CHINA AND RUSSIA EMERGE AS MAJOR THREATS TO INDO PACIFIC SECURITY POST-UKRAINE EUSSIAN INVASION.

 Indo Pacific strategic calculus in terms of regional security and stability has undertaken a major shift post-Ukraine invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2002 wherein Russia as a latent threat now emerges as a 'Major Threat' compulsively added to the pervasive China Threat in play more markedly since 2013.

The China-Russia Axis was already in play in various shades, hues, and combinations in the Indo Pacific Region. Post-Ukraine Invasion, the strategic and economic dependency of Russia stands greatly increased.

Russia has no options left post-Ukraine but to embrace China strategically fully and to ditto and underwrite China's predatory aggressive moves in IndoPacific.

The Russia Threat has not manifested itself in terms of massing of military formations on the Pacific littoral but has manifested itself in stark geopolitical terms with enhanced confrontationist stances against United States and hardening of policy attitudes towards Japan.

With India, despite India making great efforts to keep its traditional relations with Russia, the old flavor stands lost. Russia along with China resent India tilting strategically towards the United States.

In strategic terms, while Rusia may not be in military adversarial mode with India, but it can be said with certainty that Russia is no longer a "countervailing asset' for India against China.

Russia, has lately, increasingly participated with China in military, naval and air-force joint exercises. Notably Russian Air Force combat aircraft have participated in Joint Air Patrols with Chinese Air Force in close proximity of Japan and South Korea---both strong Allies of the United States hosting US Forward Military Presence in their territories.

Russia has so far not condemned increased North Korea's ballistic missile tests overflying Japan as China's proxy in the Region.

The crucial question that now arises from this Russian pattern above is whether Russia will actively participate in any inevitable US-China armed conflict?

Going by present indicators with Russia weakened militarily and economically, chances of Russia actively fighting alongside China in a US-China armed conflict are remote. However, Russia opening a second front in the European Theatre to lessen US & Allies military pressure on China in the Western Pacific cannot be ruled out.

Concluding, in the overall context, Russia as a Major Threat alongside China as partner in the China-Russia Axis will continue to figure in Threat Perceptions in the strategic calculations of United States and the West both in the Indo Pacific context and in the European context.

This perception gets reinforced by the fact that both China and Russia are ruled by Communist dictators, wherein both have shown scant respect for international conventions and a Rules-based international order. South China Sea predatory moves by China and Ukraine Invasion by Russia are pointers to unpredictable aggressive impulses of China's and Russia's present rulers.

JAPAN DOUBLES ITS DEFENCE BUDGET TO COPE WITH ENHANCED CHINA THREAT PERCEPTIONS & POST-UKRAINE LESSONS

Japanese PM Kishida rightly described December 16, 2022, as a "Turning Point" in Japan's national security and defence policies when he announced doubling of Japan's Defence Budget from decades-old limit of 1% of GDP to 2% of GDP in response to enhanced China Threat perceptions and military lessons post-Ukraine invasion by Russia.

Japanese PM Kishida unveiled a $ 320 Billion Five Year Plan which would make Japan the world's third largest military spender. 

Japanese Armed Forces were already a potent military force, but its radius of action was self-imposed to immediate defence of Japanese Islands.

Japan's new National Defense Strategy will impart Japanese Armed Forces with conventional 'Second Strike' Capabilities against China.

Japan's enhanced China Threat perceptions have arisen from China's military intimidation of Taiwan and open display of military might by intrusions in airspace and waters around Taiwan.

China has been indulging in submarines and Chinese Navy ships intrusions in Japanese waters. 

In Japanese Threat Perceptions, China's military occupation of Taiwan coupled with China's Full Spectrum Dominance of South China Sea would be strangling Japan's lifelines of energy supplies and trade.

Post-Ukraine invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Japan has drawn tow important military lessons (1) Russia has set a wrong precedent of unprovoked invasion of a smaller neighbor, and which precedent may encourage China not only for military occupation of Taiwan but also Chinese military occupation of disputed Japanese Senkaku Islands.

The second major lesson that Japan has drawn post-Ukraine is that Japan must now militarily be prepared for a prolonged conflict and have military infrastructure and logistics sustainability for prolonged warfare.

Japan's new major military spending doubled to unprecedented levels therefore caters for the twin challenges of (1) Enhanced offensive military capabilities and 'counter-strike' capabilities against its perceived enemies, and (2) Rapid buildup of military logistics infrastructure and WWR (War Wastage Reserves) of holdings of reserve stocks of weapons, military equipment and ammunition to fight and militarily sustain the Armed Forces in event of prolonged conflict.

Reflecting Japan's new resolve to meet enhanced new threats to Japanese security, Japan released three important Documents (1) National Security Strategy (2) National Defense Strategy, and (3) Defense Forces Development Plans.

Surprisingly, reports indicate that nearly 70% of Japanese public supports Japan raising its military preparedness. This is a marked departure from the past normally pacifist inclinations of Japanese public.

The only vociferous opposition to Japan's doubling of defence expenditure has emanated from China which has accused Japan of whipping up regional tensions as pretext to breakthroughs in defence spending. Surely, Japan's acquisition of 'Counter Strike ' capabilities would have a

rattled China.

Concluding, it needs emphasis that Japanese Defence Buildup to credible proportions against enlarging China Threat was overdue. China itself has to blame for pushing Japan in this direction.

In terms of overall Indo Pacific security, Japan's enhanced defence buildup and assertive security profile would impose a cautionary deterrent to China's unrestrained aggressiveness in the region.

'THE SAMURAI HAS ARISEN!!!