UNITED STATES AND INDO PACIFIC SECURITY GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVES 2025

United States is likely to face serious geopolitical challenges as 2025 dawns, bringing into office President Donald Trump for a second time after a lapse of four years, during which global and Indo Pacific strategic configurations stand drastically changed, because of the emergence of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Quartet, in the wake of Russian Invasion of Ukraine, which I would like to term as the "CRIN Quartet".

China, Russia and North Korea are located in Western Pacific while Iran lies at the margins of the United States Indo Pacific security template. All four of these are Nuclear Powers with Ballistic Missiles arsenals. All of these four Nuclear Powers are in conflictual/adversarial confrontation with the United States.

In Trump 1:0 Administration, two strands seem to have been adopted by President Trump. Normalization of relations with Russia and North Korea and secondly, putting China under strategic pressures via Trade Wars with simultaneous reinforcement of QUAD as an effective deterrent against Chinese military adventurism.

CRIN Quartet was non-existent during President Trump's first term. It was only the Russia-China Axis that was operative.

Normalization between United States & Russia and United States & North Korea did not make any headway, despite President Trump's concerted drive. 

United States relations with China hardened under President Trump during his previous term. as a result of Trade Wars initiated by him.

Since then, and on eve of President-elect Trump's 2025 inauguration of his second Presidency, significant geopolitical changes have taken place posing grave challenges not only to Indo Pacific security but also with Indo Pacific US-hostile Powers--- China and North Korea, getting actively involved in European conflicts by their military and troops manpower support to Russia.

This new linkage of IndoPacific security to European security will now be a strategic challenge for President Trump.

President Trump ca ill-ignore US imperatives of Indo Pacific security nor can European security be allowed to be diluted by any US compromises under President Trump with Russia.

Iran too has got involved in European conflicts by providing sizeable supplies of "Drones' for Russia's stalled military operations in Ukraine. Iran's collaboration of Western Pacific Powers hostile to United States is an additional challenge.

The above two new complex geopolitical challenges to United States with deep strategic implications cannot be met by President Trump with 'linear solutions'.

United States China-policy stances, under outgoing President Biden, unexpectedly and unprecedently, "HARDENED" against China, including a first-ever United States policy assertion dismissing China's 'sovereignty' over China Occupied Tibet.

United States under outgoing President Biden stood more strongly behind Taiwan against China and the military buildup of the Philippines, including establishment of two additional US military bases, which could be used for against China.

Contextually, therefore, incoming US President Trump on January 20, 2025, has little strategic bandwidth to overturn the existing geopolitical and security templates of 'Hard Policies ' on China put into place during 2020-24.

Then, China only, was the Prime Threat to United States and Indo Pacific security. In 2025, President Trump in his second term, President Trump has now to contend with the crystallization of the "CRIN Quartet", comprising China, Russia, Iran and North Korea----all Nuclear Powers.

If Iran and North Korea can get militarily involved in Europe, aiding Russia in its military operations against US-aided Ukraine, what is the guarantee that in any US-China War in Indo Pacific, Iran and North Korea would not actively supplement Chinese war-efforts against United States?

Therein lies President Trump's most significant geopolitical and military challenge as he enters office in January 2025.

 Ending Ukraine War by President Trump, as per his election promise, by pressurizing Ukraine to submit to President Putin's conditions, would not lessen security challenges to Indo Pacific security with entry of CRIN Factor in the strategic calculus against the United States, dominated by China.

Russian President Putin in a "pay-back" gesture to China, would be obligated to support China's invasion of Taiwan plans underway. Russia would then be more obligated to China than the United States.

During his second term, President Trump would have to face the likely contingency of China's long -stalled military invasion of Taiwan. Even as per US-estimates China has been assessed to invade Taiwan by 2027.

United States under President Trump 2:0 would have no options but to pursue the 'Hard Line' China-policy policy formulations in existence in 2024. 

President Trump's declared policy of 'Making America Great Again' (MAGA) forecloses United States options to go soft on China, as United States submitting meekly to Chinese invasion of Taiwan would mark the "US-Eit" from Western Pacific.

Concluding, the major observation that needs to be made is that ever since 1949 when Communist China emerged with belligerent overtones, United States China-policies of 'Engagement', Congagement', 'Competitor', 'Delinking' and 'Derisking' have failed to motivate China to emerge as a 'Responsible Stakeholder' in regional and global security.

