INDIA AND INDO PACIFIC SECURITY---STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES MUST PREDOMINATE GEOPOLITICAL BALANCING

'Geopolitical Balancing' has long been the forte' of the Indian policy establishment but with global geopolitics heavily polarized post-Ukraine Invasion by Russia, no policy spaces exist for geopolitical balancing by India between the United States-led Indo Pacific security order and the much-crystallized Russia-China Axis.

India in 2023 has to make fateful choices wherein Indian policy establishment needs to give a pass to geopolitical balancing between two opposing Power Blocs now set on path of armed confrontation and let more critical strategic imperatives be determinants of India's policy postures.

The Russia-China Axis is now an established strategic reality and cannot be wished away. In terms of India's policy formulations, India long depended on Russia as a trusted friend to prevail over China for restraint in escalation of military confrontation on India's Norhtern Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

Russia with an utter political and economic dependency on China and which dependency is likely to intensify is decreasingly ineffective as an existential countervailing influence on China.

Russia-India relations can be said to have entered a phase of strategic denouement in which both sides have lost most of the strategic convergences which prevailed in earlier decades, markedly so, as the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership has acquired substantial contours.

Today, the picture prevailing is that the United States and India share more strategic convergences on global issue and regional threats, than India shares with Russia.

The United States growingly perceives India as a pivotal strategic partner where with growing 'Strategic Trust', the United States sees merit in giving India access and sharing even 'Critical Technologies' besides designating India as a 'Preferred Strategic Partner'.

Can India therefore persist in continuing to be a member of US-led QUAD and China-dominated SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) at the same time when both are patently Security Groupings strategically aimed at each other?

Can India afford to remain as Member of BRICS wherein India stands singly alone with Russia, China, and South Africa beholden to each other to the extent of Joint Naval Exercises in the Indian Ocean Rim?

Strategic Reality Check would suggest an emphatic NO as the answer. India should therefore dispense with its SCO and BRICS affiliations.

Contextually, therefore, India has critical policy challenges of shedding the ambiguities that plague Indian policymaking, in which " Neutral Stances or Strategic Non-Alignment or Non-Alignment 2.0 are NO LONGER VALID CHOICES"

Concluding, it is strongly emphasized that India as an aspiring Major Global Power must not be seen as 'dithering' in terms of its capability of making 'Hard Strategic Choices'.

India in 2023 is a 'Natural Ally" of the West led by United States and which has in its fold Major West European Nations, Japan, Australia and South Korea with which India has forged Strategic Relationships. 

India' by its demonstrated policy preferences of last two decades has vividly thrown its lot as 'Natural Ally' of the West and should firmly stick to this course otherwise India with its perceived policy ambiguities in the unpredictable global churning currently in play could end up as a strategic loser.     

 

Tod

  

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC DIMINUTION POST UKRAINE IMBROGLIO: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Russia in early 2023 stands diminished in global stature--geopolitically, militarily and economically, after one year of being stalemated in its 'War of Choice' needlessly inflicted on Ukraine by President Putin. This raises grave implications for Indo Pacific security and global security too.

Strategically diminished Russia now stands reduced to utter geopolitical, military and economic dependency on China --the only Major Power extending Russia political and economic support besides funneling military ad for Russian war effort through Third Parties.

Russia's strategic dependency on China which hovers over the Indo Pacific in terms of 'China Threat' topping Threat Perceptions generates significant geopolitical and security dynamics impacting the whole region.

 In global geopolitics, in the pre-Ukraine Invasion period, Russia with its erstwhile Superpower credentials towered above China. The position is now changing.

Russia in 2023 is slipping into a secondary geopolitical position below China. This trend is likely to accentuate as Rusia finds itself more stalemated in Ukraine and Russa's dependency on China becomes more comprehensive.

The dynamics so generated from the above evolving eventuality in Indo Pacific is that China emerges in the pole position in the China-Russia Axis confronting the United States& Allies and Strategic Partners.

In other words, China does not have to share "Strategic Space" in Indo Pacific Region with Russia, moreso, in Western Pacific.

China so elevated in 'Power Stature' is likely to become more aggressive on its peripheries from Idia to Western Pacific as Russia would no longer be in a position to counsel China for patience and restraint.

Conversely, China without the comprehensively "strong backup support" of Russia wakened in geopolitical and military stature may become more restrained in its military adventurism and brinkmanship in Indo Pacific.

In my assessment, it would be against President Xi Jinping's demonstrated character and propensities to deviate from his stated objective of "Great China Dream"   and adopt a trajectory of reconciliation and responsible politics with China's Neighbours stretching from India to Japan and South Korea.

Concluding, with such dynamics in play, the impact of Russia's post-Ukraine strategic diminution, will induce greater polarization in Indo Pacific against China.

 The above is already underway noticeably with South Korea and Philippines returning to the United States strategic fold after some years of flirtation with China. Australia too even with change of political power has indicated its continued strong commitment to US-led Indo Pacific Security Template put into place to counter the disruptive China Theat.