlier decades and China's ongoing heavy military support to Pakistan was corelated to their geopolitical objectives at a given point of time and not unlimited. 

 

Strategically ironic for Pakistan is that despite sizeable US military rearmament and China's buildup of Pakistan's nuclear and missiles arsenal, Pakistan could not militarily get the better of India in all the Wars that it launched in 1948, 1965, 1971 & 19999.

Pakistan however has refused to learn or strategically ignore the bitter lessons that passage of time has thrust on it. 

The megalomanic egos of Pakistan Army Chiefs and its Collegium of Corps Commanders empowered by possession of nuclear weapons has put them in a military trance that India is powerless in launching crippling military strikes against Pakistan.

The latest terrorism attack in Pahalgam in Kashmir Valley inflicted by Islamic Jihadi terrorists' affiliates of Pakistan Army resulting in loss of 30 Hindu lives should mark a 'Turning Point' for India to strike military blows to destroy Pakistan Army's military adventurism against India.

Lastly, The geopolitical environment in 2025   is in India's favor ruling out any significant provision of United States or China's "Countervailence Support" for Pakistan against India, should India militarily strike Pakistan Army and its infrastructure.

India should follow the Israeli maxim: 'When you have to strike the enemy, then strike hard with full crippling force'.

    

 and China

UNITED STATES AND CHINA LOCKED IN STEEP ESCALATORY CONFRONTATION APRIL 2025: THE ENDGAME?

 Communist China has long figured as a 'Prime Threat' in US strategic planning but a veneer of respectability and a halo of "Superpower-in-Making' was endowed by United States compelled by its 'Risk Aversion' strategy determined by then prevailing geopolitical imperatives.

The United States under both preceding US Administrations of Trump 1:0 and Biden Administration had switched over to 'Hard Line' policies against China in view of China escalating military tensions in Indo Pacific and the Dual Threat posed by the Russia-China Axis.

Contemporary global geopolitics in 2025 in Trump 2:0 era seems to have convinced President Trump to stop China from further undermining of US security and economic interests on realization of failure pf his 'Reverse Nixon' strategy with Russia

 In mid-2025, Communist China is facing a virtual existential crisis alongside with questions surfacing of the continuance in power of President Xi Jinping and the Communist Party. 

The above eventuality becomes analytically logical when China's backdrop of current bleak economic prospects coupled with growing political discontent against President Xi Jinping, indicated by uninterrupted purges of military hierarchy and CCP functionaries, are calculated. 

President Trump in April 2025 has struck Communist China with a massive Trade/Tariffs Wars sledgehammer blow at a time when China is engulfed in a critical economic crisis struggling with deflation, rising unemployment and flight of capital coupled with political dissent.

Contextually, with both the United States and China having adopted hardened policy trajectories, escalating by the day, the critical question that emerges is 'Who Will Blink First' to exit from the escalatory loop? United States or Russia? Further, what is United States endgame?

China had prepared itself for an intensified Trade War with President Trump 2:0, going by Trump 1:0 Trade War policies. But the scale of US intensification of imposing massive Tariffs swiftly may not have been foreseen by China.

Many policy analysts opine that President Trump's present economic offensive against China is a part of his 'bluff and bluster' strategy and that the US President will resile from this hard approach once China strikes a 'Deal' with United States on US terms.

In global geopolitics and geoeconomics many 'Grey Areas' are operative. Discounting them, the analysis gets confined to examining the basic factors of 'Intentions' and 'Relative Strengths' of China and the United States against the given backdrop of unfolding geopolitical dynamics.

On these two counts, today China is on a weaker wicket than the United States.

China can whip up 'Hyper Nationalism' sentiments against United States and resort to military escalation in Indo Pacific to offset President Trump's 'Economic Coercion' but presently President Xi Jinping's political existence is threatened, judging by his repeated purges of Chinese military hierarchy.

The United States is apparently prepared for the above eventuality going by recent US military moves in Western Pacific. 

If the odds are in favor of the United States and China is on a weaker wicket, then it is fair to assume that China could expectedly blink first by offering a partial' Sweet Deal' to President Trump.

Ongoing Chinese retaliatory economic strikes against United States and vocal assertions by President Xi Jinping suggest to the contrary.

China too is hardening its confrontational stances in near equal measure. Obviously, because the very political existence of President Xi Jinping in power in Beijing is at stake.

What is then the 'End Game' of the United States against Communist China and its President Xi Jinping? 

Logical analysis would suggest that with China's ongoing economic and strategic vulnerabilities the US endgame is to bring about the demise of Communist China and its all too powerful President Xi Jinping. 

That is the only way in which the United States can neutralize the 'China Threat' actively operative against the United States since 2001 and proactively since 2013 with President Xi Jinping becoming President.

Wishful thinking? Not really. Historical precent exists.

The United States brought about the disintegration of the mighty Communist Superpower--the Soviet Union, by first inflicting an 'Arms Race' (Reagan Years and thereafter) and then struck the final blow by economically pulling the rug from under an economically vulnerable USSR President Gorbachev. Rest is history.

While the United States may have recently brought about discordant notes with its Allies in Europe and Pacific, the nuances may have changed, but the overall value of US Alliance relationship will endure and be operative in the final showdown with China.

China has no "Natural Allies" to boast of. Ironic, because North Korea has gravitated to Russia and Pakistan is wooing United Stat.

China is at critical crossroads where whatever steps China takes either to exit the 'Escalatory Loop' with the United States. or gamble by imposing an armed conflict in Western Pacific, CHINA DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE ANY 'WIIN /WIN OPTIONS!!