CHINA AND RUSSIA EMERGE AS MAJOR THREATS TO INDO PACIFIC SECURITY POST-UKRAINE EUSSIAN INVASION.

 Indo Pacific strategic calculus in terms of regional security and stability has undertaken a major shift post-Ukraine invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2002 wherein Russia as a latent threat now emerges as a 'Major Threat' compulsively added to the pervasive China Threat in play more markedly since 2013.

The China-Russia Axis was already in play in various shades, hues, and combinations in the Indo Pacific Region. Post-Ukraine Invasion, the strategic and economic dependency of Russia stands greatly increased.

Russia has no options left post-Ukraine but to embrace China strategically fully and to ditto and underwrite China's predatory aggressive moves in IndoPacific.

The Russia Threat has not manifested itself in terms of massing of military formations on the Pacific littoral but has manifested itself in stark geopolitical terms with enhanced confrontationist stances against United States and hardening of policy attitudes towards Japan.

With India, despite India making great efforts to keep its traditional relations with Russia, the old flavor stands lost. Russia along with China resent India tilting strategically towards the United States.

In strategic terms, while Rusia may not be in military adversarial mode with India, but it can be said with certainty that Russia is no longer a "countervailing asset' for India against China.

Russia, has lately, increasingly participated with China in military, naval and air-force joint exercises. Notably Russian Air Force combat aircraft have participated in Joint Air Patrols with Chinese Air Force in close proximity of Japan and South Korea---both strong Allies of the United States hosting US Forward Military Presence in their territories.

Russia has so far not condemned increased North Korea's ballistic missile tests overflying Japan as China's proxy in the Region.

The crucial question that now arises from this Russian pattern above is whether Russia will actively participate in any inevitable US-China armed conflict?

Going by present indicators with Russia weakened militarily and economically, chances of Russia actively fighting alongside China in a US-China armed conflict are remote. However, Russia opening a second front in the European Theatre to lessen US & Allies military pressure on China in the Western Pacific cannot be ruled out.

Concluding, in the overall context, Russia as a Major Threat alongside China as partner in the China-Russia Axis will continue to figure in Threat Perceptions in the strategic calculations of United States and the West both in the Indo Pacific context and in the European context.

This perception gets reinforced by the fact that both China and Russia are ruled by Communist dictators, wherein both have shown scant respect for international conventions and a Rules-based international order. South China Sea predatory moves by China and Ukraine Invasion by Russia are pointers to unpredictable aggressive impulses of China's and Russia's present rulers.