In 2025, perspectives suggest that the United States not only has to deal with China as   the Prime Threat to United States security and Indo Pacific security but also an enlarged and intensified hostile CRIN Quartet.

 

   

 

RUSSIA PERCEPTIONALLY A 'DECLINING POWER' IN END-2024; GLOBAL STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

Russia in end-2024 as a 'Contending Power' of the United States is in a critical 'Power Decline' arising from debilitating geopolitical, military and economic consequences ensuing from its ill-fated and unprovoked military Ukraine Invasion in 2022, coupled with loss of Syria from Russian orbit and Israel's neutering Iranian Proxies, Hamas & Hezbollah. 

Regardless of an outright victory over Ukraine or of any peace settlement brokered by incoming US President Trump, Russia would sill continue be a 'Declining Power' as in either eventuality Russia's 'Power Losses' would be staggering.

Russia as a 'Declining Power' raises severe global and regional strategic implications in an already unpredictable and uncertain global strategic landscape.

Globally, at the apex level, China would love to and daresay, been striving to replace Russia as the main 'Contending Power' of the United States, ever since US President Obama in his tenure floated the dubious concept of "Global Dyad" of United States and China to manage global security.

China's ambitions in this direction in 2024 run into two serious obstacles in terms of fructifying. President Obama had to face serious opposition globally to his expounded concept.  Global geopolitics since then have taken a 360degree turn.

The first, Russia even as a 'Declining Power' and despite its strategic nexus of Russia-China Axis may not cede the prized slot to China. Russian President Putin's declared objective of Russia as an 'independent power center' would still be operative.

Russian geopolitics may take somersaults to prevent Russia being reduced to a China strategic satellite. 

Secondly, China in 2024, is in adversarial confrontation with the United States. China in the American strategic calculus is no longer an asset. This perspective may get further negative for China if US President-Elect Trump implements his Putin-friendly policies, now with an overwhelming political majority, coupled with intensified US-China Trade Wars and military confrontation in Western Pacific.

Coming to United States, perceptionally, United States under President Trump may see more merit in a US-Russia Global Dyad as opposed to Obama's US-China Dyad for global security management.

In terms of implications for 'Second Tier' Powers like Europe and India, the implications would be more diverse.

In 2024, Europe is in grip of severe military threat perceptions of 'Russian Westward Creep' following Ukraine Invasion and Russian President Putin's threatening assertions to that effect peeved by European Nations military aid to Ukraine.

European Nations can therefore be expected to wish for Russia as a 'Declining Power'.

India as an Emerged Power with considerable military & economic strengths in 2024 is now a 'Consequential Player' in global security.

 Russia's 'Power Decline' has two consequential implications for India. Firstly, strictly in the Russia-India context and secondly in the US-Russia-India context.

Even despite the Former USSR disintegration, India perceived Russia having some considerable countervailing influence on China in terms of its adversarial stances against India. That could wither considerably with Russia's 'Power Decline'.

In the second context, many variables would come into play dependent on how US-Russia relations unfold in next four years.

Likely 'reset' of United States policies favoring Russia to preempt or slow-down its 'Declining Trajectory' would be a gain for India. India with its established good relations with Russia supplemented by a substantive United States-India Strategic Partnership would be a strong existentialist counterweight to a belligerent China.

Should United States under President Trump elects to not reset its Russia policies, and Russia even on its own volition does not geopolitically arrest its power decline, then Russian dependency on China gets intensified, resulting in adverse scenarios for India.

Russia's 'Declining Power' trajectory has implications for India's security interests in the strategic Middle East and Indo Pacific Regions too. The existing Indian foreign policy templates in these vital regions would need to be recalibrated to manage China filling-in the Russian void.

Concluding, the striking fact that so emerges from the above analysis is that both the United States and India, for their respective security interests, have a vested interest in arresting Russia's 'Declining Power' so as to preempt emergence of a militant China to emerge as the sole 'Contending Power' of the United States, reigning in a highly polarized bipolar world.

