UNITED STATES- JAPAN-SOUTH KOREA SECURITY TRILATERAL CRYSTALLISING IN 2022

Geopolitical realities unfolding in Indo Pacific in wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China Threat of Taiwan invasion, Russia-China Axis solidifying and North Korea as China's nuclear proxy destabilizing the Korean Peninsula with repeated missiles tests has forcefully dawned on South Korea the imperatives of regional security resting on a US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral.

US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral was a Strategic Imperative even in Cold War I when Russia Threat was at its peak. In Cold War II, China Threat to Indo Pacific has emerged in more menacing contours surpassing the erstwhile Russia Threat. 

Geopolitical and strategic imperatives are therefore more pressing in 2022 closing weeks for speedy integration and operationalization of the US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral.

Initial moves in this direction were visible from November 2022 onwards with Defense Ministers and senior military officials from the three countries holding consultations.

It needs to be recalled that the United States has Bilateral Secuity Treaties with Japan and South Korea. The missing piece in this security geometry in Western Pacifici was an integrated US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral.

For decades, the resistance to this pressing triangular security mechanism stemmed from South Korea opposing it for no other good reason than perceived historical wrongs of South Korea over Japanese colonial rule over South Korea in the last century.

South Korea's reluctance in the past also arose from China being able to drive a wedge in Japan-South Korean relations t suit its strategic ends. In this direction China's economic inducements to South Krea were manipulated by China.

Fortunately, the situation has changed with the Conservative President Yoon taking over the reins of power in Seoul this year. President Yoon realized that South Korean policies of past Presidents of 'Reconciliation' with North Korea had failed miserably when contextually viewed against North Korea's blatant military provocations in the last one year.

Analytically, lurking in South Korea's new policy calculations of positive approach towards a US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral would be the stark realization that China despite professions of friendship towards Soth Korea had not actively restrained North Korea - its satellite, from aggressive provocations against South Korea, leaving Japan aside.

Perceptionaly, it appears that China wanted North Korea to intensify its aggressive provocations of missile firings post-Ukraine War by Russia. It suited China in diversion of attention from its Taiwan military adventurism and also US sole strategic focus on assisting Ukraine against Russia 

South Korea too like United States and Japan has significant stakes in security and stability of Western Pacific and South China Sea which China has disrupted with its aggressive moves.

Concluding, in interests of overall Indo Pacific security considerations, Western Pacific security and more specifically stability and security of the Korean Peninsula, the crystallization of the US-Japan-South Korea Security Trilateral needs to be welcomed as a mature security imperative well recognized.

INDIAN NAVY CHIEF'S SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE AT QUAD NAVAL CHIEFS SUMMIT MEET IN TOKYO NOVEMBER 2022

 Significantly strategic messaging stood conveyed by Indian Navy Chief Admiral Harikumar's presence in the opticals of the four Naval Chiefs of QUAD Navies posing together in a formal photograph of the QUAD Naval Chiefs Summit in Tokyo, Japan on November 05, 2022.

Significant it was, as if memory serves me correctly, this was the first time that a Naval Chiefs of QUAD Nations has taken place.

Significant strategically, was the conflictual backdrop of Indo Pacific prevailing turbulent security environment induced by China's saber-rattling over Taiwan, Chinese satellite North Korea's proxy missiles firings across Japan and the overhang of Russia Invasion of Ukraine casting shadows on IndoPacific security.

In a strategic triple whammy, which would not have gone unnoticed in Beijing, the QUAD Naval Chiefs Summit in Tokyo also coincided with Japan's Internatinal Fleet Review, commencement of the 'Malabar Navl Exercises' in Japanese seas of QUAD Navies and the Western Pacific Naval Symposium.

The Indian Naval Chief 's presence was scheduled at all these events.

Significantly, in my assessments over decades, is the reality that while Chinese Navy may be numerically stronger in numbers of Navy combatant ships, but the Japanese Navy is "Qualitatively Superior" and more powerful than the Beijing's Chinese Navy.

When QUAD Navy Chiefs main theme of discussion focusses on "Interoperability" then the strategic message should be amply clear. They had not met in Tokyo for a garden party! 

Humanitarian and disaster relief missions overplayed by Indian diplomacy are overshadowed by the real intent of QUAD when it was resurrected in 2017. The real intent is checkmating China and the maritime threats that China poses in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Concluding, it needs to be stressed that India must invest more heavily on the strategic intents of QUAD Nations and make it more potent in naval terms. It should not be forgotten, as I have stressed in my writings and even on TV Channels, that India can keep the Indian Ocean as "Indian" against China's naval depredations only with deep collaboration of QUAD Nations Navies. 

In overall pursuance of India's national security interests, India should now refrain from de-emphasizing of QUAD's real strategic intent. The QUAD Naval Chiefs Summit meet in Tokyo seems to be the first step in that direction.

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