"QUAD"S SALIENCE FROM SECURITY GROUPING TO GEOPOLITICAL CONSTRUCT ALARMS CHINA CONSIDERABLY

China noticeably in recent weeks stands alarmed considerably after the Virtual QUAD Summit of top political  leaders added enlarged  geopolitical contours spanning wider domains to its earlier intended construct as a mere security grouping.

In doing so the QUAD's apex political leaders of the United States, India, Japan and Australia have robbed China of its strident criticism that the QUAD was a military grouping aimed at China and dividing the Indo Pacific into ColdWar divides.

The QUAD's main intended purpose of integrating the Navies of the QUAD Nations through institutionalised mechanisms to provide existential deterrence to China's aims of dominating the Western Pacificand similar long term of the Indian Ocean remains unchanged.

The new construct being given to the QUAD envisages widening and extending QUAD Naations cooperation to Cybersecurity, Terrorism and  Diasaster Relief.

More noticeably, QUAD Nations are venturing into the economic field cooperation by Supply Chain Resilience Initiative whose main aim is to replace China-centric supply chains dependence  by alternative supply chains.

The above would greatly dilute China's economic power to strategically exploit economically weaker nations and so also China's economic strengths. 

While geopolitical constructs will impart to the QUAD contours other than a mere military grouping  but essentially the core aim remains China-containment, even though not stated so bluntly.

Significantly, the QUAD's widening its scope to one of an overall geopolitical construct would make it easier for a country like India to a more active and salient participation as a pivotal pillar of the QUAD.

Addedly this enalargement of cooperation aims could make it easier for other Indo PacificNations to join the QUAD who otherwise did not seem to be seen on he opposing side of a China-contaiment divide.

Concluding, it  needs to be highlighted that instead of allaying China's fears the trnasformation of the QUAD has raised more pronounced alarms in China going by latest pronouncements of Chinese Premier, Foreign Minister and official spokespersons. 

 

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INDO PACIFIC NATIONS INTENSELY POLARISED AGAINST CHINA

China in 2021 finds itself in the unenviable position of facing at her dorsteps an intensely polarised Indo Pacific security environment ranged against China. China has itself to blame for generating this polarisation with its own acts of wanton disreagrd of its neigbours sovereignties and China's imperialistic impulses of a 'Revisionist Power'. 

China as I always have maintained in my writins for last two decades has no 'Natural Allies' to boast of, with exception of North Korea and Pakistan, whose authoritarian regimes have been beholden to China for assisting them in creation of their Nuclear Weapons arsenal and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles arrsenal.

China in 2021 is visibly in open confrontation with the United States as the reigning Superpower with legitimate vital security interests in th Western Pacific which provide the Outer Perimeter of defence and security of Homeland United States.

Chinna has tried over the last decade to perpetuate a myth in Indo Pacific that the United States is a "Declining Power' and incapable of being a Nett Provider of security of Indo Pacific.

China succeeded in this direction for some time as the United States stood strategically distracted by its military interventions in Iraq earlier and Afghanistan thereafter.

With the advent of  Chinese President Xi Jinping in power in 2013, China emerged markedly as a Major Power intent on two aims of attaining 'Strategic Equivalence' with United States and emerge as the Second Pole in the global security calculus and in the proces also ensure that the United States exits the Western Pacific.

The Uited States belatedly woke up to the above strategic realities and US President Trump set the American ball rolling in terms of US-China Tad Wars and revamping the US Forward Military Presnce in Indo Pacific.

President Biden too has also opted to pursue United States 'Hard Line' policies against China belying Chinese expectations to the contray

Tangentially, India which has had a conflictual history with China and was not openly inclined to be seen in any containment mode of China has since 2017 veered arond to join the QUAD grouping of United States, Japan,and Australia.

Similarly ASEAN which had amjor fence-sitters  watching the evolving US-China Great Game in Indo Pacific and dithered when China illegally occupied Vietnam's and Philippines' Islands are awakening up to the harsh reality that China afterall is not a benign stakeholder in regional security.

More notably, China's military expansionism and scant regard for international norms and conventions while scrambling to emerge as a Sperpower has raised strategic hackles as far as NATO and the Euopean Union.

NATO and European Union's Major Powers have not only expressed security concerns on China's miliary  brinkmanship in Indo Pacific but have asserted that their Navies will  make a presence in the South China Sea along with QUAD Navies,

Significantly therefore, in mid-2021 the security environment of the Indo Pacific stands marked by an intense polarisation of Indo Pacific nations ranged against China in which NATO and European Union nations are also joining-in.

China does not seem to be far perurbed by this polarisation at the moment but this polarisation carries serious implications for China in terms of a major armed conflict i Indo Pacific, in which China cannot hope to come out as a victor.

CHINA'S PROPENSITY FOR DISRUPTIVE STRATEGIES TARGETTING INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN FULL DISPLAY 2021

 China' s traditional propensity for inflicting its disruptive strategies targetting Indo Pacific security has been in full display in 2021, more noticeably in the last two months, when it became apparent to China that the United Sates under new President Joe Biden is in no mood to deviate from outgoing Trump Administration's 'Hard Line'policies on China.

China's bid to disrupt Indo Pacific security currently is in full operation.

Most noticeably, China has put into full operation its military provocative activities against Taiwan whose spitited defiance of China's threats to effect Taiwan's unification with Mainland China by military force is not bearing fruit. In 2021, Taiwan emerges as the most explosive conflictual flash-point between China and he UnitedStates.

 China has ratcheted tensions with its military coercive military activities around Japan's Senkaku Islands, nuclear submarines prowling in seas around Japan and combat air patrols over Sea of Japan.

Philippines islands/reefs claimed by China  as its own have been surrounded by swarms of Chinese ships which China claims are fishing vessels.

Vietnam is also under similar coercion  pressure of Chinese military activities around Vietnamese islands claimed by China.

China after its unilateral willingness to disengage from military confrontation with India in Eastern Ladakh has now after initial reasonableness has dug in its heels for more substantial disengagement to keep threshold of armed conflict low.China is stalling military & diplomatic ongoing dialogues.

What is China aiming at? Does China feel that it can militarily get the better of the United States in any potential conflict or get the better of the evolving QUAD grouping? Does China feel that it can drive wedges between the United States and Japan and India?

China's main aim is not to get into full blown military conflict with the United States and its Allies nor does China want to get into full blown military conflicts with Japan or India. China is aware that such full blown military conflicts will disrupt Chinese economic  growth and further has prospects of a wider military conflagration to China's military disadvantage.

China's major aim of inflicting disruptive strategies on Indo Pacific security is to 'Win the Battle of Perceptions'  where China while keeping the military conflictual 'presure cooker' simmering gets away by geopolitically and strategically denting United States image in Indo Pacific capitals as still engaged in 'Risk Aversion' policies and incapable of effective retaliation against China's disruptive strategies.

China thus believes that it can perpetuate the perception that the United States is a "Power on he Decline."