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC GRIP IN MIDDLE EAST UNRAVELS IN END-2024 AND ITS IMPICATIONS

 Symptomatic of Midde East geopolitical churning, Russia's strategic grip in the Middle East in end-2024 has visibly unraveled with decades-old Russia-Iran propped Syrian President Bashar al Assad's lightening overthrow last week, and Israel's military decapitation of Russian-backed Iranian Proxy Militias, namely Hamas and Hezbollah.

Symptomatic of Middle East's rapidly changing geopolitical equations was that Turkey, an erstwhile strong supporter of Russia, spearheaded the blitzkrieg HTS Militias drive from Aleppo to Damascus to bring about a regime-change in Damascus.

Turkey now in direct cross-purposes with Russia has emerged as the kingmaker in Syria.

Syria was a critical component of Russian President Putin's strategy of establishing a powerful presence in Middle East geopolitical power-play against United States predominant sway over the Middle East.

Syria under President Bashar Assad, (since deposed and given political asylum in Russia) hosted a Russian Navy Base at Tartus and a Russian Air Force Base near Latakia. Both these bases in Syria enabled Russian strategic leverages not only in Middle East but also East Mediterranean Region.

Latest satellite imagery suggests that Russia is drawing back its Syrian military presence but has yet not abandoned ts military bases.

Syria also played a significant role in Russia's Middle East strategy in the Iranian context. Needless to recall that Iran has evolved as a crucial 'Centerpiece' in Russia's Middle East geopolitical powerplay.

Syria was the main conduit for funneling Iranian and Russian arms and military wherewithal to Hamas and Hezbollah constantly waging war against Israel.

Coinciding with Syrian President's sudden fall, Isreal launched military incursions into Syria against Syrian military bases funneling aid to Hanas and Hezbollah.

Contextually, in end-2024, Russia's strategic blueprint for a grip on Middle East powerplay stands unraveled.

Russia not abandoning its two major military bases in Syria, even after overthrow of President Assad's downfall, creates unpredictable implications. It indicates that Russia will attempt to temporize with HTS rebels to negotiate retention of its Syrian bases.

On the other hand, reports indicate that the HTS regime in Damascus is apprehending that Iran will initiate "Revenge Attacks" on Syria to re-establish its "Conduits" for aid to Hamas and Hezbollah.

Russia could be in a Catch-22 situation whether in above context to aid Iran or forget retention of its Syrian military bases.

Isreal, undoubtedly, can be expected to thwart any Iranian military attempts to re-establish its 'aid-corridors' to Hamas and Hezbollah, through Syria,

United States can be expected to support Isreal tacitly on the above count and also contrive that any new stable Syrian regime that emerges is US-friendly and demands Russian abandonment of its Syrian military bases.

In Conclusion, events are moving on the above lines, though, the "Geopolitical Fog" could trigger unintended consequences. Despite this, what is certain that Russia's grip in Middle East has unraveled and would take years to be re-implanted again, especially in Levant. 

MIDDLE EAST SMOULDERING GEOPOLITICAL CAULDRON: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY

India's foreign policy in the Middle East of fine balancing of global and regional geopolitical dynamics stands greatly unraveled by the October 2023 events which in its wake has not only spawned a major war between Israel and Iran aided by its Proxy Militias but has also mired the Middle East in collateral conflicts, like the Syrian Civil War, sharpening the bipolar global divide.

The Syrian Civil War is heading towards a regime overthrow of the Russia and China backed Syrian President. This would rob Russia of its only military toehold in the Middle East. Russia can be expected to trigger another regional conflict to reattain its military bases in Syria.

 Sharp geopolitical divides between the Russia-Iran-China Axis backing Iranian proxies like Hamas & Hezbollah and Iran's Direct Attacks on Israel, and United States solidly backed Israel, with tacit backing of some Arab regimes. 

The unprecedented devastation and bloodshed of the Middle East in 2024 has surpassed the two Gulf Wars interventions by the United States. of the 1990s and 2001.

The advent of President Trump's ascension to power in January 2025 in all probability could sharpen the global and regional political divides, notwithstanding President Trump's good relations with Russian President Putin.

India's foreign policy planners in 2025 will have to contend with the implicit aim of Rusia- China Axis to dislodge United States from the Middle East, using Iran's fifty-year-old hostility to wipe out Israel and the United States, as the spearhead.

