UNITED STATES POLITICAL WILL CAN BE GRAVELY TESTED IF CHINA LAUNCHES MILITARY INVASION OF TAIWAN

China's military invasion of Taiwan has been an ongoing reality whose imminence in 2023 acquires a menacing urgency for China post-Ukraine and the 'Strategic Hemming-in' of China generated by United States crafted China-centric security architecture in Western Pacific and Indo Pacific Region as a whole.

China's response on the rebound focusses on a two-pronged strategy against the United States-led security alliances and groupings like QUAD & AUKUS.

China's exponential military upgradation and honing of its war-waging capabilities is also accompanied by Hybrid Warfare of creating domestic political turbulence in USA, Japan & and also drive wedges/ uncertainties between United States and Major allies and partners like Japan, Australia and India.

China's 'Military Invasion' of Taiwan is a "CERTAINTY' which cannot await US military estimates that China will only be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Analytically, it is assessed, that in 2023, the United States has in place military deployments and strength both of its own and that of its Allies, to thwart China's invasion plans of Taiwan and should China does invade Taiwan in a lightning strike, the United States can militarily force China to recoil.

The United States Armed Forces have prevailed in all wars of 20th & 21st Centuries and where victories were denied like in Vietnam and Afghanistan, it was due to lack of American 'Political Will' and 'Political Micro-management' of military operations by Washington civilians, as often reflected in my past writings.

The crucial question in 2023 is therefore whether the United States can display the 'Political Will' should China impulsively launch military invasion of Taiwan anytime now? 

Many imponderables prevail, but the United States has traditionally shown remarkable resilience to take 'Hard Decisions'.

In 2023 and months to follow the United States 'Political Will' is likely to be tested gravely as China's President Xi Jinping inpelled by his'Great China Dream' unwiitingly provokes the United States strategic forbearance.

Notwithstanding the above, Major Asian Powers and in capitals of the Indo Pacific Region there is an 'Expectancy' that the United States should not await being prodded by China but act decisively to exhibit its resolve as China like all bullies undrstands only the language of force applied with firm resolve.

As an initial display of United States 'Political Will' the US President should declare that America's "ONE-CHINA POLICY IS DEAD" and that Taiwan is a Sovereign Country !!!

PHILIPPINES PIVOTS BACK TO UNITED STATES IN 2023 DUE INTENSIFYING CHINA THREAT

Significant for Indo Pacific Security against the pervasive China Threat in the region, the Philippines belatedly has made a pivot back to the United States security architecture in the Western Pacific. 

The Philippines under new President Marcos Jr has granted United States access to a total of nine military bases against five earlier.

In 1992, the Philippines Senate by a majority of "one vote' only ended the lease of US major military bases at Subic Bay Naval Base and Clarkes Air Force Base where more than 20,000 US miliary personnel were based permanently in return for sizeable US economic aid.

By 1998, Philippines revised its stance. Without giving permanent bases it signed agreements with United States for rotational 'Visiting Forces' access to five bases both for rotational presence and Joint Military Exercises.

During this 30 years gap, the Philippines was trying to balance its relations with China sitting menacingly on its doorsteps.

China tried its best to drive a wedge between United States and Philippines by trade and economic inducements. China also focused subtly on Filipino sensitivities on national sovereignty. It seems to have worked for China for some years.

China in tandem however did not restrain its aggressive impulses in occupying Filipino Islands/Reefs in South China Sea and other maritime encroachments in Filipino maritime domains.

This was markedly so after 2012 with ascendancy of Xi Jinping as President of China. Due to Filipino domestic political dynamics the looming China Threat stood relegated in national security policy.

The Philippines new President Marcos Jr soon after assuming office paid a visit to China. Seemingly, President Marcos Jr returned convinced that in interests of Filipino national security interests against intensifying China Threat, it would be prudent for the Philippines to pivot back to United States security fold.

The Philippines finally recognized that the Nation's security against the China Threat could best be secured by an unambiguous pivot back to United States strategic fold.

The strategic spin-off has been a significant rebound for United States Rotational Military Presence in Philippines where now against the earlier access to five bases, the United States will have now access to four more military bases.

Reportedly, these additional four bases are in North Philippines facing Taiwan and disputed South China Sea Islands.

The United States makes significant geopolitical and strategic gains with Philippines granting access to a total of nine military bases for US Military Forces.

The Philippines stands to gain strategically and economically with its pivot back to United States fold shedding its strategic ambiguities. Surely, greater US financial assistance will flow-in.

In tandem, countries like Japan would also follow suit by enhancing security and economic relations with the Philippines. In fact, Japan has been involved in 'Capacity Building' of the Philippines Navy. 

The United States regains its strategic salience in the Philippines national security calculus in relation the China Threat which has now heated up for the Philippines.

The United States gains geopoliticallly also in that its Western Pacific Outer Perimeter now becomes more security tight and politically robust.

The United States by enhanced accesses to nine military bases in the Philippines is afforded a higher military profile to deal with China-generated 'Explosive Flash Points' in South China Sea and China's brinkmanship on Taiwan Invasion.

Obviously, due to security reasons no firm details of the new Agreement stand released by United States nor the Philippines, but it can be analyzed that United States would gain greater access to establish advanced surveillance and intelligence gathering facilities against China.

The United States can also be expected to pre-position military equipment for contingencies in relation to Taiwan and South China Sea.

China has obviously expressed its deep concerns in Philippines granting increased access to United States to military bases in Filipino territory.

China can be expected to raise turbulence in the South China Sea as in more ways than one China's attempted 'Full Spectrum Dominance' in South China Sea is that much neutralized.

In passing, it needs to be highlighted that Philippines is aware that China Threat is "Real", maybe not an outright military invasion, but manifesting in terms of political and military coercion. Notably, India has contracted to supply three batteries of BRAHMOS Missiles to the Philippines.

Overall, in geopolitical and strategic terms it is a significant gain for US-led Indo Pacific security template.