RUSSIA-CHINA AXIS 2025: STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT UNDERWAY?

The Russia-China Axis of the two Communist Giants did not emerge from any strong Communist ideological bonds but from a single point strategic convergence of checkmating United States global predominance with this strategic convergence intensity varying from China's side depending on state of US-China relations.

Strategic denouement between Russia and China seems to be underway, chiefly, in the wake of Russia's lack of military success in its war on Ukraine and China not rising up to the occasion to reinforce Russia's war efforts.

China seems to have perceptively failed in supporting Russia in the much publicized "No Limits" strategic partnership as other than geopolitical support, China seems to have not provided Russia with any substantial lethal military aid that could have turned the tide in Russia's complete military success. 

China could have aided Russia with tanks, artillery equipment and drones from China's massive inventories.

Russia had to turn to North Koea and Iran for lethal war supplies to add punch to its offensive strikes in   Ukraine.hina

Norh Korea's military aid to Russian War in Ukraine was both in terms of fire-power ammunition supplies and more notably sending a much-needed contingent of 10,000 North Korean troops to aid Russian war effort. Russia is woefully short of military manpower.

China expectedly as a 'No Limits' strategic partner of Russia should have aided Russia with its military manpower. China did not do so. North Korea did so.

Iran has provided Russia with hundreds of hard-hitting military drones which have provided Russia with coercive devastation power. Why was China reluctant to do so?

China sustained Russia's Ukraine War by buying Russian oil supplies at dirt cheap rates but that too is waning as reports indicate that a dozen Russian 'Shadow Oil Tankers' anchored off the Chinese Coast are not being allowed to off-load oil supplies at Chines ports.

China has 'shied-off 'fearful of additional US sanctions which prohibit countries buying oil from Russia to drawback Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

China has been fearful in terms of global reactions to any unreserved Chinese military support to Russia. Indicators at the beginning of 2025 point towards China's 'rethink' on its 'No Limits' military aid to Russia.

The other major reason for China's reluctance for limitless military aid to Russia can be analyzed as China's decision not to deplete its military inventories by preserving them for a possible 'War with Unite States' over Taiwan.

In Conclusion, it can be analytically asserted that besides many other pinpricks in Russia-China strategic relations, China's lack of lethal military aid to Russia in its Ukraine War may mark the 'tipping point' for a strategic denouement in the Russia-China Axis with profound impact on global geopolitics.

 partnership

PHILIPPINES SQUARELY IN UNITED STATES STRATEGIC FOLD 2025: OUTGOING US PRESIDENT BIDEN'S SIGNIFICANT FOREIGN POLIC ACHIEVEMENT

United States most significant foreign policy achievement under outgoing US President Biden was to induce the Philippines to squarely re-pivot to the American strategic fold after years of cavorting with Communist Chinese rulers in Beijing under previous Filipino President Duterte.

The Philippines hosted two major US military bases in the Philippines earlier --Subic Bay Naval Base and Clarkes Air Force Base. United States was asked to remove its Military Bases in 1991 when the Philippines Senate voted against US military bases.

Thereafter, limited US-Philippines security ties were kept in existence under the 'Visiting Forces Agreements' in various forms.                

This resulted in a serious military void in the US-crafted security architecture in Western Pacific as these two US Bases were critical 'springboard points' for United States to deter Communist China from invasion of Taiwan and also Forward Military Bases for any US military intervention against Mainland China.

Philippines losses were heavy in terms of domestic economy which thrived on a large US Forces presence in the country.

Geopolitically, the Philippines did not gain anything by its period of flirtation with Communist China, a fact which previous President Duterte realized belatedly at the end of his term.

In 2025, the US Military Bases picture has changed with United States under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr having granted permission to United States not only to return in force to erstwhile five US Military Bases but to establish two additional US Military Bases in the North.

In tandem, joint US-Philippines Military Exercises have intensified to endure more military inter-operability between the two countries.

Notably, Japan, India and Australia as QUAD Security Initiative members are supplementing the US-led military capacity building of the Philippines to withstand Communist China's political and military coercion over China's festering dispute over the Scarborough Shoals in the South China Sea.

India significantly, has sold Three Batteries of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles which add greatly to Philippines deterrent power against Communist China aggression. Discussions are reported to be underway for additional BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles and other Indian military equipment. Security ties are intensifying.

Japan is intimately involved in enhancing the security profile of the Philippines both in cooperation with the United States and also on its own. Japan- Philippines "Reciprocal Access Agreement" permits both nations to use each other's military bases thereby integrating security mechanisms of bath nations.

Japan too is providing military equipment to the Philippines in addition to various training programs. 

 Philippines also has an "Enhanced Defence Cooperation Program" with Australia which focuses on maritime security and counterterrorism.

While Japan and Australia have long-standing security ties with the Philippines under the aegis of the US security template to counter China, the entry of India as a 'security provider' to Philippines is a recent envelopment and intensifying.

India stands out in terms of providing 300 km range BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles to the Philippines in a glaring & military geopolitical signaling to China.

Highlighting needs to be done that in 2025 what strikes analytically is that besides the bilateral security arrangements with the Philippines, all Four Nations of QUAD are engaged in enhancing the military capacity-building of the Philippines against Chinese aggression.

Concluding, it needs to be emphasized that the strategic location of the Philippines astride the vital sea-lanes of communication traversing the South China Sea over which China claims 'dubious sovereignty' are critical for Indo Pacific security. 

Philippines security can be guaranteed not by Communist China intent on military adventurism in the region, but, by United States and the QUAD Nations--a fact now registered by the Philippines.