Contextually, can India jettison the US-India Strategic Partnership nurtured since 2000? Can India afford to work at cross-purposes with United States security interests in the Middle East under challenge by the Russia-China Axis? Does the unfolding geopolitical dynamics in Middle East extend India the strategic bandwidth to fine balance its policies in the widening bipolar divide?

The answer to all of the above critical questions is a BIG NO!

 At the regional level similar geopolitical interlocking questions need to be asked by Indian foreign policy planners to themselves.

 Can India afford to abandon Israel which has stood by India in all of India's Wars since 1971? Can India be a party to Iran's relentless "War of Isreal Extinction"? Is it advisable for Indian foreign policy to be predicated to 'Hedging Strategies' being undertaken by some major regional Powers?

Here too, the answer is a BIG NO!

Concluding, if all the answers to the pertinent and critical geopolitical questions impacting India's foreign policy are in the 'Negative', then obviously a 'rethink' and 'reset' of the fundamentals of Indian foreign policy in the Middle East is an IMPERATIVE.

Finally, when India's Middle East foreign policy since 2014 stands predicated on India's geopolitical imperatives, unhinged from domestic vote banks politics, churning geopolitical cauldron in Middle East, demands revised perspectives.

CHINA'S ENDLESS PURGES OF MILITARY HIERARCHY BY PRESIDENT XI JINPING IS MANIFSTATION OF ONGOING POWER-STRUGGLE

Chinese President Xi Jinping's endless purges in China's military hierarchy ongoing for more than two years can realistically be analyzed only in two ways. Either the Chinse Armed Forces military hierarchy has become unprecedently "Corruption-Ridden" or corruption is only a fig-leaf excuse coined by the Chinese President as a coverup to hide a relentless "Power Struggle" against him.

China resultantly. in this process can be perceived as becoming 'Strategically Vulnerable,' on either count, with serious implications not only for China, but also with wider regional and global implications.

"Corruption Ridden" military hierarchy is akin to China having a paralyzing brain-tumor which can bring about policy-paralysis. It also is a blot on the ideological purity of the monolithic Chinese Communist Party which controls China, and reputed to be under firm control of President Xi Jinping. 

The above is also a serious reflection on Chinese President Xi Jinping's leadership qualities on two counts. Inability to select impeccable Chinese military hierarchy, or worse, having selected his political favorites, they are turning against him.

On both counts, China's much vaunted strategic might is open to question, as possession of an oversized military machine without impeccable military leadership is no guarantee of military effectiveness.

The "Power-Struggle" interpretation of purges of Chinese military hierarchy seems more plausible as manifestation of growing opposition to President Xi Jinping's iron-fist rule ever since 2013, when he captured both the levers of political and military control of Chinese Armed Forces.

 Purges in China's military hierarchy is not something new and certainly not for President Xi Jinping. It needs to be recalled that in his initial stages of capturing military control nearly 200 purges had taken place.

The present purges of two Defense Ministers, Rocket Forces hierarchy and now the Navy Admiral, heading the Political Affairs Department of the Central Military Commission a, comes at an ominous time, contextually.

Contextually, China today is battling a staggering decline in Chinese economy, widespread unemployment and domestic unrest/ protests are increasing. President Xi Jinping's leadership is obviously going to being increasingly questioned. 

China's external geopolitical and security environment is also hostile resulting from Chinese President's 'Hard Power 'policies.

Joining the above dots, dangers of a domestic political implosion in China cannot be ruled out,

Regionally, the most serious implications arise for countries on China's disputed land peripheries which can become targets of military escalation by a beleaguered Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Reflected by me in my earlier posts is that a 'Thaw" in China-India relations is a myth. Present conciliatory outreaches by Chinese President are "transactional" triggered by geopolitical compulsions. India could be the first major target for a beleaguered Chinese President to divert domestic unrest attention.

Globally, China's political implosion changes the entire 'Balance of Power' template, especially in the Indo Pacific. A Chinese Implosion could unravel the Russia-China Axis and seriously impact the adversarial postures of Russia in Europe and against the United States.  

Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Establishment are counting a lot on incoming US President Trump's 'transactional impulses' for softer US' China-policies.

Concluding observation, emerging from the above, is that even if US President Trump would be so inclined, he cannot prevent "China's Implosion" triggered by what appears to be a power-struggle by Chinese military hierarchy against him.